Examining effect of climate variability on under-five children’s nutrition status

Andrew Jamali

National Statistical Office, Malawi

The Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture and Health 12th to 13th June,London

Outline

• Introduction• Literature

– Definition, causes and effects of climate change– World, regional and local picture

• Study Objectives• Study Design

– Methods and Data Sources– Analysis

• Preliminary analysis• Conclusion• Next steps

Introduction

• Climate Change - Change in the state of Climate identified by changes in variability of its properties over extended period (decades or longer) (IPCC, 2001).

• Caused simultaneously by natural and human-induced factors (Oreskes, 2004; IPCC, 2007)

– Natural :Variations in solar output and earth’s orbit orientation on its axis

– Human: Industrialization (Piling greenhouse gas emissions due to burning fossil fuel): Changes in land use

Effects of Climate Change and Variability

• Intensified and more frequent weather events

Heat waves, none-normal precipitation, floods, droughts, hurricanes, avalanches, windstorm

• Water shortages

• Diseases :expanded geographic distribution of infectious diseases- Malaria, Cholera (IPCC 2001)

Regional Picture: Africa

• Developing regions (countries) experiencing more adverse effects , yet have little counter abilities (Malberg Dyg et al, 2011)

• Agricultural production and food security under climate variability and change induced stress (FAO 2007, 2010)

• Predictions about food security bleak

–Grains, roots and tubers must increase by 40% and meat products by 58% by 2020 to meet demand (Pinstrup-Andersen et al. 1999).

Climate variability in Malawi

• As an agro-based economy, : Climatic Parameters play critical role in Country’s economic productivity (MERP, 2012)

• Prolonged dry spells, droughts, floods and erratic rains, (Lower Shire, Lakeshore areas )(Mkwambisi,2008; Pangapanga – Phiri, 2012)

• Socio-economic and economic survival vulnerable to climate change (MGDS 11, 2009).

Study Objectives

• Examine effect of climate variability on under-five Children’s nutrition in Malawi.

• Key research question;

–How has Children's nutrition status been impacted upon by Climatic variability in Malawi in past 5 years?

Specific questions/objectives

• What have been the trends of climatic parameters key to food production (rainfall) in Malawi over the last 5 years?

• How have the trends affected production of food crops in selected livelihood zones?

• What have been the household food consumption patterns in the zones during the period of study ?

• What is the resultant effect on nutrition status of under-five children?

Rationale

• Reported Climate variability provide impetus on theneed to examine impact of climatic parameters onfood availability and possible nutritional outcomes(WHO,2009).

• Poorly nourished children pose future productive challenges

– Huge disease burden and health costs

– Poor cognitive form

– Poor contribution to productive labour (WHO, 2009)

Study design

• Quantitative secondary data• Uses cross-sectional panel survey data• Data and Sources : Welfare Monitoring Survey

(2007-2011)– Household Demographics– Food Consumption– Anthropometric measurements– Household wealth status

• Other data and Sources :– Climate parameter data (Rainfall)- Dept. of Met.

Services– Staple food crop production (Maize) – MoAFS

Methodology

• Identify livelihood Zone (Districts) reported to experience adverse climatic conditions in last 5 + years

• Generate evidence for Climate variability in the zone in the 5 reference years (Key to food production)

• Assess food crop production in the zone• Examine households economic profile• Analyze household food consumption patterns and

copping mechanisms to food shortages• Examine nutritional situations among under-five

Children • Conduct a panel data modeling of nutrition based on

above variables

Conceptual frameworkCONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY/CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY

Drivers of

Global

Warming

Demographic-Economic-Socio-political-Technological-Cultural & Religious

Climate Variability & Change

-

INCREASE IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES-Increase in Maximum temperatures on hot days-Increase in minimum temperature on cold days-Increase in annual occurrence on hot days-Increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves

GRADUAL CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION- Increase in frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts-Changes in timing, location and rain and snowfall

GREATER WEATHER VARIABILITY-Greater instability in seasonal weather patterns-Changes in start and end of growing seasons

Changes in System Assets-Food production assets-Storage, transport and marketing infrastructure-Agriculturally based livelihood assets-Non-farm livelihood assets-Food preparation assets

Change in food system activities-Producing food-Storing and processing food-Distributing food-Consuming food

Change in components of food security- Food availability-Food accessibility-Food utilization-Food system Stability

Possible Changes in food consumption patterns-Shifts away from grain fed livestock products-Shifts in proportion of locally produced foods in the diet-Increase in consumption of new food items-Reduction in consumption of

Wild food-Reduction in quantities and /or variety of food consumed

Possible changes in Human Health- Changes in calorificsufficiency of diets-Change in nutritional value of diets-Increased incidence of waterborne diseases in flood prone areas-Change in disease vectors and habitats for existing diseases- Emergence of new diseases

Adaptive responses of food systems

Possibility of Migration and Conflict

Change in Nutritional Status

Conceptual Framework (Adapted from FAO livelihood Climate Change) Climate Variability and Household members nutritional status

Climate Variability

(Rainfall)

Household Economic

status(Resources)

Food production

abilities

Nutritional status of

household members

Changes in food components

Food Availability

Changes in food consumption

patterns

Household Demographic

factors

Variables and Indicators

• Climate variability:– Mean deviations from normal ranges rainfall

• Economic Status: – Household Wealth quintiles

• Food Availability – Total quantity of food crops produced in a farming

season / farming year

• Food Consumption patterns: – Number of meals and food items consumed per time

interval (days).

• Nutritional Status: – Proportion of malnourished under-five children

Model Parameters

• Independent Variables– Climate variability

• Summarized mean deviations of rainfall

– Food (food availability)• Total production of staple food crop (maize)

– Food consumption patterns– Household demographics(Size)– Economic status

• Wealth quintile

• Dependent Variable– Children’s nutrition status

Preliminary analysis: Lower Shire Livelihood Zone

(Chikwawa & Nsanje districts)

Rainfall Performance and Maize Production

(Lower Shire Livelihood Zone 2007-2011)

Year 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-2011

Chikwawa 2461.9 2180.1 1143.6 1120.7 1321.3

Nsanje 1013.9 954 875 802 712.1

Source: Department of Meteorological Services, Malawi

Total Annual Rainfall 2005-2011 (mm)

District

2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-2011

Chikwawa 17444 9894 13354 40692

Nsanje 21440 7307 2878 31625

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Statistical Bulletin

Year

Total Maize yearly Production

Annual rainfall and maize production trends, 2007-2011

Annual Rainfall Trends Total annual maize production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Chikwawa

Nsanje

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

20

07

-8

20

08

-9

20

09

-10

20

10

-20

11

Year

Chikwawa

Nsanje

Total district Maize production Vs Number of staple food meals taken by households :

Trends

Total district Maize production Vs Number of staple food meals taken by households per day in the week

before survey 2007,2008,2009 & 2011

Year District ProductionNumber of meals

1 2 3

2007Chikwawa 21440 1.8 61.1 37.1

Nsanje 17444 4.3 57 38.8

2008 Chikwawa 9894 1.8 74.9 46

Nsanje 7307 2.6 50.7 23.3

2009Chikwawa 13354 3.6 55.3 41

Nsanje 2878 1.9 46 52

2011Chikwawa 40692 4.9 62.5 32.6

Nsanje 31625 1.0 65.7 33

Total district Maize production Vs Number of staple food meals taken by households per day:

Observations

• There a corresponding decrease pattern in both food crop production in a year and number of food crop meals the households consumed in the year (Nsanjedistrict in 2008,2009)

• A general pattern of high proportion of staple food meals (2 per day per) per household irrespective of whether food crop production increased or decreased

• There is a possibility of other factors at play

Average household size vs. Under-five nutritional indicators

Average household size vs. Under-five nutritional indicators

Year District Average household

size

Nutritional Status

Stunting Wasting Underweight

2007Chikwawa 5.0 41.6 6.0 20.7

Nsanje 5.2 40.5 16.0 25.5

2008 Chikwawa 5.3 41.6 6.6 20.7

Nsanje 5.5 40.5 16.0 25.5

2009Chikwawa 4.7 49.6 1.8 20.7

Nsanje 4.4 44.4 4.5 19.4

2011Chikwawa 6.4 38.1 3.4 14.9

Nsanje 8.4 58.3 5.4 24.5

Average household size vs. Under-five nutrition

Chikwawa District Nsanje District

0

5 5.34.7

6.4

0

66.6

1.8

3.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2007 2008 2009 2011

Wasting

Averagehousehold size

5.2 5.5

4.4

8.4

16 16

4.55.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2007 2008 2009 2011

Averagehouseholdsize

Wasting

Average household size vs. Under-five nutrition

Chikwawa district Nsanje District

5 5.3 4.76.4

41.6 41.6

49.6

38.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2008 2009 2011

Stunting

Averagehouseholdsize

5.2 5.5 4.48.4

40.5 40.544.4

58.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007200820092011

Averagehouseholdsize

stunting

Average household size vs. Under-five nutrition

Chikwawa District Nsanje District

5 5.3 4.76.4

20.7 20.7 20.7

14.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2011

Averagehouseholdsize

Underweight

5.2 5.54.4

8.4

25.5 25.5

19.4

24.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009 2011

AverageHouseholdSize

Underweight

Average household size vs. Under-five nutrition : Trend observations

• Almost all under-five nutrition indicators for all the years understudy showed a pattern of change just like yearly changes in average household sizes

• There could be a very close association between household demographics (Mean size) and under-five nutrition indicators

Preliminary conclusions

• Climatic parameter (rainfall) does not show any similar pattern to nutritional indicators

• Demographic factors (household size) appear to have a bearing in nutritional situation

• Although there seemingly is a similar trend on rainfall quantity and food crop (Maize) production, there could be no statistical relationship, hence an indirect link of climatic variables to nutritional outcomes.

• More rigorous statistical analysis to test relationships of variables

Next steps

• Perform statistical test of associations in order to provide evidence for relationship among parameters in the analysis

• Conduct panel regression analysis to model nutrition based on the selected parameters (Climatic –rainfall) demographic and economic factors

• Scale up analysis to all livelihood zones so as to examine parameters at a more broader scale and allow comparability across zones.

End of PresentationThank you for your attention

References

• Codjoe S, Owusu, G, (2011) ‘Climate change/variability and food systems: evidence from the Afram Plains, Ghana’ Reg Environ Change DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0211-3

• Downing, T. E. (2002). Linking sustainable livelihoods and global climate change in vulnerable food systems. Die Erde., 133:363–378.

• Pittock, B. (2009) Climate Change: The science, impacts and solutions. CSIRO Publishing

• Oreskes, N. (2004) ‘The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science 3 December 2004: Vol 306 No. 5702

• IPCC (2001) Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Summary for Policy Makers)

• Malberg Dyg P, Joldasov A, Antadjanova, Breda J, (2011) ‘Climate Change and Its Impact on Nutrition Security: Report on assessment of 4 Autonomous Regions in Uzbekistan’

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MEA (2005), ‘Living beyond our means’: Natural Assets and Human Well being, Statement from the board.

• McMachael, et al., ‘Climate and Human Health-Risks and Responses. WHO, Geneva, Switzerland

• Malawi Government (2012) Economic Recovery Plan, Ministry of Finance, Lilongwe Malawi

• UNDP (2012) African Human Development Report 2012 :Towards a Food Secure Future, United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Africa (RBA)1 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA