FDR & The FDR & The Road to WarRoad to War

                                                       

Ionia Workshop 2011Ionia Workshop 2011Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.William Jewell CollegeWilliam Jewell College

Franklin D. RooseveltFranklin D. RooseveltPresident 1933-1945President 1933-1945

1882-19451882-1945 Groton, Harvard, and started Groton, Harvard, and started

Columbia Law (but passed bar)Columbia Law (but passed bar) Navy ManNavy Man Assistant Secretary of Navy Assistant Secretary of Navy

under President Woodrow Wilsonunder President Woodrow Wilson Polio, 1921Polio, 1921 Governor of New York, 1929-33Governor of New York, 1929-33 Depression & New DealDepression & New Deal Historical Party RealignmentHistorical Party Realignment Maps, Maps, MapsMaps, Maps, Maps

Depression: GDPDepression: GDP

Depression: UnemploymentDepression: Unemployment

19331933 25%25%19341934 22%22%19351935 20%20%19361936 17%17%19371937 14%14%19381938 19%19%19401940 10%10%19421942 5%5%19431943 2%2%

Map: Pacific WW2Map: Pacific WW2

German Conquests, July 1940German Conquests, July 1940

Tripartite PactTripartite PactSept 27 1940Sept 27 1940

ARTICLE 1. Japan recognizes and respects the ARTICLE 1. Japan recognizes and respects the leadership of Germany and Italy in the establishment of leadership of Germany and Italy in the establishment of a new order in Europe.a new order in Europe.

ARTICLE 2. Germany and Italy recognize and respect ARTICLE 2. Germany and Italy recognize and respect the leadership of Japan in the establishment of a new the leadership of Japan in the establishment of a new order in Greater East Asia.order in Greater East Asia.

ARTICLE 3. Japan, Germany, and Italy agree to ARTICLE 3. Japan, Germany, and Italy agree to cooperate in their efforts on aforesaid lines. They cooperate in their efforts on aforesaid lines. They further undertake to assist one another with all political, further undertake to assist one another with all political, economic and military means if one of the Contracting economic and military means if one of the Contracting Powers is attacked by a Power at present not involved Powers is attacked by a Power at present not involved in the European War or in the Japanese-Chinese conflictin the European War or in the Japanese-Chinese conflict

FDR Moves to WarFDR Moves to War June 1940: Fall of FranceJune 1940: Fall of France April 1941: FDR attacks Charles LindberghApril 1941: FDR attacks Charles Lindbergh August 1941: FDR meets Churchill at sea – Atlantic August 1941: FDR meets Churchill at sea – Atlantic

Charter and promise to send US Navy against u-boatsCharter and promise to send US Navy against u-boats Sept 11, 1941: FDR publicly orders US Navy to attack Sept 11, 1941: FDR publicly orders US Navy to attack

German u-boats on sightGerman u-boats on sight Oct 1941: Navy Day Speech and “Brazil Map”Oct 1941: Navy Day Speech and “Brazil Map” Nov 1941: Congress amends Neutrality ActNov 1941: Congress amends Neutrality Act Public Opinion SurveysPublic Opinion Surveys Dec 1941: “Rainbow 5” War Plan leakedDec 1941: “Rainbow 5” War Plan leaked

Thomas BaileyThomas Bailey

A president who cannot entrust the people A president who cannot entrust the people with the truth betrays a certain lack of with the truth betrays a certain lack of faith in the basic tenets of democracy. But faith in the basic tenets of democracy. But because the masses are notoriously because the masses are notoriously shortsighted and generally cannot see shortsighted and generally cannot see danger until it is at their throats, our danger until it is at their throats, our statesmen are forced to deceive them into statesmen are forced to deceive them into an awareness of their own long-run an awareness of their own long-run interests. This is clearly what Roosevelt interests. This is clearly what Roosevelt had to do, and who shall say that posterity had to do, and who shall say that posterity will not thank him for it?will not thank him for it?

Joseph PersicoJoseph Persico

“The answer clearly lies in FDR’s underlying objective. He wanted U-boats attacked. He wanted America in the fight. And if someone handed him documents that strengthened his case, he was not about to scrutinize them to death.”

Persico on Brazil PlotPersico on Brazil PlotThe intriguing question is why all this suspect The intriguing question is why all this suspect

intelligence – reports of Nazi troops in South intelligence – reports of Nazi troops in South America, a forged letter predicting a Nazi America, a forged letter predicting a Nazi takeover of Bolivia, a suspicious map, a takeover of Bolivia, a suspicious map, a manipulated version of the manipulated version of the GreerGreer incident – incident – found its way into the speeches of the President found its way into the speeches of the President of the United States. The answer clearly lies in of the United States. The answer clearly lies in FDR’s underlying objective. He wanted U-boats FDR’s underlying objective. He wanted U-boats attacked. He wanted America in the fight. And attacked. He wanted America in the fight. And if someone handed him documents that if someone handed him documents that strengthened his case, he was not about to strengthened his case, he was not about to scrutinize them to death.”scrutinize them to death.”

Joe Persico, Joe Persico, Roosevelt’s Secret War, Roosevelt’s Secret War, 20012001

Joseph PersicoJoseph Persico

Piercing the ReichPiercing the Reich (1979)(1979)

Roosevelt’s Secret Roosevelt’s Secret WarWar (2001) (2001)

1111thth hour, 11 hour, 11thth day, 11day, 11thth month month (2004)(2004)

Asian SituationAsian Situation

Oct 1940: Japan joins Axis Oct 1940: Japan joins Axis • Art 3 of Tri-Partite Pact: Japan, Germany, Art 3 of Tri-Partite Pact: Japan, Germany,

Italy promise to assist Italy promise to assist if one attacked by a if one attacked by a power “not at present involved”power “not at present involved” in either in either European or Asian warEuropean or Asian war

• Note: Hitler may have agreed to revision of Note: Hitler may have agreed to revision of Tripartite Pact on December 4 (Kershaw, Tripartite Pact on December 4 (Kershaw, Hitler: Nemesis)Hitler: Nemesis)

July 1941: Japanese Government falls, new July 1941: Japanese Government falls, new government pledged to expansiongovernment pledged to expansion

July 1941: Japan occupies French Indo-ChinaJuly 1941: Japan occupies French Indo-China

Japan’s Strategic SituationJapan’s Strategic Situation

Quagmire: 700,000 Japanese troops Quagmire: 700,000 Japanese troops in Chinain China

Nightmare: Economics of Grand Nightmare: Economics of Grand StrategyStrategy

Relative Industrial PotentialRelative Industrial Potential(UK 1900 = 100)(UK 1900 = 100)

19281928 19381938

BritainBritain 135135 181181

USUS 533533 528528

FranceFrance 82 82 74 74

GermanyGermany 158158 214214

USSRUSSR 72 72 152152

JapanJapan 45 45 88 88

Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

General Hideki TojoGeneral Hideki Tojo

1884-19481884-1948 PM, Oct 1941-July 1944PM, Oct 1941-July 1944 Found guilty of war crimes, Found guilty of war crimes,

hanged in 1948 – only head of hanged in 1948 – only head of government executed for war government executed for war crimes in historycrimes in history……until Saddamuntil Saddam

Japan’s Negotiating Position, 1941Japan’s Negotiating Position, 1941

PLAN A: Comprehensive settlement.PLAN A: Comprehensive settlement. would agree to withdraw troops in two yJapan ears would agree to withdraw troops in two yJapan ears

from most of China.from most of China. But Japan could stay in parts of China for 25 years. But Japan could stay in parts of China for 25 years.    

Japan would withdraw from Indochina.Japan would withdraw from Indochina.

PLAN B: Minimally acceptable agreement:PLAN B: Minimally acceptable agreement: Japan pledges not to advance beyond French Japan pledges not to advance beyond French

Indochina.Indochina. US and Japan would cooperate in Dutch EI.US and Japan would cooperate in Dutch EI. US would restore trade.US would restore trade. US wouldn’t obstruct China-Japan attempts at peace.US wouldn’t obstruct China-Japan attempts at peace.

Map: Pacific WW2Map: Pacific WW2

Magic & PurpleMagic & Purple

Friedman’s crew breaks Friedman’s crew breaks Japanese diplomatic code, Japanese diplomatic code, summer 1940summer 1940

Summer 1940: US reading Summer 1940: US reading significant volume of JPN significant volume of JPN traffic in real timetraffic in real time

William F. Friedman

1891-1969

Justice Stevens, USN, 1941-45

Elizebeth Friedman

Japanese Fleet RouteJapanese Fleet Route

Robert StinnettRobert Stinnett

McCollum MemoMcCollum Memo

USS Salt Lake City

McCollum Memo

Intelligence & Pear HarborIntelligence & Pear Harbor 9/24/1941: Bomb Plot Message Intercepted9/24/1941: Bomb Plot Message Intercepted 11/25/1941: FDR & “War Council”11/25/1941: FDR & “War Council”

• Stimson Diary: Stimson Diary: “The question was how we should maneuver “The question was how we should maneuver them into the position of firing the first shot without allowing too them into the position of firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves.”much danger to ourselves.”

11/26/1941: Japanese fleet sorties11/26/1941: Japanese fleet sorties 11/15/1941: Army Chief of Staff General Marshall tells 11/15/1941: Army Chief of Staff General Marshall tells

reporters war will begin in first 10 days of Decemberreporters war will begin in first 10 days of December 11/27/1941: Admiral Stark at Pearl Harbor gives “war 11/27/1941: Admiral Stark at Pearl Harbor gives “war

warning” to US Pacific Fleetwarning” to US Pacific Fleet• Japan may attack Burma Road, Thailand, Malaya, Dutch E Japan may attack Burma Road, Thailand, Malaya, Dutch E

Indies, Philippines, Russian Maritime provincesIndies, Philippines, Russian Maritime provinces 12/5/1941: British cable “prediction” that Japan may 12/5/1941: British cable “prediction” that Japan may

attack Pearl Harborattack Pearl Harbor

Henry Stimson, Secretary of WarHenry Stimson, Secretary of WarGeorge C. Marshall, Chief of StaffGeorge C. Marshall, Chief of Staff

Admiral James O. RichardsonAdmiral James O. RichardsonFired by FDR for protesting basing Fired by FDR for protesting basing

of fleet at Pearl Harborof fleet at Pearl Harbor

War Warning to War Warning to General ShortGeneral Short27 Nov 194127 Nov 1941

To General Short

Negotiations with Japanese appear to be terminated to all practical purposes with only the barest possibilities that the Japanese Government might come back and offer to continue. Japanese future action unpredictable but hostile action possible at any moment. If hostilities cannot, repeat can not, be avoided the desires that commit the first overt act. This policy should not, repeat not, be construed as restricting you to a course of action at might jeopardize your defense. Prior to Japanese hostile action you are directed to undertake such reconnaissance and other measures as you deem necessary but these measures should be carried out so as not, repeat not, to alarm the civil population or disclose intent. Report measures taken. Should hostilities occur, you will carry out task signed in Rainbow Five as far as they pertain to . Limit dissemination of this highly secret information to minimum essential officers.

War Warning toWar Warning toAdmiral KimmelAdmiral Kimmel

27 Nov 194127 Nov 1941

Consider this dispatch a war warning. The negotiations with Consider this dispatch a war warning. The negotiations with Japan in an effort to stabilize conditions in the Pacific Japan in an effort to stabilize conditions in the Pacific have have endedended. Japan is expected to make aggressive move within . Japan is expected to make aggressive move within the next few days. the next few days. An amphibious expedition against either An amphibious expedition against either the Philippines, Thai, or Kra Peninsula or possibly Borneo is the Philippines, Thai, or Kra Peninsula or possibly Borneo is indicated by the number and equipment of Japanese troops indicated by the number and equipment of Japanese troops and the organization of their naval task forces.and the organization of their naval task forces. You will You will execute a defensive deployment in preparation for carrying execute a defensive deployment in preparation for carrying out the tasks assigned in WPL-46 only. out the tasks assigned in WPL-46 only. Guam, Samoa and Guam, Samoa and Continental Districts have been directed to take appropriate Continental Districts have been directed to take appropriate measures against sabotage. A similar warning is being sent measures against sabotage. A similar warning is being sent by the War Departmentby the War Department. Inform naval district and Army . Inform naval district and Army authorities. British to be informed by Spenavo.authorities. British to be informed by Spenavo.

Intelligence FailureIntelligence Failure

Splintered intelligence communitySplintered intelligence community ““Signals to noise” ratioSignals to noise” ratio Filter of Preconceived NotionsFilter of Preconceived Notions Over-confidenceOver-confidence Under-estimated enemyUnder-estimated enemy

Admiral YamamotoAdmiral Yamamoto

1884-19431884-1943 Served in Russo-Japan War, Served in Russo-Japan War,

1904-051904-05 Naval attaché in US 1925-28Naval attaché in US 1925-28 Killed in US aerial ambush, Killed in US aerial ambush,

April 1943April 1943

US LossesUS Losses

Ships SunkShips Sunk CasualtiesCasualtiesArizonaArizona 2,403 dead2,403 deadOkahomaOkahoma 1,178 wounded1,178 woundedCalifornia*California*West Virginia*West Virginia*

Aircraft:Aircraft: 188 destroyed/cannibalized188 destroyed/cannibalized120 damaged (80% salvaged)120 damaged (80% salvaged)

US Fleet Pre/Post PHUS Fleet Pre/Post PHChartChart

ArizonaArizona

OklahomaOklahoma