exploring opportunity occupations - wordpress.com · 2019-05-06 · exploring opportunity...

ExploringOpportunityOccupationsMay6,2019

Presenter:KyleD.Fee,SeniorPolicyAnalyst,CommunityDevelopment,FederalReserveBankofCleveland

For more information about Ohio Workforce Coalition, email Rebecca Kusner at [email protected]

Kyle D. FeeSenior Policy Analyst, Community Development

*Keith Wardrip and Lisa Nelson

Opportunity Occupations Revisited: Exploring Jobs for Sub-Baccalaureate Workers*

DisclaimerThese are my views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.

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Outline

• Background Information- Community Development at the Federal Reserve - Motivation for report- Terms and Classifying occupations

• Report Findings- What occupations offer the most opportunity employment? - Are employer education expectations fixed? - How does opportunity vary across metros? - What helps explain the differences in opportunity employment across metros ?

• Opportunity Framework

4

Background Information

5

Federal Reserve Districts

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Community Development at the Fed• 1977 Community Reinvestment Act; mandated

function in 1982.

• CD Function evolved over the years and varies from bank to bank.

• Current objective is to promote economic mobility and resiliency.-Housing-Economic and workforce development-Small Business- Emerging District Issues

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Background InformationWhy?• 68% of US adults have less than a 4-year degree• Economic polarization

What? • Portfolio of Opportunity Occupation Work• Early work focused on defining and identifying opportunity occupations • Deep dive into educational requirements for Registered Nurses• Current work expands our analysis to better understand why opportunity varies across metros• Future work examines skills listed in online job ads to help think about or create skills-based career pathways

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What is Opportunity Employment? § Employment that is accessible to workers without a

bachelors degree.

§ Pays at least the national median wage ($37,690), adjusted for local consumption prices.

Akron, OH $33,921Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN $33,770Cleveland-Elyria, OH $33,996Columbus, OH $35,051Toledo, OH $33,431

In-demand job wage threshold= $13.47 an hour = $28,017

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Classifying Opportunity Employment

Sources: 2017 OES data for employment and wages (Bureau of Labor Statistics)2012-2017 online job ads (Burning Glass Technologies)Median hours by occupation (American Community Survey)Regional Price Parities (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Occupation MSA Cleveland, OH Myrtle Beach, SC

National annual median wage (OES) $37,960Consumption price adjustment (RPP) 90.2 91.1

Opportunity occupation threshold wage $33,996 $34,335Annual median wage for occupation $38,605 $33,987

Total employment (OES) 12,280 1,870Requiring less than bachelor's degree (Burning Glass) 66.8% 71.60%

Opportunity Employment 8,203 0

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks

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Report Findings

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25 Largest Opportunity Occupations in Ohio, 2017

Sources: BLS; Burning Glass Technologies; ACS and BEA12

Occupation title Employment In-demand

JobRegistered Nurses 68,421 X

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 49,980 XSecretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 45,431 X

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 38,570 XBookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 30,218 X

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 27,510 XConstruction Laborers 25,700 X

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 19,980 XMachinists 18,607 X

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 18,351 XElectricians 17,750 X

Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 17,053Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 16,470 X

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 16,148 XInspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 14,998 X

General and Operations Managers 14,309 XCarpenters 14,120 XFirefighters 14,093

Customer Service Representatives 13,331 XIndustrial Machinery Mechanics 12,560 X

Billing and Posting Clerks 11,808 XSales Representatives, Services, All Other 11,749 X

First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers 10,801 XPlumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 10,360 X

Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks 10,229 X

For some occupations, all employment is considered opportunity employment, for others not


Occupation title % Opportunity

OccupationsRegistered Nurses 69%

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 100%Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 81%

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 100%Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 66%

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 100%Construction Laborers 100%

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 67%Machinists 97%

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 43%Electricians 100%

Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 91%Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 100%

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 43%Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 69%

General and Operations Managers 29%Carpenters 100%Firefighters 94%

Customer Service Representatives 17%Industrial Machinery Mechanics 100%

Billing and Posting Clerks 70%Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 39%

First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers 53%Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 100%

Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks 72%

Opportunity Occupations are Projected to have Faster Growth over the Next Several Years (2016-2026)

Sources: BLS; Burning Glass Technologies; ACS and BEA

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants*Secretaries and Administrative Assistants**

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks**Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support WorkersSupervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing*Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers*

Automotive Service Technicians and MechanicsSecurities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents

Police and Sheriff's Patrol OfficersSupervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers

All OccupationsSupervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers

Maintenance and Repair WorkersCarpenters*Electricians

General and Operations ManagersSales Representatives, Services, All Other

Computer User Support SpecialistsLicensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

Construction Laborers*Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers

Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and InstallersRegistered Nurses

Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters

*at-risk for automation (70-94% )**high-risk for automation (95% or greater)

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Employer Education Preferences Vary Across Metro Area


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

General and O

perations M

anagers

Supervi

sors

of Offic

e and Administ

rative…

Sales R

epresentatives, W

holesale and…

Sales R

epresentatives, S

ervice

s, All O

ther

Supervi

sors

of Producti

on and Operatin

g…

Execu

tive Se

cretarie

s and Exe

cutiv

e…

Computer User S

upport Sp

ecialist

s

Supervi

sors

of Constr

uction Trades a

nd…

Supervi

sors

of Mech

anics, In

stalle

rs, and…

Bookkeeping, A

ccountin

g, and Auditin

g…

Registered Nurse

s

Supervi

sors

of Retail S

ales Worke

rs

Supervi

sors

of Transp

ortatio

n and…

Secu

rities, C

ommodities, a

nd Financia

l…

Secre

taries a

nd Administrativ

e Assista

nts

Police an

d Sherif

f's Patro

l Offic

ers

Shar

e of

Sub

-Bac

cala

urea

te Jo

b Ad

s

Range of Highest and Lowest Metro Area Estimates Median

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Many Opportunity Occupations Becoming More Accessible to Workers Without a BA degree

Change in share of jobs requesting less than a BA degree (2012-2015 vs 2015-2017)

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The Share of Opportunity Employment Varies Across Metro Areas

14.6%15.3%15.4%15.5%15.5%16.2%16.2%16.5%16.6%16.8%

29.6%29.7%29.8%30.1%30.3%30.3%30.6%30.8%31.5%34.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WVNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CAMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FLSan Diego-Carlsbad, CA

Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NCBoulder, CO

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA

Kansas City, MO-KSSpokane-Spokane Valley, WA

Lexington-Fayette, KYCleveland-Elyria, OH

Cedar Rapids, IA

St. Louis, MO-ILBirmingham-Hoover, AL

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IAAnchorage, AK

Toledo, OH

Opportunity Employment Higher Wages, Bachelor's Degree Required Lower Wages



The Share of Opportunity Employment in Ohio Metro Areas

21.6%

25.3%

28.1%

28.2%

29.1%

30.1%

34.0%

27.7%

28.8%

25.9%

25.7%

26.3%

27.3%

20.0%

50.8%

45.9%

46.0%

46.1%

44.6%

42.7%

46.0%

All Metro

Columbus, OH

Akron, OH

Dayton, OH

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Cleveland-Elyria, OH

Toledo, OH

Opportunity Employment Higher Wages, Bachelor's Degree Required Lower Wages

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The Share of Opportunity Employment Varies Across Metro Areas

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%



The Share of Opportunity Employment is Loosely Correlated with Metro Area Size

Austin-Round Rock, TX


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

Shar

e of

Opp

ortu

nity

Em

ploy

men

t

Log of Metro Area Total Employment

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The Share of Opportunity Employment is Highly Correlated with Regional Prices

Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130

Shar

e of

Opp

ortu

nity

Em

ploy

men

t

Regional Price Levels

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Opportunity Framework

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National Counterfactual Scenario• Asks what would the share of opportunity

employment be if we used national conditions?

• Assumes:-National occupational mix for all metro areas•Changes the amount of employment in each occupation.

- $37,690 is the local wage threshold.- Employer educational expectations for an occupation reflect the all metro share.

• Compare local and national counterfactual estimates and breaks down the marginal effect of each component.

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The Share of Opportunity Employment can be Higher/Lower due to:

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CASan Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PAWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CTTrenton, NJ

Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NHLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

San Diego-Carlsbad, CASeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

Baton Rouge, LAAugusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, ARTulsa, OK

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MOKnoxville, TN

Chattanooga, TN-GABirmingham-Hoover, AL

Wichita, KSToledo, OH

Percentage Point Difference

Occupational Mix Employers' Educational Expectations Regional Price Levels

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The Share of Opportunity Employment can be Higher/Lower due to:

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Columbus, OH

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN


Dayton, OH

Akron, OH

Toledo, OH

Occupational Mix Employers' Educational Expectations Regional Price Levels

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Occupational Mix Matters for Policy

Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH

Boulder, CO

Metro Area Average

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75%

Rat

io o

f Sub

-Bac

cala

urea

te R

esid

ents

(Age

25-

64) t

o O

ppor

tuni

ty E

mpl

oym

ent

Lower-Wage Employment as a Share of Total Employment Analyzed

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Public Policy Levers in Opportunity Framework

• There is a greater potential to match workers to decent paying employment:- Employers can use clear, standardized communication of skills

and competencies necessary.- Stronger societal commitment to post-secondary education and

training, including earn and learn options.

• Focus regional economic development efforts on industries that provide better paying employment opportunities; all jobs are not created equal.

• Pursue policies that preserve or lower costs of living, including the preservation and creation of affordable housing, especially near high opportunity areas.

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Conclusions• 73% of the 100 largest Opportunity Occupations are in-

demand jobs. • Opportunity Occupations are generally expected to

grow faster than average over the next several years.• Employer educational expectations are not fixed

overtime or across metro areas.• The level of opportunity employment varies across

metros due to occupational mix, employer educational expectations and costs of living.

• Ohio metros tend to have higher shares of opportunity employment.

• The opportunity occupation framework can be used for local policy discussions aimed at increasing the level of opportunity in a metro area.

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Questions?

[email protected]

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/a-look-behind-the-numbers/albtn-opportunity-occupations.aspx

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mailto:[email protected]

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/a-look-behind-the-numbers/albtn-opportunity-occupations.aspx

exploring opportunity occupations - wordpress.com · 2019-05-06 · exploring opportunity...

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