exchange close change dow 25,415.19 108...2018/08/01 · dow 25,415.19 108.36 s&p 500 -1,482.43...
TRANSCRIPT
1 2 M O N T H C A N D L E S T I C K ( W E E K L Y )
Prompt Natural Gas
(NG) Daily Sentiment
RESISTANCE
2.82 & 2.85
SUPPORT
2.76 & 2.74
Analysis: Pipeline works pull Russian natural gas flows to Germa-
ny, Slovakia down 9% in July— S&P Global Platts reported: Rus-
sian flows of natural gas into Germany and Slovakia combined
fell back to a five-month low in July on the back of maintenance
works affecting delivery capacity into Germany, data from S&P
Global Platts Analytics showed Wednesday. Total Russian deliver-
I N T H E N E W S Prior Day’s NYMEX
Sep-18 Contract (CT)
© 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
Trading Summary NYMEX NG Futures
BEARISH
Contact Us
Mansfield Energy Corp
1025 Airport Pkwy
Gainesville, GA 30501
www.mansfield.energy
Phone: (800) 695-6626
A U G U S T 1 , 2 0 1 8
2.742.752.762.772.782.792.802.812.822.832.84
8:0
0
8:4
5
9:3
0
10
:15
11
:00
11
:45
12
:30
13
:15
14
:00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
NATURAL GAS
Futures Close Change
NG 2.782 (0.015)
Volume 421,955 (360,360)
Open Int. 1,541,421 25,486
CRUDE AND GASOLINE
Futures Close Change
Crude 68.76 (1.37)
RBOB 2.0805 (0.0327)
Crude/NG 24.72 (0.36)
METALS
Futures Close Change
Gold 1,223.70 (3.10)
EQUITIES
Exchange Close Change
DOW 25,415.19 108.36
S&P 500 -1,482.43 13.69
CURRENCY
Currency Close Change
EUR/USD 1.1690 (0.0001)
USD/CND 1.2405 0.0000
Month Close Change
Sep-18 2.782 (0.015)
Oct-18 2.798 (0.019)
Nov-18 2.843 (0.023)
Dec-18 2.952 (0.022)
Jan-19 3.038 (0.019)
Feb-19 3.005 (0.020)
Mar-19 2.905 (0.020)
Apr-19 2.616 (0.019)
May-19 2.589 (0.019)
Jun-19 2.619 (0.020)
Jul-19 2.651 (0.020)
Aug-19 2.658 (0.019)
Sep-19 2.640 (0.018)
Oct-19 2.658 (0.016)
Nov-19 2.711 (0.015)
Dec-19 2.838 (0.013)
Jan-20 2.931 (0.014)
Feb-20 2.894 (0.014)
Mar-20 2.794 (0.014)
Apr-20 2.511 0.000
May-20 2.475 (0.002)
Jun-20 2.504 (0.002)
Jul-20 2.534 (0.002)
Aug-20 2.541 (0.001)
1YR Strip 2.788 (0.020)
2018 2.844 (0.020)
5YR Strip 2.665 (0.006)
Analysis: Pipeline works pull Russian natural gas flows to Germa-
ny, Slovakia down 9% in July
LNG demand incentivizes development of Trinidad’s natural gas
ies into Germany and Slovakia combined stood at 10.16 Bcm last
month, a fall of 9% when compared to June's levels but a more
sedate drop of 5% on an annual basis. Flows through the Nord
Stream pipeline, which delivers Russian gas directly into northeast
Germany at Greifswald, were close to zero between July 17-29
due to its annual shutdown. However, flows were still slightly
higher than expected last month as the maintenance works were
completed a day earlier than expected, coming in at 2.81 Bcm in
July, down 24% on an annual basis and a more hefty 41% from
June's levels. For more on this story visit spglobal.com or click
https://bit.ly/2Kj0A7b
LNG demand incentivizes development of Trinidad’s natural gas
discoveries— Offshore Technology reported: Trinidad and Tobago’s
(T&T) total 2017 natural gas output grew by an average of 262
million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), representing a growth of 7.7%
with respect to 2016 production mainly due to two major projects,
Juniper and Sercan. Upstream operators committed to spend over
$10 billion in exploration and development activities over five
years starting in 2015. Indeed this new flow of investment is be-
hind BHP’s 2016 LeClerc discovery and Victoria in July 2018, both
in deep water. At present the government continues to reiterate
its intention to set up a subsidiary that would receive and aggre-
gate the upstream natural gas production to then allocate it to
both domestic industry and LNG consumption. For more on this
story visit offshore-technology.com or click https://bit.ly/2O30rXL
W E E K L Y G A S I N U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E W I T H 5 - Y R R A N G E
Page 2 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
Release Date: July 26, 2018
A U G U S T 1 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Rig Count
Report Date:
Total Change
US - 1048 +2
CN - 223 +12
July 27, 2018
T R O P I C A L S T O R M A C T I V I T Y — A T L A N T I C
2,273 BCF
24 BCF (LAST WEEK)
(705) BCF (LAST YEAR)
(557) BCF (5-YR AVG)
Total Working Gas In
Storage
U.S. Natural Gas Supply
Gas Week 7/19 — 7/25
Average daily values (BCF/D):
Last Year (BCF/d)
Dry Production — +73.0
Total Supply — +79.4
Last Week (BCF/d)
Dry Production — +80.5
Total Supply — +86.6
[NEXT REPORT ON Aug 3]
U.S. Natural Gas Demand
Gas Week 7/19 — 7/25
Average daily values (BCF/D):
Last Year (BCF/d)
Power — +38.3
Total Demand — +75.6
Last Week (BCF/d)
Power — +39.0
Total Demand — +80.0
[NEXT REPORT ON Aug 3]
EIA Weekly NG Storage
Actual and Surveys for
July 27, 2018
Released July 26, 2018
Range (35) to (63)
PIRA — (29)
Citi Futures — (44)
Reuters — (31)
EIA ACTUAL — 24
Month:
Day Price Day Price
1 16
2 17
3 18
4 19
5 20
6 21
7 22
8 23
9 24
10 25
11 26
12 27
13 28
14 29
15 30
31
Average (Aug)
(through 07/31/2018)
Average (Jul)
Average (Jun)
70.5819
67.3229
August 2018
#DIV/0!-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Waha Basis (platts Iferc)
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
N A T U R A L G A S B A S I S F U T U R E S , H E N R Y H U B S P O T P R I C E S , A N D F O R W A R D C U R V E
Page 3 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
A U G U S T 1 , 2 0 1 8
CME NG Option Prices
ATM Call
CME NG Option Prices
ATM Put
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
4.25
4.75
5.25
5.75
1 3 5 7 9 11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Henry Hub Daily Spot Price
JUL 2018 JUN 2018 MAY 2018
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
4.259/
1/20
18
2/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
12/1
/201
9
5/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
3/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
1/1/
2022
6/1/
2022
11/1
/202
2
4/1/
2023
9/1/
2023
2/1/
2024
7/1/
2024
12/1
/202
4
5/1/
2025
10/1
/202
5
3/1/
2026
8/1/
2026
1/1/
2027
NYMEX Natural Gas Forward Curve
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
-1.500
-1.300
-1.100
-0.900
-0.700
-0.500
-0.300
-0.100
0.100
0.300
0.500
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Sumas Basis (platts Iferc)
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
-0.45
-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Michcon Basis (platts Iferc)
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Transco Zone 6 Basis (platts Iferc)
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
-1.200
-1.000
-0.800
-0.600
-0.400
-0.200
0.000
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
San Juan Basis (platts Iferc)
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
-0.07
-0.06
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Transco Zone 4 Basis (platts Iferc)
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
Month Strike Close Imp Vol
Oct-18
Nov-18 2.800 0.082 20.6
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Month Strike Close Imp Vol
Oct-18
Nov-18 2.800 0.091 18.7
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
NYMEX WTI Delivery
Month Average ($/bbl)
(Excluding Weekends and Holidays)
Page 4 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
W E A T H E R — H I G H / L O W T E M P E R A T U R E T O M O R R O W
HIGH Temperature LOW Temperature
W E A T H E R — 6 T O 1 0 D A Y O U T L O O K — N O A A
Temperature Precipitation
W E A T H E R — 8 T O 1 4 D A Y O U T L O O K — N O A A
Temperature Precipitation
A U G U S T 1 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
CME Future Prices
Ethane (C2)
Non-LDH— Mont Belvieu
CME Future Prices
Propane (C3)
Non-LDH— Mont Belvieu
E T H A N E F U T U R E S , N G / E T H A N E R A T I O , P R O P A N E F U T U R E S , A N D T H E F R A C S P R E A D
Page 5 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
A U G U S T 1 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Month Close Change
Sep-18 0.357 0.000
Oct-18 0.341 0.008
Nov-18 0.335 0.008
Dec-18 0.328 0.007
Jan-19 0.321 0.006
Feb-19 0.314 0.005
Mar-19 0.308 0.003
Apr-19 0.302 0.003
May-19 0.295 0.003
Jun-19 0.287 0.003
Jul-19 0.284 0.002
Aug-19 0.283 0.003
1YR Strip 0.313 0.004
(cents/gallon)
Month Close Change
Sep-18 0.938 (0.001)
Oct-18 0.953 (0.020)
Nov-18 0.951 (0.019)
Dec-18 0.950 (0.018)
Jan-19 0.949 (0.017)
Feb-19 0.945 (0.016)
Mar-19 0.936 (0.016)
Apr-19 0.920 (0.015)
May-19 0.848 (0.015)
Jun-19 0.785 (0.013)
Jul-19 0.762 (0.011)
Aug-19 0.753 (0.011)
1YR Strip 0.891 (0.014)
(cents/gallon)
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Ethane Futures
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
9/1/
2018
10/1
/201
8
11/1
/201
8
12/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
2/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
4/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
11/1
/201
9
12/1
/201
9
Ethane / Natural Gas Ratio
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Propane Futures
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
9/1/
2018
10/1
/201
8
11/1
/201
8
12/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
2/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
4/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
11/1
/201
9
12/1
/201
9
Frac Spread
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
Prompt WTI (CL) Crude
Daily Sentiment
RESISTANCE
69.99 & 71.23
SUPPORT
67.75 & 66.75
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
10/1
/201
8
2/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
2/1/
2022
6/1/
2022
10/1
/202
2
2/1/
2023
6/1/
2023
10/1
/202
3
2/1/
2024
6/1/
2024
10/1
/202
4
2/1/
2025
6/1/
2025
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
Ethane : 42% 66,500 btu/g
Propane: 28% 90,830 btu/g
Butane: 11% 102,916 btu/g
Iso-Butane: 6% 98,935 btu/g
Natural Gasoline: 13%
115,021 btu/g
BULLISH
B R E N T C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E
Page 6 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
W T I C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E
W T I — B R E N T S P R E A D
NYMEX WTI (CL) Futures
NYMEX Brent (BZ)
Futures
Prompt NGL Futures
($/gallon)
FRAC Spread
Specifications
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER:
@MPG_NatGasNews
A U G U S T 1 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Close Change
1.244 (0.005)
1.207 (0.001)
1.516 (0.001)
Iso-Butane
Nat Gasoline
Sep-18
Butane
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
9/1/
2018
2/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
12/1
/201
9
5/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
3/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
1/1/
2022
6/1/
2022
11/1
/202
2
4/1/
2023
9/1/
2023
2/1/
2024
7/1/
2024
12/1
/202
4
5/1/
2025
10/1
/202
5
3/1/
2026
8/1/
2026
1/1/
2027
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
(12)(11)(10)
(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)0
10/1
/201
8
2/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
2/1/
2022
6/1/
2022
10/1
/202
2
2/1/
2023
6/1/
2023
10/1
/202
3
2/1/
2024
6/1/
2024
7/31/2018 7/24/2018 7/2/2018
Month Close Change
Sep-18 68.76 (1.37)
Oct-18 67.63 (1.32)
Nov-18 67.27 (1.24)
Dec-18 66.97 (1.17)
Jan-19 66.71 (1.11)
Feb-19 66.31 (1.07)
Mar-19 65.95 (1.04)
Apr-19 65.64 (1.01)
May-19 65.36 (0.99)
Jun-19 65.07 (0.95)
Jul-19 64.75 (0.94)
Aug-19 64.44 (0.91)
Sep-19 64.15 (0.90)
Oct-19 63.88 (0.88)
Nov-19 63.61 (0.86)
Dec-19 63.35 (0.85)
Jan-20 63.03 (0.84)
Feb-20 62.73 (0.82)
Mar-20 62.44 (0.80)
Apr-20 62.17 (0.78)
May-20 61.92 (0.77)
Jun-20 61.67 (0.74)
Jul-20 61.38 (0.71)
Aug-20 61.12 (0.69)
1YR Strip 66.24 (1.09)
2018 67.66 (1.28)
5YR Strip 60.24 (0.65)
Month Close Change
Oct-18 74.21 (1.34)
Nov-18 74.39 (1.36)
Dec-18 74.43 (1.38)
Jan-19 74.38 (1.38)
Feb-19 74.26 (1.36)
Mar-19 74.09 (1.34)
Apr-19 73.91 (1.30)
May-19 73.69 (1.26)
Jun-19 73.43 (1.24)
Jul-19 73.19 (1.22)
Aug-19 72.93 (1.21)
Sep-19 72.66 (1.21)
Oct-19 72.37 (1.19)
Nov-19 72.10 (1.19)
Dec-19 71.79 (1.18)
Jan-20 71.50 (1.17)
Feb-20 71.23 (1.16)
Mar-20 70.96 (1.14)
Apr-20 70.68 (1.13)
May-20 70.43 (1.10)
Jun-20 70.17 (1.08)
Jul-20 69.89 (1.06)
Aug-20 69.61 (1.04)
Sep-20 69.33 (1.02)
1YR Strip 73.80 (1.30)
2018 74.34 (1.36)
5YR Strip 68.20 (0.91)