Episode 3 / CAATS II joint dissemination event Combining Techniques:

Expert Groups, Gaming and Modelling

Pablo Sánchez-EscalonillaAENAEpisode 3

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

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Overview

• Gaming and traditional modelling• Modelling in EP3• Combining gaming and modelling• EP3 Exercises• Example• Lessons Learnt

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Traditional Modelling

GamingTraditional Modelling

Is this enough for the quantitative assessment of the SESAR ConOps?

Clarification of the concept

Qualitative Assessment of processes feasibility

Quantitative Assessment

Scale and completeness of simulated environment

Quantification of Capacity and Efficiency

Wide area and large coverage

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EP3 Modelling

(Two of the) Areas of Research

Quantitative assessment of performances

At network-wide level

For concepts at an early stage of maturity

Quantitative assessment of CDM processes

Indicators to measure the complexity of these processes

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Quantitative assessment of ECAC-wide performances

(Macro) model to concentrate on a macroscopic scale

Modelling of the network with heterogeneous nodes with capacity restrictions

Uncertainty of ATM system

Outcome:

Operational KPAs (capacity, efficiency and predictability) at network level

Identification of trade-offs, bottlenecks and network effect

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EP3 Modelling

Limited ability to capture detailed behaviour

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Quantitative assessment of CDM processes

(Micro) model to concentrate on a microscopic scale

Modelling of actors, roles and responsibilities with fast-time simulations based on discrete events

Extrapolation of processes to a wide context and multiple scenarios

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EP3 Modelling

High level of detail is required

Outcome:

Indicators of Process Complexity (e.g. Number of negotiations)

Identification of closed-loop processes, bottlenecks and overloaded actors

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EXPERT GROUP

Combining TechniquesEp

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MACROMODEL

LOCAL ASSESSMENT

ECAC WIDE ASSESSMENT

MICROMODEL

(FTS)

MACROMODEL

CONCEPT MATURITY

PAPER-BASED

GAMING

LOCAL PROCESSES FEASIBILITY

PLATFORM-

BASED GAMING

MICROMODELGLOBAL PROCESSES FEASIBILITY

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EP3 Exercises

Gaming and Modelling in EP3

Collaborative Planning Phases (Network Planning)Business Trajectory Management and Dynamic DCB

DARTIS (Platform-Based Gaming)

PROMAS (CDM Processes)

ATM NEMMO (ECAC-Wide Network Performances)

En-route PhaseQueue, Trajectory and Separation Management

Paper-Based Gaming

PROMAS (CDM Processes)

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FAB

DCB Queue active horizon

DCB Queue active planning limit

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Example: Dynamic DCB

AMAN Horizon

Apt

40min

1h20min

3h10

2h1h55

DCB measure is provided at congested “area”Apt

Apt

Two planning layers:Local AMAN process managing CTAsA pre-sequencing DCB process issuing TTAs at FAB level

Airspace users decide on how to address the time constraints

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Example: Dynamic DCBEp

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Definition of the Operational scenario

Assumptions (e.g. time horizons, TTA allocation strategies)

Expert Group

Is the process feasible?

Are the procedures acceptable from an airspace user point of view?

Platform-based Gaming

In a wider context…

Process Management Indicators? (e.g. Number of negotiations)

Any bottleneck in the process?

Processes Modelling

In a 24-hour ECAC scenario…

ECAC Performance Indicators? (e.g. Reduction of average departure delay)

Performances Modelling

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Lessons Learnt

• Added value on combining gaming and modelling Doubts about the need of fully integrated exercises using so

many platforms/simulators

• For immature concepts, no easy way to assess the realism/correctness of the models and thus to ensure credibility of the results Rolling process with expert group support

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