estimation of reduction of using dsm2 ptm and pei - bdo...
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Estimation of reduction of Estimation of reduction of export using DSM2export using DSM2PTM and PEIPTM and PEI
Kijin NamKijin NamDelta Modeling SectionDelta Modeling SectionModeling Support BranchModeling Support BranchBayBay‐‐Delta Office, DWRDelta Office, DWROctober 30October 30thth, 2008, 2008
2008 Fall DSM2 User Group Meeting2008 Fall DSM2 User Group Meeting
10/30/2008 2BDO, DWR
AcknowledgementAcknowledgement
Eli AteljevichEli AteljevichJon ShuJon ShuYiguo LiangYiguo LiangMin YuMin YuLan LiangLan Liang
10/30/2008 3BDO, DWR
POD (Pelagic Organism Decline)POD (Pelagic Organism Decline)
Recent collapse of Recent collapse of abundance of pelagic abundance of pelagic organismorganismDelta SmeltDelta SmeltReasons are still unclearReasons are still unclearExport of SWP/CVP is Export of SWP/CVP is considered as a one of considered as a one of possible causespossible causes
10/30/2008 4BDO, DWR
WangerWanger DecisionDecision
Issued on Dec 14, 2007Issued on Dec 14, 2007Reduce pumping to protect Delta SmeltReduce pumping to protect Delta SmeltBy establishing Old and Middle River flow By establishing Old and Middle River flow criteriacriteria
Temporary measures until new Federal Temporary measures until new Federal Biological Permits are issuedBiological Permits are issued
10/30/2008 5BDO, DWR
How Much Export Must Be Reduced?How Much Export Must Be Reduced?
Finding out the amount of reduction in Finding out the amount of reduction in export to reduce possible particle export to reduce possible particle entrainment is very crucial.entrainment is very crucial.
The best way would beThe best way would beMinimizing entrainment andMinimizing entrainment andMaximizing exportMaximizing export
10/30/2008 6BDO, DWR
Find Out Export Reduction by PEIFind Out Export Reduction by PEI
Set a target Set a target PEIPEI (Potential Entrainment (Potential Entrainment Index)Index)What export would meet a target PEI under What export would meet a target PEI under a given hydrodynamics and particle a given hydrodynamics and particle distribution in the Delta?distribution in the Delta?No analytical solutionNo analytical solutionSolve iteratively by running DSM2Solve iteratively by running DSM2‐‐PTM several PTM several timestimes
An optimization problemAn optimization problem
10/30/2008 7BDO, DWR
ProcedureProcedure
Read historical export
Read water volumes
Read particle distribution
Start with an initial guess of export adjustment
Generate an adjusted historical export DSS file
Run DSM2-PTM
Read PTM resultsCalculate PEI
Meet PEI target?
Set a new export adjustment rate
Start
End
Yes
No
10/30/2008 8BDO, DWR
ImplementationImplementation
The procedure requires reading inputs, The procedure requires reading inputs, adjusting export, running DSM2adjusting export, running DSM2‐‐PTM, PTM, reading output, and solving the reading output, and solving the optimization.optimization.Can be scripted by PythonCan be scripted by PythonVToolsVTools to handle DSS files (input and output to handle DSS files (input and output time series of DSM2time series of DSM2‐‐PTM)PTM)‘‘Brent algorithmBrent algorithm’’ to solve the optimizationto solve the optimization
10/30/2008 9BDO, DWR
Streamlined RunsStreamlined Runs
Combining environmental variables in Combining environmental variables in DSM2 database and python command can DSM2 database and python command can control different settings in DSM2control different settings in DSM2‐‐PTM in a PTM in a batch.batch.
Input file of DSM2DCC_ENV {DCC_SET}
Python code
os.environ[“DCC_SET”] = 1
DSM2 Database
10/30/2008 10BDO, DWR
ApplicationApplication Particle EntrainmentParticle Entrainment
With historical input, Year 2003, late Marchistorical input, Year 2003, late March
Particle loss from each stationInjection Date 2003-03-26Entrainment after 20 days
!( 0.1!( 1
!( 1000 3 6 9 121.5
Miles
± !(
!(!(
!( !(!(!(
!(!(
!(
!(!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
1 % 4 %
0 %
0 %
5 %
4 %
1 % 4 %0 %
1 %
0 %
0 %0 %
0 %
0 %
0 %0 %
0 %0 %
0 %
0 %
73 %
96 %
99 % 57 %
88 %
85 %
93 %
75 %
61 %36 %
10 %
100 %
∑=
×=N
iii RAPPPEI
1
)(
10/30/2008 11BDO, DWR
ApplicationApplication–– Particle DistributionParticle Distribution
Year 2003, late March (1Year 2003, late March (1stst survey)survey)
(From DFG website)
∑=
×=N
iii RAPPPEI
1)(
∑=
××=N
iiiiii VPVPRA
1
)(/)(
10/30/2008 12BDO, DWR
ApplicationApplicationResultResult
Year 2003, late MarchYear 2003, late MarchTarget PEI: 3.27% over Target PEI: 3.27% over 20 days20 days
Historical PEI: 14.51 %Historical PEI: 14.51 %Reduce 67% of historical Reduce 67% of historical export to meet the target export to meet the target PEIPEI
345 TAF to 114 TAF over 20 345 TAF to 114 TAF over 20 daysdays
Late March, Year 2003
0%
5%
10%
15%
Historical Target PEI 3.27%Type
PEI (%)
0
150
300
450
Expo
rt over 2
0 days (TAF)Export
PEI
10/30/2008 13BDO, DWR
ApplicationApplication Year 2003Year 2003
Year 2003
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%3/
26/2
003
4/9/
2003
4/23
/200
3
5/7/
2003
5/21
/200
3
6/4/
2003
6/18
/200
3
Particle Injection Date
PE
I (%
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Expo
rt O
ver 2
0 D
ays
(TA
F)
HistoricalTarget 3.27%PEI
10/30/2008 14BDO, DWR
LimitationsLimitations
PTM simulates particles.PTM simulates particles.Uncertainties and ErrorsUncertainties and ErrorsFish survey, volume, Fish survey, volume, etcetc..
Historical distribution is used even though Historical distribution is used even though particle distribution under new particle distribution under new hydrodynamic conditions can be different.hydrodynamic conditions can be different.Iterative procedure may require Iterative procedure may require considerable computational time.considerable computational time.
10/30/2008 15BDO, DWR
ConclusionsConclusions
Reduction of export under certain Reduction of export under certain hydrodynamic condition and particle hydrodynamic condition and particle distribution can be estimated by PEI and distribution can be estimated by PEI and DSM2DSM2‐‐PTM.PTM.
Impact on SWP exports while meeting Impact on SWP exports while meeting entrainment target can be evaluated with entrainment target can be evaluated with different Delta management strategies, e.g. different Delta management strategies, e.g. barriers.barriers.
10/30/2008 16BDO, DWR
Questions and SuggestionsQuestions and Suggestions
Kijin Nam (Kijin Nam ([email protected]@water.ca.gov))BDO, DWRBDO, DWR
10/30/2008 18BDO, DWR
Potential Entrainment Index (PEI)Potential Entrainment Index (PEI)
DeltaDelta‐‐wide estimation of particle entrainmentwide estimation of particle entrainmentWeightedWeighted‐‐average of entrainmentaverage of entrainment
PEIPEI: Potential Entrainment Index to export: Potential Entrainment Index to exportPPPPii: Percentage of particles entrained from location : Percentage of particles entrained from location ii to exportto exportRARAii: Relative abundance of particles at location : Relative abundance of particles at location ii
PPii:: Number of particles at location Number of particles at location iiVVii: Water volume of location : Water volume of location iiNN: Number of locations: Number of locations
∑=
×=N
iii RAPPPEI
1
)(
∑=
××=N
iiiiii VPVPRA
1)(/)(
Go back
10/30/2008 19BDO, DWR
PEI CalculatorPEI Calculator
Developed by Yiguo LiangDeveloped by Yiguo LiangDerived regression relationships between Derived regression relationships between entrainment and OMR/QWEST at survey stations.entrainment and OMR/QWEST at survey stations.
Fast and easy to useFast and easy to useDoes not consider different hydrodynamicsDoes not consider different hydrodynamics
)QWESTor OMR(ii fPP =
10/30/2008 20BDO, DWR
An Example of EI RegressionAn Example of EI Regression
20-Day Cumulative Percent Entrainment to SWP & CVP, Zone 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8Log (-OMR)
Entr
ainm
ent I
ndex
(%)
Note: Zone 1 includes stations 914, 915, and 918 and entrainment index is weighted average proportional to station-associated volume of water
918
914
915Zone 1
(From Yiguo Liang’s presentation in 2007)
10/30/2008 21BDO, DWR
Adjusting ExportAdjusting Export
Open a DSS file for historical setting and Open a DSS file for historical setting and retrieve export time series.retrieve export time series.Reduce (or increase) daily export time Reduce (or increase) daily export time series by certain percentage.series by certain percentage.Python scripts (Python scripts (VToolsVTools))Check constraint such as pumping capacityCheck constraint such as pumping capacity
Save newlySave newly‐‐adjusted time series into a new adjusted time series into a new DSS file.DSS file.
10/30/2008 22BDO, DWR
Impact of Impact of WangerWanger DecisionDecision
Dec 24 ~ Jan 3: AdultsDec 24 ~ Jan 3: AdultsOMR OMR ≥≥ ‐‐2,000 2,000 cfscfs
Winter: AdultsWinter: AdultsOMR OMR ≥≥ ‐‐5,000 5,000 cfscfs
WinterWinter‐‐Spring: Laval and JuvenileSpring: Laval and Juvenile‐‐750 750 cfscfs ≥≥ OMR OMR ≥≥ ‐‐5,000 5,000 cfscfs
Lost opportunity to capture Delta Flow in Lost opportunity to capture Delta Flow in Winter/SpringWinter/Spring