발표자료 고원일 20100831 [호환 모드] · 16.090 tu nu nu eu du fuel pwr sf pwr sf candu...
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![Page 1: 발표자료 고원일 20100831 [호환 모드] · 16.090 tU NU NU EU DU Fuel PWR SF PWR SF CANDU (29.0%) Interim Storage Disposal 2.558 tHM DUPIC Fuel 2.469 tHM DUPIC SF ... 0.05](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071020/5fd4080930dd724a78020fb0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
선진핵연료주기 시스템 분석
2010. 8. 31
고 원 일
제9회 방사선안전심포지움, 2010년 8월 31일, 서울교육문화회관
- 핵연료주기별 경제성분석 -
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핵연료주기 정책결정의 함의
인적 자원 화폐자원 대중수용성 에너지 사고광범위한
경제적 영향
변환 농축연료
성형가공
선행 : 원료물질을 일차연료로 변환 후행 : 사용후핵연료와 최종폐기물 관리
첨단원자로에서의TRUs 재활용
고준위폐기물
운전중 배출 사고시 배출 폐기물 처분
사용후핵연료
중저준위폐기물
사용후핵연료/고준위폐기물
에너지생산
재순환
중간저장 재처리
밀봉 및 포장
중저준위폐기물
지 구
사 회
원료물질 채광
에너지안보 핵확산위험
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핵연료주기 시스템 분석 절차
Definition of System
Alternatives of NFCs
Selection of Evaluation Criteria
Material Flow
Analysis for Each Criteria
Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis
Integration Evaluation(weighting factors)
Economics, ER, PR, etc.
System-wise or Equilibriumevaluation boundary, etc.
Open cycle, Close cycle, etc.
Computer code
Derive the best option (MAUT, AHP, Delphi, etc.)
Uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulation
Optimum NFC
Economics
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사용후핵연료주기 특성
우라늄235 (10kg)우라늄236 (6kg)
핵분열생성물 (46kg)
플루토늄 (11kg)
MA (1kg)
우라늄238 (926kg)
U235 (45kg)
U238 (955kg)
(4.5% 농축우라늄)
약 300 여종의 핵종 발생-고방열 : Cs, Sr-가스형태 : H-3, l, Kr 등-Tc, Sm, Nd 등
Pu의 내역
MA의 내역
그대로
변환 그대로
연소
변환 연소
그대로
그대로
그대로
변환
10
35
26
926 926
610
6
11
14
111
1,000 kg 1,000 kg
463
선진핵연료주기 à 사용후핵연료에 포함된 핵종들의 특성을 고려한 관리에 초점
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핵연료주기 선정 (평형주기)
PWR
SFR
CANDU
(직접처분주기, “PWR-OT”)
PWR
(열중성자 재활용 주기. “PWR-MOX”)
PWR PWR
(파이로-SFR 핵연료주기, “Pyro-SFR”)
PWR
lHLW
TRU
SF SF
HLW
SF MOX
SF
InterimStorage Disposal Disposal
Pyro/Metal Fuel
Repro./MOX Fab.
Disposal
DUPIC Fab.
SF
(DUPIC 핵연료주기, “DUPIC”)
HLW
Disposal
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참고 원자로 특성
Reactor Parameters PWR CANDU SFR
Electric power (MWe)Thermal efficiency (%)Thermal power (MWt)
Load factorCycle length (Full Power Day)
Total HM per core (tHM)No. of batches
Conversion ratio
1,00034.23
2,921.40.8290693–
71333
2,160.60.9–
84.72––
60039.4
1,522.80.8533220.3
60.6067
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물질흐름 계산을 위한 가정사항
Reactor OT DUPIC PWR-MOX Pyro-SFR
PWR(UO2)
ENU: 0.71% U-235DU: 0.25 % U-235Fuel:4.5% U-235
NU: 0.71% U-235DU: 0.25 % U-235Fuel: 3.5% U-235
NU: 0.71% U-235DU: 0.25 % U-235Pro:4.5% U-235
NU: 0.71% U-235DU: 0.25 % U-235Pro:4.5% U-235
FUO2 burnup: 55GWd/tHM
UO2 burnup: 35 GWd/tHMLoss : 0.1 %
UO2 burnup: 55 GWd/tHM
UO2 burnup: 55GWd/tHM
R -OREXLoss: 0.1 %Major Waste : Kr, Xe, Cs
PUREXLoss : 0.1 %Major Waste : MA, FP
PyroprocessingLoss : 0.1 %
CANDU F -
Burn-up: 7.5 GWd/tHMCom.: Pu content :0.92 %, Pu fissile : 68 % - -
PWR(MOX) F - -
MOX Burnup: 55 GWd/tHMCom.: Pu content : 8 %, Loss : 0.1 %
-
SFRF - - -
Metal AcZrBurnup: 121 GWd/tHMCom.: DU, Pu: 33.8 %, MA: 5.6 %
R - - - PyroprocessingLoss : 0.1 %
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Actinides Contained in the Spent Fuels
Spent Fuel Actinide Kg/TWh Ratio(%)
PWR SF(Once-through Cycle)
U 1,941.2 98.51Pu 25.0 1.27
MA 4.3 0.22
DUPIC SF(DUPIC Recycling)
U 2,445.5 99.05Pu 20.2 0.82
MA 3.2 0.13
MOX SF(Thermal Recycling)
U 229.2 93.44Pu 14.0 5.71
MA 2.1 0.86
SFR SF(Pyro-SFR Recycling)
U 36.3 71.46Pu 12.9 25.39
MA 1.6 3.15
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핵연주기별 물질 흐름 I
Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel
FabricationPWR
(100%)Interim Storage
20.444 tU 20.424 tU 2.215 tU 2.213 tU 2.088 tHM
Disposal
2.088 tHM18.209 tU
NU NU EU
DU
Fuel PWRSF
PWRSF
Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel
FabricationPWR
(71.0%)Interim Storage
18.769 tU 18.750 tU 2.660 tU 2.657 tU 2.561 tHM
DUPIC
2.561 tHM16.090 tU
NU NU EU
DU
Fuel PWRSF
PWRSF
CANDU(29.0%)
Interim StorageDisposal
2.558 tHM
DUPICFuel
2.469 tHM
DUPICSF
2.469 tHM
DUPICSF
PWR-OT (based on 1 TWh)
DUPIC (based on 1 TWh)
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핵연주기별 물질 흐름 II
PWR-MOX (based on 1 TWh)
Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel
FabricationPWR
(87.7%)Interim Storage
17.921 tU 17.903 tU 1.942 tU 1.940 tU 1.831 tHM
PUREX
1.831 tHM15.458 tU
NU NU EU
DU
Fuel PWRSF
PWRSF
PWR(12.3%)
Interim StorageDisposal
0.273 tHM
MOXFuel
0.259 tHM
MOXSF
0.259 tHM
MOXSF
MOX fuelFabrication
21.879 kg
Pu
0.002 tHM HLW
0.252 tU
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핵연주기별 물질 흐름 III
Pyro-SFR (based on 1 TWh)
Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel
FabricationPWR
(47.8%)Interim Storage
12.342 tU 12.330 tU 1.337 tU 1.336 tU 1.261 tHM
Pyro-processing
1.261 tHM10.992 tU
NU NU EU
DU
Fuel PWRSF
PWRSF
SFR(52.2%)
Pyro-processingDisposal
0.076 tHM
SFRFuel
0.068 tHM
SFRSF
0.05 kg SFR fuelFabrication
0.018 t
TRU
1.26 kg HLW
1.113 tU
0.041 tU0.017 t TRU
HLW
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단위 비용
Cost items Units Low Nominal High Reference
Uranium $/kgU 25 120 354 Spot price of 08/2010& OECD 2006
Conversion $/kgU 5 10 15 Spot price of 08/2010& OECD 2006
Enrichment $/SWU 80 153 120 Spot price of 08/2010& OECD 2006
Reprocessing PUREX $/kgHM 700 800 900 ADS&FR Study(2002)Pyro-UO2 $/kgHM 500 1,500 2,500 AFCCB (2008)
Fuel Fabrication
UO2 Fuel $/kgHM 200 240 300 AFCCB (2008)&NEA (2001)
MOX Fuel $/kgHM 2,000 3,200 4,000 AFCCB (2008)
DUPIC Fuel $/kgHM 500 700 900 Korean DUPIC Study (2006)
Pyro. & SFR Metal Fuel Fab. $/kgHM 2,500 5,000 7,500 AFCCB (2008)
Long-term storageDepleted U $/kgHM 2.6 3.6 4.6 ADS&FR Study(2002)
Reprocessed U $/kgHM 2.6 3.6 40.0 ADS&FR Study(2002)
Transport & Storage
DUPIC SF $/kgHM 50 100 250 Own estimateUO2 SF $/kgHM 105 125 145 OECD/NEA (2006)
MOX SF $/kgHM 145 218 580 OECD/NEA (2006)Decay storage $/kgIHM 44 69 174 Own estimate
HLW $/m3 80,060 120,090 200,240 OECD/NEA (2006)
Disposal Packaging
UO2 SF $/kg 100 200 350 OECD/NEA (2006)DUPIC SF $/kg 80 150 250 OECD/NEA (2006)MOX SF $/kg 200 400 700 OECD/NEA (2006)
HLW of PUREX $/m3 100,000 200,000 400,000 OECD/NEA (2006)HLW of Others $/m3 100,000 200,000 400,000 OECD/NEA (2006)
Underground Cost $/m3 600 1,200 2,000 OECD/NEA (2006)
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Lead and lag Time
Fuel cycleprocess
Lead/lag time (month)
Lead time (month) Purchase 21Conversion 18Enrichment 12Fabrication 6
Lag time (month) Interim Storage 18Reprocessing 78Final Disposal 480
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Fuel Cycle Costs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
OT PWR-MOX DUPIC Pyro-S FRFuel cycle
RC
OST
(%)
U, Convers ion, E nrichment S tandard fuel fabrication S tandard Reprocess ing
Transport &S torage Advanced fuel fabrication Waste management
• OT : 6.42 mills/kWh• DUPIC : 8.16 mills/kWh• PWR-MOX : 8.10 mils/kWh• Pyro-SFR : 7.68 mills/kWh
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불확실성 분석
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 180.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Prob
abilit
y di
strib
utio
n
Levelized cost of electricity (mills/kwh)
Pyro-SFR DUPIC PWR-MOX OT
OT DUPIC PWR-MOX Pyro-SFR
Min 3.98 5.78 6.09 4.65
Max 12.59 14.39 13.72 13.21
Mean 7.71 9.50 9.48 8.71
SD 1.58 1.47 1.39 1.19
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민감도분석
0
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.11
0.99
Underground Cost
Depleted U
SF_UO2 Tran
SF_UO2 Tran
Conversion
UO2 Fuel
Enrichment
Uranium
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
00000.010.010.010.020.030.03
0.050.08
0.110.99
Underground Cost HLW from PUREX
SF_MOX Packaging HLW
Depleted U Reprocessed U SF_UO2 Tran
SF_MOX Tran. Conversion UO2 Fuel
PWR SF PUREX MOX Fuel Enrichment
Uranium
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Component
PWR-MOX
0
0
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.04
0.06
0.1
0.14
0.98
Underground Cost
HLW from O thers
Depleted U
SF_DUPIC Packaging
SF_UO 2 Tran
Conversion
UO 2 Fuel
SF_DUPIC Tran. Sto
Enrichment
DUPIC Fuel
U ranium
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Com ponent
D U P IC
0
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.09
0.34
0.38
0.85
HLW from Others
Depleted U
Reprocessed U
SF_UO2 Tran
Conversion
UO2 Fuel
Decay storage
Enrichment
PWR SF Pyro.
Pyro. & SFR Fuel Fab.
Uranium
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Coefficient
Pyro-SFR
OT
Coefficient
CoefficientCoefficient
CoefficientCoefficient
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우라늄 Break-even Cost I
3.0
8.0
13.0
18.0
23.0
40 140 240 340 440 540 640 740 840 940
Uranium Price ($/kgU)
Fuel
Cyc
le C
ost (
mill
s/kW
h)
PWR-OT
PWR-MOX
DUPIC
Pyro-SFR
• Breakeven price of uranium : $ 270/kgU for Pyro-SFR fuel cycle with reference to the OT option
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40 60 80 100 120100
150
200
250
300
350
Brea
keve
n Ur
aniu
m P
rice
($/k
gU)
Cost vaiation of fuel cycle components
Pyro-UO2
Pyro-metal-Fab.
Cost variation of Fuel Cycle Components (%)
우라늄 Break-even Cost II
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결 론 및 토론
• 회귀민감도(regression sensitivity)의 분석결과 우라늄가격이 고온
전해분리비용, 금속핵연료 제조비용 등보다도 가장 민감한 것으
로 나타났음.
ü이는 Pyro-SFR 핵연료주기의 경제성 확보는 향후 우라늄가격
에 따라 크게 좌우됨을 의미함
• 직접처분주기와 Pyro-SFR 핵연료주기의 비용표준편차를 고려하
면, 오차범위내에 존재한다고 해석할 수 있음
• 향후, 엔지니어링 분석을 통한 정확한 파이로 비용 도출이 요구됨