Environmental challenges to Environmental challenges to Agriculture and the emerging Agriculture and the emerging

solutionssolutions

A.K. Joshi

Department of Genetics & Plant BreedingInstitute of Agricultural Sciences

Banaras Hindu University

Environment & AgricultureEnvironment & Agriculture• Agriculture is strongly linked to

environment and they both to human population

• Initially, challenges to agriculture increased since human population increased

• As population grew, cities emerged and pressure on agriculture increased further, causing “Non-sustainability”

Solutions emerged!Solutions emerged!• First by domestication of crops (around

10,000 years ago) and then by management• Domestication of cattle for cultivation: ~9000

years ago• First plough: ~ 6000 years ago• Horse collar: 3rd century BC – In China• 1701 AD: Jethrow Tull devised a simple seed

drill – he was vilified• A century later a threshing machine was

greeted by riots

Also emerged threats!Also emerged threats!• 1815: a gigantic volcanic eruption at

Tambora in Indonesia led to the famous year “Year without summer”. Many countries frosted in summer. Wheat prices soared, and therefore,

• Thomas Robert Malthus (1798) forecasted a Population Crash, based on the calculation that “it was impossible to improve wheat yields as fast as people made babies”

More land under ploughMore land under plough• Malthusian crash was staved off in the

19th century by bringing more land under plough – in N. America, Argentina and Australia

• But, famines became worse in Asia• Then it was the Tractor (early 1800s)

that averted Malthusian disaster – the first tractor had few advantages but they did not eat hay or oats. It released around 25% more land for crops

More land but less nutrientsMore land but less nutrients• Again, Malthusian limit started

approaching without sufficient nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium

• 1830 – a magic ingredient was discovered: Guano – In dry seabird islands of S. America and S. African coasts, immense deposits of bird droppings, rich in N & P, deposited over centuries

Guano RushGuano Rush• In 1843- a tiny island of Ichaboe (S.W.

Africa) was discovered; covered in 25 feet of Penguin and gannet excrement

• It led to - “Guano Rush” followed by mutinies and battles

• During 1840-1880, guano nitrogen made a vast difference to European agriculture

• But soon the vast deposits were exhausted

Search for more nitratesSearch for more nitrates• In late 19th century, the rich mineral

nitrate deposits of Chile took the place of Guano. These nitrate mines fuelled Chilean economy and fertilized Europe’s farms

• On 2nd July, 1909 - Carl Bosch (BASF) and Fritz Haber combined N (from air) with hydrogen (from coal) to make ammonia

• Then in few years, BASF started mining sky for nitrogen

ConsequencesConsequences• Today, nearly half of the N atoms in the

proteins of an average human beings came at some time or another through an ammonia factory

• Haber – nearly saved the German war effort as it was running out of nitrogen explosives in 1914, cut off from Chilean nitrates, but then went on to make lethal gas for chemical warfare and genocide

More N needed further technologyMore N needed further technology

• Haber’s nitrogen was not welcome till middle of 20th century– Because it was a powder, and– It was lodging the crop

• Then, dwarf varieties rescued the world as it made crops responsive to nitrogen

• More nitrogen = more food

Wheat drove the first major changeWheat drove the first major change

• India got 18000 tonnes of dwarf wheat from CIMMYT, Mexico in 1965

• Sir N.E. Borlaug loaded 35 trucks in Mexico and sent to Los Angeles for transport to India

• And, thus introduced Green Revolution

Norin 10, the donor of the dwarfing gene which saved millions of lives

After 50 years of Green After 50 years of Green Revolution Revolution “w“we need further efforts to feed the world, but

the world is not the same”

Population increasing too much Population increasing too much “more in developing countries”“more in developing countries”

Sources: UN Population Division and Population Reference Bureau

DevelopeDevelopedd

6.2 b

80%+

DevelopiDevelopingng

Most nations are short of moneyMost nations are short of money

β-version of a high spatial resolution database of global income and poverty. Sub-national data compiled from country-level sources. Income was in many cases estimated from poverty incidence, and for countries with no data at all using regression models fitted with data from other countries in the region (see next slides). EU is income after taxes (and looks therefore too poor).

R. Hijmans, IRRI; J. Dixon, CIMMYT

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Rural poor/total poor, 2002

Agr

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's c

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ibut

ion

to g

row

th, 1

990-

2005

WDR: Three worlds of agricultureWDR: Three worlds of agriculture

Urbanizing

Agriculture based countries

82% of population in SSA

Agriculture based countries

82% of population in SSA

Transforming countries98% of population in SA

96% of EAP; 92% of MENA

Transforming countries98% of population in SA

96% of EAP; 92% of MENA

Urbanized countries88% of population in ECA;

88% in LAC

Urbanized countries88% of population in ECA;

88% in LAC

World Bank WDR, 2007

Environment is changing

e.g., Africa - Annual Precipitation Variation: 1988-98 (Hodson, CIMMYT)

Variable Nature of Environments

A shift in thinking!A shift in thinking!• No one understands better than farmers

do how the weather change can affect people and their land

• But now, emerging weather patterns have made lot of other people worried, too, and their concerns are well founded(Yvo de Boer, Executive Sect. UN’s Framework

Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC)

Some environmental Some environmental challenges – case study challenges – case study

from Indiafrom India

Heat – a strategic issue for the S AsiaHeat – a strategic issue for the S Asia

Relative yield (+2 ºC / current) for rice growing areas Also an issue for wheat and even maize, in different areas

Change in yield (%)

R. Hijmans, IRRI

Heat stressed areas are increasingHeat stressed areas are increasingFor example: Environment for wheat in IndiaFor example: Environment for wheat in India

Current 2050

Water scarcity

Source: Ministry of Water Resources, Gov. India, 2006

Increasing Water Stress in Punjab

Categorization of Blocks by status of Groundwater Use in Punjab (as on March 2004)

Over Exploited (>100%)

75%

Critical (>90% & <=100%

4%

Semi Critical (>70% & <=100%)

3%

Safe (<= 90%)18%

Note: Figure in parentheses indicate stage of ground water use. A total of 137 blocks were assessed. Source: Planning Commission, 2007

J. Dixon, CIMMYT

• Glaciers cover c.33,000 km2

• Provide c.8.6 X 106 m3 of water / year• 67% Retreating at a rapid rate

Brahmaputra at Singing

-40

-20

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Decade

% C

han

ge +0.03 degCyr

+0.06 degCyr

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+0.15 degCyr

Ganges at Allahbad

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Decade%

Cha

nge

+0.03 degCyr

+0.06 degCyr

+0.10 degCyr

+0.15 degCyr

Ganges at Haridwar

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-40

-20

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Decade

% C

ha

ng

e +0.03 degCyr

+0.06 degCyr

+0.10 degCyr

+0.15 degCyr

Indus at Bisham Qila

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Decade

% C

hang

e

+0.03 degCyr

+0.06 degCyr

+0.10 degCyr

+0.15 degCyr

Indus at Skardu

-100

-50

0

50

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Decade

% C

ha

ng

e +0.03 degCyr

+0.06 degCyr

+0.10 degCyr

+0.15 degCyr

Deglaciation – Simulated

River Flows (next 10 decades)

Population changes

Source: GPW. CIESIN/CIAT/FAO

Challenges for South Asia

• Over Exploitation of Groundwater• Declining water tables 1-3m / year

• 67% of Glaciers in rapid retreat• Medium-term increased river flows• Threat of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods• Longer-term (40 years+) reduced river flows

• Increasing Wheat Heat Stress• 17-38% Reduction in High Potential Areas by 2020

Increasing Population

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

n.a. – not applicable for Alaska, Northern Canada and Antarctican.a. – not applicable for Alaska, Northern Canada and Antarctica

Source: Cline 2007Source: Cline 2007

Impact on agricultural production with carbon fertilization (%)

THE BIOFUEL BOOM

Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Cassava Maize Oil seeds Sugar Wheat

Pri

ce C

han

ge

s (%

)

Biofuel expansion Drastic biofuel expansion

Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios

compared to the baseline levels (%)

Source: IEA and APERC, 2005 Source: IEA and APERC, 2005

Gasoline Demand from Transport (MTOE)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

million

ton

s o

il e

qu

ivale

nt

IndiaBrazil

USA

EU

China

Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries

are slowing

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Avera

ge a

nnual g

row

th r

ate

(%

)

maize

rice

wheat

Source: World Development Report 2008Source: World Development Report 2008

SLOWING AGRICULTURAL SLOWING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

Growth yield (% year) is decreasing: Wheat

-2.0

-1.0

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5.0

China

India

USA

Russia

n Fed

.

France

Canad

a

Austra

lia

Germ

any

Turkey

Pakis

tan

United K

ingdom

Argen

tina

Iran

Ukrai

ne

Kazak

hstan

Poland

Italy

Egypt

Roman

ia

Spain

Growth yield (%/year) 1966-79 1980-94

Solutions on the way?Solutions on the way?

Saving land through High-Yielding varietiesExample: wheat in India

100

60

40

20

019611965 1970 19751980 19851990 19952000

Million

h

ecta

res

Land Used

Land Saved

80

1961 2000Production, 11 76Million tonnes

Av. Yield. t/ha0.852.90Population,Millions 4521,016

Source: FAOSTAT, 2002

• Higher yield with improved adaptation– Hybrids in different crops: Vegetables, food

crops (maize, sorghum, bajra) and also in self pollinated crops like Rice

– Hybrid rice has sustained cereal production in China and South East Asia

– Eastern Gangetic plains of India is the fastest adopter of hybrid rice in India

– Yield is around 40% higher; days to maturity lesser by around 30 days; required less water; good for enhancing cropping intensity

• Varieties with superior stress tolerance are becoming available– Flooding tolerance in rice (IRRI)

– Water-logging tolerance in pigeon pea (ICRISAT)

– Drought tolerance in rice (IRRI), wheat & maize (CIMMYT), barley (ICARDA), groundnut, sorghum & pearl millet (ICRISAT), beans (CIAT), & cowpea (IITA)

Stay green plants; more heat and Stay green plants; more heat and drought tolerancedrought tolerance

T. durum T. tauschii

ABD

• Synthetic wheat developed by CIMMYT is already highlighted globally

• New hope for stress areas, mainly drought

D

+

AB

Synthetic wheat

Conservation AgricultureConservation Agriculture

Saving environment and money and making agriculture sustainable

Transgenics!Transgenics!

Bt Cotton• 20 million ha around the

world• 6 million ha in India• 50,000 mt reduction in

insecticide use• Less health hazard• Significant increases in

farmer profits

Virus resistanceVirus resistanceSource: Monsanto

Herbicide resistant current: soybean, corn, canola, cotton, alfalfa coming: sugar beet, lettuce, strawberry, wheat,

Turf grass resistance gene from bacteria

papaya, squash, potatoresistance gene from a virus

Molecular tools are being used Molecular tools are being used for employing bio-fortified for employing bio-fortified varieties of cropsvarieties of crops““Bio-fortification”Bio-fortification” means means producing crops that have producing crops that have higher levels of nutrition in their higher levels of nutrition in their edible partsedible parts

Golden rice

Rice grain White rice Golden rice

‘Golden Crops’

Source: Gerard Barry

Source: Torbert Rocheford

Eat fruit, get vaccine• A pathogen protein gene is cloned• Gene is inserted into the DNA of plant (potato, banana, tomato)• Humans eat the plant • The body produces antibodies against pathogen protein• Human are “immunized”• Examples:

DiarrheaHepatitis BMeasles

GM Flower to detect landmines

More than 100 million mines are spread over 45 countries

Land mines detecting flowersLand mines detecting flowers

• Danish Company: Aresa Biodetection

• Thale cress: a weed

• Coded to change colour of flower to red when root comes in contact with Nitrogenous gases evaporating from explosives !

• Flowers with in 3-6 weeks of sowings

Land Mine Detection

Mine detected

Feeding Future PopulationsFeeding Future PopulationsWorld has the technology—either available or well-advanced in the research pipeline—to feed 10 billion people

Extending the Green Revolution

to many more food-insecure people will provide a better diet at lower prices

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