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EU and its Eastern neighboursJust a political geostrategic game?

Jacques BazenLecturer International EconomicsResearcher Regional Economic Development

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Overview of the lecture

• International cooperation in Europe

• EU Eastern partnership – case study

• How to explain the Ukranian crisis:Geopolitics or Clash of values?

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Let’s start with taking a step back:

What again is the European Union all about?

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Europe after WW II

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Europe after WW II

• Situation: Europe was in ruins

• Goal: How to break free from the past and prevent future wars?

• Solution: Make the economies of EU countries dependent on each other!

• Goal of the EU is political, to be achieved by economic means

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Goals of the EU

• Internal market in Europe achieved…

• Internal peace guaranteed… (we hope)

• What now???

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Smart, Inclusive, Sustainable

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Nice, but how?

Means to reach these goals:

Targeted EU Funding for projects in the field of:- Regional development- Innovation- Social cohesion- Sustainable developmentEtc.

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EU Foreign relations

• Several tools to support EU Businesses with international trade treaties

• Among others also: EU Eastern Partnership

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International trade

Is free trade (always) good for everyone?

Upon constructing railroads in the USA: “If we buy the steel from Britain, we have the steel but the money is gone. If we buy the steel in the United States, we have the steel and the money, too. Such an advantage far outweighs a lower price for imported steel.”

Abraham Lincoln

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Without right policies and actions, peripheral regions will remain underdeveloped, orget even worse.

The challenge of weaker economic regions

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EU Foreign relations

• Strengthening the position of EU Businesses in the world

• Becoming the worlds most innovative region

And… STAY there!

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EU Eastern Partnership

Aimed at improving:- Trade with former Sovjet Union states- Making travel easier- European-wide

environmental issues(eg. Baltic Sea, Black Sea)

Not: Candidate membership

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Trouble in Ukraine: A small story from the viewpoint of the West

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Trouble in Ukraine

Can the EU help?

Maybe a trade agreement/other funding?

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Trouble in Ukraine

Conditions for reform were demanded by the EU. The president refused to sign

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Trouble in Ukraine

Conditions for reform were demanded by the EU. The president refused to sign

Ukrainian people were fed up by the unfairness of the government and started mass protests.

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Trouble in Ukraine

The protests succeeded: The president was ousted.

Ukrainian people were fed up by the unfairness of the government and started mass protests.

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Trouble in Ukraine: View from the West

Angry elite feels these changes as a big threat to their lucrative businesses...

A threat that must be stopped...

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Is this what and why it happened?

Or are there other explanations?

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• Is it a geopolitical game?

• Russia: an attempt to expand the European Union's “sphere of influence” in the quest for oil and gas. International relations according to Russia: Zero-Sum game, so stay out of our backyard!

• EU: These countries voluntarily joined the partnership. No geopolitical tool or blackmail

How to explain the current crisis in Ukraine?

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How to explain the current crisis in Ukraine?

Can Geopolitical theory help with some answers?

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Geopolitical theory

Since the industrial revolution, states need more and more resources for production and people to work in factories.

Foreign policy based on secure access to resources.

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Russia, Ratzel & The Roman Empire

Friedrich Ratzel: Organic state theory. States are like organisms. Stagnation is decay see Roman Empire.

Ratzel’s idea of growth: German culture should “fertilize” minor nations with its superior culture.

Organic state theory is influential in Russia (“Mother Russia”) breakup of the Soviet Union was a psychological disaster.

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Secure access to resources

• Eastern partnership?

• Less dependency on Russian gas?

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Role of the USAIs there a secret conspiracy of the USA to destroy Russia? (Depicting Russia as evil aggressor)

Over 60% of the Russians believe this.

Emotion driven politics in Russia the unknown is to be feared

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Role of the USAIs there a secret conspiracy of the USA to destroy Russia?

Exchange rate politics?

Depreciation of Ruble against the Dollar

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Role of the USAOil politics – geopolitical measures?

Decreasing the oil prices –Hitting Russia where it hurts the most?

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Sanctions in RussiaHitting Europe where it hurts the most?

Food import boycott

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Sanctions in RussiaHitting Europe where it hurts the most?

Food import boycott

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History repeating itself? American point of view

Cold war containment policy:

George Kennan: Soviet rulers need a hostile world to legitimize their autocratic rule and seek to expand to minimize the “threat” from outside.

America should create a counterforce by giving economic aid (Marshall plan)

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American imperialism…

Cold War history repeating itself???

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Another explanation“Institutional” theorists suggest the current troubles in Ukraine are most likely the consequence of the extractive nature of the Ukrainian and Russian government institutions.

In other words: Any move towards the EU with its freedom means a threat for the personal interests of the elite in both Kiev and Moscow.

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Inclusive versus Extractive institutions

Inclusive countries: Extractive countries:

- Rule of law - Rule of elite

- Equality for all: - Some are more equal Solid property rights than others

- Aimed at effectiveness - Aimed at interests of and efficiency the ruling class

- Encouragement of - Encouragement of clientelism:Entrepreneurship: incentive to be government Incentive to invest official or politician.

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Conclusion2 Different paradigms/truths opposing each other:

EU Russia- Countries should start from - Countries should take cover

their own strengths behind the back of a strong ally (“Protector”)

- International relations are - International relations are a synergetic zero-sum game

- State is instrumental for - State is organic/sacred:supporting quality of life “Mother Russia”

- Rational policies, but could - Emotion driven policiesmean “creative destruction”

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Conclusion

The role of the USA in the conflict remains unclear:

The USA government claims to support freedom and security. The Russian government claims that the USA is only fighting for the interest of American politicians and American big business in their quest for world domination.

In what sense is this indeed a geopolitical game in which the EU is squeezed in the middle?