estimating urban populations in the bronze and iron ages
DESCRIPTION
Estimating Urban Populations in the Bronze and Iron Ages. Dan Pasciuti Department of Sociology Johns Hopkins University. Historical Urbanization Single Indicator Methods. Tertius Chandler and Gerald Fox (1974) 3000 Years of Urban Growth Tertius Chandler (1987) 4000 Years of Urban Growth - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Estimating Urban Populationsin the Bronze and Iron Ages
Dan Pasciuti
Department of Sociology
Johns Hopkins University
Historical UrbanizationSingle Indicator Methods
• Tertius Chandler and Gerald Fox (1974)– 3000 Years of Urban Growth
• Tertius Chandler (1987)– 4000 Years of Urban Growth
• Paul Bairoch (1988)– Cities and Economic Development– La population des villes européennes,
800-1850 : banque de données et analyse sommaire des résultats
• Jan DeVries (1984)– European Urbanization 1500-1800
• Roland Fletcher (1995)– The Limits of Settlement Growth
• George Modelski (2003)– World Cities, -3000 to 2000
Tertius Chandler
• Revised and updated 1987• Based upon resources at UC Berkeley
• The “Multiplier” Method• Total Size Estimates
– Census Data
• Area Estimates• Institutional Factors
– Families, Houses, Militia, Religious Institutions
• Volume of Local Activity• Disasters• Comparisons
» Kaifeng (1642) and Hangchow (1862) to 1930 proportions
Paul Bairoch
• Began from Chandler and Fox (1974)– Expanded database
• European cities by 15% and Latin America by 50%
• Indicators• Urban Area• Residential Space• Density of Occupation
REGION People per Hectare Margin of Error
Cities of Antiquity 150 20-25%
Cities of Islam 250 20-25%
Cities or Europe
(Greek and Roman)
100-115 20%
(1300-1500) 100-115 10%
(1550-1800) 175-190
Jan DeVries
• Examines 379 cities of populations greater than 10,000
• National Census data from 1800 (364)• Additional Cities (15)
• Indicators• Baptisms and Burials• Church attendance• Archives• “General knowledge of the city”
Bairoch vs. De Vries• Separate Databases of Urban Populations
• Comparison of total population of 91 cities with populations over 20,000 (from De Long and Shleifer 1992)
• 0.6 Percent variation between total urban estimations of Europe 1700-1800
Roland Fletcher
• Limits of Settlement Growth• Low Density vs. High Density Settlements
• City Database • Detailed analysis of 21 cities (Library of Congress)• All estimates considered valid• Total urban history
ComparisonsCONSTANTINOPLE (ISTANBUL)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
196
258
319
380
439
500
561
623
684
745
804
865
926
988
1049
111
0
1169
1230
1291
1353
1414
1475
1535
1596
1657
1719
1780
1841
Fletcher Chandler Modelski 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Fletcher)
Populations in thousands
ComparisonsBAGHDAD
Populations in thousands
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
762
765
799
850
885
913
932
935
956
995
1100
1200
1257
1258
1300
1400
1401
1638
1651
1652
1755
1773
1800
1804
1815
1816
1825
1830
1830
1831
1837
1841
1869
Fletcher Chandler Modelski 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Fletcher)
Multiple Indicator Method
• ESTIMATORS– Average Number of People
per Dwelling– Average Number of
Families per Dwelling– Average Number of People
per Family– Size of Dwellings– Average Total Urban
Population Density– Average Urban Residential
Population Density
• INDICATORS– Walled Urban Area– Total Urban Area– Residential Area– Number of Residential
Hearths – Number of Houses– Nonresidential Area– Number of Families
• Average Number of People per Dwelling• 5.5 Taken from Alston (2002) The City in Roman and Byzantine
Egypt
• Matches census data from London (average from 1801 and 1639)
• Average Floor Area per Residential House• 214m2 from Alston (2002)
• Average Number of Families per Dwelling• 1.4 from Alston (2002)
• Supported by London Census data (average of 1.5 from 1639 - 1801)
City Name Avg. Floor Area City Name Avg. Floor Area
Priene 207m2 Abdera 161m2
Kassope 210m2 Dur Eruopos 256m2
Karanis 75.2m2 Olynthus 289m2
Pompeii 271m2 Herculaneum 241m2
House Sizes by Alston (2002)
London
• Average Number of People per Family
• Average Population Density of Urban Area
• Average Population Density of Residential Urban Area
• Residential Area vs. Total Area
Decade London Area**
Chandler Est.*
Bairoch Est.*
Brett-James Est.*
Galley Est.*
Avg. per Hectare
1600 1166 187 200 250 200 214.41
1650 1713 410 350 204.32
1700 2333 550 575 527 575 225.89
Average Population Density of Urban Area
* Population estimates in thousands ** London area in hectares
• Average Number of Families per Dwelling• 1.4 from Alston (2002)
• Supported by London Census data (average of 1.5 from 1639 - 1801)
• Average Population Density of Residential Urban Area• London Census Data (1639 and 1801)
• 490 and 498 per hectare respectively
• Residential Area vs Total Urban Area• London Census Data and Estimations
» 250 Persons per hectare Total Area and 500 Persons per hectare Residential Area
» Historical estimations (Bagnall 1993)
TOTAL URBAN POPULATION
Total Urban Area
Total Residential Area
Dwelling 214 m2
2.0 Hearths per House
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 3.8 per Household
Percent Residential
500 per Hectare
Total Families
Total Hearths
Total Houses
Estimates
Indicators
250 per Hectare
Total Houses
Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate
Estimating the Population of London 1600 - 1800
LONDON 1600
1166 Hectares
571.3 Hectares
Dwelling 214 m2
2.0 Hearths per House
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 4.1 per Household
49% Residential
500 per Hectare
74,748 Families
Total Hearths
53,392 Houses
250 per Hectare
53,392 Houses
293,656 306,467 285,650 291,500
Chandler 187,000Bairoch 200,000Galley 200,000Brett-James 250,000Brett-James 1166 ha Total Area (est from map)
45.8 Houses per Ha
LONDON 1650
1713 Hectares
839.3 Hectares
Dwelling 214 m2
2.0 Hearths per House
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 3.8 per Household
49% Residential
500 per Hectare
116,880 Families
Total Hearths
83,486 Houses
250 per Hectare
83,486 Houses
459,173 444,145 446,650 428,250
Chandler 410,000Brett-James 350,000
Brett-James est 84,000 homes (1681)1713 ha Total Area (est from map)
48.7 Houses per Ha
LONDON 1700
2333 Hectares
1143 Hectares
Dwelling 214 m2
2.0 Hearths per House
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 3.8 per Household
49% Residential
500 per Hectare
149,643 Families
Total Hearths
106,888 Houses
250 per Hectare
106,888 Houses
587,880 568,644 571,500 583,250
Chandler 550,000Bairoch 575,000Galley 575,000Brett-James 527,000
Brett-James 106,888 homes (1708)2333 ha Total Area (est from map)
45.8 Houses per Ha
LONDON 1800
3870 Hectares
1896.3Hectares
Dwelling 214 m2
2.0 Hearths per House
49% Residential
500 per Hectare
Total Hearths
250 per Hectare
948,150 967,500
Chandler 861,000Bairoch 948,000Galley 960,000
Brett-James 3870 ha Total Area (est from map)
45.8 Houses per Ha
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 3.8 per Household
248,114 Families
177,224 Houses 177,224 Houses
974,732 942,832
Estimating the Population of Palermo 1250 - 1500
PALERMO 1276
200 Hectares
98 Hectares
2.0 Hearths per House
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 4.1 per Household
49% Residential
500 per Hectare
12,320 Families
Total Hearths
8,800 Houses
250 per Hectare
8,800 Houses
48,400 50,512 49,000 50,000
Russell 50,000Russell 200 hectares(1266-1285)Beloch 8,800 homes(1276)
Dwelling 214 m2
PALERMO 1347
89.1 Hectares
43.7 Hectares
2.0 Hearths per House
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 4.1 per Household
49% Residential
500 per Hectare
5,715 Families
Total Hearths
4,082 Houses
250 per Hectare
4,082 Houses
22,451 23,431 21,850 22,284
Russell 18,000-20,000Russell 4,082 houses
Dwelling 214 m2
PALERMO 1478
104 Hectares
52 Hectares
2.0 Hearths per House
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 4.1 per Household
49% Residential
500 per Hectare
6,341 Families
9,200 Hearths
4,727 Houses
250 per Hectare
4,530 Houses
26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000
Russell 26,000Russell 26,000 counted pop
Dwelling 214 m2
Estimating the Population of Hermopolis 275 CE
Hermopolis 275 CE
153 Hectares
75 Hectares
2.0 Hearths per House
1.4 Households per House
5.5 per House 4.1 per Household
49% Residential
500 per Hectare
9800 Families
Total Hearths
7,000 Houses
250 per Hectare
7,000 Houses
38,500 40,180 37,500 38,250
D. Delia 37,000Bagnall & Frier 51,380 - 53,200
D. Delia 7,000 estimated HomesBagnall 120 ha Total Area**
Dwelling 107 m2
Limitations and Problems
• Limitations for Bronze Age Estimations• Estimators based upon London• Hermopolis Example
• Limitations for Non West Asian Urban Populations
• Estimators based upon European settlements
• Need for multiple indicators to accurately create estimations
• Without multiple indicators becomes a single indicator method
• Low Density vs. High Density Cities (Fletcher)
ANGKOR WAT
ROME