ENSO in CMIP5and how it relates to the Indian

Summer Monsoon

Rajeev Kurup

&

Krishna AchutaRao

Work in Progress

• Continuation of previous work (AchutaRao & Sperber 2002, 2006)

• New Flavors Modoki CT/EP & WP

• Teleconnections with Indian Monsoon

• Rainfall datasets

Defining ENSO Events

Form DJF seasonal anomalies of NIÑO3 TAS and SOI

Standardize the two time series

IfStandardized NIÑO3 anomaly 0.6

ANDStandard SOI -0.6

IfStandardized NIÑO3 anomaly -0.6

ANDStandardized SOI 0.6

Warm Event Cold Event

From AchutaRao & Spreber (2002, 2006)

Warm Event (Niño3-SOI) DJF SST Composite

El Niño Modoki DJF SST Composite

Cold Tongue El Niño (EP) and Warm Pool El Niño (WP)

• EP events =  Standardized  SONDJF NINO3 SST anomaly > 1 and should be grater than Standardized  NINO4 anomaly. 

• WP events = Standardized  SONDJF NINO4 SST anomaly > 1 and should be grater than Standardized  NINO3 anomaly. 

Kug et. al, J. Climate, 2009

East Pacific Event (2N-2S)

Warm Pool Event (2N-2S)

All Events WP EP NINO3 SOI JJAS Anomaly (%)

1877/1878 N Y Y -32%

1888/1889 N Y Y -6%

1896/1897 N Y Y 1%

1899/1900 N Y Y -23%

1902/1903 N Y Y -5%

1904/1905 N N Y -10%

1905/1906 N Y Y -17%

1911/1912 N Y Y -14%

1914/1915 N N Y 7%

1918/1919 N Y Y -27%

1925/1926 N Y Y -4%

1930/1931 N Y N -5%

1939/1940 N N Y -6%

1940/1941 N N Y -1%

1941/1942 Y N Y -13%

1951/1952 N Y Y -15%

1957/1958 Y N Y -6%

1963/1964 N N Y 4%

1965/1966 N Y Y -18%

1968/1969 Y N N -7%

1969/1970 Y N Y 1%

1972/1973 N Y Y -21%

1977/1978 Y N N 5%

1982/1983 N Y Y -12%

1986/1987 Y N Y -13%

1987/1988 Y N N -18%

1990/1991 Y N N 7%

1991/1992 Y N Y -3%

1994/1995 Y N Y 14%

1997/1998 N Y Y 2%

2002/2003 Y N Y -21%

2003/2004 Y N N 2%

2004/2005 Y N N -10%

2006/2007 Y N N 3%

2009/2010 Y N Y NA

Composite JJAS Precipitation (season prior to peak of ENSO)

Niño3-SOI Event East Pacific Event Warm Pool Event

To be continued…..

• Rainfall datasets over India need a more thorough look

• Composite analysis of various “model” flavors of ENSO ongoing

• ENSO-Monsoon relationship in models also being looked at