europe from the atlantic to the black sea: where and how does iceland fit in? william wallace...
TRANSCRIPT
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Europe from the Atlantic to the Black Sea: where and how does
Iceland fit in?
William WallaceHaskoli Islands 12 June 2009
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What is Europe, where is Europe?
EU and NATO as increasingly defining ‘Europe’: pressures from weaker states on eastern and southern borders for inclusion
A continent without clear borders: eastern and southern borderlands
Europe in a globalised world: 12% of world population, 25% of world production, 40 states out of 192 UN members
Europe as a ‘declining’ region or as a satisfied and secure region? The ‘rise’, or recovery, of Asia
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Transformation of ‘Europe’ since 1989
(re-)emergence of states from former Soviet bloc: 7 Warsaw Pact states plus Yugoslavia & Albania have become 22-23
Shift eastwards, still under way Expansion of NATO and EU – where should
these stop? EU from 12 to 27; and on to 35 and more? Gas and oil dependence, on east and south Migration pressures, from east and south
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Europe as a dynamic region: illusions of stability, the pace of
change The Europe of our grandparents: half-buried memories
and conflicts How stable are current borders? How permanent are
some of Europe’s weaker states? Moldova, Bosnia, Macedonia – Belarus, Ukraine?
Transformation of Europe’s economy: industry moving east, technology and services in the West
Popular resistance to immigration; reality of urban change over last century
Transformation of European society over past generation
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What sort of Europe will Iceland prefer?
Inputs and outputs: what you get out of the EU, but also what you put in
Economic autonomy or integration: the shifting balance Dilemmas for small states: how to play the game, and on
how many tables at once Do small states benefit from stronger multilateral
institutions? Fault lines and potential coalitions: large state and small,
north and south, west and east North sea interests, Mediterranean and Black Sea
interests: how far east will Icelandic interests stretch?
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The enlargement agenda
The Western Balkans: weak states, needing external anchors
Turkey: NATO member, EU aspiration as the external anchor for domestic reform
The new Zwischenlände: Ukraine, Moldova, (Belarus), Georgia, Armenia (Azerbaijan). The ‘Eastern Partnership’: empty gesture or strategic move?
The EEA Associates? Norway, Iceland, Switzerland The Mediterranean Union. Morocco as a Muslim
partner? Israel as a Western state? Is there an ‘end point’ to enlargement? Council of
Europe, OSCE…
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What is NATO now for?
Defence of the ‘North Atlantic area’? European region as largely secure and peaceful: NATO, EU and Western Balkans. But Russia: partner or threat?
Security around the frontiers of Europe? Eastern enlargement and Russia; Mediterranean partnership & the Muslim world
To maintain US leadership in Western security To provide a ‘toolbox’ in support of US/Western strategy
outside the European region To form the core of a wider ‘alliance of democracies’? Underlying tension between US-led ‘West’ and Europe
as a part of ‘the Western alliance’: is this sustainable?
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The EU at 50: mid-life crisis, or healthy middle age?
The shadow of the past: ‘Old Believers’ and new ‘Pragmatists’. The Monnet model of functional integration, as an elite project
EC-6 and EU-27: nostalgia for ‘core Europe’, reluctant adjustment to enlargement
Economic and security success, popular disillusionment – taking it all for granted
Is European society in crisis? US neo-conservatives image of secular decline into ‘Eurabia’
The EU as a ‘mature’ community? Unloved, but necessary to manage globalization
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The EU agenda
Institutional dilemmas: after the Lisbon Treaty? European economic governance: how much further
integration is needed? Single currency, financial regulation, fiscal coordination
Coping with recession: can national preferences be resisted?
Political leadership and strategic direction: who sets the agenda? France, Germany, UK
Can European publics be led? Populism and consumerism, identity politics and migration, the end of deference and mistrust of elites
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Internal Security, external borders
Open borders, cross-national crime and terror Order and justice as the core of sovereignty: obstacles to
cooperation The development of European bodies: Europol, Eurojust,
Frontex Mass travel, mass migration: external border control.
Whose responsibilities, whose costs? Is a common immigration policy manageable? External
pressures, internal resistance
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A common foreign policy?
Do European states share a common view of world order? Or a strategic culture? Can European states avoid developing global policies?
Washington’s agenda, Europe’s response: is CFSP compatible with NATO?
3 states, 6, or 27? Imbalance of resources and capabilities
Strategic relationships: USA, Russia, the Arab/Muslim world (but China and India?)
Is Africa Europe’s problem? Sovereignty and status, intelligence and budgets
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What kind of Iceland in what sort of world?
Global recession, global warming, global epidemics: the new insecurity agenda for a less benign world
Choices for small states: marginalization, specialization (offshore ‘niches’), or participation
US leadership vs European partnership Identity politics or integration? Nostalgia or
globalization? North Korea as the model sovereign state International (and domestic) politics as a continuous
negotiation among unsatisfactory choices The Nordic model: small states, moderate autonomy and
international responsibility
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