enphasys project: annual review...8. evaluate modis aod for 2006, 2007, & 2008 9. compare caliop...
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ENPHASYS Project:
3rd Annual Review
Stan Morain, PI
And
ENPHASYS Team
NASA Public Health Program Review September 27-28, 2010 San Antonio, TX
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Strategy
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Status of Year-3 Tasks
1. Compare MOD12 to MCD12 outputs using & w/o dust source updates
2. Produce daily DREAM outputs using dust masks
3. Produce retrospective model runs of known dust episodes, 2008 & 2009
4. Execute V&V on retrospective and daily model runs
5. Push dust flux output to MSFC for CMAQ modeling of aerosols & ozone
6. Install CMAQ at UNM
7. Execute routine CMAQ model runs for speciated aerosols and ozone
8. Evaluate MODIS AOD for 2006, 2007, & 2008
9. Compare CALIOP curtains with AOD patterns for 2006, 2007, & 2008
10. Assess ability to distinguish anthropogenic from natural air quality
episodes
11. Produce twice-monthly dust source distribution updates & evaluate
patterns
12. Post-process DREAM/eta and CMAQ model outputs
13. Develop metadata for CMAQ and DREAM/eta products
14. Develop prototype products for EPHTS/N and prototype dust advisories
15. Environmental Tracking for Public Health Surveillance
White = completed; Yellow = in progress; Green = needs attention
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Accomplishments Oct 2009 to Mar 2010
1. UA solved issues at UA comp ctr & tested DREAM/eta with dust masks
2. UNM with MSFC developed plan to validate CALIOP w/ MOD/AOD
3. MSFC base-lined 2 dust events in CMAQ using WRF-SMOKE
4. A naming convention was created for ENPHASYS inputs and outputs
5. Began routine production of DREAM/eta forecasts using dust masks
6. Transferred CMAQ model grids to model fugitive dust, speciated
aerosols, and O3
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Accomplishments Apr 2010 to Sep 2010
1. Compared MOD12 and MCD12 model runs to assess performance
2. Completed model runs to compare MOD12 w/ MCD12 with and w/o dust
source updates
3. Installed CMAQ model at EDAC
4. Initiated metadata templates for EPHTS/N products
5. Designed a dust advisory initiative for cities and towns across AZ and NM
6. Processed and evaluated CALIOPE data for verifying aerosol episodes
El Paso UTEP, March 2010
Model Comparison, 24-hour averages
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
3/1/2010 0:00 3/6/2010 0:00 3/11/2010 0:00 3/16/2010 0:00 3/21/2010 0:00 3/26/2010 0:00 3/31/2010 0:00
utc
PM
2.5
, u
g/m
3
AIRNOW mod12 (EDAC) mcd12_50km mcd12_7.5km
'false alarm' all models
'hit' mod12, mcd12_50km
four mod12 "false alarms'
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Outreach
• Created / updated brief for Public Health Highlights
• Created brief for PH Accomplishments
• Created 1-page NASA flyer
• Published peer-reviewed chapter in JBGIS book
• Participated in EOM Conf. & prepared Use Case
• Poster Session at AGU, Dec 2009, San Francisco
• Presented at AMS, Jan 2010, Atlanta
• Presented at ATS, May 2010, New Orleans
• Presented at Space Technology Applications for
Socio-Economic Benefits, Sep 2010, Istanbul
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Month-to-Month Changes in Agricultural
Dust Sources Across DREAM Domain
DREAM Domain: % Change Based on Crop
Categories Only
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
F08/M
08
M08/A
08
A08/M
08
M08/J
08
J08/A
08
A08/S
08
S08/O
08
O08/N
08
N08/D
08
D08/J
09
J09/F
09
F09/M
09
M09/A
09
A09/M
09
M09/J
09
J09/J
09
J09/A
09
A09/S
09
S09/O
09
O09/N
09
N09/D
09
D09/J
10
J10/F
10
F10/M
10
M10/A
10
A10/J
10
C to C
NC to NC
C to NC
NC to C
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Areas of Greatest Seasonal Variation in
Dust Sources from Agriculture
San Luis: % Change Based on Crop Categories
Only
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
F08/M
08
M08/J
08
S08/O
08
D08/J
09
M09/A
09
J09/J
09
S09/O
09
D09/J
10
M10/A
10
C to C
NC to NC
C to NC
NC to C
NM
CO
TX
Llano Estacado: % Change Based on Crop
Categories Only
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
F08/M
08
M08/J
08
S08/O
08
D08/J
09
M09/A
09
J09/J
09
S09/O
09
D09/J
10
M10/A
10
C to C
NC to NC
C to NC
NC to C
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Areas of Least Seasonal Dust Source
Variation from Agricultural Fields
CAAZ
Inland Empire: % Change Based on Crop
Categories Only
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
F08/M
08
M08/J
08
S08/O
08
D08/J
09
M09/A
09
J09/J
09
S09/O
09
D09/J
10
M10/A
10
C to C
NC to NC
C to NC
NC to C
Lower Colorado River: % Change Based on
Crop Categories Only
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
F08/M
08
M08/J
08
S08/O
08
D08/J
09
M09/A
09
J09/J
09
S09/O
09
D09/J
10
M10/A
10
C to C
NC to NC
C to NC
NC to C
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Verification & Validation
V&V Process Steps Distribution of PM2.5
AIRNow Stations
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Comparing Performance of Models to
AIRNow Observations
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March 2010 Data Analysis(AIRNow and MCD12 Model Outputs)
• Model performance evaluated during a relatively “healthy” month for dust
• The low (50 km) resolution model produced a false alarm somewhere in the model domain almost every day (28 of 31 days)
• The high (7.5 km) resolution model produced a 2% false alarm rate, but only one false alarm outside of southern California
• The high resolution model missed the 3/27 event in El Paso; low resolution model indicated a “hit”
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Ozone & Aerosol Tasks
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CALIOP Curtains
Ascending and Descending Passes
Using CALIOP data for verification and validation of AOD
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Elements of Product Development
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Metadata
• FGDC-compliant metadata created and parsed for: Dust masks
Concentrations of PM2.5
modeled by DREAM
AQI reclassification of PM2.5
Daily averages of PM2.5
by month
• Automate metadata process for each product line
• Required for data discovery and delivery in EPHT
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Developing Interface for Health Client
Server: NM EPHT via IBIS
Buttons
for pollen,
dust,
ozone,
aerosols
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Sample
from Demo
of NM
EPHT1
23
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Sample
from
Demo of
NM EPHT
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Network of Air Quality Volunteers
AZ and NM for Dust Advisory Notices
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Challenges
• DOH switch to IBIS
• Scheduling model runs on super computer
• Changes in NOAA’s Global Forecast System
• Dust sources north of 35º latitude
• Employee resignation
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Project Team
• Modeling Team
Bill Sprigg
Slobodan Nickovic
Goran Pejanovic
Ana Vukovic
Maudood Khan
Brian Barbaris
• Applications Team
Amy Budge
Bill Hudspeth
Tom Budge
Karl Benedic
Hays Barrett
Matt Gagnon
Peggy Allison
Orrin Myers
Stan Morain, PI