eu nuclear status & prospect
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EU EU NuclearNuclear StatusStatus & Prospects& Prospects
Bertrand BarréENS President
INSC PresidentAdvisor to AREVA
Olkiluoto – July 2005GLOBAL 05 – Tsukuba, October 2005
BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 20052
Yugoslav Nuclear SocietySwiss Nuclear SocietySwedish Nuclear Society
Spanish Nuclear SocietySlovak Nuclear SocietyRomanian Nuclear EnergyAssociation
Polish Nuclear SocietyNuclear Society of SloveniaNuclear Society of Russia
Netherlands NuclearSociety
Lithuanian Nuclear EnergyAssociation
Italian Nuclear Association
Israel Nuclear SocietyHungarian Nuclear SocietyGerman Nuclear Society
French Nuclear EnergySociety
Finnish Nuclear SocietyDanish Nuclear Society
Czech Nuclear SocietyCroatian Nuclear SocietyBulgarian Nuclear Society
British Nuclear EnergySociety
Belgian Nuclear SocietyAustrian Nuclear Society
24 Member Societies accross Europe
www.euronuclear.org
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European Union EU-25
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Specifics of Europe
Population no longer Growing
High per capita GNP
High energy use /Low consumption growth rate
Low Fossil Fuels Resources / High dependancy
Environment consciousness
High technology
Nuclear Power well fitted to European Situation
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BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 20056
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Nuclear Electricity 2004Country GWe TWh Nb Reac. %ElecUSA 98 789 103 20France 63 427 59 78Japan 48 274 55 29Germany 20 158 17 32Russia 22 133 31 16South Korea 17 124 20 38Canada 12 85 17 15Ukraine 13 81 15 51Sweden 9 75 10 52U Kingdom 12 74 23 19WORLD 368 2 619 440 16
Website WNA August 2005
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Nuclear Power in EU 25Country Nuclear % Elec # reactors GWe
TWh (2004) (July 2005)Belgium 44.9 55 7 5.7Czech Republic 26.3 31 6 3.5Finland 21.8 27 4 2.7France 426.8 78 59 63.4Germany 158.4 32 17 20.3Hungary 11.2 34 4 1.8Lithuania 13.9 72 1 1.2Netherlands 3.6 4 1 0.4Slovakia 15.6 55 6 2.5Slovenia 5.2 38 1 0.7Spain 60.9 23 9 7.6Sweden 75.0 52 10 8.9United Kingdom 73.5 10 23 11.9
TOTAL EU 25 937.3 32 148 130.6
BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 20059
Nuclear Power in EuropeRegion Nuclear TWh # reactors GWe
EU 25 937.3 148 130.6Bulgaria 15.6 4 2.7Romania 5.1 1 0.7
EU 28 958.0 153 134.0Switzerland 25.4 5 3.2
West Europe 983.4 158 137.2Russian Federation 133.0 31 21.7Ukraine 81.1 15 13.1
Total Europe 1197.5 204 172.0WORLD 2618.6 440 367.7
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Main Players on the Nuclear Power Marketplace (2004)
* Publicly traded company ** Separative Work Units*** Of which half purchased from MINATOM (HEU) *** Plus the 15% sold to USEC (HEU)
2004
Mar
ket
CAM
ECO*
UREN
CO
USEC
*
AREV
A
BNFL
WES
TING
HOUS
E
Gene
ral E
lect
ric*
OTHE
R
Conversion/Chemistry
Enrichment
L E Uranium fuel(UO2)
Reactors & Services
Reprocessing
Recycling
& MOX fuel
20%
20% 30% ***
20%
25%
25%
35%
25%
75%
90%
5%(2006 shutdown)
BNFL, URENCOshareholder
25%
15%
15%
10%
20%
20%****
10%
15%
10%
30%
15%
10%
50%
JNFLin future
10%
JNFLin future
70,000 t
55,000 tU
37.5MSWUs**
6,500 t
370 GWe
1,500 t
150 t
FRO
NT
END
BA
CK
EN
D
Mining / Natural Uranium
MIN
ATOM
Grou
p
BNFL/SMP
a/c 2004
20%
5%
15%
35%
€6.6B in 2004 sales
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AREVA and URENCO JV* in centrifuge technology
NewURENCO
(Holding)
ETC(1)
(URENCO-COGEMA JV)Established in 2003
Centrifuge design and manufacturing
R&D andtechnology
Centrifuge production capacity
1 million SWU / year
CapacityEURODIF: 10 million SWUGB II 2007: 0.3 million SWU
2018: 7.5+ million SWU
GBII project SWU production
+ Marketing and sales
AREVACOGEMA
33% 33%
BNFL Dutch Gov’t.
RWE+E.on
33%
2003 capacity6 million SWU
Rapid growth rate
UEB - URENCOSWU production
+Marketing and sales
50%50%Minorityholders
centrifugescentrifuges
Third parties
centrifuges
*Subject to ratification of intergovernmental treaty (NL, Germany, UK, France)(1) Enrichment Technology Company
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Vendors’Share of LWR-HWR Capacity (MWe)MWe installed
0
FRA
BW
SIE
AREVA(92)
W
ABB-CE
ABB
Mitsubishi*
BNFLWestinghouse
(103)
GeneralElectric
HitachiToshiba*
FAAEVVER
AECL
(69)
(7)
(16)
(6)(1)
(79)
(14)
(10)
(50)
(53)(31)(18)
(29)Doosan*
(8)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
BWRPWR PHWR
*Licensed by: Westinghouse to Mitsubishi and Doosan G.E. to Hitachi/Toshiba ** Following Framatome's purchase of the commercial reactors business from B&W at the end of the 1990s, AREVA may beconsidered as the preferred service partner for these reactors in the United States, although it is not liable as a constructorSource: AREVA
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The Evolution of Nuclear Power
Generation I
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Future Future SystemsAdvanced Advanced
ReactorsSystemsReactorsCurrent Current
ReactorsReactorsFirst First
ReactorsReactors
UNGGCHOOZ
Generation II
Generation IIIREP 900
REP 1300 N4
Generation IV
?EPR
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« Generation 3 » Nuclear Plants
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Production costs of EPR vs CCGT
Production costs
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2,4 3,3 3,6 4,7Gas price ($/MBtu)
€/MWh
CCG
EPR
FOAK
CO2 not included
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Ok 3 Supplier ConsortiumFramatome ANP and Siemens PG
Framatome ANP:overall project coordination (including functional and technical integration of the complete plant),Nuclear Island (Nuclear Steam Supply System plus Balance of the Nuclear Island),Instrumentation and Control plus Simulator for the whole plant,supply of the first core of fuel assemblies.
Siemens PG:Turbine Island.
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Site Works at Olkiluoto (Finland) spring2004
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Concrete pouring August 2005
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EPR Reactor Vessel
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EPR Steam Generator
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GEN IV : paves the way for a sustainable nuclear energy
New requirements for sustainable nuclear energy
Concepts with breakthroughs
Minimization of wastesPreservation of resourcesResistance to Proliferation
• Gradual improvements in :CompetitivenessSafety and reliability
New applications :hydrogen productionwater desalinationdirect use of heat
Penetration of new markets :emerging countriessmall countries
GénérationIV
International Forum
Members
GénérationIV
International Forum
Members
U.S.A.U.S.A.
ArgentinaArgentina
BrazilBrazil
CanadaCanadaFranceFrance
JapanJapan
South AfricaSouth Africa
UnitedUnitedKingdomKingdom
SwitzeSwitzerlandrland
E.U.E.U.
South KoreaSouth Korea
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Different systems for different applications
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065
Hydrogen
Electricity Generation
Waste Burndown
Fissile Creation
Near-Term
Systems
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Capability to target new applicationsNuclearNuclear energyenergy willwill bebe essential for :essential for :
Electrical power generation
…… but but alsoalso for new applications :for new applications :Hydrogen productionDirect use of HeatSea water desalination
Nuclear HeatNuclear HeatHydrogenHydrogen OxygenOxygen
H2O22
1
900 C400 C
Rejected Heat 100 C
Rejected Heat 100 C
S (Sulfur)Circulation
SO2+H2O+O22
1H2SO4
SO2+
H2OH2O
H2
I2+ 2HI
H2SO4
SO2+H2OH2O
+
+ +
I (Iodine)Circulation
2H I
I2
I2
WaterWater
Nuclear HeatNuclear HeatHydrogenHydrogen OxygenOxygen
H2O22
1 O22121
900 C400 C
Rejected Heat 100 C
Rejected Heat 100 C
S (Sulfur)Circulation
SO2+H2O+O22
1H2SO4
SO2+
H2OH2O
H2
I2+ 2HI
H2SO4
SO2+H2OH2O
+
+ +
I (Iodine)Circulation
2H I
I2
I2
WaterWater
Very High Temperature Reactor
Fuel Cell Prototypevehicle
(hydrogen)
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Nuclear Generation Forecasts 2003-2030(IAEA July 2004)
1600
?
14002003
2010 l2010 h
2020 l2020 h
2030 l2030 h
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0N Amer L Amer Eur W Eur E Africa ME+AsE Far East
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24 708 EU25 citizens…
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Some Results of EUROBAROMETER 277
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EU 25
HungarySweden
Czech RepublicLithuaniaFinlandSlovakiaFranceNetherlandsBelgium
United KingdomSloveniaEstoniaLatviaGermany
LuxemburgItalyDenmarkPolandPortugalMaltaSpainIrelandCyprusGreeceAustria
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Nuclear supporter : male, educated, right-wing
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Even in Europe : a Change of Mood ?
Finland and France order new plants
German phaseout not supported by CDU-CSU
After Baerseback, no new Swedish shutdown in theplanning
New EU Members much more supportive – Likely to influence the EP
Swiss antinuke referendum widely beaten
UK White Paper still « in » ?
Even in Italy, nuclear non longer « taboo »