episode 3 / caats ii joint dissemination event

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Episode 3 / CAATS II joint dissemination event Combining Techniques: Expert Groups, Fast-Time Simulation and Prototyping Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event Hugo de Jonge NLR Episode 3 Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

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Episode 3 / CAATS II joint dissemination event. Combining Techniques: Expert Groups, Fast-Time Simulation and Prototyping. Episode 3 - CAATS II Final Dissemination Event. Hugo de Jonge NLR Episode 3. Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009. Overview. (Some) applied techniques and their benefits - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Episode 3 / CAATS II joint dissemination event

Combining Techniques:Expert Groups, Fast-Time Simulation

and Prototyping

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Hugo de JongeNLREpisode 3

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

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Overview

• (Some) applied techniques and their benefits Expert Groups FTS Prototyping

• Combining these techniques• Relationship to exercises in Episode 3• Example results• Experience and value of combining techniques

Brussels, 13 & 14 Oct 2009

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Applied techniques and benefits

• Expert Group To discuss high-level and conceptual ideas Operational aspects and feasibility Benefits, priorities, blocking points Agreement, operational participation and portability The role of different experiments

- But no “validated” agreements

• Fast-Time Simulation (FTS) Wide area: Airport, Region, ECAC-wide Large coverage: 24 hours, 10.000nds of flights Quantification, with focus on: Capacity and Efficiency Reproducible

- But simple modelling, adopting validated ops mechanisms

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Applied techniques and benefits

• Prototyping Human in the loop, small-scale Focus on feasibility, and operational acceptance Good perception of workload, and procedural details Good modelling of detailed procedures

But:- Simulation is non-deterministic and gives low statistics- Simulation is small-scale and it is difficult to address a

complete scenario

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Combining these techniques

Relevant results by iteration:

Ideassuggestionsacceptability

Ideassuggestionsacceptability

Large-scaledemo/quantifiedbenefits

Concept

Large-scale operations Operations in detail

Operationalfeasibility/clarification of role ofhuman in the loop

Filtering a scenario in detailgiving support in context of operations (e.g. full TMA + airport to 1 runway, 2 sectors)

Being specific on how to model a procedure in details of its operational context, (e.g. time and effort to perform datalink exchange)

Expert Group

PrototypingFTS

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In Episode 3

• Examples of combining techniques in Episode 3:

ECAC-wide: Macro model to accept FTS and Prototyping results and to extrapolate results on ECAC-wide applicability

Support to Gaming: Airport Gaming and use of ECAC-wide model to feed Gaming with solutions solving bottlenecks by DCB

En-route - TMA coupling: Prototyping of ATM En-route control in support of managed arrival flows, and fast-time simulation of Multi-Airport flows from en-route (200NM out) to landing

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Expert Group, example

Feeding FTS: By Story Board, analysing critical parts of concept By dimensioning the operations in time and space By assumptions

Assumptions: Airspace utilisation: With

low variability there is control on the amount of airspace needed to accomplish the sequencing, without ......

Capacity: Without ensured low variability there will be dips in demand resulting in loss of capacity ......

......

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Fast-Time Simulation, example

Average fuel consumption, all 4 airports, 2008

870

793

843

762828

738

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Baseline CDA

Fu

el

(in

kg

)

500

600

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800

900

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Operational DCB Unconstrained

ETMA-entry

FTS: 24-hours scenarios, comparing quite a lot of conditions Quantitative results Modelling, simulating and measuring

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Prototyping, example

Prototyping: 1-2 hours scenario, studying operations in detail results on feasibility of ATM support tools results on feasibility Human Machine Interface (HMI) results on feasibility of operational procedures detailed scenario, perform simulation, analyse results

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Feed-back, FTS example

FTS applying prototyping results: Advanced CDA procedure (ACDA) Feasibility of merge procedure Feasibility of control procedures and separation Sequencing accuracy at Controlled Time of Arrival (CTA)

FTS outputs: Quantitative results

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Conclusions

Expert Group: New valuable experience with low effort

and involvement:- High diversity of experts- Intensive discussions and concrete - Inputs in support of experiments- Support portability of concept,

experiments and results

FTS, successful in:- Large-scale simulations- Quantified benefits under “ideal” conditions (upper-bound values)- Assessment of acceptance of achievable benefits (e.g. fuel gains)

Prototyping, successful in:- Human-in-the-loop, small-scale simulations- Assessment of acceptance of operational procedures (e.g. workload and procedures)

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Thank you, any questions?