Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil

Transportation System

Alan Drake,

Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009

New America Foundation

The Millennium Institute

• MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.

• Established in 1983, MI has assisted over 45 countries to prepare strategic studies of sustainable development possibilities.

• MI develops and disseminates advanced analytical tools to support strategic planning on critical issues.

• MI builds capacity in countries to use our tools to help address critical issues.

Three Policy Changes

• Renewable Energy

• Urban Rail and relatedTransportation Orientated Development

• Expand, Improve and Electrify Freight Railroads

2030vs. Business As Usual

• GDP: +13% • CO2: -38%• Oil Consumption: -24%• Employment: +7.2 million (+5.2%)

2030 is NOT year of maximum impact

2030vs. BAU

• GDP: +11.8% • CO2: -3.8%

• Oil Consumption: -27.6%• Employment: +6.7 million (+4.7%)

Subtract Renewable Energy

vs. BAU

• GDP: +9.7%• CO2: -6.2%

• Oil Consumption: -22%• Employment: +5.5 million (+3.8%)

ONLY Electrified and Expanded Freight Rail

2030

Maximum Commercial EffortAssumed

• Maximum Production or Construction that money alone can motivate

• Less than War Time Effort - People will do more when national survival is at stake

• Alberta Tar Sands Development was an example until a few months ago

Maximum Commercial Effort• Electrify 36,000 miles of mainline railroads in

7 years, Add HV AC & HV DC transmission• Doubletrack and improve mainline Railroads• Remove bottlenecks like CREATE• Electrify another 36,000 miles by 2030• $250 - $300 billion• 14,000 miles of Semi-HSR - $250 billion• Urban Rail - $60 billion/yr for 20 years• Wind, Solar PV and Pumped Storage - see ACORE• Encourage Bicycling and Walkable Neighborhoods

• During WW II, National & Military Policy was to ship everything possible by rail to save oil, rubber and trucks for the war effort

• 90% of ton-miles by rail, rest by truck, barge and pipeline during WW II

• Our goal is, over 20 years, to shift 85% of truck ton-miles to rail

Historical Accomplishments

Strategically Relevant US Railroads

Railroad Electrification Proposals of the 1970s

?

Economics of Rail Electrification

• 20 BTUs Diesel > 1 BTU Electricity– Freight 17 to 21:1 ratio– Urban Rail, Indirect > Direct Savings

Consider DC without Metro today

• Positive Cost Elasticity of Supply for Rail

• Negative Cost Elasticity of Supply for Roads

• Domestic Electricity instead of Imported Oil

Electrical Consumption for Transportation

• USA: 0.19%

• France: 2.3%• USA 2030: ~4% (Without considering EVs)

EVs - 17% for personal transport

Longer Term Impacts and

Systems Analysis

Challenges and Opportunities

Freight Scenario

Freight + Renewable Energy Scenario

Side Effects: Feedback Loops (1)Relative GDP and Emissions

GDP

CO2 Emissions

Side Effects: Feedback Loops (2)Relative GDP and Emissions

GDP

Freight

Freight + Renewable Energy

CO2 Emissions

Side Effects: Tradeoffs (3)Relative Oil Consumption

Renewable Energy generation increases average electricity prices and limits the reduction in oil consumption

Low electricity prices stimulate the adoption of e.g. hybrid vehicles

Freight + Renewable Energy

Freight Scenario

Conclusions

• There is no silver bullet to today’s problems;

• Electrified rail, especially when coupled with renewable energy, is a good option;

• Side effects and unintended consequences may arise and lead the system into unwanted and uncharted territories;

• Identifying potential threats early enough, allows to turn them into opportunities.

Thank you for your attention

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