estimating smarter...not harder using construction records to improve the accuracy, precision, &...
TRANSCRIPT
Estimating Smarter...Not HarderUsing Construction Records to Improve the Accuracy, Precision, & Certainty of Estimating, Bid Analysis, & Post-Construction Analysis
Jeff HisemAdministrator
Joseph Anthony, P.E. Construction Cost Estimator
Ohio Department of Transportation, Office of EstimatingTransportation Estimators Association Annual Conference, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, October 2010
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia
Q. What is Unique about Ohio’s State Flag?A. It’s the Only State Flag That’s Not
Rectangular
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia
Q. Ohio is Home to How Many U.S. Presidents?A. SevenQ. Name ThemA. Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A.
Garfield, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, William H. Taft, and Warren G. Harding
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia
Q. Which Ohio College is One of Only Eight in The Country to Sport a Female Mascot?
A. The University of Akron’s Zippy the Kangaroo(Zippy has a Pouch)
Survey
• How many people in this room collect and use bid histories?
• How many people in this room collect and use construction data for cost-based estimating?
• Why not?
Engineer’s Estimate
Overview
Engineer’s Estimate
Bid AnalysisPost-
Construction Analysis
Two Measures of a “Good” Estimate
“Good” Estimating
PrecisionAccuracy
How Close to a “Fair and Reasonable” Value
Estimating Accuracy
Estimating in a Consistent Manner
Estimating Precision
Accuracy & Precision
Estimating in a “Fair & Reasonable” Manner Consistently
Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With Generic Data …
(Average Accuracy & Reasonable Precision)
Cost-Based Estimating
Cost-Based Estimating
Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With DOT Specific Construction Data…
(Good Accuracy, Good Precision)
Improving Cost-Based Estimating
• Collect Detailed Construction Records– Production Rates– Crew Counts– Equipment Counts
• Create a Construction Database Much Like a Bid History Database to Easily Retrieve This Information
Improving Cost-Based Estimating
• DOT Specific Construction Data– Fair & Reasonable Cost-Based Estimating– Makes Cost-Based Estimating Possible For More Items– Enhance Items That Already Use Cost-Based Estimating– Increases DOT Certainty
ODOT’s Challenges
• ODOT’s Current Software (CMS) Does Not Make Construction Data Readily Available– Read Through Inspector’s Daily Reports– Quality of Reports Varies from Inspector to Inspector
• CMS Software is Being Retired• Switching to SiteManager
Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing Authoritative Reference as Basis
• Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing– Minor Urban Arterial– 13,797 Vehicles / Day
• Production Rate – 352 CY / 8 Hour Day
• Crew– 1 Foreman– 7 Laborers– 3 Equipment Operators
• Equipment– 1 Paver– 1 Steel Roller– 1 Pneumatic Roller
• Total Estimated Cost = $143 / CY
Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing State Developed Estimating Data
• Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing– Minor Urban Arterial– 13,797 Vehicles / Day
• Production Rate – 200 CY / 8 Hour Day
• Crew– 1 Foreman– 4 Laborers– 3 Equipment Operators
• Equipment– 1 Paver– 1 Steel Roller– 1 Pneumatic Roller
• Total Estimated Cost = $149 / CY
Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing DOT Construction Data as Basis
• Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing– Minor Urban Arterial– 13,797 Vehicles / Day
• Production Rate– 504 CY / 8 Hour Day
• Crew– 1 Foreman– 4 Laborers– 1 Equipment Operators
• Equipment– 1 Paver– 1 Steel Roller– 1 Pneumatic Roller
• Total Estimated Cost = $120 / CY
Cost-Based Estimating ExampleSummary of Methods
Means State Developed Data
Construction Data
Production Rate (CY / Day) 352 200 504
Crew(Total Number) 11 8 6
Equipment(Total Number) 3 3 3
Cost($ / CY) $143 $149 $120
The Next Step
Bid Analysis
Engineer’s Estimate
Bid AnalysisPost-
Construction Analysis
Improving Bid Analysis
• DOT Specific Construction Data– Increased Certainty Levels– Single Bidder Analysis– Increased Control of Contractor Profit
Bid AnalysisExample
• Two-Lane Resurfacing• Single Bidder• Engineer’s Estimate: $1.6M• Bid: $2.0M• Difference 25%• Contractor Sends Letter Stating They are Over
Estimate Because of Low Production
Engineer’s Estimate
Bid AnalysisPost-
Construction Analysis
Post-Construction
Analysis
The Next Step
ImprovingPost-Construction Analysis
• DOT Specific Construction Data– Analyze Construction Activities• Production Rates• Labor Hours• Equipment
– Develop Cost-Based Estimating Worksheet Based on Actual DOT Specific Data
– Change Order Analysis– Profit Margin Analysis
Change Order Analysis
• District Requests cost evaluation of change order proposal– Contractor Claims Low Production Rate– Want to Verify Production Rate Based on Actual
Construction Data– Collection of Post-Construction Data and Creation of
Database Would Facilitate Analysis
Profit Margin Analysis
• Profit Margin Analysis Can Only Be Performed if You Use Accurate and Precise Cost-Based Estimating Techniques
• Perform Profit Margin Analysis After a Project Has Been Constructed
Profit Margins Analysis
Material Cost (Known)+ Labor Cost (Known)+ Equipment Cost (Known)+ Profit & Overhead (Unknown)*
Cost Based Estimate (Known)
*1 Equation, 1 Unknown, Can Solve For Unknown
Conclusions
DOT Specific Construction Data Improves Accuracy, Precision, and Certainty of all aspects of the estimating process from the development of the Engineer’s Estimate to Bid Analysis and beyond.