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MOBILE MONDAYVIETNAM
Facts, Figures and Forecast for the Vietnam Mobile Market
Vietnam – Mobile Industry Landscape
• Total Population: 85 millions
• Percentage of Population age < 30: 50%
• Total Mobile Subscribers : 45 millions
• Forecasted Mobile User Growth: 75 %/annum
• No. of Mobile Operators: 7 (5GSM + 2 CDMA)
• Number of Mobile Content Providers: 150
• Postpaid / Prepaid user: 10 / 90
Source: Frost & Sullivan & Nielsen
Vietnam – Mobile Operator
Mobile statistics remain a mess and need standardizing
•MIC needs to standardise the data reporting for mobile subscriber numbers
in line with international practice
•Without this there will be continued confusion in the market as to exactly
what the numbers are
Source: VietNamNet Bridge
Vietnam’s mobile statistics remain unreliable
Operator “Reported” total
subscriber numbers
(thousands)
“Active” total subscriber
numbers (thousands)
Viettel 60,680 34,150
Mobifone 53,660 28,820
VinaPhone 36,540 18,200
S-Fone 4,810 2,200
EVN Telecom 930 380
HT Mobile 410 159
Sources: Operators; RJB EstimatesData reported from March 2009
Vietnam Mobile Market Shares March 2008
Vinaphone, 25.4%
Mobifone, 32.9%HT Mobile, 0.4%
Viettel, 38.4%
S-Fone, 2.4%
EVN Tel, 0.4%
Viettel continues to dominate the mobile market – the picture a year ago
Source: RJB Consulting
Cellular Market Shares - March 2009
Vinaphone
21.7%
Mobifone
34.3%
Viettel
40.7%
EVN Tel
0.5%
S-Fone
2.6%
HT Mobile
0.2%
Viettel continues to dominate the mobile market – the picture 3 months ago
Source: RJB Consulting
Vietnam Mobile Market Share Status
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Vietnam is predominantly a prepaid market with close to 95.5% of the mobile
subscribers in 2014
Vietnam Mobile Subscriber Composition
Vietnam Mobile Technology Mix
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Vietnam Mobile Subscriber Growth
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Mobile Penetration rate in 2008 is around 74.9%. The market is expected
to grow at an average of 6% from 2009-2014, with 2009 & 2010 recording
the highest growth figures throughout the forecast period.
Vietnam Mobile Revenue Forecast
Source: Frost & Sullivan
The mobile revenue for 2008 is $2.29 billion, with an exponential
growth for the forecast period 2009-2014, with a CAGR of 5.39%
Vietnam Mobile ARPU TrendsAs most major markets in Asia Pacific, postpaid ARPU is higher than prepaid
ARPU, with the prepaid ARPU following the same trend as the blended ARPU
in years following 2008 till 2014
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Vietnam Key Regulatory Issues
• New Telecommunication Law
• 3G Licensing
• Mobile Operator Privatization
• Prepaid Registration
Drivers of Mobile growth
• Lower prices of handsets and service plans• Increased competition and possibility of entry by MVNOs• Network expansion into rural areas• Demographic trends• Broadband capabilities and data usage through 3G
deployment• Thus by 2013 we forecast:
– Total market of 140 million mobiles is achievable in Vietnam– Mobile penetration of about 155% is thus possible in that timeframe
• Issues:– Cleaning out of unused numbers may have an effect of reducing absolute
numbers over time– Registration of pre-paid subscribers doesn’t appear to have had much impact
yet
Continued Rapid Growth
• Vietnam remains one of the fastest growing key markets in Asia even during the global crisis
• As GDP and income grow Vietnam’s telecoms market has room to expand
• Demographic trends suggest that the boom will continue for at least the next 5 years, and probably longer
Summary of Key Vietnam Market Trends -The partial privatization of Vietnam’s three larges operators, namely MobiFone, VinaPhone and Viettel is
one of the last opportunities for foreign operators to invest in an emerging market, and it is no surprise that
the process has draw the attention of over 30 bidders including SingTel, Telecom Malaysia International,
NTT, France Telecom, just to name a few.
-- 2G Network expansion will continue to be a major investment driver in Vietnam as operators rush to
provide services in rural areas and compete with Viettel, which has the greatest number of base stations in
the country of more than 12,000, having installed 7,000 in 2006 alone. VinaPhone and MobiFone are
rushing to catch up, and aim to have 9,000 and 10,000 base stations by end of 2009, and the smaller
networks of the other participants has been a large reason for their smaller subscriber growth, hence
major expansion contracts are expected from them as well. Vietnam mobile network still experiences
problems handling massive call volumes during holidays such as Tet (Lunar New Year), so we expected
spending to increase network quality as well.
- Vietnam will join the second wave of emerging market operators to deploy 3G services,, joining other
neighboring countries such as India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand. Vietnams regulator, the Ministry of
Information and Communications has granted 4 licenses in 2009, with the intent of commercially deploying
service in 2010. The regulator will qualified each operator to undergo a network test, as well as to prove it
has the financial muscle to effectively deploy the technology. 3G services will initially serve as a niche
application in Vietnam due to the low penetration of enable handsets unless operators decide to pursue
data card access to provide a fixed-line alternative to broadband service.
Thank You!
Why MobileMonday in Vietnam?• Need to have a forum to ‘refresh’ the industry
(technology, business case, innovation, etc.)
• Need to have a channel to voice the ‘positive’ side of the mobile industry.
• Need to foster closer communication and cooperation cross sector between stakeholders of the industry (telcos, vendors, CPs, developers, media, regulators)
MobileMonday Vietnam, Hanoi Chapter
• Proposed established by January 2008
• Pre-Event : Monday, March 24,2008Executive Brief in Hanoi
• First Event : Monday, May 05, 2008in Zenta Café, Ho Chi Minh City.
• Latest Event : Monday, June 29, 2009in Venus Restaurant, Hanoi.
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