fanaf visit to lloyd’sfanaf.org/article_ressources/file/lloyds_presentation... · 2017. 7. 7. ·...
TRANSCRIPT
1 1 1
FANAF Visit to Lloyd’s
Time Activity Contact
14.00 Arrive at Lloyd’s Main Reception, registration
14.15 Tour of the Underwriting Room
15.00 Welcome
Cameron Murray, Regional Head [email protected]
15.15 Lloyd’s, Introduction to the Market
David Bendor, Senior Manager, Commercial [email protected]
15.45 The Underwriter’s perspective
Clive Magnus, CNA Hardy, Energy [email protected]
Eric Malterre, Axa Africa Specialty Risks, PV/terrorism [email protected]
16.15 The Broker’s perspective
Jai Rama, MAI Brokers, Overview [email protected]
Simon Gilbert, Elmore Insurance Brokers, Cyber [email protected]
16.45 Emerging Risks
Anna Bordon, Risk Analyst, Lloyd’s [email protected]
17.30 One Under Lime Verre d’amitié
© Lloyd’s
Agenda - 5 July 2017
© Lloyd’s
Le Lloyd’s en Afrique, au Moyen Orient
et en Turquie
FANAF
Cameron Murray
le 5 Juillet 2017
3 © Lloyd’s
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
China Rest ofAfrica
Mexico SouthAfrica
Brazil India Russia
Insurance Reinsurance
Afrique - le contexte Les primes du Lloyd’s suivent l’évolution du PIB, tandis que le chiffre d’affaires en Afrique (hors Afr du Sud) est
équivalent à celui de la Russie et de l’Inde combinés (et le deuxième après la Chine)
BRICS economies: Lloyd’s premium 2016
(mn US$) GSP, $ mn GDP, $ bn
Lloyd’s total premium in Africa (excl. S Africa)
against GDP growth, 2010-2016 GSP
$ mn
excl.
S Africa
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Africa GDP Africa GWP
4 © Lloyd’s
Conclusion: une région réunie Notre vision: des points d’accès stratégiques qui permettent au Lloyd’s d’accéder aux marchés clés
Lloyd’s Licences and Development Activities
Onshore Insurance and Reinsurance Licence Development
Onshore Insurance and Reinsurance Licence
Admitted reinsurer in Egypt
Office Development, Framework Agreement with DIFC
Strategic Analysis and Investigation
Morocco
Nigeria
Ghana
Turkey
Tanzania
South Africa/
Johannesburg
Namibia
Egypt
Dubai
Iran
Malawi Zambia
Zimbabwe
Botswana Mauritius
Saudi
Arabia
East African Community
CIMA: Conf. Interafricaine des Marchés d'Assurances
Lloyd’s rep
Market development
manager
Competition and Distribution in Africa
(Top 20 Markets, 2016)
Indicates a
competitor
(re)insurance
company
Indicates a
global broker
Le Lloyd’s Marché mondial spécialisé, leader de l’assurance et de la réassurance
Visite de la FANAF
David Bendor
Juillet 2017
Lloyd's - 2017
© Lloyd’s 2012
Bienvenue à la City – Londres est un centre mondial de l’assurance et de la réassurance
© Lloyd’s 2012
… où les courtiers jouent un rôle important
© Lloyd’s 2012
Vue panoramique
© Lloyd’s 2012
Chiffre d’affaires: Lloyd’s + London Company Market = £55 md
London company
market
£25 md
£30 md
Source: IUA, London Company Market Statistics Report, October 2014, figures refer to 2013
Deux fois plus grand que les Bermudes (Bermuda) et trois fois plus grand que la Suisse
© Lloyd’s 10
Éléments clés de l'histoire du Lloyd's
1688 1906 1920s
1990s 1999
2015
Les origines "coffee shop" Indemniser nos assurés pour
leurs pertes quels que soient
les termes de leurs polices”
Création du Fond Central
du Lloyd’s
Ouverture du hub du
Lloyd’s à Singapour
Ouverture des bureaux du
Lloyd’s à Dubaï
Reconstruction &
Renouveau avec Equitas
2000s
En 2011, £13Md de
sinistres dont le 11/09 et les
Cat Nat
© Lloyd’s 2012
Lloyd’s: une histoire d’innovation
1904 Lloyd’s issues
the first motor
policy
1911 Lloyd’s issues the first
aviation policy; insures first
transatlantic flight 1927
1965 Lloyd’s issues the first
satellite policy; 1984 sends
recovery mission into space
1971 Lloyd’s issues
the first political
risk policy
1990s Lloyd’s issues the
first cyber policies
2000s Lloyd’s explores
risk policies for drones and
driverless cars
© Lloyd’s 12
Fonctionnement du marché
Assurés
Courtiers
Coverholders
Service companies
Membres:
- Sociétés
- Individus 59 Managing agents
84 Syndicats
Corporation du Lloyd’s
FLUX D’AFFAIRES FLUX DE CAPITAUX
© Lloyd’s 13
Structure du Lloyd’s: points clés
Le Lloyd’s est une société de membres.
Le Lloyd’s est un marché d’assurance, et non pas une compagnie.
Le Lloyd’s opère et est contrôlé en tant qu’entité unique.
La <Corporation of Lloyd’s> veille sur le marché, et approuve les <business plans> des participants.
L’autorité de règlementation prudentielle (PRA) et l’Autorité de Conduite Financière (FCA) au Royaume-Uni contrôlent le Lloyd’s dans son ensemble.
© Lloyd’s 2012
Les syndicats du Lloyd’s Soutenus par des acteurs du marché de l’assurance mondiale
Source: Lloyd’s 2015 Annual Report
USA
Japan
Bermuda
UK
EU
Pourcentage du capital
0 5 10 15 20 25
USA
Bermuda
UK
Japan
Europe
Private capital
Rest of world
Non-insurance
Asia
2015
2016
© Lloyd’s 2012
Historique des syndicats - 1980-2016
437
405
150
95 84
192
153
60 57 59
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Syndicates Managing agents 2017 - 57 Managing agents
© Lloyd’s 16 16
16
Exemples de types de couvertures d’assurances proposés par le Lloyd’s
© Lloyd’s 17
…and an appetite for unusual risks requiring innovative solutions
►.. un appétit pour les risques qui nécessitent des solutions innovantes ..
…
© Lloyd’s 18
Le Lloyd’s par Branches en 2016
USA &
Canada
Autres
Ameriques
Grande
Bretagne
Reste de
l’Europe
Asie Centrale &
Asie Pacific
Reste du
Monde
Total toutes
régions
Réassurance 24% 70% 26% 32% 46% 63% 31%
Dommage 35% 7% 25% 18% 16% 8% 27%
Responsabilité 23% 12% 23% 20% 25% 11% 24%
Maritime 7% 5% 6% 18% 8% 7% 8%
Energie 7% 3% 9% 6% 2% 3% 4%
Auto 2% 1% 17% 2% 1% 3% 4%
Aviation 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 5% 2%
Total Primes br. 50% 7% 15% 14% 10% 4% 100%
Source: Lloyd’s 2016 Annual Report
Réassurance 31%
Dommage 27%
Responsabilités 24%
Maritime 8%
Energie 4%
Auto 4%
Aviation 2%
19 19 19
Le Lloyd’s: activité pas région
As of Annual Report 31 December 2016 - lloyds.com/annualreport2016
US & Canada
50% Europe
14%
Other
Americas
7%
Central
Asia & APAC
10% RoW
4%
United
Kingdom
15%
Lloyd’s insures people, businesses and communities in more than 200 countries and territories
2016 gross written
premium $
40bn
20 20 20
Notre réseau d’autorisations Lloyd’s trading rights: over 150 countries
Cross border reinsurance
Onshore coverholders (reinsurance)
Onshore insurance/reinsurance licence
US Cross border/onshore reinsurance and surplus lines insurance
Last updated July 2017
© Lloyd’s 21
Le Lloyd’s en Afrique de l’Ouest
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mali
Sierra Leone
Guinea
Togo
Burkina Faso
Senegal
Mauritania
Liberia
Ivory Coast
Tunisia
Morocco
Ghana
Algeria
Nigeria
West Africa: Reinsurance Premiums, US$ mn West Africa: Reinsurance Premiums, by Class
Energy 39%
Marine 15%
Aviation 16%
Specialty Other 12%
Property Treaty
8%
Casualty Other 4%
Accident & Health
3% Property (D&F)
2%
Casualty FinPro
1%
Casualty Treaty
0%
22 22 22
Solidité du marché du Lloyd’s
© Lloyd’s
La sécurité du marché
© Lloyd’s 2012
ROC 2010 – 2016 (RSC)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bénéfice avant impôts £
Md 2.2 (0.5) 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.1 2.1
Ratio combiné (%) 93.3 106.8 91.1 86.8 88.4 90.0 97.9
Retour sur
investissements (%) 2.6 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.2 0.8 2.2
Primes brutes £ Md 22.4 23.3 25.2 25.6 25.3 26.7 29.9
Capitaux et provisions
£Md 19.1 19.1 20.2 21.1 23.5 25.1 28.6
RSC avant impôts (%) 12.1 (2.8) 14.8 16.2 14.1 9.1 8.1
RSC avant impôts moyen sur 5 ans (%) 11.1% 10.4% 12.0%
Le Retour sur Capitaux a été de 8% sur les cinq dernières années
© Lloyd’s 2012
Une position favorable par rapport à nos confrères
Les ratios combinés
Lloyd’s vs competitor group Differential
Source: Competitor financial statements, 31 December 2016 and Lloyd’s pro forma financial statements, 31 December 2016.
Competitor group comprises of 11 companies operating in US, European & Bermudan markets: AIG, Arch, Chubb, Everest Re,
Hannover Re, Mapfre, Munich Re, Partner Re, SCOR, Swiss Re & XL Catlin
95.7%
92.8% 92.0%
94.7%
98.3%
91.1%
86.8%
88.4%
90.0%
97.9%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Competitor groupLloyd's
-4.6%
-6.0%
-3.6%
-4.7%
-0.4%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
© Lloyd’s 2012
La chaîne de sécurité du Lloyd’s
Toutes les primes perçues par un syndicat sont détenues en « trust » (fidéicommis) pour le paiement des sinistres subis par les assurés de ce syndicat
Chaque membre, qu’il soit investisseur institutionnel ou particulier, doit apporter un capital suffisant pour financer ses opérations de souscription au Lloyd’s
Les Actifs Centraux sont disponibles, à la discrétion du Conseil du Lloyd’s, pour le règlement de tout sinistre couvert qui, en amont de la chaîne, ne pourrait être satisfait par les ressources de quelque membre que ce soit.
Actifs séparés
Actifs mutualisés
Source: Lloyd’s Annual Report 2016
Notations du Lloyd’s
Standard & Poor’s A+ (fort)
A.M. Best A (excellent)
Fitch
AA - (très fort)
Premier lien
Deuxième lien
Troisième lien
La structure mutuelle garantit £2 md pour payer les sinistres, en cas de faillite
L’avenir du Lloyd’s
Vision 2025
© Lloyd’s
© Lloyd’s 27
Question: Où et quand?
© Lloyd’s 28
Vision 2025 En 2030, 40% des primes non-vie viendront des pays émergeant
Onshore Insurance and Reinsurance Development
Onshore Reinsurance Access Development
Office Development
Malaysia
Turkey
Tanzania
India
South Korea
Office
Dubai Office
Mexico Office
Colombia Office
New York
Labuan Singapore
Dubai
London
Shanghai Tokyo
© Lloyd’s 29
N’oublions pas le Brexit Lloyd’s crée un assureur à Bruxelles
Premiums
£1.8 bn premiums under threat
Total EEA business: £3.4bn
Licences
EU licences represent a large share
of 69 global insurance licences
Coverholders
451 Lloyd’s coverholders and service
companies in the EEA potentially
disenfranchised
Opportunity
European commercial insurance
premiums are forecast to grow at
2.6% CAGR to 2020 (KPMG)
© Lloyd’s 30
La modernisation du marché
Placing Platform Ltd (PPL)
Central Services Refresh Programme (CSRP)
Delegated Authority (DA)
Data Integration (DI)
Structured Data Capture (SDC)
I n n o v a t i o n
An electronic placing
platform which enables
brokers and insurers to
quote, negotiate and
bind business digitally.
Risks can be negotiated
and placed face to face
and electronically,
removing paper and
creating a digital
information and audit
trail.
Terrorism went live in
July 2016 followed by
Financial and
Professional Lines in
November 2016 and
Marine in March 2017.
At the end April 2017, 19
brokers and 80 carriers
were signed up, six
MGAs are live.
© Lloyd’s 32
Lloyd’s: risques émergeants
https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/library
http://www.lloyds.com/cityriskindex/
© Lloyd’s 33
https://www.lloyds.com/lloyds/offices/global-development-centre/video-content
34 34 34
Conclusion
© Lloyd’s
Expérience:
notre marché
regroupe un niveau
exceptionnel de
connaissances et
d’expériences en
matière
d’assurance
Fiabilité:
la Corporation du
Lloyd’s surveille la
performance du
marché et
développe de
solides ressources
en capitaux, à
partir desquels les
sinistres couverts
vont être réglés
Rentabilité:
même en
conditions difficiles,
le marché reste
rentable
35 35 35
Fin
Questions
© Lloyd’s
Clive Magnus
CNA Hardy
An Energy underwriter’s perspective
Presented by: Clive Magnus
July 2017
Upstream Energy at Lloyd’s
• Lloyd’s market dominance
– Approx 80% of global upstream insurance premium placed in London
– Of that approx 80% placed in Lloyd’s ie + 60% global market here
• Why:
– Energy is a highly volatile class requiring $bn’s of capacity
– Energy is a highly specialist class, needing expertise across many providers
– Energy is a highly sophisticated purchased product purchased by global
multinational entities
– Energy is a global product needing global licensing
What is Upstream Energy - coverage
We insure everything to do with the exploration
for and production of oil and gas onshore or
offshore • Coverage’s sold
– Physical damage
– Removal of Debris
– Loss of production
– Control of Well and redrill
– Liabilities
• Excess of $5bn any one loss exposed
What is Upstream Energy - Contractor book
Companies set up to supply the oil and gas
industry throughout the different phases of
exploration and production
• Contractors
– Seismic – exploration
– Drilling – exploration
– Installation – construction
– Servicing
• Unit values from $10m to $1bn
What is Upstream Energy - operators
The companies managing the exploration and
production and bringing product to market
• Operators
– Huge global multi nationals - Shell Exxon, BP
– Large National Oil Companies – NNPC, Pemex Petrobras
– Integrated oil and Gas companies - Chevron
– Small Independents
• Small platforms Gulf of Mexico to huge concrete monoliths built to withstand the harsh
environment North Sea to large FPSO’s offshore Africa
What is Upstream Energy - Construction
Once a resource field has been discovered we
insure the asset being built to exploit the field.
• Construction
– Pipelay 4” to 60”, shore approach to 2500m w.d
– Large 4000 tonne offshore lifts and floatovers
– Small caisson installation
What is Upstream Energy – Control of Well
Well blowing out of control either above ground
or underground and the costs to bring back
under control
• Control of well
– Onshore fracc’ing
– Conventional temperature and pressure offshore drilling
– Deepwater HP HT drilling
– Pre salt offshore Brasil
Perils – what can go wrong?
Fire / Explosion
Blow out
Marine Collision
Act of God – hurricanes / EQ
How do we underwrite – an Art or a science?!
Balance of trading, experience and market knowledge
Gross and Net considerations
Technical pricing
Loss Review reappriasal
Macro Vs Micro consideration – portfolio as a whole vs segment vs
individual account
Fixed cost considerations – cost of capital, RI cost, UW expense
Syndicate 382 at Lloyd’s
• In London we write Property, Casualty, Energy & Marine and Specialty
business on a global basis. We focus on the following lines of business:
• Property: D&F, Property Binders, Property Treaty, Engineering (CAR/EAR
and Power Generation)
• Casualty: EL & GL worldwide
• Energy: Upstream, Power Generation, Renewable
• Marine: Cargo & Specie, Marine Hull, Marine Liability, Transport & Logistics
• Specialty: Technology and Cyber, Financial Institutions, Healthcare
(Medical Malpractice and Life Sciences), Political Risk, Terrorism and
Political Violence
• We also participate on the Construction Consortium in London and Asia
which offers capacity to lead terms on major projects up to US$212.5m on a
Possible Maximum Loss basis. For more info visit
www.constructionatlloyds.com
Key Contacts
Clive Magnus
Senior Underwriter, Energy
+44 20 7105 3358
John Swann
Underwriter, Energy
+44 20 7105 3349
Carl Day
Head of Energy & Marine
+44 20 7105 3307
When it comes to business insurance…
We can show you more®.
CNA Insurance Company Limited (registered number 950) CNA Switchboard: +44 (0)20 7743 6800 Facsimile: +44 (0)20 7743 6801 Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the
Prudential Regulation Authority (number 202777) Hardy (Underwriting Agencies) Limited (registered number 1264271) Hardy Switchboard: +44 (0)20 7105 0382 Facsimile: +44 (0)20 7327 3615 Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority
and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (number 204843) CNA Services (UK) Limited (registered number 8836589) CNA Switchboard: +44 (0)20 7743 6800 Facsimile: +44 (0)20 7743 6801
The above companies are all registered in England with their registered office at 20 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 3BY. VAT registration number 667557779.
48
THE BROKER’S PERSPECTIVE
Jaï RAMA (MAI Re) 5th July 2017
49
MAI RE
MAI REINSURANCE BROKERS SIA (MAI RE) is a leading Reinsurance Broker in Emerging markets (especially Africa and CEE Region) for 25 years (1991-2016).
LLOYD’s BROKER – MAI RE is a Lloyd’s Broker.
GLOBAL BROKER – MAI RE places risks in Lloyd’s/UK Market, European markets, Middle East, SE Asia and Africa Markets.
OFFICES - Has 18 Partner offices in CEE Region, 8 Partner offices in Africa (Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya, Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique), 3 Partner offices in Middle East (UAE, Oman, Bahreïn).
TOMORROW – FANAF countries, mainly in Senegal, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Gabon.
50
MAI RE
Business and Markets Perspectives :
Risk Management
Reinsurance Treaties
Fac. Reinsurance
New Insurance Products &
Solutions
A Lloyd’s Broker must:
► Provide security
► Bring in business
► Process/transact
business
51
MAI RE
Business
production Direct
client
Insurer
Lloyd’s
Broker
Structure
Wording
Limits
Negotiation
Processing
Claims
Lloyd’s
Retail
broker
Wholesale
broker
Facilities
holder
Business flow diagram
Introduction to Cyber Insurance FANAF, London, 2017
Simon Gilbert http://elmorebrokers.com/cyber-insurance/
Insuring Vulnerabilities
54
Hacktivism…
For fun…
State sponsored… Criminal gangs…
Rogue employees… Human error…
Threat ‘Actors’
55
Malware…
Spear-phishing…
Code exploits… Ransomware…
Denial of Service… Unauthorised Access…
Types of Attack
Cyber Insurance ‘Triggers’
Security Failure
• malicious code, computer virus, or any form of malware
• unauthorized access, unauthorised use of network
• Denial of Service
Operation Failure
• operational employee error in handling data or upgrading systems or software
• fraudulent, dishonest, deceitful or malicious acts by employees
System Failure
• disruption to the normal provision of services which are related to the inoperability of Your Network
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-180 -90 0 1 2 3 5 7 10 18 20 24 26 28 30 60 90 120 210 240 300 365
TUR
NO
VER
ON
AN
ON
GO
ING
BA
SIS
($M
)
TIME FROM DISCOVERY OF CYBER EVENT (DAYS)
DISCOVERY • Internal • 3rd party service provider • Customer impacted • Regulator, law enforcement • Media
1 = INCIDENT RESPONSE • Event Manager • Forensic Investigation • Extortion Negotiation • IT Professional Services • Legal & Regulatory Consultants • Crisis Communications
1 = NOTIFICATION MANAGEMENT • Establishing / Out-sourcing Call Center • Notification – call / text / email / letter • 12 months Credit Monitoring • Service Credits / Loyalty Vouchers
2 & 3 = FINANCIAL LOSS • 2 = Loss of Turnover during restoration period • 3 = Reputational Harm period • Increased costs in working • Extortion demands • Computer Crime
4 = LIABILITY • Claims from
multiple jurisdictions
• Collective / Class actions
• Defence costs and damages
• Fines, Penalties, PCI Awards
1
2
3
Cyber Insurance In Practice
Budgeted / previous turnover Actual turnover Cyber attack occurs Average time to discover a cyber attack Average time to resolve a cyber attack – Ponemon Standard reputational harm insurance period
4
Claims Infrastructure
EVENT MANAGER EXTORTION
NEGOTIATOR IT FORENSICS
IT PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
LEGAL CONSULTANT REGULATORY CONSULTANT
CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS
FORENSIC ACCOUNTANT
Silent Cyber
Managing the Gaps In Insurance
Bodily injury or property damage
•Any physical damage to persons or property is excluded by cyber insurance.
Contractual liability
•Except to where such liability would have attached to the policyholder in the absence of such agreement.
Conduct
•Deliberate acts, intentional breach of laws and reckless commission are not covered.
Intellectual property
•Infringements of patents or trade secrets will not be covered by the policy.
Prior claims and circumstances
•Any knowledge of loss or claim that could give rise under the policy will be excluded. Restriction in retro-active period is also very important.
Fraud losses
•No cover for the monetary value of any electronic fund transfers or transactions by or on behalf of the policyholder, excluding loss by spear phishing attacks or the like.
Systems
•Any electrical or mechanical failure of infrastructure, including telecommunications and power either proprietary or outsourced service providers’ systems, is not covered.
Failure to put right
•Any failure to put right defective systems, procedures or software where the existence of defects, deficiencies, or vulnerability to attack has been identified will invalidate a policy.
Typical policy exclusions
Employee Training - ‘think before your click’
Background/profiling of ex employees
Keep software patched and up-dated
Firewalls
Intrusion Detection Software / Anti-Virus
Off-Site back-ups / outsourced data
****Encrypted remote devices – smartphones, laptops, tablets****
Employ a BCP (Business Continuity Plan) & DRP (Disaster Recovery Plan)
IRP (Incident Response Plan ) with contracted response vendors
Enforce a Privacy Policy – Periodic Review
Penetration test – external / internal
Employ Data Protection Officer / Privacy Officers
Encourage website management/review – monitoring of content
Certify through information security accreditations - Cyber Essentials
Cyber Risk Management
Identify
Mitigate
Certify
Transfer
Cyber risk has been identified as one of the most significant risks businesses
face and that risk is only increasing as the reliance on technology increases.
Increasing risk and losses!
Regulators the world over are re-writing the rule book on how data can be
used, stored and processed. Accountability and resulting fines are increasing.
Regulation
2
There is a growing trend for business to have significant reliance upon
technology for the operation and functionality of their products and services.
Technology
The lack of awareness and general desire to ignore the threats of cyber attack
are often more appealing to business than confronting them.
Ignorance
The Need For Cyber Insurance
Cyber Insurance is the fastest
growing product in the
insurance market.
Global Gross Written Premium for Cyber
Insurance stood at $2b in 2016, and are
expected to increase to $7.5b by 2021.
80% of cyber insurance is purchased in the USA,
London (re)insurers write approximately 50% of
all cyber premiums.
$7.5B Global Premium by 2021
for Cyber Insurance
$20m+? Serviceable
Addressable
Market
3
There could be in excess of $20m of premiums
for Cyber insurance in the Philippines in 2018.
$400B Total Addressable Market
for Global Property Insurance
Cyber Insurance is applicable to almost every
business – Property insurance market represents
potential scope of cyber insurance market.
Market Opportunity
Cyber Treaty
1. Reinsurers can reinsure coverage up to 100% on a quota share basis
2. Allow up to 25% ceding commission on their gross premium
3. Typically, where the Insurer is handling the claims, Reinsurers will offer a maximum of 90% support.
4. Depending on set guidelines, it may be possible for the Treaty to allow cessions to write follow lines which are led by S&P A rated and experienced cyber insurers.
Policy level data of the portfolio which cyber insurance will be embedded with, including: • Country, Province, City, • Insured business description, • limit, • retentions, and • premiums
Questions
Simon Gilbert Founder & Managing Director Office: +44 (0) 207 118 1839 Mobile: +44 (0) 7979 357 090 Address: 3rd Floor, 25-26 Lime Street, London, EC3M 7HR, United Kingdom Email: [email protected] www.elmorebrokers.com
Elmore Insurance Brokers Limited is a company incorporated in England and Wales with registration number 09548115. Elmore Insurance Brokers is an Appointed Representative (FRN 705576) of Bluefriars Brokers Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority - FRN 604987. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable and should be understood to be general risk management and insurance information only. Elmore makes no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy of information contained herein. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such.
Risques émergents et innovation Anna Bordon
July 5, 2017
© Lloyd’s 2017
68
Contenu
− le travaille et l’objectif du team
− le City Risk İndex
− l'impact du changement climatique en Afrique et les opportunités
− Lloyd's et la menace cyber
© Lloyd’s 2017
69
Team | risques émergents et innovation
• Identifier les acteurs clés de
l'innovation et engagez-les
activement.
• Promouvoir et communiquer toutes
les formes d'innovation.
• Identifier et encourager les
opportunités pour d'innovation de
produit.
• Identifier les obstacles et travaillez
avec des partners pour les
supprimer.
• Effectuer de la recherche sur les
risques émergents.
4.quantifier
5.dévelop-pement de
produits
1.identifier
2.évaluer
3.Recherche
© Lloyd’s
Mission: promouvoir une «culture de l'innovation» au Lloyd’s et dans le marché
City Risk Index
© Lloyd’s 2017
71
Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2025
PIB total @ risque pour toutes les villes: $4.56 billions
301 villes
— 50 villes analysées en profondeur
— feuilles d'informations téléchargeables
Trois types de menaces:
— émergents
— catastrophes naturelles
— manmade
https://www.lloyds.com/cityriskindex/
72
Afrique $15.4 milliards par an (154 milliards, 10 ans) – tous les risques
73 73 73 73 © Lloyd’s 2017
27%
14%
59%
émergents
catastrophesnaturelles
manmade
74
Villes africaines
© Lloyd’s 2017
Examples
21.0 millions 13.3 millions 4.7 millions 6.5 millions
75
Population urbaine
© Lloyd’s
% de la population totale en 2014
40
47.5
70.8 73.4
79.5 81.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Africa Asia Oceania Europe Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Northern America
Africa
Asia
Oceania
Europe
Latin America andthe Caribbean
56% en
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division.
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Report.pdf
76
Encourager le progrès humain n'a jamais été aussi important
© Lloyd’s 2017
Les villes sont complexes et le coût
des catastrophes augmente:
− Les infrastructures prend en
charge complexes
interconnexions.
− Un développement économique
rapide et l'urbanisation sont des
raisons essentielles de la
croissance de l'exposition aux
catastrophes naturelles.
− Les villes doivent atténuer les
risques pour protéger le
développement.
Protéger la croissance et le développement en se concentrant sur la résilience
Source: Lloyd’s 2017
https://www.lloyds.com/~/media/files/news%20and%20insight/risk%20insight/2017/arup/lloyds_arup%20future%20cities%202017.pdf
Il y a beaucoup de risques dans le monde
Pourtant, sous-assurance est considérable à l'échelle mondiale …
© Lloyd’s 2017
Compiled from: "EM-DAT”, World Bank, Sigma, CEBR analysis
78 © Lloyd’s 2017
Le besoin de protection Un défi pur le développement
• Les catastrophes empêchent la croissance économique et
le développement durable.
• Il y un besoin de protection dans tous les pays.
• Environ 1.5 à 3 milliards de polices d'assurance sont
requis for pour résoudre le problème!
79
Développement de solutions – Disaster Risk Facility US$400m pour catastrophes naturelles dans les pays émergents
© Lloyd's 2017
Afrique et le changement climatique
© Lloyd’s 2017
81
D’où vient le réchauffement climatique?
© Lloyd's 2017
Modèle de la NASA - Facteurs humains
Gaz à effet de
serre (GES)
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
82 82 82 82 © Lloyd’s 2017 Source: https://350.org/fr/8-impacts-du-changement-climatique-
qui-affectent-deja-lafrique/
83
Impacts en Afrique
© Lloyd’s 2017
Stress hydrique
Ghana est dépendant de l’énergie
hydroélectrique.
Le Mali dépend du fleuve Niger
pour la nourriture, l’eau et le
transport..
Agriculture et sécurité
alimentaire
Adaptation de l’agriculture
africaine – AAA
COP22 Vise à réduire la
vulnérabilité de l’Afrique et de son
agriculture aux changements
climatiques.
Sécheresse
Les terres arides et semi-arides
sont susceptibles d'augmenter
8%
Choc du système alimentaire
© Lloyd’s 2017
https://www.lloyds.co
m/news-and-
insight/risk-
insight/library/society-
and-security/food-
system-shock
85
86
Perturbation de la chaîne
d'approvisionnement alimentaire
Réduction de
l'offre
alimentaire
Hausse des
prix
alimentaires
Effets importants et en cascade
pour les entreprises et la société
87
Choc du système alimentaire
L'effet combiné est un choc de production mondial pour les cultures vivrières de base du monde
10%
maïs
11%
soja
7%
blé
7%
riz
chute dans la production mondiale
88
Impact sur les prix alimentaires
Hausse des prix alimentaires
x4
soja maïs
x4
blé
x4 7%
riz
x5
Augmentation des prix par rapport aux niveaux moyens observés au cours des 20 années précédant le choc du prix alimentaire mondial en 2007-2008
89
Impact sur les marchés financiers La combinaison de prix alimentaires élevés et d'instabilité politique influe gravement sur les marchés
financiers
10%
stocks agricole
Marchés boursiers européens
Marchés boursiers américains 5%
%
90
Sinistres d'assurance éventuels
Risques politique (confiscation directe, restrictions commerciales indirectes
(quotas, etc.), création de blocs régionaux)
Interruption d'activité (Agri business, distribution alimentaire)
Marine et aviation (transporteurs de nourriture, impacts immédiats et
restrictions commerciales)
Agriculture (perte de culture, persistance d'agents pathogènes)
Contamination et rappel (contamination, effet sur la santé des fongicides)
Responsabilité environnementale (Pesticides, utilisation excessive d'engrais
pour compenser la perte de culture)
91
Opportunité
© Lloyd’s
Transition vers l'électricité verte
Source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/wind-and-solar-are-crushing-fossil-
fuels
Renaud Gignac and H Damon Matthews 2015 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-
9326/10/7/075004
Carbon tracker 2014 https://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Unburnable-Carbon-Full-
rev2-1.pdf
Bloomberg https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Price_history_of_silicon_PV_cells_since_1977.svg
Budget
carbone
1,000GtCO2
Prix des cellules
photovoltaïques en
silicium US $ par watt
92 92 92 92 © Lloyd’s 2017 Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertec
93
Solutions developpées au Lloyd’s
© Lloyd’s 2017
Les énergies renouvelables peuvent être assurées
Ouarzazate Solar Power
Station (OSPS), also called
Noor Power Station in
Morocco
Wind turbines, property,
cargo and construction
Small hydro, property, liability
and construction
Menace cyber
© Lloyd’s 2017
95
WannaCry
• Cyberattaque massive, 300
000 ordinateurs -150 pays.
• Système obsolète Windows
XP12 n'ayant pas effectué
les mises à jour de sécurité.
• Cette cyberattaque est
considérée comme le plus
grand piratage à rançon de
l'histoire d’internet.
• En Afrique le Maroque, la
Tunise, l’Egypt , Niger,
Nigeria, Angola, Kenya,
Tanzanie et le Mozambique
on ete exposee.
© Lloyd’s 2017
May 2017 – Rançongiciel auto-répliquant
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WannaCry_ransomware_attack
96 96 96 96 © Lloyd’s 2017
− Tous les secteurs sont concernés (Hôtellerie,
Production, Médias et divertissements,
Pétrole et gaz, Transports, etc…)
− Les types d’attaques cyber perpétrées sont
en constante évolution (« attaques au
président”, rançongiciel, espionnage, etc..
− Le Lloyd’s regroupe plus de 70 assureurs qui
offrent une couverture d’assurance cyber.
− Les entreprises peuvent se préparer à une
menace cyber et s’en prémunir en suivant
quatre pistes:
− Comprendre les menaces spécifiques pour votre
entreprise
− Apprécier les menaces actuelles et futures
− S’assurer que tous les salariés, y compris la
direction, comprennent bien les menaces cyber
− Demander de l’aide à des experts lorsqu’il s’agit de
souscrire des assurances cyber
97
Business blackout: scenario
Recherche Dormance Activation Blackout Réparation
Risques physique d’un attaque cybernétique sur le réseau électrique américain
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3+
© Lloyd’s 2017 https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/library/society-and-security/business-blackout
98
Pertes d’assurances pour le Business Blackout scenario
For context - 2015 $
value :
• Total insurance
catastrophe losses
2014 = $45 milliards
• Hurricane Katrina
2005: $80 milliards
• Tohoku Earthquake
Japan 2011: $38
milliards
• Superstorm Sandy
2012: $37 milliards
• Hurricane Andrew
1992: $28 milliards
• 9/11 WTC 2001: $26
milliards
Scenar
io
Variant
Outage
Duration
(to 90%
reconnecti
on)
Number
of
Generat
ors
Damage
d
Economic
Output
Lost
GDP@Risk
Insurance
Industry
Loss
Estimate
S1 2
semaines
50 $243
milliards
$21.4
milliards
S2 3
semaines
50 $544
milliards
$39.9
milliards
X1 4
semaines
100 $1,024
milliards
$71.1
milliards
99
Power Generati
on Compani
es 21%
Defendant
Companies
11%
Companies that Lose
Power 49%
Companies
Indirectly Affected
17%
Homeowners 2%
Specialty 0.3%
Assurance dommage aux biens
immobiliers – Property
8%
Business Interruption - Interruption
d’activité 63%
Responsabilité civile
29%
Estimation d’une perte de $21.4 milliards pour le
• Claimant Type
• Line of Business/Coverage
S1 scenario
100
Conclusion
− Il y a beaucoup de risques dans le monde.
− Le risques sont aussi des opportunités.
− Les villes et les entreprises peuvent se préparer et
s’en prémunir en se concentrant sur la résilience.
− Lloyd’s offre des solutions pour protéger la croissance
économique et le développement durable.
© Lloyd’s 2017
102
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country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. It is the responsibility of
any person publishing or communicating the contents of this document or communication, or any part
thereof, to ensure compliance with all applicable legal and regulatory requirements.
The content of this presentation does not represent a prospectus or invitation in connection with any
solicitation of capital. Nor does it constitute an offer to sell securities or insurance, a solicitation or an offer
to buy securities or insurance, or a distribution of securities in the United States or to a U.S. person, or in
any other jurisdiction where it is contrary to local law. Such persons should inform themselves about and
observe any applicable legal requirement.
Disclaimer
© Lloyd’s 2017
