estimating activity durations farrokh alemi, ph.d
TRANSCRIPT
Estimating Activity Estimating Activity DurationsDurations
Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.
Course on Project Management
PurposePurpose
Accuracy mattersAccuracy matters
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Implicit Assumptions Implicit Assumptions RevealedRevealed
More people, less timeMore people, less time
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Source of DataSource of Data
Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studiesTime studies Statistical analysisStatistical analysis
Course on Project Management
Source of DataSource of Data
Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studiesTime studies Statistical analysisStatistical analysis
Course on Project Management
Source of DataSource of Data
Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studiesTime studies
Stop motion studiesStop motion studies DiaryDiary
Statistical analysisStatistical analysis
Course on Project Management
Source of DataSource of Data
Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studiesTime studies Statistical analysisStatistical analysis
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Assessing Experts OpinionsAssessing Experts Opinions
AssumptionsAssumptions Estimate, talk and estimateEstimate, talk and estimate DelphiDelphi
Course on Project Management
Assessing Experts OpinionsAssessing Experts Opinions
AssumptionsAssumptions Estimate, talk and estimateEstimate, talk and estimate DelphiDelphi
Course on Project Management
Assessing Experts OpinionsAssessing Experts Opinions
AssumptionsAssumptions Estimate, talk and estimateEstimate, talk and estimate DelphiDelphi
Course on Project Management
Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Estimate
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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate Thanks for
agreeing to help us…please write
down …
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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate
Responses from different expert are collected and displayed on the
flip chart without attribution
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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate This is great.
Lets discuss why it could take a
long time…
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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate
Well it depends on the
experience of the person
configuring the system
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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate
And it also depends on how cooperative the clinicians are.
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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate
Discussion of Assumptions
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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate You have said …
please re-estimate…
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PERTPERT
OptimisticOptimistic Realistic Realistic PessimisticPessimistic
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PERTPERT
OptimisticOptimistic Realistic Realistic PessimisticPessimistic
6
estimate Optimisticestimate Realistic4estimate cPessimistiduration Expected
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PERT DialoguePERT Dialogue
How long do you think it would
take to send 100 surveys out?
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PERT DialoguePERT Dialogue
It all depends. I have seen people do it in 6 hours and I have seen others do it in 1 hour.
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PERT DialoguePERT Dialogue
But given what I know about your operations
I think it will take 2 hours.
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PERT DialoguePERT Dialogue
5.26
15
6
1246duration Expected
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT method can increase accuracy of method can increase accuracy of estimate of duration of activities estimate of duration of activities