ELECTION STRATEGY AND ETHNIC POLITICS IN

SINGAPORE

Singapore: Overview

• Unitary multiparty republic with a west minister system of unicameral parliamentary government.• 4th leading financial hub• 2nd densest sovereign state• Multicultural and Multiracial• Numerically dominated by immigrant ethnic groups• Young population

Singapore: Overview

• President- Tony Tan Keng Yam• Prime Minister- Lee Hsien Loong• Speaker of Parliament- Halimah Yacob• Chief Justice- Sundaresh Menon

Singapore: Demographic

Demographics

Age structure [2012 estimate]• 0-14 years: 14% (M 382,537/F

364,542) • 15-24 years: 18.6% (M 488,785/F

504,717) • 25-54 years: 50% (M 1,309,014/F

1,369,912) • 55-64 years: 9.7% (M 259,370/F

259,222) • 65 years and over: 7.8% (M 187,448/F

227,947)

Literacy (2000 census)- definition: age 15 and over can read

and write

• total population: 92.5% • male: 96.6% • female: 88.6%

Demographics

Ethnic groups (2000 census)• Chinese 76.8%• Malay 13.9%• Indian 7.9%• other 1.4%

Religions (2000 census)• Buddhist 42.5%• Muslim 14.9%• Taoist 8.5%• Hindu 4%• Catholic 4.8%• other Christian 9.8%• other 0.7%• none 14.8%

Demographics

Ethnic struggle and Socio-ethnic cleavages

• Singapore was filled with impoverished immigrants from China, India

and Malaysia during the 50’s due to unrestricted immigration policies

• Rising Chinese unification polarized the multiracial society

• Legacy of British planning divided the society.

Ethnic struggle and Socio-ethnic cleavages• Chinese- core, Malays- western and eastern fringes and India- small

scattered groupings• Racial riots between Chinese and Malays 1950, 1964 [36 killed] and

1969 • Spill over of Sino-Malay riots to Malaysian General Elections riot 1969

[196 killed]• Government excluded Malays from compulsory military conscription

[10 years] and Malay’s are excepted from high ranking military institutions

Ethnic struggle and Socio-ethnic cleavages• Adopted Lijpart’s “consociationalist” model , recognizing special

position through the bumiputra [son of the soil]• Article 153 of the Malay Constitution safeguarded by the Yand di-

Pertuan Agong [Paramount ruler]

ELECTIONS

•Parliamentary elections- Formerly called “Legislative Assembly” - Term is every 5 years- Unicameral - Members of Parliament (MPs) who are elected, as well

as Non-constituency Members of Parliament (NCMPs) and Nominated Members of Parliament (NMPs) who are appointed.

ELECTIONS

•Presidential Elections- In 1992, the Singapore Constitution was amended to provide for a

President elected by the people- Before that, all four Presidents were elected by the legislature- An elected President's term is six years

Political Parties

Political Parties• People’s Action Party- Established by two left-wing

factions - the socialists led by Lee Kuan Yew and pro-communist sympathisers by Lim Chin Siong.- Ideologies (CR): Modern,

Social conservatism, Fiscal conservatism, Third Way, Anti- Communism.- Lee Hsien Loong

Political Parties• Worker’s Party- Founded by former Chief

Minister and LF leader David Marshall, it is the oldest opposition party today. - Ideology (CL): Social

Democracy- Low Thia Kiang

MANAGED ELECTIONS

RESULTS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN SINGAPORE

• Constituency• electoral district; is a distinct territorial subdivision for holding a

separate election for one or more seats in a legislative body.• Single-member district: one vote for one candidate• Multiple-member district: options are now available for voting

• By-election• Also known as the “special election,” occurs when a political office becomes

vacant between regularly scheduled elections, for the reason of the incumbent’s sudden death or resignation.

• In the case of Singapore, oppositions adopted type of election as a ‘strategy’ to undermine PAP dominance

Singaporean Government

• British Westminster model of parliamentary democracy• Unicameral Parliamentary System• Cabinet headed by the PM

• Voting System: “First-past-the-post” system • Singapore has about 20 political parties. However, they have all been

marginalized by the PAP.

Electoral Party System

• Consists of both single-member and multiple-member constituencies

• 1988 – introduction of the Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs)• 14 of the 23 electoral constituencies consist of multiple-member GRC wards,

electing “Team MPs (members of the Parliament), consisting of 5 or 6 candidates

• The political predominance of PAP has created a political system described by scholars (Blondel, 1969; Huntington and Moore, 1970; etc.) as a “dominant one-party system”

• Such “dominance” has enabled the ruling government to effect dramatic transformations of country’s political arena with minimal difficulty, despite objections from the Opposition camp.

Constitutional-electoral Reforms

• Non-constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP)• Specifies the condition of parliamentary membership of the three highest-

scoring Opposition candidates if ever they failed to win any seat in the general elections• However, it is also specified that they could not vote on key issues in

Parliament, including constitutional amendments as well as budgetary and supply bills.

• Nominated MP (NMP)• Offers “more opportunity for political participation and to evolve a more

consensual style of government...” (Minister Goh Chok Tong)• Like NCMPs, NMPs are not eligible to vote on money and constitutional bills

or on motions of “no confidence”• Non-partisanship must be observed by the potential nominee of NMP in

order not to be recognized as a nuisance candidate.

• Group Representation Constituencies (GRC)• Refers to the voting patterns of younger Singaporeans, who seemed unaware

“of the need to return a racially balanced slate of candidates.”• It ensures that the Parliament would forever be “multiracial in composition

and representation.” (Goh, 1989).• Under this proposal, multiple-member constituencies were created and

“teams” of candidates had to include at least one candidate belong to either Malay, Indian or other minority communities.

• Elected President (EP)• Has a fiduciary role: being a public custodian to safeguard the Republic’s

financial reserves from being unscrupulously squandered by a new government.• Government’s principal motive for the elected presidency: (1) safeguarding

large foreign reserves, (2) the need to ensure the credibility and efficiency of the state bureaucracy

Overseas Voting

• April 2001 – the amendment of Parliamentary Elections Act allows Singaporeans residing abroad to register as overseas electors and remain entitled to vote

• However only five cities will only be available of overseas voting: Beijing, Hong Kong, Canberra, London, and Washington

Allegations of Unfair Electoral Practices by the PAP

• PAP’s mistreatment towards oppositions seated in the Parliament

• Restrictions on political communication• Censorship of international publications and domestic media about

opposition’s standpoints.• Severe limitations of electoral campaign period on opposition candidates

Empirical Tests of Selected Allegations

Terms to remember:

• Group Representation Constituency• Single Member Constituency• Gerrymandering • Walkover Districts

ETHNIC POLITICS IN SINGAPORE

ETHNIC SETTING OF SINGAPORE

SOCIAL STRATA

ETHNIC GROUP PERCENT IN POPULATION

MONTHLY INCOME(2006)

EDUCATIONALATTAINMENT (2000)

CHINESE 75% Sg$6,520 10.8%

INDIAN (Tamils) 9% Sg$5,940 8.1%

MALAYS 14% Sg$3,850 1.8%

“acute sense of relative deprivation generally felt by the Malay community with their persisting place in the socio- economic margins of society.”

economic disadvantage

support for the opposition party candidates

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF POLITICAL

DIFFERENCES BY ETHNICITY

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF POLITICAL DIFFERENCES BY ETHNICITY

EstimateMalay -.164Indian -.325*Education .103*Income .021Female -.025Age Category -.069Constant 1 (Y = 1) -1.078*Constant 2 (Y = 2) 2.516*Nagelkerke R2 .028χ2 30.069*Degrees of Freedom 6N 1,342

1.

Source: Singapore subset of 2002 World Values Survey

Determinants of Individuals’ Dissatisfaction with Government in 2002

Four category dependent variable:

Satisfaction with the ruling PAP leadership: a)VERY SATISFIED- 22.5%b)FAIRLY SATISFIED- 68.7%c) FAIRLY DISSATISFIED- 6.8%d)VERY DISSATISFIED- 2.1%

2. Examination of actual voting result

• a. compare average level of opposition 2006

Malay GRCs vote for opposition- 35%Indian/other GRCs- 28%

• b. 1976 1988 2006

Chinese, % Opp. (standard error)

23.7* (1.3) 28.6*( 1.9)

34.8*( 3.6)

Malay, % Opp.(standard error)

43.2* (5.4) 70.4*( 5.8)

22.7*( 8.6)

Indian, % Opp.(standard error)

11.0 (9.8) 10.5(11.1)

38.5(25.1)

N 53 54 13

CONCLUSION

• The ruling party poses tactics that are unfairly detrimental to the

opposition

• Introduction of the PAP’s GRC system (1988) has a huge bearing on

the eventual results of the general election.

• Threat of the increasing middle class to PAP’s monopolization.

CONCLUSION

• Later desegration of the city has blunted the Malay’s ethno political solidarity.• Rising opposition spearheaded by the ethnically Chinese.• PAP’s regime could be fading for the next generation.

References:

• Fetzer, J. S. (2008). Election Strategy and Ethnic Politics in Singapore. Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Volume 4, No. 1, 135-153.• Hwee, Y. L. (2002). Electoral Politics in Singapore. Electoral Politics in

Southeast and East Asia, 203-232.• Mutalib, H. (2002). Constitutional-Electoral Reforms and Politics in

Singapore. Legislative Studies Quarterly, Volume 27, No. 4, 659-672.• (2004, August 22). Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Singapore Elections

Web site: http://www.singapore-elections.com/

References:

• Singapore Demographics Profile 2013. (2013, February 21). Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Index Mundi Web site: http://www.indexmundi.com/singapore/demographics_profile.html• Department of Statistics Singapore. (2012). Yearbook of Statistics

Singapore 2012. Singapore: Department of Statistics Ministry of Trade & Industry.• Tan, N. (2012). Constitutional Engineering and Regulating Ethnic

Politics in Singapore. Constitutional Design and Ethnic Conflict Conference, (pp. 1-31). New York.