feeder cattle market update - alberta.cadepartment/deptdocs.nsf/... · 2019-04-12 · cad / west...
TRANSCRIPT
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Feeder Cattle Market Update
1
© 2016 AgriClear, All Rights Reserved.
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• Have stressed over when to sell your calves…especially this past fall?
• Have hoped to capture more value for your calves…especially with the additional costs you have invested in
them?
• Wished you had more marketing options?
Let’s talk… How many of you…
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We’ll talk more about how AgriClear can
help, but first…
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• Review of the 2015 Canadian Feeder Market
• Review of the 2015 U.S. Feeder Market
• When has (historically) been the best time to sell your cattle?
• Changes in feeder cattle marketing
• Overview of AgriClear
Agenda
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Feeder Market Dynamics - CA
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Canadian Dollar Decline
Source: XE Currency Charts (CAD/USD)
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CAD / West Texas Intermediate – 0.89 r2
0.0000
0.2000
0.4000
0.6000
0.8000
1.0000
1.2000
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
Can
adia
n D
olla
r
WTI
WTI Canadian Dollar
Source: CanFax / CME
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Canadian 550 Wt. Feeder Steer – CAD
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec
2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: CanFax
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Canadian 550 Wt. Feeder Steer – USD
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
$220.00
$240.00
$260.00
$280.00
$300.00
01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec
2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: CanFax
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The elastic band stretched too far…
Source: Canfax, Feb. 2016
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Fed Cattle Exports to U.S.
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Feedlot – Profit/Loss Margin (Yearling Steer)
Source: CanFax
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Feeder Supply Outlook – U.S.
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U.S. Beef Cow Inventory
2014
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Heifer Retention & Cow Culling
as % of Jan1 U.S. Cow Herd
Source: Dr. Durrell Peel, USDA, NASS
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U.S. Jan 1 Beef Cow Inventory
Source: Dr. Durrell Peel, USDA, NASS
US beef replacement heifers expected to calve 3.9 million hd. Canada’s total beef cow inventory…3.8 million hd.
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Kansas Feedyards Net Returns ($/hd.)
Source: AgManager (as of December, 2015)
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Jan 1 U.S. Feeder Supply (residual outside feedlots)
Source: LMIC, USDA
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Historical LC Volatility Analysis
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CME Locked Limit
31
9
1
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S&P 500® / Live Cattle Futures – 0.85 r2
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
S&P
50
0
S&P 500 LC Futures
Sources: CME, CBOE, S&P Dow Jones Indices
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Feeder Cattle Marketing
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When has (historically) been the best time to
sell your cattle?
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Avg. Weekly Fed Cattle Price – 1992-2015
01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec
Source: CanFax
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Oct / Dec Live Cattle Futures - Historical
October LC
December LC
Source: Moore Research Report
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-0.0600
-0.0500
-0.0400
-0.0300
-0.0200
-0.0100
0.0000
0.0100
0.0200
0.0300
0.0400
0.0500
0.0600
0.0700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5/6 Feeder 7/8 Feeder
Fed Cattle Long-term Profitability by Feeder
Placement Month (1992-2015)
Calves
Back-grounded
Calves
Most Profitable
Source: David Moss
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90.00%
95.00%
100.00%
105.00%
110.00%
01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec
5-6 Weight 7-8 Weight 8-9 Weight
Indexed Feeder Cattle Prices (1992-2015)
Source: CanFax
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The feeder market is changing…rapidly…
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Time
The Market is Differentiating
Phenotypical / Grid Fit
Preconditioned / Herd Health Program
Certifications / i.e. Verified Beef Production
Channel Marketing
2012 Study
$11/cwt.≈
$60/hd.
Traditional Selling
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Feeder Cattle Sold at Alberta Auction Markets as a % of
Total Feeder Supplies
48.43%
45.85%
47.57% 47.65%
43.88%
41.04%
39.45%
34.98%
38.37%
36.64%
34.80%
30.00%
32.00%
34.00%
36.00%
38.00%
40.00%
42.00%
44.00%
46.00%
48.00%
50.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AB. Auction Feeder Inspections / AB. Feeder Inventory
Auction Feeder Inspections / Feeder Inventory
Source: Livestock Identification Services / Stats Can
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So how can you access these channels?
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AgriClear is a secure web-based marketing platform that connects North American Cattle Producers.
Producers can now list, transact, and be assured of payment from their computer, smartphone, or tablet.
AgriClear lets you market to anyone, anywhere, anytime – with confidence
Empowering buyers and sellers!
What is AgriClear?
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Who are we?
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Introduction to TMX Group
Major TMX
Shareholders
AIMCo
La Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
CIBC
CPP Investment Board
Desjardins
Fonds de solidarité FTQ
Manulife
National Bank
Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan
Scotiabank
TD
This platform is unique because of its partnership with TMX Group and NGX, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TMX, bringing together a wide array of knowledge and expertise. TMX Group’s businesses operate cash and derivative markets, including Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, Montreal Exchange and NGX, provider of electronic trading, central counterparty clearing and data services to the North American natural gas and electricity markets.
TMX also provides clearing facilities, data products and other services to the international financial community. Backed by the financial support and clearing expertise of these two entities, you are assured of receiving payment for delivered
cattle and receiving cattle as negotiated.
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• Leading regulated exchange and clearinghouse for physical energy
commodities across North America
– Provider of electronic trading, central counterparty clearing and data
services to North American natural gas, electricity and crude oil
markets
– Manages over $2B in collateral holdings
– No clearinghouse defaults since inception in 1994, including major
failures, such as Enron and Lehman Brothers
– Comprehensive Enterprise Risk Management framework in place to
manage strategic operational and financial risks
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We knew enough to know…we don’t know
Industry Advisory GroupSeed Stock
Commercial Herds
BackgroundersOrder Buyers
Finishers Packers
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So how does AgriClear work?
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AgriClear Transactional Process
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AgriClear Transactional Process…cont.
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Benefits to You
Cost Savings
Lower cost structure at $6/head/side, with no registration or listing fee(s).
Expanded Marketplace
Access to a broader network of buyers and sellers.
Attribute Based Marketing
Ability to capture more value from your genetic and/or management inputs.
Reduced Payment Risk
Market across North America with financial certainty.
40
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Let’s take a walk through the platform…
https://transact.agriclear.com/login/
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Registration
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Platform Dashboard
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Search Results
44
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Create Listing
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Additional Listing Details
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For Sale Listing
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Counter Offer
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SOLD!
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Contract
50
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Deposit Paid / Free to Ship
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Received
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Complete
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Feedback
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AgriClear Marketing
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agriclear.com
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AgriClear Advertising Campaign
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Social Media Sites
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Why AgriClear?
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Why AgriClear?
As an industry, we need a more efficient,
secure, and empowering way to buy and
sell cattle.
– Buy and sell on your terms;
– Take control of your cattle marketing; and
– Join the over 1,000 producers who make up the
AgriClear Community!
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AGRICLEAR LETS YOU
MARKET YOUR CATTLE
TO ANYONE, ANYWHERE,
ANYTIME — WITH
CONFIDENCE.
www.agriclear.com