environmental features discriminating between high shear/low cape severe convection and null...
DESCRIPTION
Environmental Features Discriminating Between High Shear/Low CAPE Severe Convection and Null Events. Keith Sherburn Matthew Parker North Carolina State University 2012 Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research Workshop 16 November 2012. Acknowledgements. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Environmental Features Discriminating Between High Shear/Low CAPE Severe
Convection and Null Events
Keith SherburnMatthew Parker
North Carolina State University
2012 Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research Workshop
16 November 2012
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Acknowledgements• AMS/NOAA NWS Graduate Fellowship• CSTAR Program• NOAA Grant NA10NWS4680007
• WFO Collaborators• Storm Prediction Center• Andy Dean• Rich Thompson
• Convective Storms Group
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INTRODUCTIONWhat is high shear/low CAPE, and why do we care?
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INTRODUCTION• “High” shear
0-6 km layer ≥ 35 knots (18 m/s)
• “Low” CAPE Surface-based parcel ≤ 500 J/kg
HSLC
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INTRODUCTION• Tornadoes
<= 500 J/kg MLCAPE
• Significant Tornadoes <= 500 J/kg MLCAPE
Guyer and Dean (2010)
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INTRODUCTION
All HSLC Significant Reports from 2006-2011
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INTRODUCTION
Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
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INTRODUCTION• Research limited to last couple of decades• Many unanswered questions:
Role of mesovortices? Role of rear-inflow jet? Influence of boundaries? Vertical distribution of instability and moisture? Compensation for overall lack of instability? How can we improve the forecasting of
these events?
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DATA AND METHODSWhat we have and how we’re using it
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DEVELOPMENT DATA• Events subjectively determined by
WFOs, but include majority of HSLC events in region
• SPC Relational Database (SFCOA; aka Mesoanalysis) “nearest neighbor”
• “HSLC Event” – Over half of reports for a CWA were HSLC
• One report per CWA per hour• 80 significant reports
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DEVELOPMENT DATA• Nulls were warnings issued on a day
in which no severe reports were received by the WFO issuing the warning
• SFCOA interpolated to latitude, longitude point
• 114 nulls
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Annual Cycle of Reports and Nulls – Development Dataset
Nulls Significant Severe
Month
Perc
enta
ge
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VERIFICATION DATA• All significant severe reports across
US from 2006-2011• All nulls, as defined previously, from
Oct. 2006 through 2011• SFCOA nearest neighbor• 2517 HSLC Significant Reports
(275 CSTAR)• 1316 HSLC Nulls (118 CSTAR)
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
U.S. Annual Cycle of Reports and Nulls - Verification Dataset
Reports % Nulls % Tornadoes % Wind % Hail %
Month
Perc
enta
ge
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METHODS• Statistical analyses• Skill scores– True Skill Statistic:– TSS = (ad-bc)/[(a+c)(b+d)] ~ POD – FA
Rate– a: Hit, b: False Alarm, c: Miss, d: Correct
Null• Box-and-whisker plots
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RESULTSWhat we’ve found so far
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1
RESULTS
HSLC CONVECTIO
N
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
NULLS
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
SIGNIFICANT WINDS
2
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1SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY
PARAMETER:SHERB = (0-3 km shear magnitude / 25 m s-1) * (0-3 km lapse rate / 5.2 K km-1) * (700-500 mb lapse rate / 5.8 K km-1)
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VERSION:SHERBE = (Effective shear magnitude / 26 m s-1) * (0-3 km lapse rate / 5.2 K km-1) * (700-500 mb lapse rate / 5.8 K km-1)
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0 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 1 1.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9 2 2.12.22.32.42.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
True Skill Statistic: Our Domain HSLC Significant Events vs. Nulls
Parameter Threshold Value
True
Ski
ll St
atis
tic
SHERBESHERBSTPSCPCraven-BrooksVGPEHI
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0 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 1 1.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9 2 2.12.22.32.42.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
True Skill Statistic: Our Domain HSLC Signif -icant Tornadoes vs. Nulls
Parameter Threshold Value
True
Ski
ll St
atis
tic
SHERBESHERBSTPSCPCraven-BrooksVGPEHI
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0 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 1 1.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9 2 2.12.22.32.42.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
True Skill Statistic: All US HSLC Signif -icant Events vs. Nulls
Parameter Threshold Value
True
Ski
ll St
atis
tic
SHERBESHERBSTPSCPCraven-BrooksVGPEHI
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0 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 1 1.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9 2 2.12.22.32.42.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
True Skill Statistic: All US HSLC Signif -icant Tornadoes vs. Nulls
Parameter Threshold Value
True
Ski
ll St
atis
tic
SHERBESHERBSTPSCPCraven-BrooksVGPEHI
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123456
7891011
30 S63 N
95 S72 N
374 S134 N
300 S96 N
76 S68 N
18 S23 N
4 S39 N
19 S38 N
414 S201 N
876 S417 N
306 S168 N
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123456
7891011
2 T28 W5 H
16 T64 W15 H
13 T229 W132 H
7 T164 W129 H
1 T62 W13 H
2 T16 W0 H
0 T4 W0 H 2 T
15 W2 H
7 T253 W154 H
188 T555 W133 H
64 T189 W53 H
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123456
7891011
SCP
SHERBE
SCPEHISHERBSHERB
Craven-Brooks/EHI/SCP
SHERB/EHI
SHERBESHERB
SHERB
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FUTURE WORKWhere do we go from here?
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FUTURE WORKIDEALIZED
SIMULATIONS• Hypothesis testing• Bryan’s Cloud Model 1
(CM1)• Using composite soundings
COMPOSITE PARAMETERS• Test real-time• Evaluate differences
by region• Other formulations
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storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/nam/
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CONCLUSIONS
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CONCLUSIONS• HSLC a forecast problem in SE/Mid-
Atlantic• Significant tornadoes need high
shear, but what about CAPE?• Our composite parameters show an
improvement in skill over existing parameters for our CSTAR region
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EXTRA SLIDES
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 US0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
All HSLC: Optimal Composite Parameter Skill by Region
Region
True
Ski
ll St
atis
tic
SHERBESHERBSTPSCPCraven-BrooksVGPEHI
123456
7810 911
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 US0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
HSLC Tor: Optimal Composite Parameter Skill by Region
Region
True
Ski
ll St
atis
tic
SHERBESHERBSTPSCPCraven-BrooksVGPEHI
123456
7810 911
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1• 35 HSLC Significant Events• 60 HSLC Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.257 @ 0.59
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.286 @ 0.77
• Best composite parameter:• SCP = 0.469 @ 1.25
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1• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.317 @ 37 kts• S3MG = 0.360 @ 23.5 kts• LLLR = 0.200 @ 3.3 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.050 @ 4.8 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• M5CP = 0.489 @ 350 J kg-1
• 50 mb mixed-layer CAPE
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2• 95 Significant Events• 72 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.208 @ 0.94
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.365 @ 0.83
• Best composite parameter:• SHERBE
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2• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.416 @ 44 kts• S3MG = 0.190 @ 25.5 kts• LLLR = 0.068 @ 4.8 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.046 @ 7.3 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• ESHR
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3• 374 Significant Events• 134 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.281 @ 0.71
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.286 @ 0.78
• Best composite parameter:• SCP = 0.360 @ 2.42
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3• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.320 @ 47 kts• S3MG = 0.235 @ 35.5 kts• LLLR = 0.057 @ 3.6 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.253 @ 6.8 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• ESHR
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4• 300 Significant Events• 96 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.278 @ 0.77
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.322 @ 0.94
• Best composite parameter:• EHI3M1* = 0.443 @ 0.95
*0-3 km SRH and 100 mb mixed CAPE
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4• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.364 @ 49 kts• S3MG = 0.157 @ 29.5 kts• LLLR = 0.069 @ 4.4 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.147 @ 7.2 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• M1MX = 0.406 @ 11 g kg-1
• 100 mb mean mixing ratio
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5• 76 Significant Events• 68 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.365 @ 1.22
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.183 @ 1.41
• Best composite parameter:• SHERB
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5• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.168 @ 38 kts• S3MG = 0.195 @ 27 kts• LLLR = 0.064 @ 6.7 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.060 @ 6.3 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• S1MG = 0.310 @ 15 kts• 0-1 km shear magnitude• NLFH = 0.441 @ 3800 m• Non-virtual LFC height (higher
for events)
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6• 18 Significant Events• 23 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.517 @ 1.10
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.101 @ 1.04
• Best composite parameter:• SHERB
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6• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.012 @ 57 kts• S3MG = 0.493 @ 25 kts• LLLR = 0.312 @ 6.4 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.000 @ 5.3 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• MUCN = 0.639 @ -40 J kg-1
• Most Unstable CIN• S8MG = 0.693 @ 67 kts• 0-8 km shear magnitude
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7• 306 Significant Events• 168 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.471 @ 0.99
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.470 @ 1.05
• Best composite parameter:• SHERB
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7• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.381 @ 49 kts• S3MG = 0.291 @ 39 kts• LLLR = 0.204 @ 5.3 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.282 @ 5.8 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• ESHR
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8• 876 Significant Events• 417 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.352 @ 0.87
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.347 @ 0.95
• Best composite parameter:• SHERB
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8• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.298 @ 48 kts• S3MG = 0.223 @ 35.5 kts• LLLR = 0.264 @ 5.4 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.111 @ 6.1 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• ESHR
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9• 414 Significant Events• 201 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.195 @ 0.83
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.324 @ 0.81
• Best composite parameter:• SHERBE
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9• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.325 @ 44 kts• S3MG = 0.144 @ 29.5 kts• LLLR = 0.098 @ 3.9 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.119 @ 6.1 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• ESHR
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10• 19 Significant Events• 38 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.395 @ 1.36
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.105 @ 1.34
• Best composite parameter:• SHERB/EHI
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10• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.237 @ 46 kts• S3MG = 0.474 @ 37.5 kts• LLLR = 0.079 @ 9.1 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.053 @ 8.5 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• SRH3 = 0.605 @ 200 m2s-2
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11• 4 Significant Events• 39 Nulls
• SHERB optimal:• TSS = 0.083 @ 0.88
• SHERBE optimal:• TSS = 0.000
• Best composite parameter:• SCP = 0.250 @ 0.41• EHI = 0.250 @ 0.52/0.45• CBSS = 0.250 @ 10000
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11• SHERB/E Component Optimal TSS:• ESHR = 0.122 @ 37 kts• S3MG = 0.167 @ 28.5 kts• LLLR = 0.077 @ 5.5 K km-1
• LR75 = 0.154 @ 5.8 K km-1
• Max Individual TSS:• INPW = 0.769 @ 0.9”• Precipitable water