extended abstract decomposing geographical variation of

7
Extended Abstract Decomposing geographical variation of declining child sex ratio in Uttar Pradesh Introduction Sex ratio is measure of population composition. Generally more males are born and theoretically there are to be equal males and females in a given population. In recent years it is observed that overall sex ratio of the world population is 101 males per 100 females. As per 2011 Indian Census there are 106 males per 100 females. When we look for 0-6 years’ population this number is estimated as 109 boys for 100 girls for India. There is a wide variation in sex ratio and child (0-6 years) sex ratio in states and districts of India. Typically the sex ratio is imbalanced and more males are present in more than 90 percent states of India. Uttar Pradesh, most populous state of India, also has this imbalance and this imbalance is worsening with the time. As a result, missing girls has come up as a new demographic challenge for countries experiencing fertility decline. In India, recent Census data suggest despite increase in overall sex ratio, there is decline in child sex ratio. Same is the case with Uttar Pradesh. This study aims at mainly analyzing Census data at the three levels viz. village, development block and district level and identify the geographical areas of concern. This study through its disaggregated analysis will unmask inequalities in child sex ratios in Uttar Pradesh. Census as a prime source on count of population facilitate number of males and females by age. Data released under Primary Census Abstract (PCA) enables community level representation of this phenomenon. This study is to look in to the sex ratio for three census years namely 1991, 2001 and 2011. Objectives Main objective of the study is to find sub-state level variations in child sex ratio and to find the areas of concern. The specific objectives are listed as- 1. To study the trends in child sex ratio in Uttar Pradesh 2. To study the village level data for three Censuses points and understand the patterns of child sex ratio over time 3. To identify areas of grave concern by multi-level analysis Data Source Primary Census Abstract data for 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses. Methods Recasting of PCA data for 1991 and 2001 has been done on the basis of 2011 Census. Additionally, four newly created districts in Uttar Pradesh have been created in data and analysis has been performed for 75 districts. Likewise backward recasting (based on 2011) of distribution of villages for 821 development blocks has also been done. In rural areas three levels of analysis have been considered namely district, development block and village.

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Page 1: Extended Abstract Decomposing geographical variation of

Extended Abstract

Decomposing geographical variation of declining child

sex ratio in Uttar Pradesh

Introduction Sex ratio is measure of population composition. Generally more males are born and

theoretically there are to be equal males and females in a given population. In recent

years it is observed that overall sex ratio of the world population is 101 males per

100 females. As per 2011 Indian Census there are 106 males per 100 females. When

we look for 0-6 years’ population this number is estimated as 109 boys for 100 girls

for India. There is a wide variation in sex ratio and child (0-6 years) sex ratio in states

and districts of India. Typically the sex ratio is imbalanced and more males are

present in more than 90 percent states of India. Uttar Pradesh, most populous state

of India, also has this imbalance and this imbalance is worsening with the time. As a

result, missing girls has come up as a new demographic challenge for countries

experiencing fertility decline. In India, recent Census data suggest despite increase in

overall sex ratio, there is decline in child sex ratio. Same is the case with Uttar

Pradesh. This study aims at mainly analyzing Census data at the three levels viz.

village, development block and district level and identify the geographical areas of

concern. This study through its disaggregated analysis will unmask inequalities in

child sex ratios in Uttar Pradesh. Census as a prime source on count of population

facilitate number of males and females by age. Data released under Primary Census

Abstract (PCA) enables community level representation of this phenomenon. This

study is to look in to the sex ratio for three census years namely 1991, 2001 and

2011.

Objectives Main objective of the study is to find sub-state level variations in child sex ratio and

to find the areas of concern. The specific objectives are listed as-

1. To study the trends in child sex ratio in Uttar Pradesh

2. To study the village level data for three Censuses points and understand the

patterns of child sex ratio over time

3. To identify areas of grave concern by multi-level analysis

Data Source Primary Census Abstract data for 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses.

Methods Recasting of PCA data for 1991 and 2001 has been done on the basis of 2011 Census.

Additionally, four newly created districts in Uttar Pradesh have been created in data

and analysis has been performed for 75 districts. Likewise backward recasting (based

on 2011) of distribution of villages for 821 development blocks has also been done.

In rural areas three levels of analysis have been considered namely district,

development block and village.

Page 2: Extended Abstract Decomposing geographical variation of

2

Child (0-6 years) sex ratio (F/1000m) in India and Uttar Pradesh

945

927

919

927

916

902

926

916

903

880

890

900

910

920

930

940

950

1991 2001 2011

India Uttar Pradesh Uttar Pradesh (Recasted)

0

.001

.002

.003

.004

600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600x

kdensity sr91 kdensity sr01 kdensity sr11

Results The sex ratio of child population (0-6 years) have declined over the time in India as

well as in Uttar Pradesh.

Latest Census 2011

reveal that CSR (child

sex ratio) is as low as

902 girls per 1000 boys.

There has been 1.2

percent decline during

1991 to 2001 in CSR.

While as, an accelerated

decline of 1.5 percent

was noted during 2001

to 2011. In present

study recasting on 2011

Jurisdiction has been performed. In the process of backward matching of

villages/towns of 1991 and 2001 some units did not match owing to creation/

deletion of some units. In this study of the total population 97.8 percent, 97.4

percent and 97.9 percent for Census years 1991, 2001 and 2011 have matched. Thus

child sex ratio for recasted population has also been presented here. The recasted

CSR are similar to those reported by Census in respective years.

CSR in 1991, 2001 and 2011

The CSR for each of the villages and town has been computed for 1991, 2001 and

2011 census units. The

distribution of units has

been presented in Table-

1. It is notable that 49

percent units had CSR

below 900, which got

reduced for 44 percent

units in 2001 and further

to 43 percent in 2011.

There has been decline in

percent share of

successive categories of

CSR. The adjoining

density graph of CSR for

three decades also

present the similar

picture. The distribution

is shifting towards the

left side depicting decline

in CSR.

Page 3: Extended Abstract Decomposing geographical variation of

3

CSR in regions of Uttar Pradesh

936 938

923

911

926

914

940

914

892

916

905

919

897

887

903

860

870

880

890

900

910

920

930

940

950

Central Eastern Southern Western UP

CSR 1991 CSR 2001 CSR 2011

69

36

68

65

4440

6739

6638

4335

6364

41

37

42 62

60

27

6134

72 48

3332 59

2557

47

31

30

46

54265845

55

15 2952

5616 1753

51

49

2328

24

1470

5071

13

12

18 22

21

11197510

20

456

749

78

32

73

1 (970,1030](910,970]

(850,910][730,850]

Sex Ratio 0-6 Years 1991

69

36

68

65

4440

6739

6638

4335

6364

41

37

42 62

60

27

6134

72 48

3332 59

2557

47

31

30

46

54265845

55

15 2952

5616 1753

51

49

2328

24

1470

5071

13

1218 22

21

11197510

20

456

749

78

32

73

1 (970,1030](910,970]

(850,910][730,850]

Sex Ratio 0-6 Years 2001

CSR in regions of Uttar Pradesh

There is a wide variation in CSR among four regions of Uttar Pradesh. The highest

CSR was for Eastern

region followed by

Central region and

Southern region leaving

Western region for the

last position. The similar

position remained in

2001 and 2011. The

difference between the

highest and lowest CSR

is 22 points in 2011.

Details of CSR by rural

and urban areas are presented in Table-2.

CSR in districts of Uttar Pradesh

The CSR in 1991 among 75 districts varied from 877 to 975. The top five districts as

per CSR were Sonbhadra (975), Kheri

(964), Pilibhit (957), Mau (955) and

Sitapur (953) and bottom five were

Firozabad (877), Baghpat (885),

Sambhal (886), Mathura (888) and

Etah (889). In 2001 the CSR ranged

between 842 and 966. The top

featuring districts were Sonbhadra

(966), Bahraich (965), Siddharthnagar

(965), Balrampur (961) and Mahrajganj

(957) and the trailing districts were

Ghaziabad (890), Baghpat (850),

Shamli (857), Meerut (857) and

Gautam Buddha Nagar (858). In 2011

the variation in CSR ranged from 841

to 950. The top districts were

Balrampur (950), Sant Kabir Nagar

(942), Bahraich (935), Siddharthnagar

(935) and Amethi (935) and bottom

five were Baghpat (841), Gautam

Buddha Nagar (844), Ghaziabad (845),

Meerut (852) and Bulandshahr (854).

There is a clear demarcation of east

and west when top and bottom five

districts of the state are counted. Map-

1 presents the distribution of 75

districts by CSR for 1991, 2001 and

2011.

Page 4: Extended Abstract Decomposing geographical variation of

4

69

36

68

65

4440

6739

6638

4335

6364

41

37

42 62

60

27

6134

72 48

3332 59

2557

47

31

30

46

54265845

55

15 2952

5616 1753

51

49

2328

24

1470

5071

13

1218 22

21

11197510

20

456

749

78

32

73

1 (970,1030](910,970]

(850,910][730,850]

Sex Ratio 0-6 Years 2011

143

140

150

141139

138

148142

144151

137

145149

146147

114

115116

110

113117

118119

111109

112

108

464

462

467 471473

459

465 469468

458

477476

460

474

463470

472

466

461

475

512

505510

509

507508

511 506

504

348

350

352

351

347346

349

681

679

685684

683

689

680

697

682

695699

691

692

686

700

693

694687

688690

698

696

178

173

175

179

185

171 174

181

172

186183

170

177180

184182

187

176

77

75 76

74

79

78

539

542

545 546

548

547

543

537

538

549

541540

544

550

725

723

721

722716720

717719

714

726

711712

713

715 724

710

718

557

563

559

556

560

564

561

558

562

410409

412

407

411

413

414

408

489

483 487

482

479

492

484

485

493

478

488

481

494490

486

480

491

198

188

200191

201

192

190

202

195

193197

194 199

196

189

607606

605

602

597

599601

608

598

595603

596604

600

31

3329

35

27 3028

26

32

3634

94

101

107

97

96

102103

93

100

106

95

105

104

98

92

99

769

764

770

768

765

772

767766

771

416

417

419

415

418

677672

664

673

671 674678

669

665

663

676

667668

670

675

666

808814 807813

809

810

812

811

340

341

343

345

338

344

339 342

497500499

496

503498502

495

501

327

323

329328

324 326325

430

422

428427

425

420

432

426429

423

421

424

431

159

155

154

156157

160

153

158

152

8889

90

91

81

84

8785

8380

8286

763

760

753

752755

748

756

757

749

754

759

762

750

751

758

761

579

574580

572571

566

568

570

578

569

577

567

573

565

575576

644

648

643

636

640

630

635

646647

631

645641

637

632638

634633 639

642

399

396

402401

400

398 397

272

263

277

262

275

266

269

264

274

273

267268

261

265

276

259

271

270

260

380

377

379381

374375

378376

373

730

732

738

742

747745

741

746

729

735

731

736744

734737

739

728

740743

727

733

389 384

386388

383385

387

382

5756

59

61

60

58

330 333

336

334335332

331

337

357

360

356

355 354

359362

353

361

358

371

368

364

366

372

363

367

370369

365

817819

816

820

818

821

815

456

450

454

453455

457452

451

661

659

657

653

658

649

655

650

652654

662

656660

651

229

234

230

238

239

228235

232

231237

226

225

233

236

227

392

393

391

394

395

390

296

297

300

298295

294

301

299

122123124

125126

120121

623

624

627

619

626

621

618

620

628629

625 622

405

404

406403

164

167161

168

165 169

162

163

166

133

129

128

136

134

131

135

127

130

132

703701

704702

705708

706709 707

6466

70

7368

65

71 677269

6362

787

793

798

788

792

789

794

790 797791

795

796

46

4945

40

44

3938

43

4142

48

47

37

20

21

17

24

13

1625

2319

18

22

15

1412

203

206

207208

205204

209

446

449438448

437

439

435434

443

444445436 442

441433

447

440

309

302

307

321315

316

320

308

317

312

314

304

311

318322

313

310

303305

306

319

51

5354

52

50

55

4

11

7

2

10

6

9

3

8

1

5

612611

617

614

610

615

616609

613

781

784

783

786785

782

210

221220

215

224222219

214

211216

223

218 212

213217

554

552

555

551 553

588

581

591

584

594

592

583

590

593

587

589

585

582

586

245250

253

244

246

257

248

249

243 255

241

242254

247240

256

251252

258

806

802

800

805

799

804

803

801

535520

516

530523

522

524

533527519

514

528517

534

525526

531

529515

532521

518

513289

282279

287

292

280

278

284

291

283

285

290

281

288

286

293

778

773780

775776

779

774

777

(970,1030](910,970](850,910][730,850]

Sex Ratio 0-6 Years 1991

There were no district below 850 CSR in 1991, in 2001 one district fell in the category

while as by 2011 4 districts had CSR

less or equal to 850. Likewise in next

category of ‘850-910’ there were 25

districts in 1991 and it rose to 30 in

2001 and 39 in 2011. In the higher

category of ‘910-970’ there were 48

districts and it declined to 44 in 2001

and 32 in 2011. There were two

districts in 1991 which had CSR more

than 970 and subsequent year none

were left in this category. Patterns

clearly revel that western districts had

low CSRs and Eastern districts had high

CSR. Bundelkhand districts were more

similar to those of Western districts

while Central region districts more or less featured like Eastern districts. There is a

clear East and West divide in as far as CSR in Uttar Pradesh is concerned.

Block level CSR in Uttar Pradesh

There are 821 blocks in Uttar Pradesh for which the recasted data of CSR has been

generated. In 1991

there were seven blocks

with CSR more than

1000; Dhaurehra (Kheri:

1023), Kakwan (Kanpur

Nagar: 1022), Nighasan

(Kheri: 1019), Isanagar

(Kheri: 1011), Bijua

(Kheri) (1006),

Amaniganj (Faizabad:

1004) and Chopan

(Sonbhadra: 1002). The

bottom five blocks were

Islamnagar (Budaun:

842), Madanpur

(Firozabad: 842), Bah

(Agra: 842), Jagner

(Agra: 842) and

Chakarnagar (Etawah:

848). In 2001 the CSRS varied between 799 and 1004. Among top five blocks in 2001

there was only one with CSR value greater than 1000; Mihinpurwa (Bahraich: 1004)

followed by Jamunaha (Shrawasti: 999), Shoharatgarh (Siddharthnagar: 991),

Isanagar (Kheri: 990) and Dudhahi (Kushinagar: 990). The bottom five blocks were

Shamli (Shamli: 799), Nanauta (Saharanpur: 827), Muradnagar (Ghaziabad: 830),

Baghara (Muzaffarnagar: 830) and Janikhurd (Meerut: 835). In 2011 the CSR among

blocks ranged between 731 and 966. Blocks with highest CSR in 2011 may be listed

Page 5: Extended Abstract Decomposing geographical variation of

5

143

140

150

141139

138

148142

144151

137

145149

146147

114

115116

110

113117

118119

111109

112

108

464

462

467 471473

459

465 469468

458

477476

460

474

463470

472

466

461

475

512

505510

509

507508

511 506

504

348

350

352

351

347346

349

681

679

685684

683

689

680

697

682

695699

691

692

686

700

693

694687

688690

698

696

178

173

175

179

185

171 174

181

172

186183

170

177180

184182

187

176

77

75 76

74

79

78

539

542

545 546

548

547

543

537

538

549

541540

544

550

725

723

721

722716720

717719

714

726

711712

713

715 724

710

718

557

563

559

556

560

564

561

558

562

410409

412

407

411

413

414

408

489

483 487

482

479

492

484

485

493

478

488

481

494490

486

480

491

198

188

200191

201

192

190

202

195

193197

194 199

196

189

607606

605

602

597

599601

608

598

595603

596604

600

31

3329

35

27 3028

26

32

3634

94

101

107

97

96

102103

93

100

106

95

105

104

98

92

99

769

764

770

768

765

772

767766

771

416

417

419

415

418

677672

664

673

671 674678

669

665

663

676

667668

670

675

666

808814 807813

809

810

812

811

340

341

343

345

338

344

339 342

497500499

496

503498502

495

501

327

323

329328

324 326325

430

422

428427

425

420

432

426429

423

421

424

431

159

155

154

156157

160

153

158

152

8889

90

91

81

84

8785

8380

8286

763

760

753

752755

748

756

757

749

754

759

762

750

751

758

761

579

574580

572571

566

568

570

578

569

577

567

573

565

575576

644

648

643

636

640

630

635

646647

631

645641

637

632638

634633 639

642

399

396

402401

400

398 397

272

263

277

262

275

266

269

264

274

273

267268

261

265

276

259

271

270

260

380

377

379381

374375

378376

373

730

732

738

742

747745

741

746

729

735

731

736744

734737

739

728

740743

727

733

389 384

386388

383385

387

382

5756

59

61

60

58

330 333

336

334335332

331

337

357

360

356

355 354

359362

353

361

358

371

368

364

366

372

363

367

370369

365

817819

816

820

818

821

815

456

450

454

453455

457452

451

661

659

657

653

658

649

655

650

652654

662

656660

651

229

234

230

238

239

228235

232

231237

226

225

233

236

227

392

393

391

394

395

390

296

297

300

298295

294

301

299

122123124

125126

120121

623

624

627

619

626

621

618

620

628629

625 622

405

404

406403

164

167161

168

165 169

162

163

166

133

129

128

136

134

131

135

127

130

132

703701

704702

705708

706709 707

6466

70

7368

65

71 677269

6362

787

793

798

788

792

789

794

790 797791

795

796

46

4945

40

44

3938

43

4142

48

47

37

20

21

17

24

13

1625

2319

18

22

15

1412

203

206

207208

205204

209

446

449438448

437

439

435434

443

444445436 442

441433

447

440

309

302

307

321315

316

320

308

317

312

314

304

311

318322

313

310

303305

306

319

51

5354

52

50

55

4

11

7

2

10

6

9

3

8

1

5

612611

617

614

610

615

616609

613

781

784

783

786785

782

210

221220

215

224222219

214

211216

223

218 212

213217

554

552

555

551 553

588

581

591

584

594

592

583

590

593

587

589

585

582

586

245250

253

244

246

257

248

249

243 255

241

242254

247240

256

251252

258

806

802

800

805

799

804

803

801

535520

516

530523

522

524

533527519

514

528517

534

525526

531

529515

532521

518

513289

282279

287

292

280

278

284

291

283

285

290

281

288

286

293

778

773780

775776

779

774

777

(970,1030](910,970](850,910][730,850]

Sex Ratio 0-6 Years 2001

143

140

150

141139

138

148142

144151

137

145149

146147

114

115116

110

113117

118119

111109

112

108

464

462

467 471473

459

465 469468

458

477476

460

474

463470

472

466

461

475

512

505510

509

507508

511 506

504

348

350

352

351

347346

349

681

679

685684

683

689

680

697

682

695699

691

692

686

700

693

694687

688690

698

696

178

173

175

179

185

171 174

181

172

186183

170

177180

184182

187

176

77

75 76

74

79

78

539

542

545 546

548

547

543

537

538

549

541540

544

550

725

723

721

722716720

717719

714

726

711712

713

715 724

710

718

557

563

559

556

560

564

561

558

562

410409

412

407

411

413

414

408

489

483 487

482

479

492

484

485

493

478

488

481

494490

486

480

491

198

188

200191

201

192

190

202

195

193197

194 199

196

189

607606

605

602

597

599601

608

598

595603

596604

600

31

3329

35

27 3028

26

32

3634

94

101

107

97

96

102103

93

100

106

95

105

104

98

92

99

769

764

770

768

765

772

767766

771

416

417

419

415

418

677672

664

673

671 674678

669

665

663

676

667668

670

675

666

808814 807813

809

810

812

811

340

341

343

345

338

344

339 342

497500499

496

503498502

495

501

327

323

329328

324 326325

430

422

428427

425

420

432

426429

423

421

424

431

159

155

154

156157

160

153

158

152

8889

90

91

81

84

8785

8380

8286

763

760

753

752755

748

756

757

749

754

759

762

750

751

758

761

579

574580

572571

566

568

570

578

569

577

567

573

565

575576

644

648

643

636

640

630

635

646647

631

645641

637

632638

634633 639

642

399

396

402401

400

398 397

272

263

277

262

275

266

269

264

274

273

267268

261

265

276

259

271

270

260

380

377

379381

374375

378376

373

730

732

738

742

747745

741

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729

735

731

736744

734737

739

728

740743

727

733

389 384

386388

383385

387

382

5756

59

61

60

58

330 333

336

334335332

331

337

357

360

356

355 354

359362

353

361

358

371

368

364

366

372

363

367

370369

365

817819

816

820

818

821

815

456

450

454

453455

457452

451

661

659

657

653

658

649

655

650

652654

662

656660

651

229

234

230

238

239

228235

232

231237

226

225

233

236

227

392

393

391

394

395

390

296

297

300

298295

294

301

299

122123124

125126

120121

623

624

627

619

626

621

618

620

628629

625 622

405

404

406403

164

167161

168

165 169

162

163

166

133

129

128

136

134

131

135

127

130

132

703701

704702

705708

706709 707

6466

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7368

65

71 677269

6362

787

793

798

788

792

789

794

790 797791

795

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46

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40

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3938

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4142

48

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20

21

17

24

13

1625

2319

18

22

15

1412

203

206

207208

205204

209

446

449438448

437

439

435434

443

444445436 442

441433

447

440

309

302

307

321315

316

320

308

317

312

314

304

311

318322

313

310

303305

306

319

51

5354

52

50

55

4

11

7

2

10

6

9

3

8

1

5

612611

617

614

610

615

616609

613

781

784

783

786785

782

210

221220

215

224222219

214

211216

223

218 212

213217

554

552

555

551 553

588

581

591

584

594

592

583

590

593

587

589

585

582

586

245250

253

244

246

257

248

249

243 255

241

242254

247240

256

251252

258

806

802

800

805

799

804

803

801

535520

516

530523

522

524

533527519

514

528517

534

525526

531

529515

532521

518

513289

282279

287

292

280

278

284

291

283

285

290

281

288

286

293

778

773780

775776

779

774

777

(970,1030](910,970](850,910][730,850]

Sex Ratio 0-6 Years 2011

as Dhani (Mahrajganj: 966), Mavai (Faizabad: 965), Isanagar (Kheri: 964),

Semariyawan (Sant

Kabir Nagar: 964) and

Mihinpurwa (Bahraich:

963) and bottom five

blocks were Sandila

(Hardoi: 731), Shamli

(Shamli: 811), Jewar

(Gautam Buddha Nagar:

818), Rohta (Meerut:

820) and Chhaprauli

(Baghpat: 821). The

maps of block level CSR

present a picture more

or less in tune to the

districts with few

variations. There seems

a clear East and West

demarcation in the

patterns of the CSR

among the blocks in

2001 which is similar to that of 1991. The names of blocks are represented in serial

numbers listed in the appendix-A.

In 1991 there were only six block which had CSR below 850, this rose to 23 blocks in

2001 and 31 in 2011. In

next category ‘850-910’

the number of blocks

increased to 266 in

2001 and 375 in 2011

from 218 in 1991. In

next two higher

categories the number

of block declined from

1991 to 2011. In highest

category of ‘970-1030’

there were 56 blocks in

1991 which got reduced

to 39 in 2001 and none

in 2011 (Table 4). The

worsening of sex ratio is

prevalent in almost all

the regions and districts

of the state.

Noteworthy the phenomenon of low CSR is not limited to Western region of the

state but it has also swept to the blocks falling in eastern region with time.

Page 6: Extended Abstract Decomposing geographical variation of

6

(113.1,118.4](111,113.1](109.3,111][104.8,109.3]

Sex ratio at Birth- UP HMIS [2011-12 to 2016-17]

Present scenario in sex ratio at birth

The health management information system (HMIS) data has been great source of

data on health process indicators. The

quality of data has been improving and

has reached a satisfactory level on many

counts. HMIS items include the number

of births of males and females within

the health facility jurisdiction. This data

has a limitation that number of births

reported is mainly from the public

health facilities or births at home but

tend to capture a fairly sizeable

proportion of births in the sate. The

obtained for the districts of Uttar

Pradesh has been pooled for past 3/5

years and average picture of sex ratio at

birth has been presented in Table 7.

Ideally the SRB has to be 105 but in Uttar Pradesh in past 6 years average works out

to be 111.6. Only four of the districts- Meerut, Bulandshahr, Chitrakoot and Pilibhit

had SRB between 104 and 106 remaining all the district had SRB more than 107 and

118. The highest SRB has been observed in Aligarh (118.4), Hamirpur (117.3),

Ambedkar Nagar (116.7), Mathura (115.1) and Firozabad (114.8).

Decline in CSR over two decades

At micro level 54 percent of villages experienced a decline in CSR over two decades

while as only half a percent maintained a same level and 45.4 percent registered an

increase in the CSR. In urban areas more than two thirds units have shown decline in

CSR and remaining one third have registered an increase. As far as district level is

concerned there are eight districts; Kanshiram Nagar, Moradabad, Firozabad,

Ambedkar Nagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Balrampur, Sambhal and Shrawasti which

registered an increase in CSR in two decades and remaining 67 districts experienced

decline in CSR in the similar period. Top five districts as far as decline is concerned

are Kanpur Nagar (66), Jhansi (53), Meerut (51), Gautam Buddha Nagar (49) and

Shamli (48). If considered for the blocks in Uttar Pradesh 163 block registered an

increase in the CSR and six remained same in twenty years’ time period. There were

652 blocks which have experienced a decline and top five blocks in respect to decline

are Sandila (Hardoi: 198), Kakwan (Kanpur Nagar: 126), Kaurihar (Allahabad: 119),

Meerut (Meerut: 97) and Jewar (Gautam Buddha Nagar: 91).

As expected the decline in the CSR has not been uniform; the rank correlation

(according to population size) for rural areas during 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 pairs

of villages was as small as 0.033 and 0.053 but in urban areas for same pairs of towns

they were 0.205 and 0.312. If we move up in the level i.e. block level (restricted to

rural areas) the rank correlations were 0.673 and 0.760. Similarly for the district level

the values of rank correlations are 0.803 and 0.929 for 1991-2001 and 2001-2011

pairs of districts.

Page 7: Extended Abstract Decomposing geographical variation of

7

Looking through the background characteristics it may be noted that proportion of

child population is negatively associated with the decline in CSR in the state. Increase

in village/town size to an extent is positively associated with decline in CSR. Urban

areas experienced twice as much decline in CSR compared to the rural areas.

Proportion SC/ST does not have much bearing on decline in CSR in state. Increase in

female literacy is found to be positively associated with the decline in CSR in the

state.

Multilevel analysis depicts that most of the variation in CSR is explained at the village

level a very small proportion about two percent is explained by district level and less

than one percent at the block level.

Table : Regression of change CSR (2011-1991) in Uttar Pradesh

Independent variables β SE(β) t P>t

Difference in proportion 0-6 year population

(2011-1991) -0.369 0.075 -4.95 0.000

diff_rat_~91 2.45 0.262 9.35 0.000

CSR 1991 -0.978 0.003 -

345.72 0.000

Female literacy 1991 -0.78 0.069 -11.31 0.000

Ratio of 0-6 population in 1991 2.491 0.319 7.8 0.000

Sector (indicator) Urban (Rural suppressed) 4.741 8.694 0.55 0.586

Size of village/ town (indicator: size class 1

‘<4000 suppressed) Size class (4000-8000) -17.199 2.789 -6.17 0.000

Size class (8000+) -16.47 6.041 -2.73 0.006

Constant 888.896 8.165 108.87 0.000

R-square= 0.646 F(5, 95584)=34862.32;

Prob>F=0.0000