export diversification challenges for carec countries · carec region: 11 countries 320 million...
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CAREC REGION: 11 COUNTRIES 320 MILLION POPULATION 16 443 290 SQUARE KILOMETER AREA …BILLION USD ECONOMIC POWER
10/18/10 This is a Footer
ECONOMIC POWERS OF CAREC COUNTRIES ARE DIFFERENT
10/18/10
4
National Development Institute of
Mongolia
Country GDP, 2017 (billion
$)
GDP per
capita, 2017 ($)
GDP growth,
2017 (%)
Economic
complexiy
index
Trade with CAREC
countries as percent
of total trade
Trade with CAREC
countries
AFGANISTAN 19,500,000,000 550.1 2.7 n.a 45.60% 414,500,000$
AZERBAIJAN 40,700,000,000 4 135.1 0.1 -0.65 15.65% 3,596,800,000$
CHINA 12,237,700,000,000 8 827.0 6.9 0.69 1.4%
GEORGIA 15,100,000,000 4 045.4 4.8 -0.06 27.8%
KAZAKHSTAN 162,900,000,000 9 030.3 4.1 0.09 19.1%
KYRGYZ 7,600,000,000 1 220.5 4.6 -0.29 33.6%
MONGOLIA 11,400,000,000 3 717.5 5.3 -0.79 76.0%
PAKISTAN 305,000,000,000 1 547.9 5.7 -0.86 9.0%
TAJIKSTAN 7,100,000,000 801.1 7.6 -1.1 39.0%
TURKMENISTAN 37,900,000,000 6 586.6 6.5 -1.2 88.8%
UZBEKISTAN 49,700,000,000 1 533.9 5.3 -0.85 28.0%
POPULATIONS AND WORKFORCE CAPABILITIES ARE DIFFERENT
10/18/10
5
National Development Institute of
Mongolia
Country Population GDP GDP per capita Population number in
poverty Poverty (%)
Human
Development
Index
AFGANISTAN 35,530,000 19,500,000,000 550.1$ 18,887,537 54.5% 0.498
AZERBAIJAN 9,854,000 40,700,000,000 4 135.1$ 501,972 5.4% 0.757
CHINA 1,386,400,000 12,237,700,000,000 8 827.0$ 42,978,245 3.1% 0.752
GEORGIA 3,700,000 15,100,000,000 4 045.4$ 816,432 21.9% 0.780
KAZAKHSTAN 18,000,000 162,900,000,000 9 030.3$ 450,944 2.5% 0.800
KYRGYZ 6,200,000 7,600,000,000 1 220.5$ 1,586,739 25.6% 0.672
MONGOLIA 3,100,000 11,400,000,000 3 717.5$ 842,727 27.4% 0.741
PAKISTAN 197,000,000 305,000,000,000 1 547.9$ 46,019,464 24.3% 0.562
TAJIKSTAN 8,900,000 7,100,000,000 801.1$ 2,675,727 31.3% 0.650
TURKMENISTAN 5,800,000 37,900,000,000 6 586.6$ n.a 0.706
UZBEKISTAN 32,400,000 49,700,000,000 1 533.9$ 4,264291 14.1% 0.710
BACKGROUND INFORMATION: 1990-1999 INITIAL TRANSITION PERIOD FOR TRANSITION COUNTRIES
10/18/10
(50.00)
(40.00)
(30.00)
(20.00)
(10.00)
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
GD
P g
row
th
Azerbaijan
China
Georgia
Kazakstan
Kyrgyz
Mongolia
Pakistan
tajikstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
BACKGROUND INFORMATION: 2000-2010 SECOND TRANSITION PERIOD FOR TRANSITION COUNTRIES
10/18/10
(10.00)
(5.00)
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GD
P g
row
th
afganistaN
Azerbaijan
China
Georgia
Kazakstan
Kyrgyz
Mongolia
Pakistan
tajikstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
BACKGROUND INFORMATION: 2010-2018 PERIOD AFTER TRANSITION
10/18/10
(5.00)
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GD
P g
row
th
afganistaN
Azerbaijan
China
Georgia
Kazakstan
Kyrgyz
Mongolia
Pakistan
tajikstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
EXPORT OF CAREC COUNTRIES
10/18/10
Country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Afganistan
0.21
1.13
0.47
0.45
0.39
0.64
0.74
0.78
0.99
0.49
Azerbaijan
47.76
14.70
21.36
26.57
23.91
23.98
21.83
12.73
13.46
13.81
China
1,574.0
1,313.4
1,726.9
2,024.9
2,111.6
2,237.0
2,359.3
2,375.7
2,257.5
2,368.1
Georgia
1.93
1.81
2.59
3.35
3.31
3.43
3.58
2.77
2.54
3.20
Kazakhstan
45.85
40.46
55.37
79.06
83.77
74.21
68.10
40.68
32.86
43.83
Kyrgyz
1.40
1.09
1.65
1.99
1.69
1.73
1.09
1.30
1.03
1.93
Mongolia
1.92
1.56
2.86
3.95
3.97
4.64
6.31
5.00
5.79
6.94
Pakistan
22.71
20.12
23.75
28.74
24.59
27.82
27.97
26.01
23.78
19.59
Tajikstan
0.89
0.79
0.92
0.88
0.89
0.78
0.70
0.80
0.72
0.93
Turkmenistan
1.84
1.17
2.19
6.46
9.63
10.53
10.81
8.49
6.84
7.16
Uzbekistan
4.46
2.76
5.11
5.96
4.78
7.42
6.14
5.66
6.85
8.38
billion US dollars
not covered
EXPORT GROWTH IN CAREC COUNTRIES ARE EVEN
10/18/10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Afganistan 538% 42% 96% 87% 164% 116% 105% 127% 49% 147%
Azerbaijan 31% 145% 124% 90% 100% 91% 58% 106% 103% 94%
China 83% 131% 117% 104% 106% 105% 101% 95% 105% 105%
Georgia 94% 143% 129% 99% 104% 104% 77% 92% 126% 108%
Kazakhstan 88% 137% 143% 106% 89% 92% 60% 81% 133% 103%
Kyrgyz 78% 151% 121% 85% 102% 63% 119% 79% 187% 110%
Mongolia 81% 183% 138% 101% 117% 136% 79% 116% 120% 119%
Pakistan 89% 118% 121% 86% 113% 101% 93% 91% 82% 99%
Tajikstan 89% 116% 96% 101% 88% 90% 114% 90% 129% 101%
Turkmenistan 64% 187% 295% 149% 109% 103% 79% 81% 105% 130%
Uzbekistan 62% 185% 117% 80% 155% 83% 92% 121% 122% 113%
118% 140% 136% 99% 113% 98% 89% 98% 115% 112%
EXPORT OF CAREC COUNTRIES ARE DEPENDENT FROM ONE MARKET
10/18/10
0.49 13.81
2,368.10
3.20 43.83 1.93 6.94 19.59 0.93 7.16 8.38
Afganistan Azerbaijan China Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Mongolia Pakistan Tajikstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Volume of export CAREC-2017 /billion US dollars/
0.49
13.81
3.20
43.83
1.93
6.94
19.59
0.93
7.16 8.38
Afganistan Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Mongolia Pakistan Tajikstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Volume of export CAREC-2017 /billion dollars/ without PRC
EXPORT OF AZERBAIJAN
10/18/10
EXPORT OF AFGHANISTAN 2017
KAZ $ 1,968,194.28 0.22%
UZB - -
CHN $ 2,861,675.63 0.33%
TJK - -
TKM - -
KGZ $ 237,748.37 0.03%
GEO $ 1,167.00 0.00%
MNG - -
AZE - -
PAK $ 392,512,891.80 45.0%
Other countries 54.4%
2017
KAZ $ 132,630,359.76 1.70%
UZB $ 20,638,186.37 0.26%
CHN $ 723,518,904.51 9.10%
TJK $ 45,874.78 0.00%
TKM $ 96,548,309.55 1.20%
KGZ $ 1,243,486.99 0.02%
GEO $ 261,782,841.48 3.30%
MNG $ 84,191.02 0.00%
AFG - -
PAK $ 5,842,587.13 0.07%
OTHERS 84.35%
China-2017
10/18/10
2017
KAZ $ 5,798,781,583.50 0.24%
UZB $ 2,714,922,790.00 0.11%
AZE $ 723,518,904.51 0.03%
TJK $ 1,299,207,491.00 0.06%
TKM $ 361,286,142.00 0.02%
KGZ $ 2,627,648,056.11 0.11%
GEO $ 765,129,855.69 0.03%
MNG $ 1,419,985,578.16 0.06%
AZE $ 723,518,904.51 0.03%
PAK $ 18,041,524,848.00 0.76%
OTHERS 98.6%
Georgia-2017
2017
KAZ $ 52,386,528.1 1.60%
UZB $ 64,131,973.0 2.0%
AZE $ 261,782,841.5 8.20%
TJK $ 3,375,136.0 0.1%
TKM $ 21,543,297.0 0.7%
KGZ $ 9,099,464.2 0.28%
CHN $ 215,821,479.7 6.70%
MNG $ 1,208,305.6 0.0%
AZE $ 261,782,841.5 8.2%
PAK $ 779,274.0 0.0%
OTHERS 72.2%
Kazakhstan-2017
10/18/10
Kyrgyzstan-2017
2017
KAZ $ 377,301,513 20%
UZB $ 121,562,493 6.30%
CHN $ 101,443,236 5.30%
TJK $ 24,262,676 1.30%
TKM $ 4,890,695 0.25%
AFG $ 2,536,957 0.13%
GEO $ 2,267,022 0.12%
MNG $ 1,444,234 0.08%
AZE $ 1,245,268 0.07%
PAK $ 265,385 0.01%
Others 66.45%
2017
GEO $ 30,681,780 0.07%
UZB $ 1,250,223,547 2.90%
AZE $ 132,630,360 0.30%
TJK $ 458,288,027 1.00%
TKM $ 55,069,778 0.13%
KGZ $ 535,195,879 1.20%
CHN $ 5,900,255,068 13.00%
MNG $ 71,017,865 0.16%
AZE $ 132,630,360 0.30%
PAK $ 5,536,903 0.01%
OTHERS 80.93%
Mongolia-2017
2017
GEO - -
UZB $ 30,750.00 0.00%
AZE $ 84,191.02 0.00%
TJK - -
TKM - -
KGZ $ 268,683.46 0.00%
CHN $ 5,276,430,407.97 76.00%
KAZ $ 2,772,406.97 0.04%
AZE $ 84,191.02 0.00%
PAK $ 216,240.00 0.00%
OTHERS 24%
Tajikistan-2017
10/18/10
Turkmenistan-2017
2017
GEO $ 3,000.00 0.00%
UZB - -
AZE $ 45,874.78 0.00%
PAK - -
TKM - -
KGZ $ 13,848,660.45 1.50%
CHN $ 46,211,644.76 5.00%
KAZ $ 302,901,331.90 33.00%
AZE $ 45,874.78 0.00%
MNG $ 2,565.17 0.00%
OTHERS 60.49%
2017
GEO $ 119,237,259.00 1.70%
UZB - -
AZE $ 96,548,309.55 1.30%
PAK - -
TJK - -
KGZ $ 451,466.41 0.01%
CHN $ 6,006,584,801.96 84.00%
KAZ $ 41,112,056.44 0.57%
AZE $ 96,548,309.55 1.30%
MNG - -
OTHERS 11.12%
Uzbekistan-2017 2017
GEO $ 6,915,730.00 0.08%
TJK - -
AZE $ 20,638,186.37 0.25%
PAK - -
TKM - -
KGZ $ 160,392,504.54 1.90%
CHN $ 1,401,740,855.65 17.00%
KAZ $ 714,191,028.48 8.50%
AZE $ 20,638,186.37 0.25%
MNG $ 769,040.85 0.01%
OTHERS 72.01%
10/18/10
10/18/10
Pakistan-2017
2017
GEO $ 3,124,115.00 0%
UZB - -
AZE $ 5,842,587.13 0%
TJK - -
TKM - -
KGZ $ 4,276,106.68 0%
CHN $ 1,777,073,467.90 9%
KAZ $ 22,259,711.80 0%
AZE $ 5,842,587.13 0%
MNG $ 1,502,310.18 0%
OTHERS 91%
What are constraints for CAREC countries export divesification
Weak external position, high budget deficit, high inflation rate, high debt service ratio as percentage of GDP (interest payment), high volatility of exchange rates, uneven wealth share
10/18/10 National Development Institute of Mongolia 18
IS TRADE DEFICIT HIGH IN CAREC COUNTRIES?
10/18/10 National Development Institute of Mongolia 19 -53%
-33%
-30%
-16%
-7%
-6%
7%
8%
10%
15%
21%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
KYZ
GEO
TJK
AFG
PAK
UZB
CHN
KAZ
TKM
AZE
MNG
Trade balance 2017 (% of GDP)
IS TRADE DEFICIT HIGH IN CAREC COUNTRIES?
20
-98.16%
-53.69%
-42.71%
-37.51%
-14.34%
-11.92%
-10.45%
0.14%
12.61%
20.37%
36.67%
KYZ
TJK
AFG
GEO
MNG
UZB
PAK
TKM
CHN
KAZ
AZE
Trade balance average 2008-2017 (% of GDP)
TRADE BALANCE IS NEGATIVE CAREC COUNTRIES
21 10/18/10
$(18.99)
$(5.46)
$(4.53)
$(4.32)
$(3.92)
$(2.63)
$(0.24)
$1.16
$12.10
$21.01
$770.38
$(100.00) $- $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 $400.00 $500.00 $600.00 $700.00 $800.00 $900.00
PAK
AFG
KYZ
GEO
UZB
TJK
MNG
TKM
AZE
KAZ
CHN
Average 2008-2017, billion USD
$(18.99)
$(5.46)
$(4.53)
$(4.32)
$(3.92)
$(2.63)
$(0.24)
$1.16
$12.10
$21.01
$(25.00) $(20.00) $(15.00) $(10.00) $(5.00) $- $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00
PAK
AFG
KYZ
GEO
UZB
TJK
MNG
TKM
AZE
KAZ
Average 2008-2017, billion USD (without PRC)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DEFICIT IS NOT COVERED BY
REMITTANCES
22 10/18/10
Current account balance
(BoP, current US$)
Personal remittances
(current US$)
Percentage of remittances in
current account balance
Afganistan -4,227,132,365.8 378,240,417.2 9.0% not covered
Azerbaijan 1,684,559,000.0 1,133,371,000.0 67.3% partially covered
China 164,886,647,435.2 28,666,122,721.2 17.4% not covered
Georgia -1,332,212,424.1 1,793,945,160.5 134.7% covered
Kazakhstan -5,389,528,405.6 355,001,271.5 6.6% not covered
Kyrgyz -522,328,645.0 2,485,778,06.0 475.9% covered
Mongolia -1,155,443,731.6 273,364,998.1 23.7% not covered
Pakistan -16,251,040,000.0 19,689,000,000.0 121.2% covered
Tajikstan 150,599,803.2 2,236,691,733.1 1485.2% covered
Turkmenistan .. 10,305,844.8 -
INFLATION IS HIGH IN CAREC COUNTRIES
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mongolia
Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
China
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Republic
Pakistan
Tajikistan
23
National
Development
Institute of
Mongolia 10/18/10
FDI IN CAREC COUNTRIES in million USD
24
National
Development
Institute of
Mongolia 10/18/10
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Afghanistan Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Republic Mongolia Pakistan Tajikistan
Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
290,928.4
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
mln US $
China
FDI in CAREC countries (without PRC)
25
National
Development
Institute of
Mongolia 10/18/10
-10,000.0
-5,000.0
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
mln US $
Afghanistan Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic
Mongolia Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN CAREC COUNTRIES
6.50 0.25 0.88 0.33
67.21
14.22
443.57
22.55
2.12
Afghanistan Azerbaijan China Georgia Kazakhstan KyrgyzRepublic
Mongolia Pakistan Tajikistan
Std. Dev as % of Mean
Afghanistan Azerbaijan China Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Mongolia Pakistan Tajikistan10/18/10
SHARE OF BUDGET IN GDP IN CAREC COUNTRIES
24.2
8
18.6
7
19.7
5
20.1
9
18.7
2
19.5
0
18.2
4
16.7
8
23.1
4
21.6
6
24.2
2
22.5
0
25.3
0
26.0
7
31.4
4 34.5
1
31.9
6
33.7
3 36.6
4
37.7
8
36.3
7
38.6
8
35.3
8
35.7
1
34.2
3
21.21
18.11 17.44
18.75 17.13 17.63
16.52 17.25
16.14
18.05
16.10 15.18
15.94 17.06
19.48
21.84
19.27 20.34
19.35
21.66 21.82
20.10 19.77 19.94 21.28 21.77
22.63
49.59
33.98
36.83
43.95
39.91
44.04
42.17 41.18
38.38
43.41
39.53
36.86
35.19
30.98 31.13
33.20 34.44
33.41
30.41 30.94 31.23 31.12 29.94
28.81 27.31
30.94
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Azerbaijan China, People's Republic of Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Mongolia Pakistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
27 10/18/10
While tax remains still comparatively low, budget income has been increased due to
increase in international market price fluctuation, FDI, and investment in mining.
Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
346.0
270.6
245.0
206.4
23.0 20.1 19.1 16.2 7.7 7.5 6.8 6.9 8.7 9.1 7.8 7.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
40019
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
% o
f G
DP
Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Republic
Mongolia
Pakistan
Turkmenistan
28
National
Development
Institute of
Mongolia 10/18/10
SOME CAREC COUNTRIES HAVE HIGH DEBT SERVICE RATIO AS PERCENTAGE OF EXPORT,
NATURALLY GROWTH OF GDP OF YEAR DEPENDS ON INCREASE IN FDI
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
-8 -3 2 7 12
De
bt serv
ice r
atio a
s p
erc
en
tage o
f expo
rt
GDP growth
Mongolia
10/18/10
Moody’s rating in CAREC countries
Azerbaijan China Georgia Kazakhstan KyrgyzRepublic
Mongolia Pakistan Tajikstan Uzbekistan
Moody
Aa3
Ba2
Baa3
B2
B3 B3 B3
B1
Good
Upper middle
Lower
middle
RISKY
HIGH RISK
BAD
Sources: Moody.com
Ba2 Good
ARE THERE ANY FACTORS SUPPORTING ECONOMIC
DIVERSITY
(Changes in GDP, investment, trade and other indicators are not related, policy
coordination is weak)
National Development
Institute of Mongolia 31
GROSS SAVINGS (% OF GDP) LEVEL IS DIFFERENT IN CAREC COUNTRIES
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China Turkmenistan Afghanistan Georgia
Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Mongolia 32 10/18/10
Interest rate spread (lending rate minus deposit rate, %) has been
high until 2017 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mongolia Afghanistan
Azerbaijan China
Georgia Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan
Tajikistan Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
33
National
Develop
ment
Institute
of
Mongoli
a
10/18/10
Interest rate spread (lending rate minus deposit rate, %) is still
among high
34 10/18/10
Aze
rba
ijan
, 8
.11
%
Chin
a, 2
.85
%
Ge
org
ia, 1
.83
%
Kyrg
yz R
ep
ub
lic, 1
7.0
7%
Mo
ngo
lia, 7
.05
%
Pa
kis
tan
, 3
.73
%
Ta
jikis
tan
, 2
6.0
4%
2017
INDUSTRY, VALUE ADDED (% OF GDP) IS NOT HIGH IN MOST OF
CAREC COUNTRIES 3
7.5
9
36
.39
49
.61
42
.34
28
.87
37
.56
29
.17
25
.91
24
.96
27
.46
35
.28
36
.19
35
.14
33
.11
30
.92
27
.37
27
.36
26
.43
24
.56
24
.51
24
.98
22
.47
22
.04
22
.96
22
.30
24
.39
27
.24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
China Mongolia Turkmenistan Afghanistan
Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic
Pakistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan 35 10/18/10
PRODUCT SPACES OF CAREC COUNTRIES
`
37 10/18/10
2008
Based on calculation of 2011, the product
spaces with different proximities did not show
much change. The difference between 2000
and 2008 diffusion is related to textile and
clothing sector change.
It does not seem that economy of Mongolia
had significant structural change since 2008,
therefore calculation again proximities based
on data of recent years.
Source: Calculation of Enkhbaigali.B
In calculations, we used raw data from
COMTRADE and calculated RCA’s using Balassa
definition.
Proximities and PRODY, EXPY’s has been
calculated according to method used by
C.A.Hidalgo, B.Klinger, A.L.Barabási, R.Hausmann
using data of 779 products of 224 countries.
(The Product Space Conditions the Development of
Nations, 2007), (What you export matters, 2007)