extreme&weatherevents&on& the&last&frontier ...€¦ ·...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ON THE LAST FRONTIER:
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSES AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS
Lauren Zuromski Florida State University
Meteorology NOAA Goal: MiIgaIon and adaptaIon efforts supported
by sustained, reliable, and Imely climate services. NWS
Richard Thoman Dr. John Walsh, InternaIonal ArcIc Research Center
![Page 2: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
MoIvaIon § NWS lacks assessment of high-‐impact events
§ Goals: § Enhance state and local responses
§ Improve forecasts
§ Inform policy makers
![Page 3: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Methods for Researching Six High-‐Impact Alaskan Events
§ 6-‐hrly NCEP/NCAR composites § NCEP: NaIonal Centers for Atmospheric PredicIons § NCAR: NaIonal Center for Atmospheric Research
§ 3-‐hrly NARR composites § NARR: North American Regional Reanalysis
§ NCDC’s Storm Events Database § NCDC: NaIonal ClimacIc Data Center
§ Newspaper arIcles on microfilm
![Page 4: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Nov. 1974 Bering Sea Storm: Nome
![Page 5: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Nov. 1974 Bering Sea Storm: Nome
§ 970mb § 70mph winds § 10a waves
![Page 6: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Nov. 1974 Bering Sea Storm: Nome
§ $15M in damage § All 80 families in King Island lost their homes
§ $90K in Red Cross assistance
Photo from the Daily News-‐Miner, 1974
![Page 7: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Nov. 1984 Southeast Coastal Storm: Juneau
![Page 8: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Nov. 1984 Southeast Coastal Storm: Juneau
§ Deepened by 10mb in 6hrs
§ Recorded low of 955mb
§ Record-‐breaking 92mph gusts
![Page 9: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Nov. 1984 Southeast Coastal Storm: Juneau
§ $2.4M in damage for Juneau § Downed trees, broken power lines, destroyed roads, overturned planes, damaged harbors, sunken boats
§ $1M in damage for Tenakee Springs § 15 of village’s 50 homes destroyed
Photo from the Juneau Empire, 1984
![Page 10: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Jan. 1989 Cold Snap: The Interior
![Page 11: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Jan. 1989 Cold Snap: The Interior § -‐76F in Tanana on 1/27 § 1078.6mb in Northway on 1/31 § Warmer than -‐40F only one day out of a three-‐week period in Fairbanks
![Page 12: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Jan. 1989 Cold Snap: The Interior
§ Fuel shortages § Congealed heaIng fuel § Cars unable to start § Scagered telephone outages
§ Frozen water and sewage lines
§ Non-‐delivery of supplies to villages
Photo from the Daily News-‐Miner, 1989
![Page 13: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Jun. 1996 Miller’s Reach Fire
![Page 14: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Jun. 1996 Miller’s Reach Fire
§ 40mph gusts spread fire on 6/3
§ In 4hrs, fire grew 20,000 acres on 6/5
§ 37,000 total acres burned
![Page 15: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Jun. 1996 Miller’s Reach Fire
§ 1,300 firefighters § 380 houses and buildings destroyed
§ $10M in damage § $58.8M in avoided damage
§ 1,300 firefighters
Photo by Anne Raupe from the Anchorage Daily News, 1996
![Page 16: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Jan. 2005 ArcIc Storm: Kaktovik
![Page 17: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Jan. 2005 ArcIc Storm: Kaktovik
§ 980mb § -‐60Fs wind chills
§ 35—50mph winds
§ 10—20a snowdrias
![Page 18: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Jan. 2005 ArcIc Storm: Kaktovik
§ $6.7M disaster § 600lbs of supplies flown in § Food § Propane § Generators
![Page 19: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Dec. 2011–Jan. 2012 Gulf Coast Snow
![Page 20: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Dec. 2011–Jan. 2012 Gulf Coast Snow § Series of 14 storms
§ Centers as low as 950mb
§ 75in snow above average in Cordova
![Page 21: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Dec. 2011-‐Jan. 2012 Gulf Coast Snow § Collapsed roofs, crashed cars, power outages
§ 70 Alaska NaIonal Guard personnel
§ $35M–$40M for 24-‐hr snow removal
§ $775K spent on relief efforts
Photo by Carven ScoI
![Page 22: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Looking Ahead
§ More events § River floods § Ice fog
§ Present findings as a webinar for the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP)
![Page 23: EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER ...€¦ · EXTREME&WEATHEREVENTS&ON& THE&LAST&FRONTIER:& METEOROLOGICAL&ANALYSES&AND& SOCIETAL&IMPACTS! Lauren&Zuromski&! Florida&State&University&&](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022080722/5f7bd65a361ca832a528fe2f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Acknowledgements