Estimation of emigration Estimation of emigration flows by using immigration flows by using immigration

figures in receiving countriesfigures in receiving countries

Michel POULAINMichel POULAIN

GéDAP UCLGéDAP UCLBelgiumBelgium

Which types of statistics on Which types of statistics on emigration flows are emigration flows are

needed ?needed ?

1.1. Emigration by Emigration by country of citizenshipcountry of citizenship is is clearly the most needed.clearly the most needed.

2.2. But it may be good to have these But it may be good to have these statistics cross-tabulated by statistics cross-tabulated by country of country of birthbirth

3.3. Emigration by Emigration by country of destinationcountry of destination is is less requested except for example at less requested except for example at EU level for identifying migration flows EU level for identifying migration flows between Member States and between between Member States and between regions.regions.

Which statistical data are Which statistical data are available on emigration available on emigration

flows ?flows ?

Countries may be classified in Countries may be classified in four main groups as follows :four main groups as follows :

• Countries with no data at allCountries with no data at all• Countries producing data that is Countries producing data that is

evidently unreliableevidently unreliable• Countries producing data that are Countries producing data that are

more reliable but only on a clearly more reliable but only on a clearly identified sub-populationidentified sub-population

• Countries producing more reliable Countries producing more reliable data on the whole population.data on the whole population.

Accordingly the situation Accordingly the situation has to be improved for the has to be improved for the

three first groups which three first groups which include more than half of include more than half of

our countriesour countries

..

The possible use of the The possible use of the immigration figure in the immigration figure in the receiving countries (1)receiving countries (1)

This initiative is compulsory for the first This initiative is compulsory for the first group of countries where no data on group of countries where no data on emigration is available. In EU as an emigration is available. In EU as an example for the countries without example for the countries without emigration data, 15 other EU countries emigration data, 15 other EU countries out of 24 are providing appropriate out of 24 are providing appropriate corresponding immigration data.corresponding immigration data.

But this initiative should not suppress the But this initiative should not suppress the basic request to develop an ad hoc data basic request to develop an ad hoc data collection on emigration that will be collection on emigration that will be compulsory for EU MS according the compulsory for EU MS according the forthcoming regulation.forthcoming regulation.

The possible use of the The possible use of the immigration figure in the immigration figure in the receiving countries (2)receiving countries (2)

This is also highly recommended for the second This is also highly recommended for the second group of countries where data on emigration group of countries where data on emigration flows are produced but clearly underestimated.flows are produced but clearly underestimated.

We agree with the fact that in a given country, We agree with the fact that in a given country, emigration flows are systematically less emigration flows are systematically less covered compared to immigration flows.covered compared to immigration flows.

But this does not mean that for migration flow from But this does not mean that for migration flow from country A to country B, the immigration figure country A to country B, the immigration figure in B is always higher than the emigration flow in in B is always higher than the emigration flow in country A. For EU25, in 41% of all intra EU flows, country A. For EU25, in 41% of all intra EU flows, emigration figure is higher than immigration emigration figure is higher than immigration one.one.

The possible use of the The possible use of the immigration figure in the immigration figure in the receiving countries (3)receiving countries (3)

This is also highly recommended for the third group This is also highly recommended for the third group of countries where data on emigration flows are of countries where data on emigration flows are produced on a reliable base only for a given produced on a reliable base only for a given sub-population.sub-population.

In this specific case, detailed metadata should be In this specific case, detailed metadata should be available in order to explain which persons are available in order to explain which persons are included (e.g. only non-EU citizens) and which included (e.g. only non-EU citizens) and which others are excluded (e.g. nationals and other others are excluded (e.g. nationals and other EU-nationals).EU-nationals).

Moreover the immigration data in the receiving Moreover the immigration data in the receiving country should propose data on a separate base country should propose data on a separate base for these different sub-populations.for these different sub-populations.

The possible use of the The possible use of the immigration figure in the immigration figure in the receiving countries (4)receiving countries (4)

Finally this is also recommended for the Finally this is also recommended for the fourth group of countries where data on fourth group of countries where data on emigration flows are considered to be emigration flows are considered to be produced on a reliable base.produced on a reliable base.

Detailed comparisons between immigration Detailed comparisons between immigration and emigration figures concerning the and emigration figures concerning the same flows with some details about same flows with some details about citizenship or country of birth of citizenship or country of birth of migrants may be helpful for improving migrants may be helpful for improving the reliability of the data in both the reliability of the data in both sending and receiving countries.sending and receiving countries.

What kind of immigration data is What kind of immigration data is currently available for that currently available for that

purpose ?purpose ?The situation among the 25 EU The situation among the 25 EU

MSMS

Immigration data with a detailed Immigration data with a detailed list of countries of origin list of countries of origin including all immigrants : 15 including all immigrants : 15 out of 25 EU MSout of 25 EU MS

Immigration data by country of Immigration data by country of citizenship : 19 out of 25 EU citizenship : 19 out of 25 EU MSMS

In order to propose the use of In order to propose the use of emigration data, the emigration data, the

corresponding immigration data corresponding immigration data should beshould be : :

AvailableAvailable with a detailed list of countries of origin with a detailed list of countries of origin (the Guidelines talk about “comprehensive” (the Guidelines talk about “comprehensive” emigration data).emigration data).

ReliableReliable which means that the coverage of the data which means that the coverage of the data collection should be satisfactory for all sub-collection should be satisfactory for all sub-populations (the Guidelines talk about accuracy populations (the Guidelines talk about accuracy of the proposed data). of the proposed data).

ComparableComparable which means using the same which means using the same definition but not necessarily the same data definition but not necessarily the same data collection method (the Guidelines talk about the collection method (the Guidelines talk about the necessity to collect complete metadata).necessity to collect complete metadata).

Feasibility of the proposal Feasibility of the proposal (1)(1)

First the whole proposal is based on First the whole proposal is based on the availability of immigration the availability of immigration data for a complete list of data for a complete list of countries of origin and it is clear countries of origin and it is clear that this type of data is less that this type of data is less available and also slightly less available and also slightly less reliable compared to immigration reliable compared to immigration data by country of citizenship.data by country of citizenship.

Feasibility of the proposal Feasibility of the proposal (2)(2)

The proposal should fit strictly with the UN The proposal should fit strictly with the UN recommendations on long term migrant recommendations on long term migrant by requesting data on the annual by requesting data on the annual number of long term immigrants. This is number of long term immigrants. This is the number of persons entering the the number of persons entering the country with the intention and the right country with the intention and the right to live in the country for at least 12 to live in the country for at least 12 months what is not the same as the months what is not the same as the number of persons living abroad one number of persons living abroad one year ago. year ago.

Feasibility of the proposal Feasibility of the proposal (3)(3)

Table 3 should be the annual number of Table 3 should be the annual number of international immigrations by country of international immigrations by country of previous residence and sex (this is previous residence and sex (this is already collecting the JMQ even by age already collecting the JMQ even by age groups).groups).

Table 4 should propose the same by country Table 4 should propose the same by country of citizenship which is also already of citizenship which is also already collected.collected.

Table 5 proposes the same by country of Table 5 proposes the same by country of birth and this is not yet collected.birth and this is not yet collected.

The “Guidelines” propose to request The “Guidelines” propose to request separate tables by sending country and separate tables by sending country and this will be fully dependant on the this will be fully dependant on the overall organisation of the data overall organisation of the data exchange.exchange.

Feasibility of the proposal Feasibility of the proposal (4)(4)

Tables 1 and 2 refer basically to Tables 1 and 2 refer basically to census data and the question on census data and the question on the country of residence one year the country of residence one year ago. The requested tables are ago. The requested tables are cross-tabulation between country cross-tabulation between country of residence one year ago and of residence one year ago and country of citizenship or country country of citizenship or country of birth.of birth.

This is clearly an proposal of This is clearly an proposal of exchange of data but the purpose exchange of data but the purpose of this is not to propose annual of this is not to propose annual estimates of unknown or estimates of unknown or unreliable emigration flows as unreliable emigration flows as initially proposed.initially proposed.

Feasibility of the proposal Feasibility of the proposal (5)(5)

Tables 6 and 7 are also very Tables 6 and 7 are also very informative tables proposed for informative tables proposed for exchanging data on stocks. But exchanging data on stocks. But this data will be also useful for this data will be also useful for estimating emigration flow if estimating emigration flow if produced annually and produced annually and considering all other components considering all other components of population change that are of population change that are births, deaths, immigrations and births, deaths, immigrations and changes of citizenship by country changes of citizenship by country of citizenship or by country of of citizenship or by country of birth. birth.

Feasibility of the proposal Feasibility of the proposal (6)(6)

The way to implement this data The way to implement this data exchange may be :exchange may be :

- Through direct bilateral Through direct bilateral agreement between pairs of agreement between pairs of countriescountries

- Via international bodies that Via international bodies that would centralise and monitor would centralise and monitor the whole data exchange.the whole data exchange.

C ON C L U S I O N SC ON C L U S I O N S

1.1. First all investigations done First all investigations done alongside this initiative are really alongside this initiative are really impressive and without contest impressive and without contest very useful.very useful.

2.2. All these efforts show the way to All these efforts show the way to analyse data available on analyse data available on migration flows between pairs of migration flows between pairs of countries. And we have found a countries. And we have found a lot of innovative ideas in the lot of innovative ideas in the different reports.different reports.

A pragmatic proposal for A pragmatic proposal for exchange of data should go in exchange of data should go in

three directionsthree directions1.1. Encourage Encourage bilateral exchange of data of data

between pairs of country on flows and between pairs of country on flows and stocks and subsequent in-depth stocks and subsequent in-depth analysis.analysis.

2.2. Develop the Develop the international migration data collection aiming improvements aiming improvements in terms of availability, reliability and in terms of availability, reliability and comparability.comparability.

3.3. Organise a systematic exchange of Organise a systematic exchange of data in the framework of the data in the framework of the forthcoming forthcoming 2010 round census2010 round census on on population living abroad one year ago population living abroad one year ago by country of residence, country of by country of residence, country of citizenship and country of birth.citizenship and country of birth.

A pragmatic proposal A pragmatic proposal for bilateral co-operation for bilateral co-operation

1.1. Unfortunately such an effort may Unfortunately such an effort may only be requested when both only be requested when both countries are producing statistics countries are producing statistics and accordingly both countries and accordingly both countries may take concrete advantages of may take concrete advantages of the work.the work.

2.2. Then what kind of co-operation is Then what kind of co-operation is possible when one of the two possible when one of the two countries does not produce countries does not produce data ?data ?

A pragmatic proposal A pragmatic proposal for bilateral co-operation (1) for bilateral co-operation (1)

• Encourage exchange of data for all what Encourage exchange of data for all what concerns migration flows between the two concerns migration flows between the two countries but also stocks and characteristics countries but also stocks and characteristics of citizens living in the paired country.of citizens living in the paired country.

• In order to improve both immigration and In order to improve both immigration and emigration flows estimation we should emigration flows estimation we should exchange data on both types of flows by exchange data on both types of flows by country of previous residence and country country of previous residence and country of next residence with distinction between of next residence with distinction between citizens of the sending country, citizens of citizens of the sending country, citizens of the receiving country and others. The same the receiving country and others. The same by persons born in the sending country, by persons born in the sending country, persons born in the receiving country or persons born in the receiving country or persons born elsewhere.persons born elsewhere.

A pragmatic proposal A pragmatic proposal for bilateral co-operation (2) for bilateral co-operation (2)

• Compare similar trends in the two countries Compare similar trends in the two countries in order to identify similarities or non-in order to identify similarities or non-similarities.similarities.

• Individual data exchange may even be Individual data exchange may even be recommended if privacy and susceptibility recommended if privacy and susceptibility problems may be solved. problems may be solved.

• In depth investigations should be developed In depth investigations should be developed and discussed in appropriate meetings and and discussed in appropriate meetings and the findings published and disseminated.the findings published and disseminated.

• All this will help to improve the availability, All this will help to improve the availability, reliability and comparability of international reliability and comparability of international migration data.migration data.

A proposal for estimation of A proposal for estimation of emigration flow on a comparative emigration flow on a comparative base when all data from table 3, 4 base when all data from table 3, 4 and 5 will be centralised through and 5 will be centralised through

the JMQthe JMQ

France has no data on emigration and France has no data on emigration and want to rank emigration flows by want to rank emigration flows by relying on immigration figures in relying on immigration figures in the receiving countries. Here are the receiving countries. Here are results : Germany (18.619), UK results : Germany (18.619), UK (16.172), Spain (8.200), Italy (16.172), Spain (8.200), Italy (4.894), the Netherlands (3.084), (4.894), the Netherlands (3.084), Denmark (1.439)… Portugal (552) Denmark (1.439)… Portugal (552)

The only way to clarify the situation is The only way to clarify the situation is by attributing under-registration by attributing under-registration

quotas to immigrations recorded in a quotas to immigrations recorded in a given country whatever the origin given country whatever the origin

country or the country of citizenship country or the country of citizenship or the country of birth.or the country of birth.

Coming back to the proposed ranking Coming back to the proposed ranking of emigration flows in France by of emigration flows in France by country of destination. All will be country of destination. All will be different if we consider that Italy different if we consider that Italy is recording four time less is recording four time less immigrations compared to immigrations compared to Germany and Portugal twenty Germany and Portugal twenty time less…time less…

A starting research project will be A starting research project will be launched by Eurostat next launched by Eurostat next January in order to improve January in order to improve

existing data and to estimate existing data and to estimate missing datamissing data

In conclusion a lot of work In conclusion a lot of work has been done but we has been done but we should be ready for more should be ready for more work in future with the work in future with the real hope to improve the real hope to improve the situationsituation

THANKSTHANKS

AND SOONAND SOON