EPSA_2018_Programme_FinalApothecary’s Wing Schloβ Schönbrunn Vienna, June 21-23 2018
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The 9th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association
Belfast, 20 – 22 June 2019
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EPSA Officers and Programme Committee Members of the EPSA Council 2018 Elected Members President Orit Kedar (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) Fabio Franchino (University of Milan) Isabela Mares (Columbia University) Dennis Quinn (Georgetown University) Vera E. Troeger (University of Warwick) Ex-officio Members Treasurer/Vice-President: Thomas Plümper (Vienna University of Economics) Executive Director: Ken Benoit (London School of Economics) Programme Director: Raymond Duch (University of Oxford) PSRM Editor: Vera Troeger (University of Warwick) PSRM Editor elect: Paul Kellstedt (Texas A&M)
Programme Committee 2018 Raymond Duch (University of Oxford) Orit Kedar (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) Thomas Plümper (Vienna University of Economics) Markus Wagner (University of Vienna) Lifetime Members
Kenneth Benoit Jonas Bunte Daniel Butler William Clark Jennifer Clark Raymond Duch
Kasper Hansen Macartan Humphreys Mark Kayser Carl Henrik Knutsen Michael Lewis-Beck Andrew Martin
Kristin Michelitch Diana O'Brien Thomas Plümper Ulrich Sieberer Scott Tyson
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Business Meetings, Organized Groups and Receptions Thursday Registration opens ......................................................................................................................................... 8:45 EUP Editorial Board Meeting (members only) Schönbrunner Stöckl ........................................................................................................................... 9:30 – 11:00 EPSA Council Meeting and Lunch (members only) Schönbrunner Stöckl ......................................................................................................................... 13:15 – 15:15 EPSA Business Meeting Maria Theresia .................................................................................................................................. 19:15 – 19:30 EPSA Welcome Craft Beer Reception Spitzhof and Orangerie Garden ........................................................................................................ 19:30 – 22:00 Friday Women Reception and Discussion Groups Conference Venue ................................................................................................................................ 8:00 – 9:15
PSRM Editorial Board Meeting (members only) Schönbrunner Stöckl ......................................................................................................................... 13:30 – 15:15 Italian Political Science Review Editorial Board Meeting (members only) Schönbrunner Stöckl .......................................................................................................................... 17:30 –19:00 Empfang der Stadt Wien Vienna Townhall, ...............................................................................................................................door at 19:30 official program starts at 20:15 the reception ends at midnight
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Announcements
Women’s Reception and Discussion Groups
Friday, June 22 8:00 - 9:15 AM
Apothecary’s Wing Schloss Schönbrunn
8:00 Foyer Spitzhof reception 8:30 Discussion groups (conference rooms) Scholars who identify as women are warmly invited to participate.
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Rathaus Wien
Vienna’s townhall is one of the city’s great neo-gothic buildings, finished in 1883. The building occupies nearly 14,000 square meters of the former Parade Ground. The reception will take place in the Festsaal.
Please take your EPSA nametag to the townhall. The reception is co-sponsered by the mayor of the city of Vienna and the European Political Science Association.
19:30 Entry and Drinks 20:15 Speches and Prizes 20:45 Food being served 24:00 End of the Reception
Entrance: Lichtenfelsgasse 2, 1010 Wien U2 Rathaus
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Directions
Tagungszentrum Schoenbrunn Apothekertrakt Schönbrunner Schloβstrasse / Grünbergstrasse 1130 Wien The venue is located on the U4, exit station “Schönbrunn”. Enties to the building are on Schloβstrasse, and through the gate on the left of the Restaurant Stöckl.
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Franz Stephan 2609 Party Unity
Habsburg 1210 Consequences of War and Combat
Leopold 2205 Public Preferences over Policy
Maria Theresia 1612 Political Ambiguity
Marie Antoinette 1114 Facets of Environmental Politics
Maximilian 2705 Referenda
Sisi 1213 Electoral Violence
Sophie 2903 Participation and Activism 11:20 - 13:15 Franz Joseph 1102 Corporate Taxation
Franz Stephan 2201 Legitimacy and Democracy
Habsburg 1107 The EU's Fiscal Opacity
Leopold 1603 Public Good Provision by Public and Private Agencies
Maria Theresia 2703 Perceptions of Parties
Marie Antoinette 2506 Personality, Interest and Behavior
Maximilian 2607 Methodological Advances in Studying Party Competition
Rudolph 2105 Attitudes to Immigration
Sisi 1403 Lab and Field Experiments: Conflict
Sophie 1303 Immigration and the Economy 13:25 - 15:20 Franz Joseph 1108 The Central Banker
Franz Stephan 1609 Political Socialization
Habsburg 1201 The Psychology of Conflict
Leopold 1110 Beyond Free Trade
Maria Theresia 1004 The Politics of Sanctions
Marie Antoinette 2503 Media and Political Communication Around the World
Maximilian 2306 Prime Ministers, Presidents, Powers, and Policy
Rudolph 1207 Civil War Onset and Escalation
Sisi 2603 Electoral Effects of Party Competition
Sophie 1404 Experiments: Attitudes and Elections 15:30 - 17:25 Franz Joseph 1502 Political Polarization
Franz Stephan 2701 Class, Welfare and Voting
Habsburg 1605 Crime and Punishment
Leopold 2403 Redistribution
Marie Antoinette 2502 Media and Politics
Maximilian 1901 Political and Economic Development
Rudolph 2507 Political Psychology
Sisi 1208 The Strategy of Conflict
Sophie 1405 Conjoint Experiment in Public Policies 17:35 - 19:15 Franz Joseph 2301 Coalitions and Government
Franz Stephan 2901 Immigrants as Political Actors
Habsburg 2402 Judicial Politics II
Leopold 2601 Congruence and Responsiveness
Maria Theresia 1007 State Capture
Marie Antoinette 2902 Immigration Policy
Maximilian 1410 Methodology for Electoral and Legislative Politics
Rudolph 2801 Autocracies and Hybrid Regimes
Sisi 2102 Corruption
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Friday
Franz Stephan 2605 Legislative Speech II
Habsburg 1905 Conditional Aid
Leopold 2202 Public Opinion
Marie Antoinette 2615 US Party Politics
Maximilian 2708 Vote Choice: Ideology and Interests
Rudolph 2304 EU: Policy and Institutions
Sisi 1103 Environmental Commitment and Compliance
Sophie 2606 Lobbies and Interest Groups 11:20 - 13:15 Franz Joseph 1611 Media and Politics
Franz Stephan 2707 Voter Choice and Issue Voting
Habsburg 1602 Bureaucracies and Political Representation
Leopold 2002 Advantaged and Disadvantaged Candidates
Maria Theresia 1608 EU Decision Making
Marie Antoinette 2802 Promoting Peace and Democracy
Maximilian 1408 Estimation and Inference
Rudolph 2101 Clientalism
Sisi 1504 Political Institutions
Sophie 1204 Repression and Discrimination 13:25 - 15:20 Franz Joseph 2303 EU: Institutions and Bargaining
Franz Stephan 2710 Voters and Policy
Habsburg 1205 The Politics of Protest
Leopold 2501 Information and Attitudes
Maria Theresia 1109 Political Response to Economic Shocks
Marie Antoinette 2905 Turnout
Rudolph 2612 Party Strategies
Sisi 1601 Political Careers
Sophie 1402 Information and Data 15:30 - 17:25 Franz Joseph 1615 Party Politics: Internal Perspectives
Franz Stephan 2604 Legislative Speech I
Habsburg 1211 Protest and Violence
Leopold 2003 Candidate and Incumbent Characteristics
Maria Theresia 1202 International Security
Marie Antoinette 2611 Party Position-taking
Maximilian 1401 Dealing with Data
Rudolph 2302 EU Institutions
Sisi 1302 Inequality and Redistribution 2
Sophie 1005 Space and Time in Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data 17:35 - 19:30 Franz Joseph 2610 Party Ideologies
Franz Stephan 2709 Voter Decision-making
Habsburg 2103 Government Transparency
Maria Theresia 1003 Game Theoretic Models of War and Peace
Marie Antoinette 2904 The Impact of Refugee Settlement
Maximilian 1604 Attitudes to Brexit
Rudolph 2706 Strategic Voters and Strategic Candidates
Sisi 2608 New Parties
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Saturday
Leopold 1606 The Nature of Democracy
Maria Theresia 2206 Public Sentiments toward the EU
Marie Antoinette 2704 Populism and the Vote
Maximilian 2004 Candidate Ties and Traits
Rudolph 2204 Public Opinion, Extremism and Conflict
Sisi 1111 The Logics of Social Policy
Sophie 1407 Methods for Analyzing Text 11:20 - 13:15 Franz Joseph 1209 After the Civil War
Franz Stephan 2504 Media Effects
Habsburg 1101 The Politics of International Investment
Leopold 1613 The Rise of Populism
Maria Theresia 2711 Policy and Accountability
Marie Antoinette 2702 Economic Voting
Maximilian 1006 Formal Models of Autocratic Government
Rudolph 2005 Candidates and Incumbents
Sisi 1112 Austerity and Fiscal Policy
Sophie 1409 Polls and other Surveys 13:25 - 15:20 Franz Joseph 1206 Resources and Conflict
Franz Stephan 2001 Legislator Quality and Representation
Habsburg 1113 The Politics of International Economics
Leopold 1503 Coalition Formation
Marie Antoinette 2602 Electoral Competition
Maximilian 1104 Politics after the Economic Crisis
Rudolph 1701 Foreign Policy in a Volatile World
Sisi 1203 Democratization
Sophie 2305 Parliaments and Coalitions 15:30 - 17:10 Franz Joseph 1902 Policy Diffusion
Leopold 2203 Public Opinion and Brexit
Marie Antoinette 2613 Radical Parties
Maximilian 1616 Separatism and Polarization in Europe
Rudolph 1001 Election Systems: Theory, Measurement, and Evidence
Sisi 1212 Global Politics and World Order
Sophie 1406 Beyond Significance
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Academic Program Thursday June 21 1114 Facets of Environmental Politics Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Vally Koubi Discussant: Patrick Bayer Elina Brutschin, Andreas Fleig Security Concerns and Investments in Alternative Energy Sources Vally Koubi, Lena Schaffer, Gabriele Spilker, Tobias Böhmelt “Trapped” Populations in Environmental Migration Thomas Bernauer, Liam F. McGrath Creating a Winning Coalition through Carbon Taxation? 1210 Consequences of War and Combat Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Habsburg Chair: Anna R. Oltman Discussant: Denisa Kostovicova Mateo Vasquez Outside Rebellion: Social Networks and Reintegration of Ex-combatants Anna R. Oltman Sub-state Actors and Humanitarian Foreign Policy: Explaining Refugee Protection Denisa Kostovicova, Tom Paskhalis Gender, Justice and Deliberation: Women’s Voice in Post-Conflict Reconciliation Ido Yahel, Ruth Zait Inclusion-Exclusion Patterns of Women in Combat Roles: Lessons from National liberation movements
1213 Electoral Violence Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Sisi Chair: Isabela Mares Discussant: Mascha Rauschenbach Rubén Ruiz-Rufino, Sarah Birch The effect of alternation in power on electoral violence Inken von Borzyskowski, Patrick M. Kuhn Who are the Perpetrators and Victims of Electoral Violence? Evidence from Kenya Jesse Dillon-Savage The legacies of prior regime type and electoral violence 1612 Political Ambiguity Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Nicole Rae Baerg Discussant: Royce Carroll Carolina Plescia, Jakob-Moritz Eberl Against all Evidence? Explaining Citizen Preferences for Government Formation after Election Results are Announced Zachary Greene The Electoral Significance of Divided Behavior: The Conditional Consequences of Voter Perceptions Tristan Klingelhöfer, Jochen Müller Voters’ perceptions of party disunity: The conditional impact of programmatic heterogeneity Guido Tiemann Party Ambiguity, Voter Uncertainty and Vote Choice
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2104 Political Scandal and Corruption Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Ruth Dassonneville Discussant: Olesya Tkacheva Eva Anduiza, Jordi Muñoz, Sofia Breitenstein Is the paradox of corruption voting a case of social desirability? Edina Szöcsik Corruption in Party Competition and Voter Turnout Ruth Dassonneville Partisanship and Corruption Experimental Evidence of Attitudes towards Corruption in the United States 2205 Public Preferences over Policy Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Leopold Chair: Gema M. García-Albacete Discussant: Tom O'Grady Robert A. Huber, Michael L. Wicki, Thomas Bernauer Disentangling Public Support. The Role of Perceived Effectiveness, Fairness and Intrusiveness in Explaining Public Support for Mobility Policies Soenke Ehret Reflection, Deliberation and Retirement Decision Making: Evaluating the Validity of Social Media Statements from Reddit Elena Pupaza Who pays the price for unpopular economic policies? UK’s Electorate Response to Changes in Retirement Age. Gema M. García-Albacete, Juan J. Fernández, Antonio Jaime-Castillo, Jonas Radl Public Knowledge of Population Trends and Preferences over Pension Policies. Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Germany, Spain and the United States
2401 Judicial Politics I Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Rudolph Chair: Mikael Holmgren Discussant: Silje Synnøve Lyder Hermansen Mikael Holmgren, Daniel Naurin Collective Action Problems in International Courts Nauro F Campos, Laszlo Bruzst Imbalances of Power and the Buildup of the Rule of Law: An Empirical Analysis Philipp A. Schroeder Constitutional review and political constraints: The effects of legislator preferences on judicial decision- making Jason P. Casellas, Scott Hofer Do Latino Judges in the United States Decide Differenty? Evidence from the federal courts 2609 Party Unity Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Filip Kostelka Discussant: Bruno Castanho Silva Jochen Rehmert Candidacy Eligibility Criteria and Party Unity Carles Boix, Filip Kostelka, Christophe Lévêque Political congresses and party cohesion Konstantinos Matakos, Orestis Troumpounis, Janne Tukiainen, Dimitrios Xefteris Electoral Rule Effects on Intra-party Cohesion: Theory and Evidence David M. Willumsen Individual policy preferences and party unity in the European Parliament: Incentives and behaviour
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2705 Referenda Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Maximilian Chair: Stefanie Walter Discussant: Denise Traber Stefanie Walter National votes with international consequences Arndt Leininger Is there an economic vote in referendums? Daniela Giannetti A multi-dimensional analysis of referendums. Evidence from the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum. 2903 Participation and Activism Thu 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Sophie Chair: Mirya R Holman Discussant: Henning Finseraas Toni Rodon, Marc Guinjoan Beaten ballots: The Effect of Police Violence on Voter Participation Lukas Hensel, Johannes Hermle, Anselm Rink, Christopher Roth Beliefs about Effectiveness and Political Activism Mirya R Holman Local Economic Crises and Political Participation Raffael Heiss, Alice Binder, Jörg Matthes, Diana Sander Are Adolescents Really Disengaged? Investigating the Appeal of Old and New Spaces for Political Participation in a Citizen Science Project
1102 Corporate Taxation Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Laura Seelkopf Discussant: Amy Pond Mi Jeong Shin, Chia-yi Lee Designing Corporate Tax Policy in Authoritarian Countries Philipp Genschel, Laura Seelkopf Lineages of the Tax State Timm Betz, Amy Pond Creating a Seller’s Market: How Governments Privilege their Own Debt Amy Pond, Christina Zafeiridou The Responsiveness of Financial Assets to Taxation Xiaobo Lu, Didac Queralt, Jay Kao A Tale of Two Regimes? Taxation, Political Bargaining, and the Fiscal Contract in China and Taiwan 1107 The EU's Fiscal Opacity Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Habsburg Chair: Friederike L Kelle Discussant: Ignacio Jurado Reinout A. Van der Veer Technocratic executives between competence and conformity: Evidence from the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedur Roman Senninger The Political Geography of European Union Funding: A Spatial Point Pattern Analysis of Local Allocation in Denmark Sebastiaan Wijsman The Political Economy of Bailout Decisions in the European Economic and Monetary Union Camilla Mariotto, Alessandro Pellegata Should EU Member States help each other? Public attitudes towards cross-national solidarity
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1303 Immigration and the Economy Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Sophie Chair: Federica Genovese Discussant: Joan-Josep Vallbé Federica Genovese Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Migration Incidents and Media Attitudes in Southern Europe Dalston Ward, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner Does Citizenship Facilitate the Economic Integration of Immigrants? Gerda Hooijer Labor Market Competition and Demands for Social Protection: Evidence from the United Kingdom and Ireland Laura Maxwell, Constanza Sanhueza Petrarca Democracy and Immigration Andrew S. Rosenberg Emigration Underflows and Economic Development 1403 Lab and Field Experiments: Conflict Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Sisi Chair: Alexandra L. Scacco Discussant: Peter John Han Il Chang, Leonid Peisakhin The legitimacy effect of a democratic election between Sunni and Shia Muslims: A lab-in-the-field experiment in Lebanon Anselm Rink, Natalie Carlson Does Unemployment Cause Rebellion? Field Experimental Evidence from Zimbabwe Resul Umit Rallies around the Flag-Draped Coffins: The Electoral Effects of Security Force Casualties in Terror Attacks Florian G. Kern, Simone Dietrich, Matt Winters Land Access and Conflict in Uganda: The Role of Women’s Land Rights Advocates
Alexandra L. Scacco, Shana S. Warren Social Contact and Political Attitudes: Field Experimental Evidence from Nigeria 1603 Public Good Provision by Public and Private Agencies Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Leopold Chair: Kristen Kao Discussant: Ana Bracic Kattalina M. Berriochoa Values and Institutions: Explaining Why Rural Americans Demand Less from Government Adam Harris, Kristen Kao, Ellen Lust Determinants of Local Service Provision in Africa: Reconceptualizing Ethnic Favoritism Monika Bauhr, Ruth D. Carlitz Transparency for whom? Transparency and Local Public Goods Provision in Non-Democratic Settings Rutger Hagen Governing Global Public Goods Provided by Private Parties; how Polycentric Governance can Regulate Social Networks Mariaelisa Epifanio, Vera Troeger Maternity leaves across UK universities: why are some universities more generous than others? 2105 Attitudes to Immigration Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Rudolph Chair: Sabrina J. Mayer Discussant: Melanie Kolbe Amanda L. Garrett Political Opportunism and “Racially” Coded Campaigns: How the European Refugee Crisis Amplified Brexit’s Anti-Immigrant Message William L Allen Immigration News Coverage and Public Perceptions in Britain: Evidence from Linguistics and Time Series Data
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Richard Traunmüller, Marc Helbling Global Migration, Fundamentalist Religion and Citizens’ Preferences for Immigration Regulation: Evidence from a Cross-national Survey Experiment Judith Spirig “You don’t enter the media business to get rich”: How a change in the political orientation of a newspaper affects voting behavior in immigration referendums Florian Bader Preferences concerning a fair distribution of burdens in the European refugee crisis 2201 Legitimacy and Democracy Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Markus Wagner Discussant: Michael F. Meffert Rebekah Tromble, Michael F. Meffert Tweeting with Benefits: The Effect of Politicians’ Twitter Interactions on Citizens’ Perceptions and Efficacy Markus Wagner, Thomas M. Meyer Who won the election? Voter perceptions of the legitimacy of a government mandate Sjifra de Leeuw, Joost van Spanje, Roderik Rekker, Rachid Azrout A matter of nostalgia: How authoritarian traditions shape the distribution of democratic support on the left-right dimension Roberto Stefan Foa, Chris Claassen, Yascha Mounk Support for Democracy and the Populist Wave 2506 Personality, Interest and Behavior Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Emily Anne West Discussant: Shanto Iyengar Emily Anne West, Dominik Duell Descriptive Representation's Effect on Risk Taking Behavior
Adam J. Ramey, Gary E. Hollibaugh, Jr., Jonathan D. Klingler More Than Words: Extracting Latent Psychopolitical Traits and Preferences from Written Text Jiannan Zhao, Anil Menon Invisible Scars: Memories of Maoist Era Instability and their impact on political interest in China Conrad Ziller, Carl Berning Personality Traits and Policy Preferences on Minority Rights Erik Gahner Larsen Dynamic political interest 2607 Methodological Advances in Studying Party Competition Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Maximilian Chair: Tarik Abou-Chadi Discussant: Shane Singh Stefan Müller Prospective and Retrospective Rhetoric: A New Dimension of Party Competition and Campaign Strategies Bruno Castanho Silva Identifying Populism in Electoral Manifestos Using Structural Topic Models Whitney Hua, Tarik Abou-Chadi Networked Populism: Characterizing the Public Rhetoric of Populist Parties in Europe Bastiaan Bruinsma, Kostas Gemenis Challenging the Manifesto Project Data Monopoly: A New Database Holger Döring, Sven Regel Party Facts
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2703 Perceptions of Parties Thu 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Sisi Chair: Patrick Fournier Discussant: Diana Z. O'Brien Ida B. Hjermitslev Coalition-based Inferences about Policy Positions of Opposition Parties Seonghui Lee, Randolph Stevenson, Philip Santoso The Nature and Meaning of the Left-Right Metaphor in Politics Martin Haselmayer, Lisa Hirsch, Marcelo Jenny Same same but different? Asymmetric perceptions of party issue strategies Diana Z. O'Brien (Fe)male Leaders and Citizens' Perceptions of Political Parties Mathias W. Tromborg Appealing broadly while appearing coherent: Resolving an electoral dilemma 1004 The Politics of Sanctions Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Gerald Schneider Discussant: Jerg Gutmann Andrew J. Coe Sanctions as Instruments of Regime Change Paulina Pospieszna, Clara Portela, Joanna Skrzypczyska Target Counteract and Sanctions Survival: The EU- Russia Sanctions Gerald Schneider, Patrick M. Weber If Russia were in Africa: A Counterfactual Analysis of EU and U.S. Sanctions and Non-Sanctions, 1989 to 2015 Jerg Gutmann, Matthias Neuenkirch, Florian Neumeier Sanctioned to Death? The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Life Expectancy and its Gender Gap
1108 The Central Banker Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey Discussant: Despina Alexiadou Miklos Sebok, Kristin Makszin Views from the top: Governors and the Mission Evolution of the Hungarian Central Bank Cristina Bodea The Value of a Seat: When are Women Elevated to Central Bank Boards? Despina Alexiadou, Hakan Gunaydin, William Spaniel, Danial Hoepfner Calming the Markets: When technocratic appointments signal credibility Jana Grittersova Politicians and the Monetary Policy of the Bank of England Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey Accountability and Oversight of Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Fiscal Policy in UK Parliamentary Committees: A View from the Inside 1110 Beyond Free Trade Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Leopold Chair: Irene Menendez Discussant: Raymond Hicks In Song Kim, Soubhik Barari, Weihuang Wong Democracy and Industry-varying Liberalization: Evidence from a New Tariff-line Dataset Jonas B. Bunte, Thomas R. Gray The Congressional Politics of Export-Import Bank Reauthorization Raymond Hicks, Matt Connelly, Nathan Fabius Trade and Economic Diplomacy Timm Betz The Ability to Protect: Tariff Evasion and Trade Policies
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Irene Menendez, Erica Owen, Stefanie Walter Low Skill Products by High Skill Workers: The Distributive Effects of Trade in Developing Countries 1201 The Psychology of Conflict Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Habsburg Chair: Laura Saavedra-Lux Discussant: Kerim Can Kavakli Janina Dill, Livia Schubiger Attitudes towards Killing in War Carlo Koos Conflict-Related Sexual Violence, Misreporting and Social Resilience: Evidence from a List Experiment Chagai M. Weiss, Dan Miodownik Social Cohesion and Violence: Explaining Riots in East Jerusalem Laura Saavedra-Lux Reshaping Incentives In Post-Conflict Societies: Social Inequality and Conflict Recurrence Noam Lupu, Leonid Peisakhin Legacy of Civil War Violence in Guatemala: Intergenerational Effects among the Ixil 1207 Civil War Onset and Escalation Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Rudolph Chair: Christoph Mikulaschek Discussant: Christoph Mikulaschek Sebastian Ziaja Political liberalization and the monopoly of violence Jonas Vestby, Halvard Buhaug, Nina von Uexkull Economic growth, structural change, and civil conflict Kevin T. Greene Spoiled For Choice: Using Vector Autoregression to Unify Theory and Measurement of Spoilers in Intrastate Conflicts
1404 Experiments: Attitudes and Elections Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Sophie Chair: Liam F. McGrath Discussant: Florian Foos Jan Sauermann Fairness or Foresight: Why Is Majority Rule Stable? Louise Thorn Bøttkjær, Mogens Kamp Justesen Why do voters vote for corrupt candidates? Experimental evidence from South Africa Liam F. McGrath, Thomas Bernauer, and Vally Koubi A New Spatial and Valence Model of Preferences for Delegation with Evidence From Experiments in Germany, Switzerland, and the UK. Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez, Ignacio Jurado Economic Integration and Economic Voting: Experimental Evidence Mogens K. Justesen, Anders Woller Nielsen, Jacob Gerner Hariri Electoral clientelism and the cost of voting 1609 Political Socialization Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Anja Neundorf Discussant: Gabriel Leon Shanto Iyengar, Tobias Konitzer, Kent Tedin The Home as a Political Fortress Scott Abramson, Anderson Frey Race and Partisan Sorting in the US: Evidence from the Housing Market Anja Neundorf, Ksenia Northmore-Ball Political Habit Formation under Authoritarian Elections Michael Wicki, Sergio Guidon, Thomas Bernauer, Kay Axhausen The Decline of Hometown Glory: Is Increased Mobility a Driver for Institutional Change?
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Gabriel Leon, Juta Kawalerowicz Gentrification and social order: evidence from the 2011 London riots 2306 Prime Ministers, Presidents, Powers, and Policy Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Maximilian Chair: Jonathan D Klingler Discussant: Stefanie Bailer Cristina Bucur, Petra Schleiter Presidential assembly dissolution powers and bargaining about government formation Wolfgang C. Müller, Daniel Strobl, Hanna Bäck, Mariyana Angelova Prime Minister Powers and Reform Productivity across Western European Countries Toby B. Greene Foreign Policy Anarchy and Sabotage in Coalitions: Cases from Britain and Israel Patrícia Calca Presidential Power in Parliamentary Democracies: The Portuguese Case 2503 Media and Political Communication Around the World Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Akitaka Matsuo Discussant: Adriana Bunea Bernd Schlipphak, Mujtaba Isani Popular vs. elite cues in (non-)authoritarian contexts: Findings from Jordan, Saudi-Arabia and Tunisia Shan-Jan Sarah Liu Gendering Immigration: Media Framings of the Economic and Cultural Consequences of Immigratio Hannah L.S. Bailey A two faced rhetoric? How China talks to its people and the world.
Megan MacDuffee Metzger Hacking Hearts and Minds: RT, Social Media and Russian State Strategies of Information Bart Joachim Bes, Christian Rauh, Martijn Schoonvelde Undermining, obfuscating, or defending European integration? Public communication of European executives in times of EU politicization 2603 Electoral Effects of Party Competition Thu 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Sisi Chair: Gary Cox Discussant: Ingrid Mauerer Lorenzo De Sio, Till Weber Problem solving vs. conflict mobilization: a comparative analysis of electoral performance based on issue yield theory Alejandro Ecker, Julia Schulte-Cloos Electoral Competitiveness in Multi-Level Systems Werner Krause Masters of their own fate? Multi-dimensional political competition and the electoral performance of West European radical left parties Maurits J. Meijers, Christopher J. Williams Biter Parties: The Electoral Benefits of Mainstream Parties Shifting Positions in the Face of Niche Threat Theres Matthieß Electoral consequences of party pledge fulfilment 1002 Advances and Application in Regression Discontinuity Designs Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Dominik Hangartner Discussant: Leandro De Magalhaes Elias Dinas, Florian Foos, Vicky Fouka The red line: Forced displacement and support for anti-immigrant parties
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Salomo Hirvonen, Jaakko Meriläinen, Nelson Ruiz, Janne Tukiainen How much should we trust RDD estimates of the personal incumbency advantage? Moritz Marbach, Ehsan Vallizadeh, Dominik Hangartner, Niklas Harder, Jens Hainmueller Do Language Courses Increase Refugee Employment? Dominik Hangartner, Lukas Schmid, Dalston Ward, Stefan Boes The Long-Term Effect of University Education on Political Attitudes and Behavior Judith Spirig Do fewer judges reach different decisions? Studying a Procedural Change in Asylum Appeal Decision- Making. 1208 The Strategy of Conflict Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Sisi Chair: Jack Paine Discussant: Santiago Sosa Altaf Ali, Nils Metternich, Tatjana Stankovic Negotiations in civil wars: fighting and bargaining in the shadow of enforcement Krzysztof Krakowski, Anselm Rink, Max Schaub Ethnic riots undermine community cooperation: evidence from Kyrgyzstan Christoph Mikulaschek, Saurabh Pant, Beza Tesfaye Winning Hearts and Minds in Civil Wars: Governance, Leadership Change, and Support for Violence in Iraq Jack Paine Political Violence in Africa: Destructive Legacies of Pre-Colonial States Christian Gläßel, Katrin Paula, Mascha Rauschenbach Mitigating Electoral Violence? The effect of Mandatory Voting
1405 Conjoint Experiment in Public Policies Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Sophie Chair: Richard Traunmüller Discussant: Soenke Ehret Mariana T. Alvarado Chavez Fairness and Tax Preferences: A Conjoint Experiment Tomoko Matsumoto, Kenneth McElwain, Junko Kato Do People Care About Fiscal Discipline? A Survey Experiment on Budget Design in Japan Richard Traunmüller, Matthias Revers What Are We Allowed To Say? A Survey Experiment on the Regulation of Free Speech Mariel McKone Leonard, Guido Ropers Liberal immigration policy and opinion backlash against asylum-seekers: Evidence from a survey experiment in Germany Soenke Ehret Social Policy Judgments, Pensions, and Implicit Attitudes 1502 Political Polarization Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Paul M. Kellstedt Discussant: Gianmarco Daniele Nikitas Konstantinidis A Model of Accountability under Supranational Policy Constraints Oul Han Using Area Studies for Qualitative Validation and Contextualization of Text as Data for Comparative Politics Paul C. Bauer, Davide Morisi The Polarization of Political Trust across Europe Damien Bol, Konstantinos Matakos, Orestis Troumpounis, Dimitrios Xefteris Electoral Rules, Strategic Entry and Polarization: Duverger's Law in Theory and the Lab
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Paul M. Kellstedt, Maxwell Allamong, Benjamin Beutel, Jongwoo Jeong The Evolution of Partisanship in America: Evidence from Open-Ended Survey Responses 1605 Crime and Punishment Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Habsburg Chair: Omar Garcia-Ponce Discussant: Patrick Kuhn Omar Garcia-Ponce, Lauren Young, Thomas Zeitzoff Anger and Support for Punitive Justice in Mexicos Drug War Ben W. Ansell, Johannes Lindvall Governing the Condemned: Prisons and the Modern State Melina Altamirano, Sarah Berens, Sandra Ley The Welfare State amid Crime: How victimization and perceptions of insecurity affect preferences for redistribution in Latin America Mariaelisa Epifanio Determinants of anti-drugs regulations Lucas M. Novaes Voting for the Police: Law Enforcement, Politics, and Urban Violence 1901 Political and Economic Development Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Maximilian Chair: Scott Gates Discussant: Carlo Koos Mi Jeong Shin Why Do Some Countries Have Stricter Regulations on Profit-Shifting of Multinationals Than Others? Sam van Noort Industrialization and Democracy Vanessa A. Boese, Scott Gates, Katrin Kamin, Jochen Kluve Quadrangulating Peace
Vilde L. Djuve Reinvestigating the economic effects of political instability Carlo Koos Female Political Leaders and Human Development 2403 Redistribution Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Leopold Chair: Tobias Tober Discussant: Lee Savage Tobias Tober, Marius R. Busemeyer Breaking the Link? How European Integration Shapes Social Policy Demand and Supply Sung Min Han, Kangwook Han Who Distribute? Leaders’ Background and Redistribution. Joep Schaper, Brian Burgoon, Matthijs Rooduijn How The Immigration-Welfare Linkage in the Media Debate Affects Support for Welfare Redistribution Verena R. Fetscher Social Identity, other-regarding concerns, and preferences for redistribution Ellen Lust, Hans Lueders, Jumana Alaref We Don't Need No Education: Resource Endowments and the Demand for Service Provision 2502 Media and Politics Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Hannah S Chapman Discussant: Bernd Schlipphak Jana Laura Egelhofer, Loes Aaldering, Sophie Lecheler You are Fake News! How the term Fake News is used to undermine news media – A content analysis.
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Hannah S Chapman, Theodore P. Gerber Dimensions of Electronic Political Engagement: New Media, Old Media, and Public Opinion in Russia’s Contested Election Season of 2011-12 Debra Leiter, Jack Reilly, Mary Stegmaier Of Echo Chambers and Contrarians: The Effect of Network Partisan Agreement on the Quality of Citizen Forecasts in the 2015 Canadian Election Constanza Sanhueza Petrarca, Steven Wilson The 2017 French Presidential and Legislative Elections Campaigns in Social Media: Trends, Popularity, and Ideological Distance 2507 Political Psychology Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Rudolph Chair: Annemarie S. Walter Discussant: Kirill Zhirkov Julian Aichholzer, Johann Gründl Does uncertainty avoidance entail populism or right-wing populism? Annemarie S. Walter, David P. Redlawsk Explaining Voters’ Emotional Responses to Politicians’ Immoral Behaviour Guillem Rico, Eva Anduiza, Marc Guinjoan When the People Get Mad: Emotions about the Economy and Support for Populism in Europe Kirill Zhirkov Perceived Skin Tone Differences and Anti-Immigrant Attitudes Isabella Rebasso, Bert Bakker, Gijs Schumacher Winning over the angry and anxious: How personality and framing influence vote choice
2701 Class, Welfare and Voting Thu 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Piero Stanig Discussant: Martin Elff Diane Bolet Labour Market Competition and Far-Right Voting: the French Front National Piero Stanig, Italo Colantone The China Shock on European Minds: Import Competition and Attitudes in Western Europe Tarik Abou-Chadi, Thomas Kurer Economic Risks within Households and Voting for the Radical Right Monika Koeppl-Turyna, Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik Cushion or catalyst? How welfare state generosity moderates the impact of economic vulnerability on populist radical right support Patricia Oberluggauer Sociocultural preferences of social classes in postindustrial democracies 1007 State Capture Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Miriam Golden Discussant: Lucas Novaes Jasper Cooper Does power corrupt? Evidence from random recruitment of candidates into the police force in Papua New Guinea Miriam Golden, Stephane Wolton Political Selection and Equilibrium Shift from High to Low Corruption Beatriz Magaloni, Cesangari Lopez-Martinez, Alberto Diaz-Cayeros Police Corruption and Mafia Extortion in Mexico Isabela Mares, Lauren Young Conditionality and Coercion: Electoral Clientelism in Eastern Europe
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1410 Methodology for Electoral and Legislative Politics Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Maximilian Chair: Guido Tiemann Discussant: Guy Whitten Lukas F. Stoetzer, Garret Binding Non-separable Preferences in the Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Votes Andrew Peterson Deep Learning of Political Texts for Estimating Ideal Points and Uncertainty Guido Tiemann Focusing on the Dependent Variable in Models of Electoral Choice Hans Noel, Dan Hopkins Is John McCain more conservative than Rand Paul? Using activists' pairwise comparisons to measure ideology 1501 Formal Models of Decisions in Politics Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Sophie Chair: Benoit S Y Crutzen Discussant: Patrick Le Bihan Sebastian Fehrler, Volker Hahn Committee Decision-Making under the Threat of Leaks Benoit S Y Crutzen, Sabine Flamand, Nicolas Sahuguet On the optimality of closed lists under proportional representation Korhan Kocak A Theory of Unpopular Policies Lawrence Rothenberg, Peter Bils, Robert Carroll Rubberstamping
2102 Corruption Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Sisi Chair: Noah Buckley Discussant: Edina Szöcsik Antonella A. Bandiera A Bonanza for Bad Politicians: Informal Gold Mining and Criminal Candidates in Peru Olesya Tkacheva Personal Networks and Reporting of Corruption Marc Puigmulé, Albert Solé-Ollé, Pilar Sorribas Government Fragmentation and Political corruption Noah Buckley It's a Dirty Job: Consequences of Corruption in Corrupt Contexts 2301 Coalitions and Government Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Lanny W. Martin Discussant: Heike Klüver Simon Otjes, David Willumsen Government Alternation and the Quality of the Democracy Svenja Krauss, Maria Thürk Stability of minority governments and the role of support agreements Daniela Giannetti, Luca Pinto Re-assessing the impact of intra-party politics on coalition formation Lisa Keenan Gender differences in portfolio allocation: evidence from the Republic of Ireland
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2402 Judicial Politics II Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Habsburg Chair: Mikael Persson Discussant: Huang-Ting Yan Philipp Meyer Transparency or Newsworthiness? The Probability of Constitutional Court Press Release Occurrence Sebastian Sternberg Why do courts craft vague opinions? Evidence from a comparative study of constitutional court rulings in Germany and France using quantitative text analysis Silje Synnøve Lyder Hermansen, Daniel Naurin Will do? Selecting judges on the basis of policy preferences or performance indicators. Mikael Persson Public Support for Constitutional Changes in Sweden 1956-2010 2601 Congruence and Responsiveness Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Leopold Chair: Stefanie Reher Discussant: Raimondas Ibenskas Anthony M. Bertelli, Aram Hur How Nationalism Affects Policy Responsiveness Anna Gwiazda Women and Public Policy: Representing Women’s Issues in Poland Ruth D. Carlitz, Valeriya Mechkova Gendered Accountability: When and Why Do Governments Respond to Women's Policy Priorities? Stefanie Reher Bridging the Gap? Opinion Congruence between Political Elites and Citizens with Disabilities
2801 Autocracies and Hybrid Regimes Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Rudolph Chair: Franziska Keller Discussant: Arturas Rozenas Arturas Rozenas, Denis Stukal How Autocrats Manipulate Economic News: Evidence from Russia’s State-Controlled Television Julie George, Franziska Keller, Scott Radnitz Political Networks and Competition: Sharing the spoils or building partisanship? Political party development and defections in hybrid regimes Valentin Schröder When Partial Democracy Is Bound to Stay: Middle- class Fragmentation and the Non-process of Democratization Matilde Thorsen When Are Dictators Ideologically Motivated? Investigating the Behavior of Dictators 2901 Immigrants as Political Actors Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Amanda L. Garrett Discussant: Roberto Foa Michalis Moutselos A Muslim vote? Evidence from three West- European Democracies Achim Goerres, Sabrina J. Mayer, Dennis C. Spies Established Explanations or Migrant-Specific Factors? Determinants of Vote Choice among Russian Germans and Germans of Turkish Descent at the 2017 Bundestag Election from the Immigrant German Election Study (IMGES) Melanie Kolbe Understanding Immigration Attitudes among Immigrants: A Survey Experiment on Political and Economic Drivers Julius Lagodny, Pauliina Patana Immigrants in politics: The effects of immigrant minorities’ presence in legislature
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2902 Immigration and Minority Policy Thu 17:35 - 19:15 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Dalston Ward Discussant: Lukas Rudolph Gerald Schneider, Christina I. Zuber Sixteen ways of becoming German? Naturalization decisions in the Länder, 1990 to 2016 Henning Finseraas, Marianne Røed, Pål Schøne The Impact of Labour Immigration on Union Density Joan-Josep Vallbé, Markus González-Beilfuss, Barak Kalir Across the Sloping Meadow Floor. An empirical analysis of pre-removal detention of deportable non-citizens Ana Bracic Finding Animus: Using the Public Goods Game to Explore Discrimination
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Friday June 22 1103 Environmental Commitment and Compliance Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Sisi Chair: James Morrow Discussant: Elina Brutschin Patrick Bayer Firm Compliance with Regulation from International Treaties: Evidence from European Carbon Markets Gina Anghelescu Democracy, economic development, environmental policy or just individual characteristics? A cross- country longitudinal analysis of Europeans’ commitment to protecting the environment Lisa Lechner, Gabriele Spilker Trading up environmental commitment: Voluntary commitment to environmental standards in preferential trade agreements and regime spill-over 1610 All Politics are Local Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Alexandra C. Hartman Discussant: Jasper Cooper Jonathan Chapman Inequality and welfare policy in late Victorian England Alexandra C. Hartman, Heather Huntington, Adi Greif, Kate Marple-Cantrell The impact of communal property rights reform on governance and gender norms: Quasi- experimental evidence from Liberia Amuitz Garmendia Madariaga, Sandra Leon, Pablo Beramendi Fiscal decentralization and the political survival of subnational governments
1614 Party Strategies Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Jon Fiva Discussant: Jochen Müller David Fortunato, Thiago Silva, Laron K. Williams Strategies for studying voters' perceptions of party brands Jon Fiva, Simon Hix Electoral Reform and Voter Coordination Martin Ejnar Hansen, Robert Klemmensen Conflict Dimensions in Legislatures with No Formal Party Groups Thomas Gschwend, Indridi H. Indridason, Lukas F. Stoetzer Pre-electoral Coalition Strategies in Multiparty Systems 1905 Conditional Aid Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Habsburg Chair: James Lee Discussant: Florian Weiler James Lee Economic Aid and the Strategy of Containment Florian Weiler, Carola Klöck, Kevin Adams Transnational climate impacts and adaptation aid allocation Kerim Can Kavakli, Nils-Christian Bormann Do Aid Donors Discriminate Among Victims of State Repression (and Why)?
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2202 Public Opinion Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Leopold Chair: Ana Catalano Weeks Discussant: Matthew Loveless Julia Partheymüller Using flexible distributed lag models to study the dynamics of public opinion Rosalind Shorrocks, Nicole Martin, Jonathan Mellon Gender and the Transmission of Partisanship within the Family Daniela Beyer, Christian Breunig Individual-level Determinants of Most Important Problems – Socioeconomic Status vs. Ideological Screening 2304 EU: Policy and Institutions Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Rudolph Chair: Steffen Hurka Discussant: Zoltan Fazekas Ieva Grumbinaite Not much beyond the common programme? The limited benefits of the Trio Presidency of the Council of the EU Aust Vaznonyt, James P. Cross It’s not what we say, it’s what we do: Exploring the link between policy agenda dynamics and legislative outputs in the European Union Steffen Hurka, Maximilian Haag Policy complexity and legislative delay in the European Union Amie Kreppel, Buket Oztas The Paternity of Policy in the EU: the agenda setting power of the Commission
2605 Legislative Speech II Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Jack Blumenau Discussant: Jason Eichorst Jack Blumenau Measuring Influence from Legislative Speech Resul Umit, Katrin Auel Saboteurs in the House: The Effects of Disagree- ment on Speeches and Sentiments in Parliament Justin H. Kirkland, Jonathan B. Slapin Patterns of Rebellion in Legislative Speech in the US and the UK Verena Kunz Position Blurring as a Response to Competing Principals: Assessing Speech Complexity in the European Parliament 2606 Lobbies and Interest Groups Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Sophie Chair: David Marshall Discussant: Lawrence Rothenberg Arduino A. Tomasi Merchants of Reputation: Privatization Under Elites' Indirect Lobbying Oliver Huwyler, Stefanie Bailer Parliamentarians’ Appeal to Interest Groups: Patterns and Timing of Signalling Elin Haugsgjerd Allern, Vibeke Wøien Hansen, David Marshall, Paul Webb Competition and Interaction: Explaining Parties’ Relational Ties to Interest Groups in Mature Democracies Christopher J Ellis, Thomas Groll Persuasive Lobbying
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2615 US Party Politics Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Hans Noel Discussant: Christopher J. Williams Greg Sheen, Selina Hofstetter Fat Pope, Thin Pope - The Challenger’s Party Advantage in Open-Seat Elections Joshua Timm, Pablo Barbera, Aaron Kaufman Every picture tells a story. Analyzing image-based communication strategies during the 2016 U.S. election Jonathan D Klingler A Strategic Model of Presidential Targeted Appeals Leandro De Magalhaes On the validity of the regression discontinuity design for estimating slim-majority effects in US state legislatures 2708 Vote Choice: Ideology and Interests Fri 9:30 - 11:10 Room: Maximilian Chair: Roderick Rekker Discussant: Mary Stegmaier Sara B Hobolt, Toni Rodon When Europe becomes the deciding factor: Evidence from a conjoint experiment John Ahlquist, Mark Copelovitch, Stefanie Walter The Political Consequences of International Economic Shocks: Evidence from Poland Francisco Cantú, Pedro Riera The Impact of Electoral Systems on Ideological Voting Michael W. Sances, Hye Young You Wealth Shocks and Political Participation: Evidence from the US Fracking Boom
1204 Repression and Discrimination Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Sophie Chair: Kaissa H. Hinkkainen Discussant: Marco Giani Marco Giani Terrorism and Discrimination against Ethnic Groups: An Empirical Analysis Katharina Pfaff Why stability and size matter: the conditional effect of natural disasters on repression Richard K. Morgan Road Warriors: Security Operations & Popular Support in Insurgent Conflicts Kaisa H. Hinkkainen, Rajaa Gacem, Thomas Peak Zones of Control and Government Use of Sexual Violence: Evidence from Syria Santiago Sosa Combining Forces: The Use of Pro-Government Militias in Civil Wars 1408 Estimation and Inference Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Maximilian Chair: Nils B. Weidmann Discussant: Curtis Signorino Sonja Pohle What else left to do with Binary Time-Series Cross- Sectional data? Assessing the Performance of Bayesian Multilevel Probit Models Julian Schuessler Covariates and the Exclusion Restriction Nils B. Weidmann Uncertainty and Bias in Event Datasets Scott Cook, Betsabe Blas, Raymond Carroll, Samiran Sinha Informed Analysis of Incomplete Datasets: Bayesian Estimation of Binary Outcomes from Truncated Samples
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David Carter, Curtis Signorino, Yu Wang Good Times Bad Times: Left-Censoring in Grouped Binary Duration Data 1504 Political Institutions Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Sisi Chair: Alexandra Cirone Discussant: Thomas Gschwend Huang-Ting Yan A credible commitment to the masses: How opposition unity affects judicial independence in authoritarian regimes Aaron R. Kaufman, Jon C. Rogowski Interbranch Conflict, Unilateral Action, and the Presidency Andrea Pedrazzani, Francesco Zucchini Useless Approvals. The Italian Bicameralism and its Decisional Capacity Israel Marques II Political Networks and Competition - Elite Networks, Electoral Incentives, and Intergovernmental Transfers in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Russia 1602 Bureaucracies and Political Representation Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Habsburg Chair: Alexander Baturo Discussant: Michael Becher Michal Parízek, Matthew D. Stephen From Power to Representation: Explaining the staff composition of the United Nations, 1996-2015 Noah Buckley Verticals and Horizontals: Networks of Power under Consolidating Authoritarianism Sebastian Koehler, Patricia Calca Quotas and the Evolution of Co-Sponsorship Networks in Portugal
1608 EU Decision Making Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Fabio Franchino Discussant: Sebastian Adrian Popa Johan A. Elkink, Thomas Sattler, Sarah Parlane When one side stays home: A joint model of turnout and vote choice Florian A. Wittmann Pork-barreling going multi-level? The local allocation of regionally managed EU funds in non- federal states Raimondas Ibenskas, Jonathan Polk Congruence and Party Responsiveness in Europe: East and West Constantin Schaefer, Sebastian Adrian Popa, Hermann Schmitt, Daniela Braun The changing relationship between ideological dimensions and party positions on European integration Stefanie Bailer, Daniel Finke, Daniel Finke Testing Bargaining Models of EMU Reform 1611 Media and Politics Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Mark A. Kayser Discussant: Jordi Muñoz Mark A. Kayser, Michael Peress Accuracy and Bias in Media Coverage of the Economy Janina Beiser-McGrath Who listens? Ethnic diversity and media freedom in non-democratic states. Stephane Wolton Are biased media bad for democracy? Sabina Avdagic, Lee Savage Negativity Bias: The Impact of Framing of Immigration on Welfare State Support in Germany, Sweden and the UK
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Gianmarco Daniele, Sergio Galetta, Benny Geys Abandon Ship? Party Brands and Politicians’ Responses to a Political Scandal 2002 Advantaged and Disadvantaged Candidates Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Leopold Chair: Reto Wüest Discussant: Loes Aaldering Ana Catalano Weeks, Sparsha Saha Seeking More: Gender, Ambition, and Candidate Evaluations Jens Wäckerle The Electoral Fortune of Women Candidates in British Politics Reto Wüest, Jonas Pontusson Do Parties Dislike Working-Class Candidates? Daphne van der Pas, Loes Aaldering Gender differences in political media coverage: a Meta-Analysis Tomas Turner-Zwinkels, Elena Frech, Stefanie Bailer More women in parliament, but why?: The underrated role of replacement candidates 2101 Clientalism Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Rudolph Chair: Stephen A. Meserve Discussant: Miquel Pellicer Jeevan Baniya, Stephen A. Meserve, Daniel Pemstein, Brigitte Seim Clientelism and the Middle Class: Experimental Evidence from Nepal Stephen A. Meserve Responsiveness as a Legacy of Clientelism Michele Castiglioni Ideological camp effects on the misallocation of public resources. Evidence from a RD study in Italy.
Eva Wegner, Miquel Pellicer, Christian Tischmeyer, Markus Bayer Clientelism from the Client‘s Perspective: A Framework Based on a Systematic Review of Ethnographic Literature Kristen Kao, Ellen Lust Clientelism and Local Ties 2707 Voter Choice and Issue Voting Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Till Weber Discussant: Christian Breunig Till Weber Negative Voting and Party Polarization Ingrid Mauerer Measuring Voters' Party-Issue Linkages in Parliamentary Elections Emmy Lindstam Signalling Issue Salience: Explaining Niche Party Support in Second-Order Elections Roderik Rekker The role of young voters in parties’ electoral gains Tom D O'Grady Investigating Age Cleavages across European Countries, Time and Issues with a Big Data Approach 2802 Promoting Peace and Democracy Fri 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Anita R. Gohdes Discussant: Sara Polo Elif Erisen, Ekrem Karakoc How Do Foreign Policies Affect Public Opinion In Other Countries? Shared Identities and Perceptions of Foreign Powers Anita R. Gohdes The New Media Bias: How does the Internet change what we learn about conflicts?
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Marlene Mauk Measuring citizen support for fundamentally different political regimes Paul Gronke, Lonna Atkeson, Todd Donovan Measuring Election Integrity Around the Globe: Are We Confident in Voter Confidence Measures? Johannes Bubeck, Kai Jäger, Nikolay Marinov, Ashrakat Elshehawy, and Federico Nanni Process or Candidate: U.S. Pressure for Democracy Promotion Abroad 1109 Political Response to Economic Shocks Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Julia Gray Discussant: Anthony M. Bertelli Julian Limberg Of Banks and Budgets: Do Financial Crises Lead to Fiscal Innovations? Julia Gray Reputations, Revisited: Credible Commitments in the Post-Financial Crisis Era Mark Copelovitch, Rikhil R. Bhavnani The Political Impact of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from India's 2016 Demonetization Jonas B. Bunte, Brandon Kinne Credit Rationing and Lending Networks Henning Finseraas, Bjørn Høyland, Martin G. Søyland Do Members of Parliament Respond to Local Economic Shocks? 1205 The Politics of Protest Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Habsburg Chair: Zachary C. Steinert-Threlkeld Discussant: Sebastian Ziaja Zachary C. Steinert-Threlkeld, Shane Steinert- Threlkeld A Network Model of Protest Participation
H. Christoph Steinhardt, Christian Göbel An Information Revolution? Assessing Protest Event Data from China Haifeng Huang Propaganda and Protest Marina G. Petrova Water or Gasoline? Civil Society in Contentious Scenarios Alfonso Sanchez, Elizabeth Juhasz Natural disaster-induced IDPs and conflict in Africa 1301 Inequality and Redistribution 1 Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Maximilian Chair: Bastian Becker Discussant: Johannes Lindvall Jonas Markgraf, Guillermo Rosas, Sebastian Lavezzolo Borrowing Welfare: Varying Effects of Credit Access on Preferences for Redistribution in Western Europe Magnus B. Rasmussen, Carl Henrik Knutsen More than the urban working class? A Social Coalition Theory of Redistribution Bastian Becker Mind the Income Gaps? Experimental Evidence of Information's Lasting Effect on Redistributive Preferences Brian M. Burgoon, Sam van Noort The Political Effects of Dynamic and Positional Deprivation and Inequality Anselm Rink, Hanno Hilbig Inheritance and Inequality 1402 Information and Data Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Sophie Chair: Moritz Marbach Discussant: Lonna Atkeson Moritz Marbach Unreported - On Imputing UNHCR Data
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Christian Schnaudt Engaged and duty-based citizenship in a comparative perspective: Good citizens, bad researchers, dubious scales? Juraj Medzihorsky Generalized Hierarchical Aldrich-McKelvey Scaling Altaf Ali Forecasting Civil Conflict: A Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model Approach Using Computer-Coded Event Data Aina Gallego, Alba Huidobro, Javier Beltrán Sexism against female politicians on Twitter: A machine learning approach 1601 Political Careers Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Sisi Chair: Despina Alexiadou Discussant: Conor Little Roland Kappe, Christian Schuster Shaping Policy Long After Exit from Office: The Lasting Effect of Party Rule on the Political Ideology of Bureaucrats Conor Little Parties, institutions, and ministerial stability in government Elena Frech, Niels Goet, Simon Hug Shirking and Slacking in Parliament Despina Alexiadou, Zachary Greene The party in government and the party on the ground Simon Weschle Cash for Access? The Outside Earnings of Politicians 2303 EU: Institutions and Bargaining Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Sara Hagemann Discussant: Sven-Oliver Proksch Marta Migliorati EU regulatory agencies: from creation to utilisation
Sven-Oliver Proksch, Christopher Wratil The Political Rhetoric of Intergovernmental Bargaining: Evidence from the European Union Sara Hagemann Odd one out? The UK governments’ voting records in the EU Council Monika Mühlböck National governments’ internal quarrels at the EU level. Who defines a member state’s position in the Council? Philipp Broniecki Strategic Selection of Key Negotiators in Informal Interinstitutional Negotiations in the European Union 2501 Information and Attitudes Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Leopold Chair: David Hendry Discussant: Megan MacDuffee Metzger Jason Roy, Shane Singh, Patrick Fournier The Effect of Opinion Polls on Political Information Seeking Davide Morisi Biased but moderate voters. How information depolarizes political attitudes Mirya R. Holman, J, Celeste Lay Gender, Uncertainty, and Misperceptions Dean Lacy Does Answering Survey Questions Change How People Think About Political Issues? A Test of Whether Political Attitudes Are Pre-Existing or Constructed Seonghui Lee, Akitaka Matsuo, David Hendry Paths to false beliefs: Political ignorance, partisan motivation, and conspiracy mentality
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2612 Party Strategies Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Rudolph Chair: Diana Burlacu Discussant: Martin Ejnar Hansen Tarik Abou-Chadi, Daniel Bischof, Markus Wagner When Do Parties Risk Politicizing New Issues? How the Prospect of Losing Power Affects Issue Entrepreneurship Katharina Heugl, Matthias Kaltenegger, Wolfgang C. Müller Rewards and Appeasement: Explaining Patterns of Party Responsiveness towards Activist Preferences Noam Lupu, Maayan Mor Does the Change in the Social Backgrounds of MPs Help to Explain the Policy Positions of Social Democratic Parties? James R. Hollyer, Marko Klasnja, Rocio Titiunik Parties as Disciplinarians: The Electoral Strategies of Centrist Parties Gijs Schumacher, Patrik Ohberg Experimental Evidence of Loss Aversion Among Swedish Politicians 2710 Voters and Policy Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Marc Guinjoan Discussant: Johan Elkink Christian Breunig, Nathalie Giger, Miriam Hänni, Denise Traber Governments’ unequal attentiveness to the priorities of rich and poor Gizem Arikan Public Concern with Income Inequality: An Experimental Investigation Robert A. Huber, Lukas P. Fesenfeld, Thomas Bernauer Populism and Support for Climate Policies. Evidence from a Survey Experiment.
Markus Tepe, Christine Prokop, Michael Jankowski Who wants a representative bureaucracy? Evidence from a conjoint experiment conducted among citizens and future bureaucrats Aidan Regan, Liam Kneafsey Competitive Nationalism(s) and European Integration: Explaining Popular Support for Corporate Tax Avoidance Experimental Evidence from Ireland 2905 Turnout Fri 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Mariken van der Velden Discussant: Sebastian Koehler Pierre F. Landry, Sebastian Nickel Lost in Aggregation--Recasting neighborhood effects on political participation Andreas Kotsadam, Henning Finseraas, Javier Polavieja Ancestry Culture and Voter Turnout in Two Generations Florian Foos, Peter John, Christian Müller Keeping up with the Joneses? Causal evidence on neighbourhood effects from a partisan GOTV experiment Ria Ivandic Voting for the American Dream? The Relationship between Social Mobility and Unequal Political Participation Ruth Dassonneville, Filip Kostelka The Gender Gap in Voter Turnout: A Longitudinal Analysis of European Parliament Elections
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1005 Space and Time in Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Sophie Chair: Vera E. Troeger Discussant: Scott Cook Laron K Williams A Wrinkle in Time: Partial Observability of Data in the Context of Temporal and Spatial Dependence Matthew Blackwell, Adam Glynn How to Make Causal Inferences with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data under Selection on Observables (and some extensions) Vincent Hopkins, Andrew Phillips, Mark Pickup, Guy Whitten Learning from Simulations: How Do We Know What We Know? Timm Betz, Scott Cook, Florian Hollenbach Sensitivity to Spatial Dependence Mark Pickup, Vera E. Troeger Specifying Dynamic Processes in Panel Data 1202 International Security Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Kerim Can Kavakli Discussant: Kevin Green Jonas J. Driedger “Not in my backyard!” – Do powerful states forcefully pursue spheres of influence in their neighborhood? Fang-Yi Chiou, Simon Hug, Bjorn Hoyland Sponsoring resolutions on civil wars in the UNSC Paul W. Thurner, Oliver Pamp Arms Races and Multilateral Security: A New Empirical Design Kerim Can Kavakli, Emre Hatipoglu Do Diplomats Matter for International Conflict? Evidence from US Foreign Relations Between 1779- 2010
Alexander Baturo, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Mikhaylov The US-Soviet/Russian Rivalry in the General Debate of the United Nations 1211 Protest and Violence Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Habsburg Chair: Charlotte Fiedler Discussant: Nina von Uexkull Charlotte Fiedler The effects of constitution-writing processes on post-conflict peace Katerina I. Tertytchnaya Protests and defections under electoral autocracies Dumitru Ciocan Framing Protests: Limits and Opportunities for Contested Authoritarian Regimes Ravi Bhavnani, Karsten Donnay, Leo Arriola, Nils Lewis Urban Topography and Mass Protest 1302 Inequality and Redistribution 2 Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Sisi Chair: Pablo Beramendi Discussant: Jonas Markgraf Thomas J. Hayes, Christopher Guay Support for Reducing Inequality: Citizen Attitudes vs. Public Action Matthew Loveless, Chiara Binelli ‘Getting it Right’: Perceptions of Income Inequality in the United States and the United Kingdom Nathalie Giger, Davy-Kim Lascombes Growing income inequality, growing legitimacy: A longitudinal approach to perceptions of inequality Wouter Schakel, Brian M. Burgoon Policy Responsiveness and Economic Inequality in Advanced Democracies Pablo Beramendi, Daniel Stegmueller The Political Foundations of Market Inequalities
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1401 Dealing with Data Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Maximilian Chair: Pablo Barbera Discussant: Dean Lacy Nicole Rae Baerg, Baekkwan Park Uncovering Ambiguity and Blame Avoidance Strategies using Political Textual Data Kyle L. Marquardt, Daniel Pemstein Expert cognitive processes and the recovery of latent values Garret Binding, Thomas Willi A Comparison of Parametric and Non-Parametric Imputation Techniques Inken von Borzyskowski, Patrick M. Kuhn Machine vs. Hand: Geocoding sub-Saharan African Survey Data Tomas Turner-Zwinkels A Protocol for the Fast and Reliable Triangulation of Large-scale Political Science Data 1615 Party Politics: Internal Perspectives Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Orit Kedar Discussant: Elena Frech Thomas Daeubler The personalization of electoral rules: does it empower voters or merely facilitate policy shirking? Marcela Ibáñez de Foerster, Kai Jäger Unfolding the FARC: The Microfoundation of Rebel- To-Party Transformation in a Polarizing Environment Aiko Wagner, Werner Krause Taking electoral competition where it belongs: Comparing individual-level and election-level measures of political competition Cynthia M.C. van Vonno, Tom Louwerse Hard Work Pays Off? Candidate Selection & Parliamentary Activity
Gisela Sin, David J. Hendry Joining Ideological Caucuses in the U.S. Congress: A Survival Strategy 2003 Candidate and Incumbent Characteristics Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Leopold Chair: Kaare W. Strøm Discussant: Simon Weschle Felix Hartmann Public Transfers and Incumbent Voting: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines Kuniaki Nemoto A Comparative Study of Contamination Effects in Mixed-member Systems Nelson A. Ruiz Power of Money. The Consequences of Electing a Donor-funded Politician Valentin Schröder, Philip Manow Picking from Pools of Different Sizes: Candidate Selection within Large and Small Parties Shane Martin, Charles McClean, Kaare W. Strøm Legislative Organization and Legislative Incumbency 2302 EU Institutions Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Rudolph Chair: Sara B. Hobolt Discussant: Filip Kostelka Christian Rauh Legislative agenda-setting by individual Directorates-General of the European Commission 1994-2016: A text similarity approach Anastasia Ershova Between Scylla and Charybdis: Delegation and Discretion choices in the European Union Roman Senninger, Jens Blom-Hansen Meet the Critics - Using Text Analysis to Understand Quality Checks of Commission Proposals
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Sara B. Hobolt, Christopher Wratil Contestation and Responsiveness in EU Council Deliberations 2604 Legislative Speech I Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Resul Umit Discussant: Jonathan B. Slapin Hiroki Kubo, Akitaka Matsuo Explaining Legislators’ Ideological Inconsistencies Between Campaign Rhetoric and Legislative Speech Jason Eichorst Institutional Obstacles to Viable Competition: (in)Distinct Informational Cues in Bolivian Legislative Speech Markus Baumann, Hanna Bäck, Royce Carroll Divided Parliaments? Assessing Rhetorical Polarization in the Swedish Riksdag and the Dutch Tweede Kamer Constantine Boussalis, Travis G. Coan, Amy McKay Estimating the influence of conservative think tanks on environmental speechmaking in the U.S. Congress Mariken van der Velden Talk is Cheap? The Importance of Intra-Party Communication for Coalition Formation 2611 Party Position-taking Fri 15:30 - 17:25 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Francesc Amat Discussant: Scott Abramson Francesc Amat, Hector Galindo Inequality, Immigration and Party Strategies Heiko Giebler Talking them down: negative campaigning and its effects from an electoral candidate’s perspective Chit Basu, Zachary Greene Signs of Change? Salience Shocks, Voter Priorities and Party Strategy
Jelle Koedam United in Diversity? Explaining Left-Right Diversity in the Regionalist Party Family Paul Beckmann, Leonce Röth Polarization or Convergence? The Economy's Differential Effect on Political Parties 1003 Game Theoretic Models of War and Peace Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Milan Svolik Discussant: Scott Tyson Colin Krainin, Kristopher W. Ramsay, Bella Wang Financing Peace: Commitment Problems with Sovereign Debt Raul Caruso, Jun Xiang War, Stalemate, and Military Spending Kevin Cope, James D. Morrow A Theory of Treatymaking Andreas Foroe Tollefsen, Scott Gates Changes in Control and Civilian Victimization in the Syrian Civil War 1411 Structural Breaks as Discontinuity Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Sophie Chair: Toni Rodon Discussant: Salomo Hirvonen Jordi Muñoz, Enrique Hernandez, Albert Falcó- Gimeno Causal Identification Based on Unexpected Events during Survey Fieldwork: Promise and Pitfalls Marc Guinjoan, Toni Rodon, Pau Vall-Prat What do you do or whom do you do it with? Incumbency advantage, government status and public policies Leandro De Magalhaes, Salomo Hirvonen Multi-Office Incumbency Advantage
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1604 Attitudes to Brexit Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Maximilian Chair: Roland Kappe Discussant: Timothy Hellwig Richard Whitaker, Sofia Vasilopoulou, Katjana Gattermann A representative European Parliament? MEPs and the representation of citizens’ preferences Stefanie Walter, Zoltan Fazekas Populism through references to the people: EU citizens in the news media during Brexit Feargal Cochrane, Neophytos Loizides, Edward Morgan-Jones, Laura Sudulich How does the Regulation of Borders Shape Public Support for Peace Settlements? Evidence from a Conjoint Survey Experiment in Post-Brexit Northern Ireland. Toni Rodon, Sara Hobolt Win-win or win-lose? Losers’ satisfaction with democracy after the Brexit referendum Miriam Sorace A tale of two peoples: mapping cognitive bias in the UK electorate post Brexit 2103 Government Transparency Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Habsburg Chair: Rabia Malik Discussant: Cristina Bodea Michael E. Shepherd, Hye Young You Legislative Capture? Career Concerns, Revolving Doors, and Policy Biases Mária uffová Exploring governments’ motivations for increasing transparency through open data publication Rabia Malik Transparency, Elections, and Pakistani Politicians' Tax Compliance Tinghua Yu Intra-elite Conflict and Information Disclosure
2608 New Parties Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Sisi Chair: Joost van Spanje Discussant: Denis Cohen Joost van Spanje, Rachid Azrout Media Coverage of New Political Parties: A Content Analysis of Dutch Newspapers, 1947-2017 Martin Ejnar Hansen Friendly Merger or Hostile Takeover? Party Mergers under Ideological Differences Rubén Ruiz-Rufino, Lee Savage Globalisation and support for social-democracy 2610 Party Ideologies Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Philipp Harfst Discussant: Gijs Schumacher Roni Lehrer, Nick Lin Everything to Everyone? Not When You Are Internally Divided Sven Kosanke, Philipp Harfst, Niels Düpont Party Positions, Electoral Systems, and Income Inequality Theresa Gessler, Sophia Hunger The logic of issue-specific left-right placements: Parties’ position shifting in election campaigns in five European countries from 2000 to 2017 Anke Tresch, Simon Stückelberger The two faces of issue ownership in party competition
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2614 Representation Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Leopold Chair: Chitralekha Basu Discussant: Mathias Tromborg Chitralekha Basu, Carles Boix, Paulo Serôdio Electoral Representation in a Democratizing Era: Evidence from the Victorian House of Commons Stephen D. Ansolabehere, Shiro Kuriwaki Issue Accountability and Representation Failure in the U.S. Congress Christian Breunig, Miriam Haenni, Emiliano Grossman Responsiveness and Democratic Accountability: Experimental Evidence from a Mixed-Member Proportional System Reto Wüest, Jonas Pontusson The Representation of Social Classes in European Parliaments 2706 Strategic Voters and Strategic Candidates Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Rudolph Chair: Andrew Eggers Discussant: Jason Roy Martin Elff Strategic Voting and Ticket-Splitting in Mixed Electoral Systems: A Finite-Mixture Approach Applied to the Case of Germany Alejandro Ecker, Endre Borbáth The effect of electoral coordination on voting behavior Laurent Bouton, Benjamin G. Ogden Strategic Candidates with Ethical Voters Jack Blumenau, Andrew C Eggers, Nick Vivyan Does better polling lead to better strategic voting? Corinna Kroeber and Sarah Dingler Does ticket splitting empower white, old, rich men? Exploring the individual-level determinants of strategic voting
2709 Voter Decision-making Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Julia Schulte-Cloos Discussant: Holger Döring Mary Stegmaier, Lukas Linek, Kamil Marcinkiewicz Political Sophistication and Preference Vote Decisions in Open-List PR Systems Thomas Willi Choice Sets - A two-staged sequential decision making process for voting Julia Schulte-Cloos A disintegrative spill-over? The effect of EP direct elections on national voting behaviour Emanuel Emil Coman Are Local Elections Truly Second Order? Rosalind Shorrocks The Varying Electoral Gender Gap in Cross-National Comparison: Bringing Politics Back In 2904 The Impact of Refugee Settlement Fri 17:35 - 19:30 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Ilona Lahdelma Discussant: Maria Jose Hierro Ilona Lahdelma Asylum seekers and political representation: the case of Finland Bernt Bratsberg, Jeremy Ferwerda, Henning Finseraas, Andreas Kotsadam Refugee Settlement and Immigrants’ Political Integration Lukas Rudolph, Markus Wagner Refugee inflow and individual-level attitudes on asylum seekers – combining aggregate and survey data for a test of the contact hypothesis Christian Stecker Refugees Welcome? The presence of refugees and the electoral success of the right-wing populist AfD in Germany
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Saturday June 23 1105 IMF: What does it stand for? Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Habsburg Chair: Kevin A. Clarke Discussant: Michael Breen Saliha Metinsoy When does the IMF assign labour conditions? Exchange Rate Regimes, Fiscal Targets, and the IMF as an Independent Agent Michael Breen Decoding the Language of the IMF Surveillance Merih Angin, Albana Shehaj, Adrian J. Shin IMF: International Migration Fund Kevin A. Clarke, Randall S. Stone The Unobserved IMF Mascha Rauschenbach, Katrin Paula Picking from the Menu of Manipulation: How International Monitoring Affects Political Business Cycles and Pre-Electoral Violence 1111 The Logics of Social Policy Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Sisi Chair: Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik Discussant: Carl Henrik Knutsen Céline Colombo, Silja Häusermann, Thomas Kurer, Denise Traber Media and elite influence on public opinion: political attitudes during a direct-democratic referendum on pension reform Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik Female political representation and social policy: From correlation to causation Robert Grafstein After-Tax Income and Social Insurance: Voting Based on Risk and Return Raluca L. Pahontu Employed in Conflict: Explaining Social Policy Preferences of a Tripartite Labour Market
Diana Burlacu, Konstantin Vössing Beyond blame avoidance: elite explanations for social policy reform and their effects on public opinion 1304 Social Policy Preferences Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Michele Fenzl Discussant: Alexander Carl Pacek Jack Vowles, Timothy Hellwig, Yesola Kweon Revising the Distributional Bargain? Policy Preferences in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Sven Hillen, Nils D. Steiner How do Left-Authoritarian Voters Decide? Issue Salience, Position Misperception and Left-Right Identification Michele Fenzl Income inequality and Union Density in Comparative Perspective: The Watchdog That Stopped Barking Alexander Carl Pacek, Benjamin Radcliff, Mark D Brockway Public Employment and Human Well-Being: A Cross-National Analysis 1407 Methods for Analyzing Text Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Sophie Chair: Julian Bernauer Discussant: Gary Hollibaugh Christian Arnold How to Classify Short Text Andrew Peterson Security, Identity, and Liberty: Parliamentary Speeches in an Age of Terrorism
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Raimondas Ibenskas, Adriana Bunea Estimating interest groups’ preferences in the European Union using Twitter data Brice D. L. Acree, Adam Lauretig, Caleb Pomeroy Beyond Bag-of-Words: Advances in How We Represent Text as Data Julian Bernauer Measuring Populism: Quantitative Text Analysis Across Languages, Contexts and Sources 1606 The Nature of Democracy Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Leopold Chair: Muhammet A. Bas Discussant: Simon Otjes Muhammet A. Bas, Randall Stone Probabilistic Democracy Sascha Riaz Regime convergence through international linkage? A spatial panel model of democratic and autocratic diffusion 1827-2014. Patrick Emmenegger, Lucas Leemann, André Walter Income Tax, indirect Revenue, and Political Institutions Martin Elff, Sebastian Ziaja Method factors in democracy indicators David Sylvan, Ashley Thornton, Juliette Ganne, Laura Schenker Do Democracies Become Garrison States? Cross- national Trends 2004 Candidate Ties and Traits Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Maximilian Chair: Simon Munzert Discussant: Marius Radean S. Erdem Aytaç, Ali Çarkolu, Ezgi Elçi, Sedef Turper Determinants of Preference for Populist Politicians: Evidence from Turkey
Rasmus T Pedersen, Jens O Dahlgaard, Manuele Citi Inequality in Politicians - Inequality in Policies? Simon Munzert Measuring the Significance of Political Elites Paul C. Bauer, Julia Schulte-Cloos Local heros? The effect of candidates’ local ties on electoral success Dominik Duell, Jonathan Slapin Who Likes Rebels? Representation and the Electoral Success of Parliamentary Mavericks 2204 Public Opinion, Extremism and Conflict Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Rudolph Chair: Pia Raffler Discussant: Alexander Kuo David Siroky, Lenka Bustikova Explaining Civilian Support for Insurgency: Evidence from Survey Experiments in Dagestan Ludovico Alcorta, Haley Swedlund, Jeroen Smits Does perception match reality in the buildup to ethnic conflict? Melina Platas Izama, Pia Raffler The Limits of Partisanship: How Information Can Encourage Crossing Party Lines Atsushi Tago, Yuki Asaba, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Kyu Hahn 38 Seconds above the 38th Parallel: How US military made video clip can promote alignment despite antagonism between Japan and Korea Kunaal Sharma Clerical Persuasion and Religious Extremism: An Experiment Among Sunni and Shia Muslims in India
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2206 Public Sentiments toward the EU Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Thomas König Discussant: Amie Kreppel Dominik Schraff, Jana Lipps Estimating regional preferences towards European integration Matthew Loveless Politicizing Perceptions: The Power of Parties, Elites, and Mass Media in Shaping Citizens’ Support for the European Union Besir Ceka Mind the Gap: The Different Levels of Trust in EU and National Institutions Sander Kunst, Herman van de Werfhorst, Theresa Kuhn, Beate Volker The relationship between education and Euroscepticism re-examined: An instrumental variable design using compulsory schooling reforms across Europe Thomas König, Hyeonho Hahm, David Hilpert Institutional Design and Public Attitudes Towards EU Decision Making 2505 Media, Campaigns and Public Opinion Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Constantine Boussalis Discussant: Richard A. Johnson Andreas C. Goldberg, Carolin Ischen Be there or be square – The impact of participation and performance in TV debates and corresponding media coverage on voting behaviour Marta Fraile, Gema Garcia-Albacete, Monica Ferrin Who learns in electoral campaigns? A panel study of the role of television and soft news in decreasing the typical gaps in knowledge Erik de Vries Europeanization: investigating longitudinal developments in EU-related news coverage
Marco Gambaro, Valentino Larcinese, Riccardo Puglisi, James M Snyder Is Soft News a Turn-Off ? Evidence from Italian TV News Viewership Simon Richter, Thorsten Faas Televised Debates, Second Screens, Filter Bubbles: Evidence from German Lab and Survey Experiments 2704 Populism and the Vote Sat 9:15 - 11:10 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Sergi Pardos-Prado Discussant: Jae-Jae Spoon Kamil Marcinkiewicz Who votes for the right-wing populist parties? A comparative analysis of the role of religiosity Julian M. Hoerner, Alexander Jaax, Toni Rodon The long-term impact of the location of concentration camps on radical right voting in Germany Fabian G. Neuner, Christopher Wratil When Demand Meets Supply: Populist Position- vs Valence-Issues Sergi Pardos-Prado The better, the worse? The impact of macro- economic performance on populist anti-immigrant success 1006 Formal Models of Autocratic Government Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Maximilian Chair: Tinghua Yu Discussant: Stephane Wolton Milan Svolik When Polarization Trumps Civic Virtue: Partisan Conflict and the Subversion of Democracy by Incumbents Arturas Rozenas and Zhaotian Luo Patterns of Autocracy: Institutions, Governance, and Performance
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Scott A Tyson Coordination and Government Effectiveness Georgy Egorov, Konstantin Sonin Elections in Nondemocracies Jack Paine Preventive Repression and Authoritarian Regime Dynamics 1101 The Politics of International Investment Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Habsburg Chair: Jonas B. Bunte Discussant: Timm Betz Jonas B. Bunte Bilateral Loans and Private FDI Timm Betz, Amy Pond, Weiwen Yin Investment Protection and Subsidiary Creation James R. Hollyer, B. Peter Rosendorff, James Raymond Vreeland Government Transparency and International Investment Morr Link, Yoram Haftel Islamic Law States and the Legalization of International Investment Agreements Nathan Miller, Amy Pond, Dennis P. Quinn When Does FDI Liberalization Limit Growth? 1112 Austerity and Fiscal Policy Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Sisi Chair: Pau Vall-Prat Discussant: Mark Copelovitch Evelyne Hübscher, Thomas Sattler, Markus Wagner Voter responses to fiscal austerity Timothy Hicks, Lucy Barnes Household Analogies and Austerity Attitudes
Pau Vall-Prat The Politics of Decentralization in Fiscal Rules Compliance. (Dis)Obeying Fiscal Rules in Spanish Regions Markus Tepe, Maximilian Lutz Redistribution by lot. Evidence from a real-effort experiment Vytautas Kuokstis Improving theories of currency crises: Extracting lessons from the deviant Baltic case 1209 After the Civil War Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Egor Lazarev Discussant: Ludovico Alcorta Jessica Di Salvatore, Sara Polo, Andrea Ruggeri Do UN Peace Operations lead to more terrorism? Natascha S. Neudorfer, Stefan Wolff When words are (not) enough: How and why do territorial self-governance arrangements in peace agreements foster enduring peace after a conflict? Jonathan Mellon, Daniel Evans Political Networks and Competition: Social, Political and Ethnic Predictors of Purging and Promotion in Post-Coup Zimbabwe Egor Lazarev Rebel-Bureaucrats: How Conflict Affects State Capacity and the Rule of Law Ravinder Bhavnani, Karsten Donnay, David Backer, Mirko Reul Modeling the Subnational Risk of Acute Malnutrition in Conflict-Affected Settings
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1409 Polls and other Surveys Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Sophie Chair: Lucas Leemann Discussant: Tomoko Matsumoto Marc Debus, Marius Sältzer Polling Panic, Twitch at Tweets – Immediate Responses by Members of Parliament to Opinion Polls Lucas Leemann, Richard Traunmüller Polls, Uncertainty, and Perceived Uncertainty of Polls Heiko Giebler, Magdalena Hirsch, Benjamin Schürmann, Susanne Veit The people and the heartland in a dangerous world: The psychological underpinnings of populists’ attitudes beyond anti-elitism and citizens’ sovereignty Thomas Brambor, Agustín Goenaga, Johannes Lindvall, Jan Teorell The Lay of the Land: Information Capacity and the Modern State Sebastian Juhl, David Hilpert Wheeling and Dealing Behind Closed Doors. Estimating the Causal Effect of Transparency on Policy Evaluations 1613 The Rise of Populism Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Leopold Chair: David Siroky Discussant: Adrian Nyhuis Gerald Schneider, Nadine Segadlo Sixteen Shades of Germany: The Discrimination of Asylum Seekers in the Länder, 2008-2016 Guido Ropers Left behind? Globalization losers, right-wing populism, and electoral effects of regional compensation policies Jude Hays, Jae-Jae Spoon Globalization, Economic Hardship and Support for Populist Parties in Europe
Anja Neundorf, Sergi Pardos Authoritarian Legacies and Populist Party Emergence in new Democracies Marc Helbling, Sebastian Jungkunz Social Divides in the Age of Globalization 2005 Candidates and Incumbents Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Rudolph Chair: Mogens K. Justesen Discussant: Tom Louwerse Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Rasmus Tue Pedersen, Lene Holm Pedersen Do remunerations for high public office attract better politicians? Michael Jankowski, Dominic Ponattu, Maciej A. Gorecki Regression Discontinuity Designs, Proportional Representation, and the Incumbency Advantage Sarah C. Dingler Who is in the front seat – Determining the effect of candidate selection on viable candidacy Benoit S Y Crutzen, Nicolas Sahuguet, Hideo Konishi How should parties rank their candidates under closed-list proportional representation? Dominik Hangartner, Salomo Hirvonen, Leandro De Magalhes, Janne Tukiainen, Nelson A. Ruiz Incumbency Advantage in Open versus Closed List: Within Country Evidence from Colombia 2504 Media Effects Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Franz Stephan Chair: Katjana Gattermann Discussant: Valentino Larcinese Alexandra Siegel #No2Sectarianism: Reducing Sectarian Hate Speech Online and in the Field
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Florian Foos, Daniel Bischof When the Sun stopped shining: Identifying the effects of right-wing media consumption on public opinion towards EU-integration Katjana Gattermann Media personalization effects in a low-information environment: The case of the European Union Max Schaub, Davide Morisi Voter mobilization in the echo chamber. How internet use fosters support for populist parties Loes Aaldering, Sophie Lecheler Trick of the traits. An experimental study on the impact of trait ownership on mediated leader effects 2702 Economic Voting Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Marie Antoinette Chair: Raymond Duch Discussant: Nils Steiner Marina Costa Lobo, Roberto Pannico The consequences of politicisation of the EU in the media for voting behaviour, 2002-2017 S. Erdem Aytaç Relative Economic Performance and Incumbent Competence: Survey Experiments in Turkey and the U.K. Carlos Sanz, Albert Solé-Ollé, Pilar Sorribas Economic crises and political discontent. Evidence from the Spanish housing bust Patrick Le Bihan, Raymond Duch, Dimitri Landa Multiple policy fields and the economic vote Michael Lewis-Beck, Martin Okolikj, Stephen Quinlan Partisanship, the Crisis, and Economic Voting: A macro perspective on the endogeneity problem
2711 Policy and Accountability Sat 11:20 - 13:15 Room: Maria Theresia Chair: Bonnie A. Weir Discussant: Daniel Pemstein Bonnie A. Weir, Milan W. Svolik The Trap of Ethnic Politics Michael Becher, Sylvain Brouard Do Partisan Ends Justify the Procedural Means? How Voters Evaluate the Legislative Performance of Executives William Howell, Stefan Krasa, Mattias Polborn Political Conflict over Time Tanushree Goyal Do roads bring votes? Accountability and attribution in Rural India Su-Hyun Lee The Electoral Effects of Chinese Import Competition in the United States 1104 Politics after the Economic Crisis Sat 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Maximilian Chair: Dennis Quinn Discussant: Julian Limberg Friederike L Kelle, Hakan Günaydin Affording Independence? Economic Crises and Support for Regionalist Parties in Europe Pirmin Bundi, Markus Freitag Economic Crisis and Social Capital in Europe Ignacio Jurado, Rosa Navarrete Economic crises, ideology and satisfaction with democracy Xavier Fernández-i-Marín, Steffen Hurka, Christoph Knill, Yves Steinebach The Hidden Faces of Crises: Displacement Effects and Policy Changes in Times of Economic Hardship Giulio Lisi The Political Economy of Central Bank Transparency
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1113 The Politics of International Economics Sat 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Habsburg Chair: Adrian J. Shin Discussant: Merih Angin Nils D. Steiner, Philipp Harms The Effect of Import Competition on Nationalist and Populist Attitudes: Evidence from Panel Data Tobias Rommel Societal Groups and Foreign Direct Investment Liberalization in Autocratic Regimes Jose Fernandez-Albertos Political regimes and universal policy instruments: the case of exchange-rate policy Benjamin Cormier, Mark S. Manger Country ownership? How World Bank lending conditions change over time Yoram Haftel, Soo Yeon Kim, Lotem Bassan Emerging Market Economies and the Global Investment Regime: The Role of Regime Type and Investment Flows 1203 Democratization Sat 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Sisi Chair: Francesco Giovannoni Discussant: Valentin Schröder Leandro De Magalhaes, Francesco Giovannoni Wars and the Rise of Parliaments Haakon Gjerløw, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Tore Wig, Matthew C. Wilson Stairways to Denmark: Does the sequence of state- building and democratization matter for economic development? Albana Shehaj Killing Them With Kindness: The Influence of Parties' Distributive Strategies on Voters' Tolerance of Political Graft
1206 Resources and Conflict Sat 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Franz Joseph Chair: Paul Thurner Discussant: Jason S Davis Mario Krauser We strike to stay: Rebel taxation of artisanal mines and violent strategies Jonathan C. Pinckney Is Dutch Disease Fatal to Nonviolent Resistance? A Time-Series Analysis of Oil and Gas Rents and the Onset of Strategic Nonviolent Action Baekkwan Park, Kevin Greene, Michael P. Colaresi Human Rights Is (Increasingly) Plural: Tracking the Generality and Specificity of What is Judged in Human Rights Reports Over Time Anar Ahmadov Mapping the Resource Curse: Production Geography, Governance, and Development in Oil- Rich Countries 1503 Coalition Formation Sat 13:25 - 15:20 Room: Leopold Chair: Carolina Plescia Discussant: Georg Vanberg Shaun Bowler, Gail McElroy, Stefan Müller Expectation of coalition formation in multi-party settings: when do voters get it right? Heike Klüver, Inaki Sagarzazu United we talk divided we stand: Issue positions in political communications of coalition parties Lanny W. Martin, Georg Vanberg Coalition Bargaining Before an Audience Heike Klüver, Hanna Bäck Explaining the outcome of coalition negotiations: Policy and office payoffs in coalition governments Mark A. Kayser, Matthias Orlowski, Jochen Rehmert Coalition Inclusion Probabilities: A Dynamic Measure of Party Leverage
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1607 The Nature of European Integration Sat 13:25 - 15:20 Room: