evidence in public policy paul johnson · weekly hours worked at minimum wage pre-budget + tax and...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson
SRA annual conference
14 December 2015
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 2: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What makes for effective evidence?
• Deals with an issue of importance
• Timely
• Robust
• Well presented/communicated
• From a trusted source
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 3: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The IFS
• Combines academic with public policy
• Focus on clear communication
• Very careful to be, and be seen to be, independent/neutral
• Stick to what we know
• Unidisciplinary
• Been doing it for 30+ years
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 4: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Understanding causation
• Not the subject of this talk
• Widespread abuse of figures by politicians
– And search for evidence that confirms priors
• Right combination of timeliness, robustness, clarity required
– Remains all too rare
• To be useful results need to be generalisable
– Need models and experiments
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 5: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Some examples
• Public finances
– Debt and spending
– The Autumn Statement
– Eliminating the deficit – risk and uncertainty
• What has been happening to the income distribution
– Long term trends
• Changes to welfare
– Examples and populations
– Long term and short term
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 6: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Public sector debt at record high
0
20
40
60
80
100 1
99
0
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
% o
f n
ati
on
al
inco
me
Financial year
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Notes and sources: see Figure 5.2 of The IFS Green Budget: February 2015.
![Page 7: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
But not on a longer perspective
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 1
83
0
18
50
18
70
18
90
19
10
19
30
19
50
19
70
19
90
20
10
% o
f n
ati
on
al
inco
me
Financial year
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Notes and sources: see Figure 5.2 of The IFS Green Budget: February 2015.
Debt hasn’t exceeded
80% of national income
since 1967–68
But was higher from:
1830–31 to 1869–70
1916–17 to 1967–68
![Page 8: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Spending in historical perspective
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
19
48
19
51
19
54
19
57
-58
19
60
-61
19
63
-64
19
66
-67
19
69
-70
19
72
-73
19
75
-76
19
78
-79
19
81
-82
19
84
-85
19
87
-88
19
90
-91
19
93
-94
19
96
-97
19
99
-00
20
02
-03
20
05
-06
20
08
-09
20
11
-12
20
14
-15
20
17
-18
20
20
-21
% o
f n
ati
on
al
inco
me
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
1960s: 52%
real growth
1970s: 36%
real growth
1980s: 7%
real growth
1990s: 24%
real growth
2000s: 46%
real growth
2010s: 1%
real growth
![Page 9: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Change in total DEL – evidence in manifestos?
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21
Re
al te
rms,
20
15
–1
6=1
00
IFS: Conservative manifesto
IFS: Labour manifesto
July Budget 2015
Autumn Statement 2015
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Notes and sources: Crawford, et al (2015).
![Page 10: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Paid for by £27bn windfall?
• No
• £14bn net tax rise
• Small net forecasting adjustments
– Number cumulated over several years
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 11: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Eliminating the deficit in this parliament?
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
07
–0
8
20
08
–0
9
20
09
–1
0
20
10
–1
1
20
11
–1
2
20
12
–1
3
20
13
–1
4
20
14
–1
5
20
15
–1
6
20
16
–1
7
20
17
–1
8
20
18
–1
9
20
19
–2
0
% o
f n
ati
on
al
inco
me
Financial year
© Institute for Fiscal Studies Source: Office for Budget Responsibility.
Past forecast errors suggest 55% chance of a surplus in 2019–20
Forecast surplus in 2019–20 of £10bn
Average absolute forecasting error 5 years out ≈ £70bn
![Page 12: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
What about the income distribution?
• Everyone knows it’s been getting more unequal
• Only trouble is that in recent years the evidence would suggest otherwise
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 13: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Income inequality is lower than pre-recession
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Cu
mu
lati
ve
in
com
e c
ha
ng
e
Percentile point
Income measured before housing costs
Income measured after housing costs
Real income growth by percentile point, 2007–08 to 2013–14
Source: Fig 3.9 of Living Standards, Inequality and Poverty in the UK: 2015
![Page 14: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What about the income distribution?
• Everyone knows it’s been getting more unequal
• Only trouble is that in recent years the evidence would suggest otherwise
• Need to be much clearer what we mean
– The top 1% were pulling away in the 2000s
– Complex changes to wealth distribution
– There are big generational differences
– Sometimes it takes public perception a while to catch up with the evidence
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 15: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Incomes of pensioners catching up with the rest...
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Me
dia
n H
ou
seh
old
in
com
e o
f p
en
sio
ne
rs
rela
tive
to
no
n-p
en
sio
ne
rs
Before housing costs After housing costs
Median income of pensioners relative to that of non-pensioners, 1979 to 2013–14
Source: Fig 3.6 of Living Standards, Inequality and Poverty in the UK: 2015
![Page 16: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
What about the income distribution?
• Everyone knows it’s been getting more unequal
• Only trouble is that in recent years the evidence would suggest otherwise
• Need to be much clearer what we mean
– The top 1% were pulling away in the 2000s
– There are big generational differences
– Sometimes it takes public perception a while to catch up with the evidence
– Over a long period inequality has changed enormously
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
![Page 17: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
![Page 34: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
![Page 35: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
![Page 38: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
![Page 41: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
![Page 43: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
![Page 47: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
![Page 51: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
![Page 53: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
![Page 54: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
![Page 55: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
![Page 56: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
![Page 57: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
![Page 58: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
![Page 59: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
![Page 60: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
![Page 61: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
![Page 62: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
![Page 63: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
![Page 64: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
![Page 65: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
![Page 66: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
![Page 68: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
![Page 69: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
![Page 70: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
![Page 71: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
![Page 72: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
![Page 73: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
![Page 74: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
![Page 75: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
![Page 76: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
![Page 77: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
![Page 78: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
![Page 79: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Distributional effects of policy change
• Lots of examples in July Budget of how tax credit changes plus new National Living Wage would leave lots better off
• You can produce all sorts of examples
![Page 80: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Effect of Budget changes to taxes, benefits and the minimum wage on lone parent’s budget constraint in 2019–20
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
£300
£350
£400
£450
£500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Ne
t in
co
me
(£
/wk
, cu
rre
nt
pri
ce
s)
Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage
Pre-budget
+ tax and benefit changes
+ minimum wage
Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing Allowance rate, ‘National Living Wage’ 13% above NMW.
![Page 81: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Effect of Budget changes to taxes, benefits and the minimum wage on budget constraint of a second earner in a couple in 2019–20
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
£450
£500
£550
£600
£650
£700
£750
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Ne
t in
co
me
(£
/wk
, cu
rre
nt
pri
ce
s)
Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage
Pre-budget
+ tax and benefit changes
+ minimum wage
Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing Allowance rate, ‘National Living Wage’ 13% above NMW,
partner earns £25,000 a year.
![Page 82: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest All
Ch
an
ge
in
ne
t in
com
e
Income Decile Group
Pre-Autumn Statement
Post-Autumn Statement
Short-run impact of tax and benefit changes Changes in April 2016 only
Note: Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
![Page 83: Evidence in public policy Paul Johnson · Weekly hours worked at Minimum Wage Pre-budget + tax and benefit changes + minimum wage Assumes: 2 children aged under 5, median Local Housing](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071012/5fca9aa5b3840b10b72711a6/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest All
Ch
an
ge
in
ne
t in
com
e
Income Decile Group
Pre-Autumn Statement
Post-Autumn Statement
Long-run impact of tax and benefit changes All changes introduced May 2015-April 2019 fully in place
Note: Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.