equity strategist - minimum variance solutions

10
This material does not constitute investment advice and should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Q.M.S Advisors tel: 078 922 08 77 e-mail: [email protected] website: www.qmsadv.com Equity Solutions – Euro Stoxx 50 Index October 2012 Equity Strategist Minimum Volatility

Upload: qms-advisors

Post on 06-May-2015

205 views

Category:

Economy & Finance


1 download

DESCRIPTION

Equity Strategist, Minimum Variance Solutions

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

Pefp iTqbofTh albp klq Wlkpqfqrqb fksbpqibkq TasfWb Tka pelrha klq Vb sfbtba Tp T Wroobkq lo mTpq obWliibkaTqflk lo T plhfWfqTqflk lc Tk lccbo ql Vrv lo pbhh Tkv pbWrofqfbp lo ql Talmq Tkv fksbpqibkq pqoTqbdv*

A...E Ssdolnotel: 078 922 08 77

e-mail: [email protected]

website: www.qmsadv.com

Equity Solutions – Euro Stoxx 50 Index October 2012

!mrdqt EqnQqVadoq.didgrg MleQqdedqt

Page 2: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb -

Ø Delivering the best risk/return trade-of: Ø Since the 1960s, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) brought an elegant solution

to the optimization problem, arguing that the most efficient portfolio is necessarily a

broad market portfolio weighted by market capitalization of stocks.

Ø This corresponds to performing mean-variance optimization with market implied

forecasts of risk and returns.

Ø Market-capitalization weighted portfolioØ The only portfolio that is truly "passive" in its objective on the mean-variance

frontier is the Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP).

Ø MVP is an optimal portfolio that is constructed by minimizing portfolio variance. The

minimum variance construction does not use stocks' expected returns as inputs, and

relies only on the covariance matrix.

Ø Risk-efficient passive equity allocation:Ø There is a growing body of evidence of outsized ex-post risk-adjusted performance

of minimum variance portfolios.

=keTkWfkd Elkd*Pboi Lloqclhfl LbocloiTkWb tefhb ;fifkfpefkd =nrfqv MfpgpDI8G

Low Volatility StrategyRisk Efficiency in Passive Investing

Page 3: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb .

Attractive historical statistical features

Ø The low volatility strategy offers attractive statistical features whether considered on a

standalone or total portfolio basis, and this despite the extreme market environment

considered in our analysis.

Source: Bloomberg, QMS Advisors

Low Volatility StrategyRisk Efficiency in Passive Investing

Brnloqltt 2- OL %!

Hls RlhTqfhfqu MqnTqbdu %!

CfoqlnfWTh Lbqrnko (5)46/% /)22-%CfoqlnfWTh RlhTqfhfqu /4)-5% /-)06%CfoqlnfWTh Lbqrnko*Lfog LTqfl (-)0/14 -)./2-JTtfiri :nTsalsk (3/)42% (13)40%CfoqlnfWTh Mgbskboo (.).3 (.)2-CfoqlnfWTh Ernqlofo 0)46 3)34DTnmrb(8bnT /15 341DTnmrb(8bnT7 9ef(Oboq -)66 -)--

8Toba lk CfoqlnfWTh Sbbghu :TqT cnli :bWbiVbn /6qe /--3 ql qeb KWqlVbn ./qe /-./

Page 4: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb 0

Low Volatility StrategyPerformance

:Tpba lk BfpqlofWTh ;TqT coli ;bW .6qe .,,3 ql IWq -.pq .,-.

05*1,

--0*20

*.,

,

.,

1,

3,

5,

-,,

-.,

-1,

.6+-.+,3 .6+,3+,4 .6+-.+,4 .6+,3+,5 .6+-.+,5 .6+,3+,6 .6+-.+,6 .6+,3+-, .6+-.+-, .6+,3+-- .6+-.+-- .6+,3+-.

Efp

qlofW

Th L

bocl

oiTk

Wb )

9Tp

b -,

, lk

:bW

biVb

o .1q

e .,

,1

LbocloiTkWb ;fccbobkqfTh7 Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %! LbocloiTkWb7 =rolpqluu 2, PM %!

LbocloiTkWb7 Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %!

Page 5: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb 1

Low Volatility StrategySignificantly Reduced Volatility

:Tpba lk BfpqlofWTh ;TqT coli ;bW .6qe .,,3 ql IWq -.pq .,-.

2%

-,%

-2%

.,%

.2%

0,%

02%

1,%

12%

2,%,1

+,-+

.,,5

,1+,

0+.,

,5

,1+,

2+.,

,5

,1+,

4+.,

,5

,1+,

6+.,

,5

,1+-

-+.,

,5

,1+,

-+.,

,6

,1+,

0+.,

,6

,1+,

2+.,

,6

,1+,

4+.,

,6

,1+,

6+.,

,6

,1+-

-+.,

,6

,1+,

-+.,

-,

,1+,

0+.,

-,

,1+,

2+.,

-,

,1+,

4+.,

-,

,1+,

6+.,

-,

,1+-

-+.,

-,

,1+,

-+.,

--

,1+,

0+.,

--

,1+,

2+.,

--

,1+,

4+.,

--

,1+,

6+.,

--

,1+-

-+.,

--

,1+,

-+.,

-.

,1+,

0+.,

-.

,1+,

2+.,

-.

,1+,

4+.,

-.

,1+,

6+.,

-.

RlhT

qfhfqv

!0.

Sbb

gp M

lhhfk

d fk

% m

*T*%

*02%

*0,%

*.2%

*.,%

*-2%

*-,%

*2%

,%

RlhT

qfhfqv

:fcc

bobk

qfTh !

fk %

( fks

boqb

a pW

Thb%

RlhTqfhfqv ;fccbobkqfTh7 Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %! RlhTqfhfqv Mlhhfkd 2. Sbbgp! =rolpqluu 2, PM %!

RlhTqfhfqv Mlhhfkd 2. Sbbgp! Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %!

Page 6: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb 2

Low Volatility StrategyConsistently Higher Information Ratios

:Tpba lk BfpqlofWTh ;TqT coli ;bW .6qe .,,3 ql IWq -.pq .,-.

*.

*-

,

-

.

0

1.5

+-.+

.,,4

.5+,

.+.,

,5

.5+,

1+.,

,5

.5+,

3+.,

,5

.5+,

5+.,

,5

.5+-

,+.,

,5

.5+-

.+.,

,5

.5+,

.+.,

,6

.5+,

1+.,

,6

.5+,

3+.,

,6

.5+,

5+.,

,6

.5+-

,+.,

,6

.5+-

.+.,

,6

.5+,

.+.,

-,

.5+,

1+.,

-,

.5+,

3+.,

-,

.5+,

5+.,

-,

.5+-

,+.,

-,

.5+-

.+.,

-,

.5+,

.+.,

--

.5+,

1+.,

--

.5+,

3+.,

--

.5+,

5+.,

--

.5+-

,+.,

--

.5+-

.+.,

--

.5+,

.+.,

-.

.5+,

1+.,

-.

.5+,

3+.,

-.

.5+,

5+.,

-.

Fkcl

oiTq

flk

MTq

fl !0

. S

bbgp

Mlh

hfkd%

,

,+.

,+1

,+3

,+5

-

-+.

Fkcl

oiTq

flk

MTq

fl :

fccbo

bkqfT

h !0.

Sbb

gp M

lhhfk

d%

DkcloiTqflk MTqfl ;fccbobkqfTh7 Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %! DkcloiTqflk MTqfl7 =rolpqluu 2, PM %! DkcloiTqflk MTqfl7 Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %!

Page 7: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb 3

Low Volatility StrategyReduced Drawdown Risks

:Tpba lk BfpqlofWTh ;TqT coli ;bW .6qe .,,3 ql IWq -.pq .,-.

*4,%

*3,%

*2,%

*1,%

*0,%

*.,%

*-,%

,%.6

+-.+

.,,3

.5+,

.+.,

,4

.6+,

1+.,

,4

.6+,

3+.,

,4

.6+,

5+.,

,4

.6+-

,+.,

,4

.6+-

.+.,

,4

.6+,

.+.,

,5

.6+,

1+.,

,5

.6+,

3+.,

,5

.6+,

5+.,

,5

.6+-

,+.,

,5

.6+-

.+.,

,5

.5+,

.+.,

,6

.6+,

1+.,

,6

.6+,

3+.,

,6

.6+,

5+.,

,6

.6+-

,+.,

,6

.6+-

.+.,

,6

.5+,

.+.,

-,

.6+,

1+.,

-,

.6+,

3+.,

-,

.6+,

5+.,

-,

.6+-

,+.,

-,

.6+-

.+.,

-,

.5+,

.+.,

--

.6+,

1+.,

--

.6+,

3+.,

--

.6+,

5+.,

--

.6+-

,+.,

--

.6+-

.+.,

--

.6+,

.+.,

-.

.6+,

1+.,

-.

.6+,

3+.,

-.

.6+,

5+.,

-.

HTu

firi

:oT

tal

tk

coli

:bW

biVb

o .6q

e .,

,1 !

fk %

%

*.%

5%

-5%

.5%

05%

15%

25%

H* :

oTt

alt

k :

fccbo

bkqfT

h !fk

%%

HTu+ ;oTtaltk ;fccbobkqfTh7 Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %! HTufiri ;oTtaltk7 =rolpqluu 2, PM %!

HTufiri ;oTtaltk7 Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %!

Page 8: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb 4

Low Volatility StrategyComparative Distribution of Weekly Returns

:Tpba lk BfpqlofWTh ;TqT coli ;bW .6qe .,,3 ql IWq -.pq .,-.

,%

2%

-,%

-2%

.,%

.2%

*.,% *-5% *-3% *-1% *-.% *-,% *5% *3% *1% *.% ,% .% 1% 3% 5% -,% -.% -1% -3% -5% .,% ..%

Boxn

rbkW

b !k

liVo

b a

lVpb

osTq

flkp

%

,%

-,%

.,%

0,%

1,%

2,%

3,%

4,%

5,%

6,%

-,,%

Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %! =rolpqluu 2, PM %! =rolpqluu 2, PM %! Elt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdv %!

Page 9: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb 5

Low Volatility StrategyRelative Weekly Distribution of Returns

:Tpba lk BfpqlofWTh ;TqT coli ;bW .6qe .,,3 ql IWq -.pq .,-.v 9 ,+4.2u ( ,+,,.M. 9 ,+6.5

*0,%

*.2%

*.,%

*-2%

*-,%

*2%

,%

2%

-,%

-2%

*0,% *.2% *.,% *-2% *-,% *2% ,% 2% -,% -2%

Arolpqluu 0, PM !'%

Glt

Rlh

Tqfhf

qv O

qoTq

bdv

!'%

Page 10: Equity Strategist - Minimum Variance Solutions

A...E Ssdolno | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] | website: www.qmsadv.com LTdb 6

Ø Glt RlhTqfhfqv OqoTqbdfbp lccbo T pfimhb( qoTkpmTobkq Tka efdehvWrpqlifwTVhb tTv ql qTm lkb lc qeb ilpq obWldkfwba Tka alWribkqba plroWb lc ThmeT7Ø Pefp mTppfsb pqoTqbdv rqfhfwbp T pvpqbiTqfW TmmolTWe qeTq albp klq obhv lk

clobWTpqp lc pqlWg obqrokp Tka rpbp Tp fkmrq lkhv qeb WlsTofTkWb iTqofu+ Ø Peb mloqclhfl obprhqfkd coli ifkfiri sTofTkWb lmqfifwTqflk eTp qeb piThhbpq

bu*Tkqb slhTqfhfqv) Tka buefVfqp T pfdkfcfWTkq obarWqflk fk bu*mlpq ofpg Tp tbhh) tfqe obpmbWq ql qeb pbhbWqba VbkWeiTogØ BfpqlofWThhv qeb pqoTqbdv eTp molarWba pfdkfcfWTkqhv efdebo obqrokp tfqe

hltbo obThfwba slhTqfhfqv tebk WlimToba ql fqp VbkWeiTog8 obprhqfkd fk TqqoTWqfsb OeTomb oTqflp+

Ø =imfofWTh bsfabkWb peltp qeTq qeb abpfdk lc qeb lmqfifwTqflk molVhbi mhTvp T irWe dobTqbo olhb tebk Tpprifkd elildbkblrp obqrok bpqfiTqbp+ Pefp fk qrok obprhqp fk ThhlWTqflkp qeTq iTfkqTfk qebfo molifpb7 buefVfqfkd hltbo ofpg fk qeb crqrob tefhb dfsfkd crhh bumlprob ql qeb bnrfqv iTogbq

Low Volatility StrategyA Simple Approach to Higher Portfolio Efficiency