excerpt from sae 550 lecture series: systems architecting and the political process what’s next...

Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:

Systems Architecting and the Political Process

What’s Next for Manned Space

Programs?

University of Southern California

Viterbi School of Engineering

Systems Architecture & Engineering (SAE)

Ken CuretonFebruary 2015

[email protected]

SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 2

Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?

• WHAT’S NEXT FOR MANNED SPACE?

– LOSS OF CHALLENGER IN 1987 GREATLY INFLUENCED THE PROGRAM’S FUTURE

– GRADUAL RECOGNITION IN 1990s THAT SHUTTLE DESIGN WAS AGING

– MORE EXPENSIVE TO MAINTAIN AND LAUNCH THAN EVER

– LOSS OF COLUMBIA IN 2003 ACCELERATED THE SEARCH FOR COST SAVINGS

– MANY REPLACEMENT SYSTEMS PROPOSED, FUNDED, AND THEN CANCELLED

SAE 550 CLASS 05 PAGE 3

SAE 550 LECTURE #5LAUNCH SYSTEMS (Shuttle, ALS, NLS)

• MOST RECENTLY CANCELLED PROGRAM:

– CONSTELLATION:NASA AUTHORIZATIONACT OF 2010BROUGHT PROGRAMTO AN ENDON OCTOBER 11, 2010

• CONSTELLATION PROGRAM REPLACED BY THE U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY

– FINAL SHUTTLE FLIGHT: JULY 8, 2011

– RELIANT ON RUSSIANS THEREAFTER



• RUSSIAN SPACECRAFT ARE NOW THE ONLY MEANS USED BY ASTRONAUTS TRAVELING TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION

– BAIKONUR IS SOLE LAUNCH SITE USED FOR MANNED MISSIONS TO THE ISS

• MAY 2014: RUSSIANS ANNOUNCED NO MORE SUPPORT TO ISS AFTER 2020

• NASA NOW WORKING WITH US COMPANIES

– DEVELOPING SPACE TAXIS WITH GOAL OF RESTORING US TRANSPORT TO ISS BY 2017



RUSSIAN “SOYUZ” MANNED LAUNCH SYSTEM



SOYUZ-TM EXTERIOR

CREW CAPACITY: THREE

CREW RETURN MODULE



SOYUZ-TM INTERIOR



• CHINA: MANNED SPACEFLIGHT PLAN– FIRST MANNED SPACE

VEHICLE: 10/15/2003– SPACE LABORATORY: 2015

20 DAYS WITH CREW OF 3– SPACE STATION: 2018+

• INDIA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT AFTER 2017

SHENZHOU 5 REENTRY MODULE



• COMMERCIAL SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE?• NASA’S $30M COMMERCIAL CREW PROGRAM – 2 COMPANIES: BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA

CORPORATION SPACE SYSTEMS & SPACEX– POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT CREW MEMBERS

FROM UNITED STATES LAUNCH SITES TO ISS– APRIL 2014:

SPACEXCOMMERCIALDRAGONRESUPPLY SHIPDOCKS WITH ISS



X-38(B-52 DROP TOPARAFOILLANDING)



NASA X-51A "WAVERIDER“MAY 27 2010: ~ 200 seconds, up to ~ Mach 5 and ~ 70,000 feet

MAY 3 2013: 240 seconds, Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet



• EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) ARIANE 5 LAUNCH VEHICLE• UNMANNED-- BUT

COULD BE EXPANDED



• RUSSIAN “PROTON” LAUNCH VEHICLE



• NEW “ANGARA”RUSSIANMANNEDLAUNCHVEHICLES– ANNOUNCED

BY VLADIMIRPUTINJULY OF 2013

• SCHEDULEDFOR 2018-2020



• CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 2F VEHICLE– SHENZHOU

CAPSULELAUCHER

• CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 7 VEHICLE IN DEVELOPMENT



• INDIAN “POLAR SATELLITE LAUNCH VEHICLE” PSLV• UNMANNED-- BUT PROTOTYPE

FOR FUTURE MANNED BOOSTERS



• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE– IN YOUR PRESENTER’S HUMBLE

(AND EVER SO UNBIASED!) OPINION– U.S. WILL (IN THE SHORT TERM):

• CONTINUE IN UNMANNED SPACE, BUT WITH INCREASING FOREIGN COMPETITION

• CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PRIVATE FUNDING FOR UNMANNED SYSTEMS, WITH SOME COMMERCIALIZATION OF MANNED SPACE-- BUT WITH LITTLE GOVERNMENT FUNDING

– CUT-OFF USE of RUSSIAN LAUNCHERS BUT SPECTER OF COMPETITION FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES WILL STIMULATE RESURGENCE OF NATIONAL PRIDE

• SOMEWHERE AFTER YEAR 2017-TO-2020



• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)

– FACT OF LIFE #3: A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIAL

• U.S. TYPICALLY PERFORMES STRONGLY WHEN STIMULATED BY FEAR OF FOREIGN DOMINATION

– OFTEN VILIFIES OTHER COUNTRIESOUT OF FEAR

• INCREASED PUBLIC SUPPORT DUE TO PERCEIVED THREAT OF RUSSIANS AND CHINESE AFTER 2020

– AFTER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ NO LONGER A HEAVY DRAIN ON ECONOMY



• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)– FACT OF LIFE #5: BEST TECHNICAL SOLUTION OFTEN

NOT BEST POLITICAL SOLUTION

• POLITICAL “VALUE” OF MANNED SPACE WILL CHANGE BASED ON TWO FACTORS:– PERCEIVED THREAT OF FOREIGN DOMINATION– NEED TO REVIVE HIGH-TECH AEROSPACE JOBS

• NASA FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AERONAUTICS AND UNMANNED SPACE EXPLORATION– SOME MANNED SPACE FOR SPACE STATION SUPPORT

• DOD (AIR FORCE) TO ADD CAPABILITY FOR MANNED SPACE WITH MILITARY MISSIONS– DISPOSABLE “SPACE PLANE” ON TOP OF AN

EXISTING MILITARY BOOSTER– ALSO CONTINUING EFFORT IN SATELLITES

excerpt from sae 550 lecture series: systems architecting and the political process what’s next...

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