experts in energy, an analytical advantage - cornwall … outputs bring clarity to often complex...
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Our renewables and flexibility services
Experts in energy, An analytical advantage
www.cornwall-insight.com
Why Cornwall Insight?
Established in 2005, Cornwall Insight has developed a unique position in the UK energy market providing expert research, analysis and intelligence to existing and potential retail market participants, brokers and their advisors.
At Cornwall Insight we provide a view of the market that is truly unmatched. We pride ourselves on our objective analysis, delivered by industry thought leaders, and brought together in an integrated view. That’s why we’re the partner of choice for successful companies and organisations across the industry.
We pair structured strategic thinking with unparalleled knowledge, combining analytical forecasting with deep industry experience to deliver high-quality research and analysis. Above all, we focus on clarity and deliver honest, independent and accessible insight.
We are widely regarded as the market-leader in the sector. Our services are valued by a broad range of businesses and our original research is regularly referenced in the national press and by front bench politicians.
Why Cornwall Insight?
Some of our clients
Building BlocksOur reports cover the breadth of the market, providing deep analysis that will provide you with the insights needed to succeed.
Our outputs bring clarity to often complex areas, giving you the accurate and reliable information needed to underpin your business planning.
Building blocks
For questions or help about choosing the right product
01603 604400 [email protected] cornwall-insight.com
Feed in Tariff Forecast
Energy Market Bulletin
Green Power ForecastLong-term Roc Forecast
Monthly With-in Year Roc Forecast PPA Market Share
Policy and Regulation Reports
Third Party Charge Forecast
Green Generators Group Flexibility Forum
CfD Supplier Obligation Forecast
Balancing Mechanism Report
Frequency Response Report
Balancing Mechanism ReportThe volume of actions taken by National Grid in the Balancing Mechanism has been increasing amidst GB’s rapidly evolving energy mix. As system balancing is becoming more challenging, the volatility of imbalance prices has risen, resulting in greater fluctuations in revenues and costs incurred by generators and suppliers alike.
How will it help you?
The daily Balancing Mechanism report will bring you up to speed with developments from the previous day, explaining what factors influenced system prices and who’s setting the price. It also explains likely trends over the coming day to provide you with the information needed to stay prepared.
Who’s it for?
• Generators
• Suppliers
• Network operators
What does it cover?
• Imbalance prices and APX market prices
• Market commentary
• Offers and bids
• De-rated margins and loss-of-load probability
• Wind generation
• System warnings and REMIT outages data
• Forecasts of de-rated margins, demand, and wind and output
Our services
Energy Market BulletinThe GB wholesale energy market is developing rapidly, with the number of generators, suppliers and traders continuing to grow. It is a fast progressing but often opaque landscape, with a number of drivers influencing values in the market.
How will it help you?
The Energy Market Bulletin brings transparency to the market, covering the latest trends in power, gas and commodity prices. It will help you understand the factors that influence commodity prices, dynamics in energy supply and demand, generation, and key market events.
Who’s it for?
• Suppliers
• Generators
• Traders
• Investors
• Brokers
• Large consumers
What does it cover?
• Values of wholesale baseload power, peak power, gas and international commodity markets
• Dynamics in energy supply and demand
• Levels of renewables generation
• Key market trends, drivers and events
Third Party Charges ForecastElectricity third party charges are forecast to increase by over 25% for households and businesses by 2021-22. Find out which charges are driving this increase in our Third Party Charges (TPC) report. Third party charges are a growing proportion of the energy bill. Find out how these increasingly important costs are predicted to increase with our TPC report.
How will it help you?
The TPC Forecast will provide you with an indication on how non-wholesale charges are likely to change over the coming five years and how this will impact energy bills in the domestic and non-domestic electricity and gas supply markets enabling you to more accurately forecast the additional impacts that third party charges are having on tariff setting and bills.
Who’s it for?
• End users
• Suppliers
• Third party intermediaries and energy brokers
• Energy generators
What does it cover?
• Network costs - utilising the latest forecasts and business plans from National Grid and the distribution network operators
• Environmental costs - constructed from our bottom-up FiT and RO models and historical data trends, as well as forecasts of Contracts for Difference (CfDs) and the Capacity Market
• Energy efficiency programme costs - using government impact assessments and other analysis to construct a year-on-year breakdown of charges
Our services
Feed in Tariff ForecastOver 6GW of renewables capacity is now accredited to the small-scale Feed-in Tariff scheme, with combined annual payments to generators well in excess of £1bn. As new capacity continues to accredit under the scheme, and with costs recovered from consumers electricity bills, it is essential to accurately forecast these costs.
How will it help you?
Our Feed-in Tariff Forecast provides you with a quarterly estimate of FiT costs over the coming three years, helping you manage your budgets and accurately pass through costs to customer’s bills. In addition the report also comes with a FiT scheme update to keep you informed of the latest market developments.
Who’s it for?
• Suppliers obligated to partake in FiT levelisation
• Industry participants interested in FiT costs and scheme developments
What does it cover?
• A three-year forecast of FiT costs on a quarterly basis
• A forecast of demand liable to pay the FiT levy
• Capacity developments under the scheme to date with forecasts
• FiT scheme developments and sensitivity analysis on factors impacting on costs
CfD Supplier Obligation ForecastContracts for Difference (CfDs) are already adding to the cost of electricity supply, and charges are set to increase rapidly in future with nearly 10GW expected to commission under the scheme by the mid-2020s.
How will it help you?
Cornwall Insight’s Contracts for Difference Supplier Obligation Forecast projects the cost of the CfD scheme to suppliers, and therefore consumers, on a quarterly basis. It will help you understand events that could impact on supplier costs, help you price your propositions and stay well informed about key developments within the CfD scheme.
Who’s it for?
• Suppliers
• New market entrants
• Brokers
What does it cover?
• Forecast of Total Supplier Obligation
• Contract and project updates
• Wholesale price update
• Interim Levy Rate forecast
• Operational Cost Levy forecast
• Obligation reconciliation and compliance
• Relevant market developments
Our services
Monthly With-in Year Roc ForecastThe Renewables Obligation is a vital source of income for green generators, sometimes representing >50% of revenue. But the value of Rocs in any given year can be volatile.
How will it help you?
Our Monthly Within-year Roc Forecast projects Roc values (£/Roc with recycle values), demand and obligation levels, and Roc issue for the current compliance period.
Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, this report will help you appropriately and accurately value Rocs in the market, maximising revenue from your generating portfolio. It will also help you to evaluate offers received and ensure you are getting the best deal for your Rocs.
Who’s it for?
• Generators
• Investors
• Suppliers
• Traders active in the Roc market
What does it cover?
• Roc issue for the current year
• Roc demand and Roc values for the current year, including projected recycle values
• Access to Cornwall Insight's expert team in Roc market analysis
Long-term Roc ForecastThe Renewables Obligation is the largest UK scheme for renewables electricity generation. It represents a significant, and rising, portion of a consumer’s energy bill, but is also a vital source of revenue for green generators. With new generation capacity expected to accredit under the scheme until 2019, and a whole cocktail of variables in the market, scheme values remain volatile and subject to change, particularly in a changing policy landscape.
How will it help you?
Understanding the Roc market can be complex and time consuming. Whether you are the project owner, an investor or a supplier involved in the Roc market it is crucial that you are able to forecast Roc values, obligations and costs. The Long-term Roc Forecast does just this, providing a reference point for future Renewables Obligation Certificate (Roc) values, and knowledge of how the costs of the RO may impact on supply businesses and energy bills out to 2027.
Who’s it for?
• Suppliers
• Generators
• Investors
• Traders active in the Roc market
What does it cover?
• Roc issue under the scheme
• RO targets and supplier obligations
• Supplier and consumer costs
• Roc demand and Roc values, including forecast recycle values
• Developments affecting the Roc Market
Our services
Green Power ForecastIt is estimated that half of all renewables capacity in GB is sold under power purchase agreements (PPAs). With approximately 40 suppliers and offtakers active in the signing PPAs, it is a very competitive and often opaque environment. In a rapidly evolving renewables sector, with multiple routes to market and a diverse range of revenue streams, understanding how to get the best value for your power can be complex.
How will it help you?
The Green Power Forecast provides you with a forecast of values for renewable projects through different routes to market. With details of PPA values as well as a quarterly assessment of competition and pricing, the report will help you negotiate PPAs and ensure you are well informed of developments in the renewables market.
Who’s it for?
• Suppliers
• Offtakers
• Generators
• Investors, traders and market participants with an interest in renewables
What does it cover?
• Forecast of values for renewable projects through different routes to market
• Forecast of values from different revenue streams
• Competition and pricing in the PPA market
• Key trends in the renewables market
PPA Market Share
Over recent years we have seen the development of a highly competitive and liquid Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) market. But who is most active in the market and which offtakers are growing through offering better terms or innovative products?
How will it help you?
The PPA Market Share report details the amount of renewables capacity under PPAs in GB and each offtakers’ share of the market.
It will help you identify different offtaker’s strategies, understand trends in the long-term and short-term PPA markets, helping you remain competitive as an active offtaker signing PPAs.
Who’s it for?
• Suppliers
• Offtakers active in signing PPAs
What does it cover?
• PPA market share by offtaker, with detailed profiles of the top 20 offtakers
• Different offtaker strategies and details of new entrants in the PPA market
• Key trends in short-term and long-term PPA markets
Our services
Frequency Response ReportThe GB electricity system’s frequency changes on a second-by-second basis depending on the balance of electricity generation and demand on the network. National Grid has a licence obligation to contain frequency within operational limits by taking remedial action through a range of different products and services.
How will it help you?
Updated monthly, this report provides an overview of the frequency response market, relevant regulatory and policy developments, the technical and commercial elements of each competitive frequency response service, and Cornwall Insight’s latest forecast of value obtainable from non-bilateral frequency response services. It will help you understand the technical and commercial requirements of the scheme. It also includes a market intelligence section covering partnerships, projects and innovation trials currently active in the frequency response markets, helping you determine supply and demand in the market.
Who’s it for?
• Investors in assets that are capable of providing flexibility response
• Demand-side response providers
• Existing providers of frequency response
What does it cover?
• Fundamental forecasts of frequency response
• Regulatory and policy changes that impact the market
• Commercial market developments
• The latest tender results
Policy and Regulation ReportsThe risks and opportunities associated with the ever changing regulatory environment can be difficult to monitor and evaluate while focusing on core business, but the implications of failing to do so can be significant. To overcome this, we offer a range of services to help you keep up to date, explore specific business opportunities and mitigate against risk.
How will it help you?
These reports will help you mitigate risk and take advantage of opportunities, by setting out the potential impacts of complicated regulatory changes on your business and the wider market.
Who’s it for?
• Suppliers in the domestic market
• New market entrants
• Think-tanks, consultants and advisors involved in the domestic retail markets
What do they cover?
Designed to your individual specification, our Policy and Regulation reports will give you the tools to understand the implications of regulatory change to your business – and what actions you might need to take as a result.
Our services
Green Generators GroupAs a renewables generator or investor your task is more difficult than most. Not only do you have to keep track of current and upcoming policies and regulations impacting your business, you are expected to do so with limited resources. The Green Generators Group provides you with a platform to connect with other businesses in a similar situation and ask questions to Cornwall Insight’s experts and industry speakers.
How will it help you?
Consisting of wide range of market participants, including the UK’s largest independent renewables generators, this monthly forum provides you with an opportunity to meet and discuss market developments and issues with industry peers and Cornwall Insight's renewables market experts. It will help keep you abreast of policy, regulatory and commercial developments which directly impact your business, enabling you to make informed decisions for strategy and the future of your business.
Who’s it for?
• Independent generators
• Owners, operators and investors of green generation assets
• Renewables PPA providers/ offtakers
What does it cover?
• Information on market developments that could bring about risks or opportunities for your business
• Access to Cornwall Insight’s expert team on renewables markets
• Alerts on key events and developments to ensure you never miss a crucial change
Flexibility Forum
Changes in the electricity flexibility space are unfolding quickly, the market is deploying innovate new solutions and the system operator, Ofgem and government all have commercial, regulatory and legislative changes in process. The goal of F2 is to is to help you understand the fast pace of change and to evaluate the risks and opportunities for your business. How will it help you?
The monthly forum will deliver a comprehensive analysis of all relevant key developments in government policy, code and regulatory reform, and market developments that impact its members. It will also provide an opportunity to meet and discuss market developments and issues with industry peers and Cornwall Insight market experts.
Who’s it for?
• Owners and investors in flexible thermal plant
• Owners and investors in storage technologies
• Demand side response providers
• Offtakers, aggregators, traders
What does it cover?
• Government policies and programmes
• Smart/flexibility policies and interconnection
• Network code rules and tariffs
• The balancing and settlement code and balancing mechanism
• Competition for and estimated value from balancing services
• Commissioning, closures and mothballing
• Demand
• Wholesale markets
Our services
In development...
Flexibility Matters
This new report provides a regular, detailed appraisal of the critical developments for flexibility providers over the past three months. A concise quarterly briefing, it focusses on the key regulatory, governance and policy changes and how they will affect your business. Alongside this you will also receive our flexibility alerts to ensure you are up to speed as key developments occur.
Capacity Market Report
Cornwall Insight’s Capacity Market subscription service will be a three stage report due for publication in November 2017. It will provide a detailed examination of the market conditions, following the release of pre-qualification data, forecast the T-4 auction and T-1 auction outturn and review the auction results.
Embedded Benefits Calculator
The Embedded Benefits Calculator, to be launched in October 2017 will provide generators with a simple tool to understand the value their projects create through embedded benefits, the credits they receive for being part of the distribution networks. This will include all of the current values and a forecast for the next 5 years based on the latest figures with updates from the networks throughout the year, tailored to your project.
Balancing Service Reserve Report
This report, launching in December 2017 will cover the latest results in STOR tenders and project prices for future rounds.
Mike Mahoney
Associate Director, Wholesale and Modelling
Tim Dixon
Wholesale Team Leader
Tom Edwards
Consultant
Tom Palmer
Consultant
Contact our experts
Cornwall, 2 Millennium Plain, Norwich, Norfolk, NR2 1TFTelephone: 01603 604400Email: [email protected]
www.cornwall-insight.com