Envisioning Envisioning Skagit Skagit

Alternative Alternative FuturesFutures

John BolteBiological and Ecological Engineering Department

Oregon State University

Alternative Futures Alternative Futures ProjectsProjects

Examine multiple Examine multiple scenariosscenarios of trends and of trends and assumptions about future conditions, generally assumptions about future conditions, generally using one or more models of change, using one or more models of change,

Assist in incorporating Assist in incorporating stakeholder interactionsstakeholder interactions to define to define goals, constraints, trajectories, drivers, goals, constraints, trajectories, drivers, outcomesoutcomes

Allow Allow visualizationvisualization of the results in a variety of of the results in a variety of types and formatstypes and formats

Ultimately are intended to assist in improving Ultimately are intended to assist in improving land management decision-making and land management decision-making and informing choices informing choices

An Approach to Projecting An Approach to Projecting Alternative Future Alternative Future

LandscapesLandscapes Based on modeling Based on modeling behavior and actionsbehavior and actions of of

individual land owners/land managers (individual land owners/land managers (actorsactors))

Our approach: spatially explicit, represents Our approach: spatially explicit, represents land management decisions of those with land management decisions of those with authority over parcels of landauthority over parcels of land

Actor decisionsActor decisions implemented through policies implemented through policies that guide & constrain potential actionsthat guide & constrain potential actions

Autonomous processesAutonomous processes (e.g. succession) (e.g. succession) simultaneously modeledsimultaneously modeled

Envision – Conceptual Envision – Conceptual StructureStructure

LandscapeFeedbacks

LandscapeFeedbacks

Actors Decision-makers managing the landscape by selecting policies responsive to their objectives

Policies

Fundamental Descriptors of constraints and actions defining land use management

decisionmaking

ScenarioDefinition

Autonomous Change Processes

Models of Non-anthropogenic Landscape Change

Landscape Production Models

Generating Landscape Metrics Reflecting Ecosystem Service Productions

Multiagent Decision-making

Select policies and generate land

management decision affecting landscape

pattern

Landscape Spatial Container in which landscape

changes, ES Metrics are

depicted

ENVISIONENVISION – Triad of Relationships – Triad of Relationships

Polic

ies

Inte

ntio

nsActors

Values

LandscapesMetrics of Production

Provide a common frame of referenceProvide a common frame of referencefor actors, policies and landscape productionsfor actors, policies and landscape productions

Goals•Economic Services•Ecosystem Services•Socio-cultural Services

Policy DefinitionPolicy Definition

Landscape policies are decisions or plans of Landscape policies are decisions or plans of action for accomplishing desired outcomes.action for accomplishing desired outcomes.

  from:from:

Lackey, R.T. 2006. Axioms of ecological Lackey, R.T. 2006. Axioms of ecological policy. Fisheries. 31(6): 286-290.policy. Fisheries. 31(6): 286-290.  

Policies in ENVISIONPolicies in ENVISION Policies are a decision or plan of action for Policies are a decision or plan of action for

accomplishing a desired outcome; they are a accomplishing a desired outcome; they are a fundamental unit of computationfundamental unit of computation in Evoland in Evoland

Describe actions available to actorsDescribe actions available to actors

Primary CharacteristicsPrimary Characteristics::

Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)

Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative models)models)

Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection and application of the Policyand application of the Policy

ExampleExample: [: [Purchase conservations easement to allow Purchase conservations easement to allow revegetation of degraded riparian areasrevegetation of degraded riparian areas] in [] in [areas areas with no built structures and high channel migration with no built structures and high channel migration capacitycapacity] when [] when [native fish habitat becomes scarcenative fish habitat becomes scarce]]

Models in ENVISIONModels in ENVISION Models are “plug-ins” of two types:Models are “plug-ins” of two types:

1)1) Autonomous ProcessesAutonomous Processes: Represent : Represent processes causing landscape changes processes causing landscape changes independent of human decision-making independent of human decision-making – e.g. climate change, vegetative – e.g. climate change, vegetative succession, forest growth, fire, succession, forest growth, fire, flooding, ??? flooding, ???

2)2) Evaluative Models Evaluative Models – Generate – Generate production statistics and report back production statistics and report back how well the landscape is doing a how well the landscape is doing a producing metrics of interest – e.g. producing metrics of interest – e.g. carbon sequestration, habitat carbon sequestration, habitat production, land availability, risk, ???production, land availability, risk, ???

Models in ENVISIONModels in ENVISION A well-defined, relatively simple, yet robust A well-defined, relatively simple, yet robust

interface specificationinterface specification is defined for both is defined for both Autonomous Processes and Evaluative Models.Autonomous Processes and Evaluative Models.

Models can expose Models can expose input input andand output variables output variables

Models have Models have full access full access to to the underlying the underlying spatial representation, policy sets, exposed spatial representation, policy sets, exposed variables, actor representation, and spatial variables, actor representation, and spatial engineengine

Models can make changes to the Models can make changes to the underlying underlying landscape representationlandscape representation

EnvisionEnvision automatically manages automatically manages all exposed all exposed model datamodel data

ENVISION FrameworkENVISION FrameworkAndrews ApplicationAndrews Application

EN

VIS

ION

Mean Age at Harvest

Carbon Sequestration

Forest Products Extraction

Harvested Acreage

Fish Habitat (IBI)

Resource Lands Protection

Evaluative ModelsData Sources

Autonomous ProcessModels

Parcels (IDU’s)

Rural Residential Expansion

Policy Set(s)

Agent Descriptors

Vegetative Succession

Climate Change

Envision Andrews Study Envision Andrews Study AreaArea

Envision Andrews - Envision Andrews - ScenariosScenarios

Conservation - no Climate ChangeConservation - no Climate Change

Development - no Climate ChangeDevelopment - no Climate Change

Conservation - with Climate ChangeConservation - with Climate Change

Development - with Climate ChangeDevelopment - with Climate Change

DEMONSTRATIONDEMONSTRATIONEnvisionEnvision

Scenario Results – Forest Scenario Results – Forest CarbonCarbon

Scenario Results – Forest Scenario Results – Forest Product ExtractionProduct Extraction

Scenario Results – Fish Scenario Results – Fish IBIIBI

A possible approach for A possible approach for the Skagitthe Skagit

Use a mixture of parcel-level data, land use/land cover, and zoning Use a mixture of parcel-level data, land use/land cover, and zoning to establish decision units (IDU coverage)to establish decision units (IDU coverage)

Develop sets of policy alternatives, focusing on those landscape Develop sets of policy alternatives, focusing on those landscape areas of primary interest to the project, and addressing land areas of primary interest to the project, and addressing land management alternatives that represents a range of possible management alternatives that represents a range of possible management approachesmanagement approaches

Define several scenarios reflecting 1) plan trend , and 2) scenarios Define several scenarios reflecting 1) plan trend , and 2) scenarios addressing key stakeholder alternatives in terms of alternative addressing key stakeholder alternatives in terms of alternative policy setspolicy sets

Evaluate the resulting landscape trajectories with defensible models Evaluate the resulting landscape trajectories with defensible models of key metrics relevant to stakeholder goals.of key metrics relevant to stakeholder goals.