ethane/ethylene; propane/propylene let’s call the whole ... · and the table layouts have changed...
TRANSCRIPT
www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Ethane/Ethylene; Propane/Propylene
– Let’s call the whole thing off
For:
Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
By:
Warren Wilczewski
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis
EIA mission: independent statistics and analysis
• EIA was created by the U.S. Congress in 1977
• EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy
information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public
understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the
environment
• EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and, by law, its
data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other
officer or employee of the U.S. Government
• EIA does not propose or advocate any policy positions
2 Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
Key takeaways
• On August 31, with the release of the 2016 Petroleum Supply Annual, EIA
implemented the alkanes/olefins split in its monthly tables back to January
2010 – both on the web and in the Petroleum Supply Monthly
• Surveys remain the same, and the data remain the same, only the labels
and the table layouts have changed
• Much of the work based on stakeholder input
• The only data that will no longer appear in EIA tables is ethylene, with the
exception of refinery production of ethylene
• Together with new rail data and other products, EIA’s coverage of HGL
continues to improve, with more enhancements to come
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 3
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
If you’re experiencing déjà vu, you’re not alone
Source: EIA’s YouTube Channel; Alkanes/Olefins split in HGL Data Workshop
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EIA’s HGL terminology bridges how the commodities are supplied,
marketed and consumed
5
*Butanes include normal butane and isobutane.
Refinery
Olefins
Refinery Olefins
Natural Gasoline)
Natural Gasoline)
Natural Gasoline, & Refinery Olefins)
Plant Condensate
Crude Oil/ Lease Condensate
Gas Well Oil Well
Field/Lease Separator
Refinery/ Condensate Splitter
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
EIA’s revised monthly data tables for HGL affect all natural gas liquids
(alkanes) and refinery olefins (olefins)
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Natural
Gasoline
Ethane
+
Ethylene (net refinery
production only)
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
Liquefied
Petroleum Gases
-ethane -ethylene
-propane -propylene
-n-butane -n-butylene
-isobutane -isobutylene
Pentanes
Plus
Ethane/
Ethylene
Propane
+
Propylene
Propane/
Propylene
Normal
Butane
+
Normal
Butylene
Normal Butane/
Normal Butylene
Isobutane
+
Isobutylene
Isobutane/
Isobutylene
Alkanes = Natural Gas Liquids
Olefins = Refinery Olefins
propane
n-butane
isobutane
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
Where it all began…
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market calls this Natural Gasoline
LPG? Not really, since it includes ethane and all refinery olefins
Mixed products from multiple sources of production reporting combined product supplied numbers that in fact
serve completely different markets
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
…where we are now
Source: EIA, Supply and Disposition table
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ALKANES
OLEFINS
Source: EIA, Exports by Destination
The new tables/categories fixed what needed fixing
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 9
Surveys remain the same, and the data remain the same, only the labels
and the table layouts have changed
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 10
Source: EIA, Natural Gas Plant Field Production
Surveys remain the same, and the data remain the same, only the labels
and the table layouts have changed
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 11
Source: EIA, Refinery Net Production
Surveys remain the same, and the data remain the same, only the labels
and the table layouts have changed
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 12
Source: EIA, Refinery & Blender Net Input
Surveys remain the same, and the data remain the same, only the labels
and the table layouts have changed
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 13
Source: EIA, Movements by Pipeline
between PAD Districts – PADD 1 to
PADD 2
Surveys remain the same, and the data remain the same, only the labels
and the table layouts have changed
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 14
Source: EIA, Movements of Crude Oil and Selected Products by Rail between PAD Districts
Natural gas processing plant stocks are alkanes-only
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 15
• Though EIA survey product codes for
natural gas plants collect data on
alkane/olefin mixes, natural gas plants
do not produce olefins
• Therefore, all natural gas plant stocks
are of alkanes only
Source: EIA, Stocks by Type – Natural Gas Processing Plant
Pipeline stocks of HGL are nearly wholly alkanes
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 16
• Based on stakeholder feedback, EIA
has determined at best minor
quantities of olefins are moved by
pipelines that respond to EIA’s surveys
• All stocks of mixed alkanes/olefins in
pipelines have therefore been moved
to the alkanes-only categories
Source: EIA, Stocks by Type – Pipeline
Bulk Terminal surveys, for the most part, already collected olefins stocks
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 17
• EIA surveys bulk terminals on the
mixed alkane/olefins codes, but also
collects separate data on propylene
and ethylene stocks
• Propane stocks are therefore now
reported as prior propane/propylene
MINUS the propylene portion
• Ethane stocks are the ethane/ethylene
stocks MINUS the ethylene.
• The Ethylene will no longer be reported
• Based on stakeholder feedback, stocks
of butanes/butylenes are assumed to
be of alkanes only
• Pentanes Plus stocks = Natural
Gasoline stocks Source: EIA, Stocks by Type – Bulk Terminal
Refinery stocks required a more involved approach
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 18
• Refinery stocks are surveyed as
alkane/olefin mixes
• No blanket assumptions can be made
about particular refineries or regions
that would allow for a clear split of
alkanes and olefins
• Through consultation with industry
stakeholders, EIA learned refinery
stocks generally reflect refinery
throughput
• Refinery stocks are therefore split in
EIA’s back-office system, by calculating
ratios of refinery net production of each
alkane and olefin, and applying that
ratio to monthly stocks
• Underlying survey data remains
unchanged Source: EIA, Stocks by Type – Refinery
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PADD 1
propane product supplied
thousand barrels/month heating degree days
PADD 2
propane product supplied
thousand barrels/month heating degree days
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
Applying new data – propane product supplied & heating degree days
Source: EIA Propane Product Supplied; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Weighted Heating Degree Days
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0
400
800
1,200
1,600
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 2
3
4 5
propane product supplied
heating degree days
propane product supplied
heating degree days
And how about that rail?
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 20
(almost) All rail data,
(almost) all the time
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 21
2010 Movements
22 Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
propylene propane
isobutane normal butane
2016 Movements
23 Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
propylene propane
isobutane normal butane
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010/Jan 2011/Jan 2012/Jan 2013/Jan 2014/Jan 2015/Jan 2016/Jan 2017/Jan
Canada to U.S. propane rail shipments, by PADD
1,000 b/d
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
Post-Cochin, Canadian shippers seek markets with fewer rail miles
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration – Movements of Propane by Rail
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1 2
3
4 5
PADD 5 share of Canadian rail exports 10% 7% 33%
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Conway, KS
Edmonton, AB
Edmonton to Conway spread
approx. AB-KS rail cost
Conway/Edmonton price spread reflects changing shipper practice
Source: EIA, Bloomberg, data through October 23, 2017
average monthly propane spot price
¢/gallon
25 Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Western Canada propane inventory
million barrels
PADD 2 (Midwest) propane/propylene inventory
million barrels
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
If not by rail…
Source: National Energy Board of Canada;
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W. Canada inventories
5-year average
5-year range
PADD 2 inventories
5-year average
5-year range
Selected state propane* inventories
Source: EIA, Propane Situation Update, data through Oct. 20, 2017
27 Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
*propane/propylene for fuel use only; inventories include stocks at terminals,
gas plants, and refineries only
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Kansas propane stocksthousand bbls
5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Michigan propane stocksthousand bbls
5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Illinois, Indiana, Ohio propane stocksthousand bbls
5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin propane stocksthousand bbls
5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Source: EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook also falling in line
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 28
U.S. ethane production and disposition
million barrels
historical projected ethane recovery
exports
domestic consumption
www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels
• Availability and pricing for the four principals
heating fuels
1. propane
2. heating oil
3. natural gas
4. electricity
• Data relevant to each state available through
clickable map
• Links to resources for each state
• Current week and 3-month weather forecasts
from NOAA
• Every graph can be downloaded as an image
or as a spreadsheet
Winter Heating Fuels Webpage
29 Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
Automating EIA data pulls
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 30
Download & Install Excel plug-in: https://www.eia.gov/opendata/excel/
4a PASTE
4b PRESS
• Energy by rail data
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_railNA_a_EPLLPA_RAIL_mbbl_m.htm
• Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
• Energy Explained: Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=hgls_home
• Drilling Productivity Report | http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
• Winter Heating Fuels Site | www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels/
• Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
• Winter Heating Fuels Site | www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels/
• State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state
31 Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX
Recent EIA HGL-related data products
Thank you
32
Warren Wilczewski 202-586-9320 [email protected]
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis
Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar
November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX