entergy transmission planning summit new orleans, la july 10, 2003
DESCRIPTION
Generation and Transmission Development in the Southeastern United States. Entergy Transmission Planning Summit New Orleans, LA July 10, 2003. SERC Generation Development Survey. Fifth annual survey Survey request sent in late January Information requested from Transmission Providers - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1
Entergy Transmission Planning Summit
New Orleans, LA
July 10, 2003
Generation and Transmission Development
in the Southeastern United States
2
3
SERC Generation Development Survey
• Fifth annual survey• Survey request sent in late January • Information requested from Transmission Providers• All results received by early March
Leading the Industry!!!Leading the Industry!!!
4
• Collects 10 years of planned generation development• Categorizes facilities by interconnection status
– Interconnection service requested– Interconnection agreement signed
• Sub-categories indicate the amount of generation designated as a network resource
• Reports aggregate, not plant specific, generation plant capabilities
• Final results reported on Regional and subregional basis
SERC Generation Development Survey
5
Current Status of Generation Plant Development
* In-Service Year of Added Generation (MW)
2003200
42005
2006
2007
2008
1) Interconnection Service Requested, Only
1993 4741 12447 9351 4514 675
> Designated as Network Resource or has obtained Firm PTP Transmission service
1952 360 1951 6121 2102 505
2) Interconnection Agreement Signed/Filed
20223 7002 8372 1184 1600 0
> Designated as Network Resource or has obtained Firm PTP Transmission service
5997 2143 1773 75 0 0
SERC Generation Development Survey
6
2002 Survey Projected Interconnected Generating Plant Capability in Commercial Operation Prior to June 1, 2002:
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)202,388 MW
Total Actual Interconnected Generating Plant Capability in Commercial Operation Prior to December 31, 2002:
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)200,744 MW
Total Merchant Generating Plant Capability in Commercial Operation Prior to December 31, 2002 :
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)
26,399 MW
SERC Generation Development Survey
7
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Meg
awat
ts
IS Requested IS Requested-DNR IA Signed IA Signed-DNR
Projected Capacity Additions- Cumulative, by Category -
8
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Meg
awat
ts
Entergy Southern TVA VACAR
Projected Capacity Additions- Annual, by Subregion -
9
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Year
Meg
awat
ts
IS Requested DNR IA Signed DNRIS Requested w/out DNR IA Signed w/out DNR
Projected Capacity Additions- Annual, by Category -
10
Projected Capacity Additions- Cumulative Additions, Only -
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Me
ga
wa
tts
2001 Total 2002 Total 2003 Total
11
Total Projected Generating PlantCapability Additions by July 1, 2010:
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)205,837 MW
Total Projected Generating PlantCapability Additions by July 1, 2010:
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)243,669 MW
2002 Survey Results
2001 Survey Results
Total Projected Generating PlantCapability Additions by July 1, 2010:
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)
72,897 MW
2003 Survey Results
Survey Result Comparisons- Cumulative Additions, Only -
12
Projected Total Capacity- Existing Capacity plus Cumulative Additions -
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Me
ga
wa
tts
2001 Total 2002 Total 2003 Total
13
Survey Result Comparisons - Existing Capacity plus Cumulative Additions -
Total Projected Generating PlantCapability in July 1, 2010:
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)373,010 MW
Total Projected Generating PlantCapability in July 1, 2010:
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)422,988 MW
2002 Survey Results
2001 Survey Results
Total Projected Generating PlantCapability in July 1, 2010:
(Summer Net Plant Capability in MW)
274,011 MW
2003 Survey Results
14
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Meg
aw
att
s
2003 Total SERC Projected Peak Load
Load Trend vs. Projected Total Capacity
15
16
• Total projected generation capacity for Summer ’03 (222,960 MW) exceeds projected Summer ’03 load (157,941 MW) by 65,000 MW
• Total connected generation capacity at the end of last year exceeds projections for SERC Regional load in 2012
– Projected capacity additions indicate sufficient generating resources over the long-term planning horizon
SERC Generation Development Survey
17
• SERC Generation Development survey accurately projects actual generation development for the following year
• Survey reflects recent decline in proposed generation capacity additions– Survey projects generation capacity additions of 73,000 MW over
the next 10 years– Projected capacity additions for the same period have declined by
61% in the past year
• Network resource additions continue to be a small percentage of the projected capacity additions in the Region
SERC Generation Development Survey
18
SERC Transmission Development Survey
• Second annual survey• Survey request sent in late January • Information requested from Transmission Providers• All results received by early March
Leading the Industry!!!Leading the Industry!!!
19
• Requests total planned transmission expenditures– 5 years of cost data– 100 kV and above
• Requests aggregate data for transmission projects, only– New lines– New substations– Line rebuilds– Substation rebuilds– Line reconductoring projects
• Excludes distribution station costs• Results available on a Regional and subregional basis
SERC Transmission Development Survey
20
Transmission Development Expenditures
- Projected 2002 versus Actual 2002 -
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
SERC Entergy Southern TVA VACAR
Millio
ns
Year
2002 Projected 2002 Actual
21
Transmission Development Expenditures
- Projected 2002 versus Projected 2003 -
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Millio
ns
Year
2002 Projected 2003 Projected
22
Survey Result Comparisons- Total Projected Expenditures -
Total Projected Transmission ExpendituresOver the Subsequent Five Years : $6.932 Billion
$6.265 Billion
2003 Survey Results
2002 Survey Results
Total Projected Transmission ExpendituresOver the Subsequent Five Years :
23
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mill
ion
s
Year
2002 Cumulative Total 2003 Cumulative Total
Survey Result Comparisons- Cumulative Annual Expenditures -
24
Total Projected Transmission ExpendituresOver the Subsequent Five Years : $6,265 Million
$191 Million
2003 Survey Results
2003 Survey Results
Of the Total Projected Expenditures Over the Subsequent Five Years, Amount
Attributed to Direct Interconnection of Generation :
SERC Transmission Development Survey
27
• Actual spending in 2002 fell short of projected spending acquired from last year’s survey– Cancellation of generation may have contributed to a portion of the
decline– Shortfall was minimal, indicating real spending has been occurring on the
SERC transmission systems
• Projected spending for next five years (beginning in 2003) is slightly below five-year projected spending from 2002
• 2003 survey projected spending correlates well with 2002 actual spending
SERC Transmission Development Survey