Assessment of the labour market and employment situation by the ILO

Euro-Mediterranean Employment and Labour

High Level Working GroupBrussels, 14 February 2012

Dorothea SchmidtEmployment Specialist

Decent Work Support Team for North Africa, Cairo

Content

1. The challenges before and after the recent events in the Southern Mediterranean countries

2. The outlook3. Some food for thought regarding

possible solutions (based on the experience in North Africa)

1. The challenges before and after the recent events in the Southern Mediterranean countries

Challenges in the Arab World: An ILO responseCreating decent work opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa

1. Unemployment, underemployment and inactivity

2. Inequality and exclusion (including gender, regional disparities, ethnic minorities)

3. Lack of skills and unsatisfactory economic performance (miss-match and productivity)

4. Insufficient social protection (including wages)

5. Insufficient social dialogue6. Non- acceptance of ILS

Unemployment levels world regions

WO

RLD

Dev. E

conom

ie...

Centra

l & S

E E

...

East A

sia

SE A

sia &

the P

...

South

Asia

Latin

Am

erica

...

Sub-S

ahara

n A

f...

GC

C

Non-G

CC

North

Africa

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0 Male unemployment rate (%) 2011Female unemployment rate (%) 2011Youth unemployment rate (%) 2011Adult unemployment rate (%) 2011

%

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Unemployment Trends

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.09.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.015.0

Developed Economies & European Union

Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS

East Asia

South-East Asia & the Pacific

South Asia

Latin America & the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

GCC

Non-GCC

North Africa

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Source: Montenegro and Hirn (2009)

Labour force participation ratesworld regions 2011

WO

RLD

Dev. E

conom

ies...

Centra

l & S

E E

ur...

East A

sia

SEA

Asia

& th

e P

a...

South

Asia

Latin

Am

erica

& ...

Sub-S

ahara

n A

frica

GC

C

Non-G

CC

North

Africa

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Male labour force participation rate (%) 2011Female labour force participation rate (%) 2011Youth labour force participation rate (%) 2011Adult labour force participation rate (%) 2011

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Employment-to-population ratio

WO

RLD

Deve

loped E

conom

...

Centra

l & S

outh

-E...

East A

sia

South

-East A

sia &

t...

South

Asia

Latin

Am

erica

& t...

GC

C

Non-G

CC

North

Africa

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Male employment-to-population ratio (%)

Female employment-to-population ratio (%)

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Sectoral Trends

SERVICE SECTOR

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

p5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

MANUFACTURING

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011p

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0 Developed Economies & Eu-ropean Union

Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS

East Asia

South-East Asia & the Pacific

South Asia

Latin America & the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

GCC

Non-GCC

North Africa

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Vulnerable Employment

Vuln

era

ble

em

plo

ym

ent

Vuln

era

ble

em

plo

ym

ent

1991 2011*

0.010.020.030.040.050.0

Non-GCCNorth Africa

Vulnerable employment World Regions

Dev. Economies & EU

Central & SE Europe (non-EU) & CIS

East Asia

SE Asia & the Pacific

South Asia

Latin America & the Car-ibbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

GCC

Non-GCC

North Africa

0.0 10.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

Chart Title

Working poverty (USDollar 2 a day)

Central & SE Europe (non-EU) & CIS

East Asia

South-East Asia & the Pacific

South Asia

Latin America & the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

GCC

Non-GCC

North Africa

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Productivity and productivity growth

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011D

eve

loped E

conom

ies &

Euro

pean U

nio

n

Centra

l & S

outh

-Easte

rn

Euro

pe (n

on-E

U) &

CIS

East A

sia

South

-East A

sia &

the P

acifi

c

South

Asia

Latin

Am

erica

& th

e C

ar-

ibbean

Sub-S

ahara

n A

frica

GC

C

Non-G

CC

North

Africa

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000 +33%

+23% +357% +77%+139%

+15%

+18%

-1%

+11% +22%

19912011

US

Dollar

Other areas of decent work Social dialogue became stronger in some

countries and is getting more difficult in others Social protection became weak because of

budget constraints and lack of political decision making

Wages decrease Gender inequalities increase Regional disparities increase but get attention Ethnic minorities are even more vulnerable Openness with regards to ILS but no decisions

taken yet

2. Outlook

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010 2 2 2

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.0

Non-GCC

North Africa

%

Source: IMF, October 2011

Dependency ratios

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Non-GCC

Pop

ula

tion

Dep

en

den

cy

Rati

o

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

0.30

0.80

1.30

1.80

2.30

2.80

3.30

3.80

4.30

Non-GCCNorth Africa

Em

plo

ym

en

t D

ep

en

den

cy

rati

o

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Amounts of jobs that need to be created between 2011 and 2016, different scenarios

in million

Amounts of jobs that would need to be created

Amounts of jobs that would need to be created

Amounts of jobs that would need to be created

LFPR as 2011 LFPR as 2011 LFPR 60%

UER as 2011 UER 6% UER 6%

Arab States 12.866 19.248 47.733GCC 21.80 18.69 18.33

North Africa 63.23 10.105 27.907

Source: Author’s calculations based on ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

3. Some food for thought regarding possible solutions (based on the experience in North Africa)

Creating opportunities for people while empowering them Protecting the most vulnerable (empowering and rule of

law) A coherent employment policy for each country National and sub-state action plans Improving labour market institutions Improving knowledge on labour markets and M&E

systems Looking for alternatives

Volunteer services Social economy approaches LED approaches Integrated approaches Etc…

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