ISSUE NUMBER 92A BRIEF REVIEW

EYE SPYINTELLIGENCE MAGAZINE

Your Gateway to the Secret World ofEspionage and Intelligence

ON SALE/PUBLICATION DATE 18 JUNE 2014

R E A D B Y T H E W O R L D ’ S I N T E L L I G E N C E C O M M U N I T Y

VOLUME XII NUMBER FOUR (ISSUE 92)

ISSN 1364 8446 publication date:

AUGUST 2014

Each print edition of Eye Spy Intelligence Magazine is 84pp - full colourthroughout. The images contained in this brief overview are very low resolution

EYE SPY 92

SPECIAL EDITORIALFROM THE EDITOR - MARK BIRDSALL

ERRORS IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

Three major happenings have attracted theattention of the intelligence world of late.Firstly the shocking shootdown of MalaysiaAirlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine;the advances of the terrorist group ISIS inSyria and Iraq, and a new round of bloody

clashes between Hamas and the Israeli Defence Forces.

ISIS was born from al-Qaida in Iraq and its followers are led byaround 30 regional thugs who have a reputation for extremeviolence - the likes of which we have not seen since Abu Musabal-Zarqawi operated in Iraq. Despite warning after warning fromthe CIA and MI6, ISIS has been allowed to develop and hasnow become a magnet for attracting hundreds of young menfrom around the world. President Obama, under increasingpressure from intelligence officials, has at last ordered strikesagainst the terror group which is threatening to overrun theentire north of Iraq. It will be interesting to see what support(if any) the USA is afforded by its allies. Nevertheless, theterror outfit will be difficult to eliminate. The rise of ISIS andits ‘grand leader’ - Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi are examined in EyeSpy 92.

There is a legitimate back story to the appalling loss of lifefollowing the MH17 incident. Events leading up to the attackshould have been sufficient to alert the air authorities thatusing the air corridor over this part of Ukraine was simply toodangerous. I do not understand for a moment why a second-ary route was not introduced and made mandatory to allcivilian carriers. Three months of air incidents and theintroduction of missile systems to pro-Russia militias fightinggovernment forces, should surely have alerted decisionmakers that it would be best to avoid the area. I understand questions surrounding this issue have been quietlyraised and discussed but this is hardly helpful to those grieving families who lost loved ones.

A few thousand miles away in Gaza, another disaster has befallen its besieged people. For the third time in five years, IDFand Hamas have clashed and as predictable as ever, the losers are civilians. Commentators, politicians and world

Subscribed to by all the world’s leadingintelligence and security agencies

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Pro-Moscow militia men

Gaza youngster

governments have described Israel’s response to the killing of three young men as “disproportionate.” These deaths andthe murder of a young Palestinian by Israelis lit the touch paper.

Militarily Hamas are no match for the IDF. The firing of rockets into Israel and the heavy weaponry used to attack launchsites in Gaza have resulted in the deaths of over 1500 people, the majority of whom are civilians. There is now a propa-ganda war developing - the blame game - which neither side will win. Hamas point to schools and hospitals which wereundoubtedly destroyed, and to some degree it is true coordinates for such sites were delivered to Tel Aviv. Israel arguesthey were being used to host launch sites and store weaponry. Again, this is an aspect of the conflict which will never beresolved satisfactorily. And then there are the notorious tunnels of Hamas - used for years to secret supplies, materials andweaponry into Gaza. Todate, Israel has destroyed around 100 tunnels - some of which enter Israel. Intelligence watchersnote these will inevitably be rebuilt in time.

Prior to the new war, Hamas was losing support in Gaza. But now it is again enjoying popularity. Israel has been widelycriticised for its hardline response and even some allies have been left shocked by the images coming out of Gaza. The

Primitive but menacing. Qassam rocketlaunches used by Hamas

Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu

HamasleaderKhaledMeshaal

towns will take yearsto rebuild, and about500,000 homes havebeen destroyed.There are no winnersand only a politicalsolution will stop thishappening again.

All three events havebeen described as“avoidable” by intel-ligence analysts. Thegrowth of ISIS waspredicted by the CIAand AFRICOM a yearand more ago. Eventsin Syria and the lackof focus on who tosupport and thewithdrawal of USforces in Iraq enabled its emergence to go unchecked. Civilian airliners should never have been allowed to overfly easternUkraine, and in Gaza, few analysts predicted the response ordered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He publiclywarned the White House - “never second guess me on matters involving Hamas.”

This reveals a great deal of mistrust between Washington and Tel Aviv. In truth, many analysts believe President Obama haslittle stomach to enter into tough negotiations as he nears the end of his second presidential term. Eye Spy was told fewsenior US intelligence officials trust the president to act with authority. This is perhaps reflected in the dismissive mannerin which he is being treated by Moscow. President Putin simply does what he wants - and may yet - according to oursources, decide to order Russian military forces into Ukraine. If that happens, it will be interesting to see how thepresident and other fearful European leaders respond. NATO could react - but where will this all lead?

In the world of espionage, several new cases have attracted the attention of Eye Spy, not least the on-going actions of bogusChinese firms attaching themselves to legitimate US defence contract companies. In Germany, we have seen yet anotherCIA Chief of Station depart, this because two of its spies were identified. There are also rumours of an enlarged CIA spyring which may yet lead to further rumblings in Berlin. Eye Spy investigates.

We also have contracted a special tradecraft feature on cell phone and other electronic media platform interception. ‘Gonein Sixty Seconds’ reveals how you can lose sensitive information and your identity in a moment. Thankfully the authorprovides readers with a simple counter-measure that can help. It is a topic long discussed by Eye Spy. Virtually any cellphone can be bugged - suffice to say such devices have been banned at Cabinet Meetings in Whitehall, and ironically by theGerman Parliamentary Committee investigating the NSA’s interception and surveillance programme.

Eye Spy 92 has a fascinating intelligence feature on the heroes of the Great War and the reopening of the Imperial WarMuseum. This is accompanied by some splendid imagery. It is hard to believe a hundred years have passed since thisterrible conflict began. Yet one operation enabled by the British laid the foundation for today’s codebreakers.

We also caught up with former New Scotland Yard detective Colin Sutton. He was the first senior police officer on the sceneat 36 Alderney Street, Pimlico, London, where MI6-GCHQ man Gareth Williams was discovered dead in a sports bag in2010. Rumours about his death continue to abound, but Mr Sutton had some interesting thoughts and comments to make.

These are just some of the informative features which appear in this information-packed edition. Readers can also viewother reports and stories in this brief overview.

President Obama and CIA Director John Brennan. The US IntelligenceCommunity is fast losing faith in the White House

OPERATION PROTECTIVE EDGE

CAUGHT IN THE GAZA CROSSFIRE

Israel seeks to destroy the ‘supply and carrier’ tunnels of Gaza,as fighting between IDF troops and Hamas results in over 1500

deaths - the vast majority civilians

Controversy over hugecivilian death toll

Hamas and Israel clashfor the third time in five

years

NOT JUST ANOTHER ORDINARY SUMMER IN UKRAINETHE PRELUDE

As NATO officials describe events in Ukraine as a ‘hybrid war requiring ahybrid solution’, Eye Spy examines a number of deadly and controversialincidents culminating in the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight

MH17 and the loss of 300 people. Also a fascinating insight into the workof Ukraine’s intelligence service - the SSU

REMEMBERING A SPECIALDAY FOR CODEBREAKERS

KEYS TO ENIGMA

TARGETS AND OPPORTUNITY

GONE IN 60 SECONDS

A special tradecraft feature that reveals just how easy it is to access your cellphone and other electronic platforms - even when they are switched off. Thisinformative article also provides users of such devices with a simple counter-

measure

FACT:For security purposes Britishpremier David Cameron has

banned all electronic devicesat Cabinet meetings

FACT:Virtually any cell phone can

be illegally accessed inseconds...

FACT:Before every meeting of theGerman Bundestag’s NSA

inquiry committee,members must leave theircell phones in a metal box

in an adjacent room

TRADECRAFT

MI6 CHIEF SIR JOHN SAWERS STEPS DOWN

FAREWELL ‘C’

The head of Britain’sSecret Intelligence Service,

Sir John Sawers, 58, hasrevealed he is to leave MI6in November 2014, after

serving as ‘C’ for five years.A look back at some notable

moments in his career

DIEGO GARCIA AND EXTRAORDINARY RENDITION

DEEP BLACK: CENTRAL EXCHANGE

The latest developments surrounding two major international investigationsinto the CIA’s extraordinary rendition programme - and the alleged role played by

Britain which may yet come back to haunt both London and Washington

THE HUNT FOR AL-BAGHDADICIA SEARCHES FOR NOTORIOUS ISIS TERROR LEADER

A defined CIA ISIS Desk and Special Forces now activated in search and eliminationprogramme of the most dangerous terrorist to emerge since Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

The actions of ISIS against civilians and government forces in Syria and Iraqhave been compared to the Nazi slaughter of millions of Jews in WWII Europe. A

United Nations investigatory panel has also described them as ‘war crimes’

NEW TRANS-ATLANTIC BOMB PLOTUNDERWEAR BOMB-MAKER NOW WORKING FOR ISIS

A special report on how MI6 infiltrated aterrorist cell to discover how a notorious

bomb-maker plans to bring airlinersdown around the world...

IbrahimHassanal-Asiri

INSIDE STORY: AN INTELLIGENCE PERSPECTIVE

MH17 SHOOTDOWN

Pro-Moscow militias bring down Malaysian civilian airliner as months ofintelligence ignored on dangers of overflying eastern Ukraine

The coffins of Dutch dead arrive at EindhovenAirport and are afforded dignity after their

shocking treatment by Ukraine rebels in Donetsk

‘AIR CORRIDOR SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN OPERATIONAL’

NEW SCOTLAND YARD DETECTIVE TALKS TO EYE SPY

MI6-GCHQ SPY DEATH

One of Britain’s most experienced lead detectives who worked on theinvestigation into the bizarre death of Gareth Williams, a GCHQ cyber

specialist on secondment to MI6 in 2010, has admitted having lingeringdoubts about how the analyst actually died...

Langley’s most senior spy inBerlin asked to leave afterGerman intelligence officerand military staffer arrestedfor trading secrets in return

for money - this as allegationsof a CIA spy network surface.

Full inside story

LANGLEY’S CHIEF OFSTATION DEPARTS BERLIN

CIA SPY GAMES

BOGUS FRONT COMPANIES SECURE MORE US SECRETS

RED ESPIONAGE

A complex operation exposes yet another Chinese espionage spy ring operatingin North America. Eye Spy provides an insight into how such networks infiltrate

the USA and secure high-end technologies which are duplicated by Beijing

Using ‘tradecraft’ andcunning drawn from the

intelligence world, Eye Spyexamines the tactics and

methods used by terroristorganisations to attract,secure and deploy youngmen to the battlefields of

Iraq, Syria, Africa andbeyond...

DON’T GIVE TERRORISTS THE ‘OXYGEN OF PUBLICITY’

THE RECRUITERS

KGB HAND-WRITTEN FILES NOW AVAILABLE TO VIEW

MITROKHIN ARCHIVES

Translated, but edited copies of KGB papers from the legendary ‘MitrokhinArchive’ have been made available for research. The hand-written notes

containing a huge number of intelligence files were transcribed by senior KGBarchivist Major Vasili Mitrokhin over several years at the height of the Cold

War. Each day after finishing work, Mitrokhin would secretly remove reportsfrom his office, take them home and make copies - this he did for decades.

Eye Spy selects a few of the most interesting ‘intelligence gems’...

This feature focuses on the development and use of knives by those involved inmilitary operations, the darker areas of intelligence, assassination and security

and also as a defensive tool...

IN THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE

ENCOUNTER CONTROL PART FIVE

SIGNALS • INTELLIGENCE • VICTORY

THE GREAT WAR 1914-1918

The British military historical event of the year was the reopening of the flag-ship Imperial War Museum (IWM) in London in July. This was timed to coin-cide with the 100th anniversary of the beginning of World War One and fol-lowed a major refurbishment. Eye Spy was invited to report on the occasion

and a new WWI exhibition...

REVIEWS AND BREAKING NEWS FROM INTEL WORLD

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