NIGERIA 2015 & OIL PRICE MOVEMENTS

Emmanuel EmieluDec 7, 2014

Dynamics of Oil Price Movements

Technology

Discoveries

Economics

Politics

Environment

92.992.520

15

World Proved Reserves, 2011 (BBL)

SAUDI ARABIA

VENEZUELA

CANADA

IRAN

IRAQ

KUWAIT

UAE

RUSSIA

LIBYA

NIGERIA

KAZASTAN

QATAR

USA

CHINA

BRAZIL

ALGERIA

MEXICO

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

263

211

175

137

115

104

98

60

46

37

30

25

23

20

13

12

10

SOURCE: Energy Information Agency

Historic Global Oil Price Movement

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 © BP 2014

Crude oil prices 1861-2013US dollars per barrel, world events

Technology Drives Shale Development

Prospective Shale Countries

Top-10 Shale Gas Resource Countries, 2013 (Source – EIA)

USA

China

Argen

tina

Alger

ia

Canad

a

Mexico

Austra

lia

Sout

h Afri

ca

Russia

Brazil

Other

s0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1116 1115

802707

573 545

437390

285 245

1535

Resources (tcf)

World Total – 7, 299tcf

Top-10 Shale Oil Resource Countries, 2013 (Source – EIA)

Russia

Other

sUSA

China

Liby

a

Arge

ntin

a

Aust

ralia

Mex

ico

Vene

zuel

a

Canad

a

Pakist

an

Other

s0

20

40

60

80 7565

48

32 28 2718 13 13 9 9

65

Resources (bbl)

World Total – 335bbl

Implications for Nigeria - BACKGROUND• Import Dependent• Oil Dependent

• Revenue• Dollar receipts

• Huge oil and gas• Flat production• Crude oil theft and community issues• Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) delayed

• Security, etc• 170M people

• Education and skill challenges• Infrastructures – road, power, etc• Inflation, Interest rates rising?• Naira devaluation – N200/$ or higher?• 2015 Elections

• Fiscal responsibility?• Governance?

Implications for Nigeria 2015 - Huge Uncertainties

• Global uncertainties• Economics and Geopolitics• OPEC Response• North America Shale

• Nigerian Government uncertainties• Inflation, Interest rate, currency• Elections• PIB passage• Subsidy

• Elections uncertainties• Fiscal responsibility?• Governance?

What Can We Do?No Easy Answers!!!• Develop Insights and Scenarios

• Be informed• Consult• Use best judgment

• Short Term• Apply Prudence• Mind the Small Stuff

• Long Term• Skill, Up-skill, Re-skill• Review your perspectives• Speed – and stamina - matter• Apply the Simultaneous Equation of Prosperity

The Small Stuff Effect - Time

ACTIVITY TIME WEEKLY

HOURS DAYS MONTHS

1 Traffic3.00 15.00 780.00 32.50 1.08

2 Browsing2.00 14.00 728.00 30.33 1.01

3 Bathing0.50 3.50 182.00 7.58 0.25

4 Gossip/Idleness1.00 7.00 364.00 15.17 0.51

TV2.00 14.00 728.00 30.33 1.01

- - - 3.86

SMALL STUFF CALCULATOR

TOTAL

ANNUALLY

www.og-softskills.com

Small Stuff Effect - Consumables

ITEM COST QTY WEEKLY ANNUALLY

1 Coke 100 2 1,400.00 72,800.00

2 Beer 200 7 9,800.00 509,600.00

3 Cigarette 150 7 7,350.00 382,200.00

4 Recharge Card 400 7 2,800.00 145,600.00

5 - -

21,350.00 1,110,200.00

www.og-softskills.com

TOTAL

SMALL STUFF CALCULATOR

Some Penny-wise things

Life Is Not a Sprint – It’s a Marathon!

• SPEED• Money• Houses• Position• Promotion

• STAMINA• Knowledge, Skills, Experience• Relationships• Personal Discipline• Spiritual Foundation and

Nourishment

Above All…

• When money failed in the land (Gen 47:15)

• When the Laban made the economy and business difficult for Jacob

(Gen 31:7)

• When Naomi lost all in a foreign land, and thought life was bitter

(Ruth 1:20)

• There was a God in Heaven who:• Gave Joseph uncommon insight to

redeem Israel from famine and extinction

• Gave Jacob uncommon business strategies for spectacular growth – even under harsh conditions

• God ordered Naomi’s steps to align with harvest time, ending 10 years of famine

5 Trust in the LORD with all thine heart; and lean not unto thine own understanding.6 In all thy ways acknowledge him, and he shall direct thy paths.

Thank You!

Emmanuel Emielu