Engineering our future: design, life cycle and systems thinkingChris McMahon

Introduction

OUR ENGINEERED WORLDConsidering the engineered world as material flows

Energy

Emissions

Our economic

activities generate

material flows from

sources to sinks:

• Energy is the

lifeblood of

these flows

• Many materials

stay in use for

years as

infrastructure

and capital

resources

We have constraints at each end of the flows

http://copperbullion.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/3-ton-nugget.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fe/Evolution_minerai_cuivre.svg

IEA projection of global all-liquids production to 2035.

Miller R G , and Sorrell S R Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2014;372:20130179

©2014 by The Royal Society

2014 actual

“adapting rapidly and peacefully to oil scarcity in a manner that does not

destroy the global environment provides humanity with a formidable challenge”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algal_bloom

http://www.lung.org/assets/images/smog.jpg

http://images.businessweek.com/imageserve/2014-11/7295c9d2e6d8d2bbd01aba4d472902c5-682x512.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCL8kBlWsAAknvC.jpg

We have an urgent need for action

We have an urgent need for action - but we have incommensurate world views:

‘‘Facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent” (Ravetz, 2004)

Ecocentrism Technocentrism

Deep ecology Communalism Accommodation Cornucopian

Green labels

Extreme

preservationist

Resource

preservationist

Resource

conservationist

and managerial

Resource

exploitative and

growth oriented

Type of

economy

Very deep green

economy.

Highly regulated

Deep green

economy.

Steady state

economy

Green economy,

green markets,

economic

incentives

Anti-green

economy.

Unfettered free

markets

Management

Reduced scale of

economy and

population.

Zero economic

and population

growth.

Modified

economic growth.

Primary policy to

maximise growth.

Adapted from Dusch, Crilly and Moultrie, 2010, and Pearce, 1993

We have an urgent need for action

Design is about understanding how things work:

“Design is a funny word. Some people think design means how it looks.

But of course, if you dig deeper, it’s really how it works. To design

something really well, you have to get it. You have to really grok

[understand] what it’s all about.” [Steve Jobs]

Design is about effecting change

“Engineers are not the only professional designers. Everyone designs

who devises courses of action aimed at changing existing situations into

preferred ones”, [Herb Simon]

Design is about synthesis and creation

“A designer is an emerging synthesis of artist, inventor, mechanic,

objective economist and evolutionary strategist”, [R Buckminster Fuller]

These are design issues!

PRINCIPLESHow should we think of the artificial world in design terms?

The artificial world is created

from technologies, which

exploit natural phenomena

[Arthur].

Designers create by

assembling and adapting

these technologies

Design also contributes to

development of useful

artefacts from newly

discovered phenomena

The nature of the designed world

Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking the Public vs. Private Sector Myths. London: Anthem.

http://www.nanotech.dtu.dk/english/samples-newsletter/apr-15/graphene

We concentrate on ‘dominant designs’

We concentrate on ‘dominant designs’

ENGINEERING SYSTEMS

Industrial revolution

Epoch of artefacts and great inventions

Epoch of complex systems

Epoch of engineeringsystems

Automobile Telephone Light bulb

Highways PSTN Electric power

grid

Thermodynamics Electricity

Chemistry Controls

Radio waves New materials

Steam engine

Transportation

systemCommunication

systemEnergy

system

Ships Satellites

Air Rail

Internet Coal Gas Water

Solar Wind NuclearGPS SMS

21

stce

ntu

ry 2

0th

centu

ry 1

9th

centu

ry

Adapted from From De Weck et al., Engineering Systems, 2011

We live in a world of engineered systems

Design is at all

scales from the

infrastructure

system to nano

scale, and at

levels of detail

from whole

architecture to

precision

dimensions and

surface

conditions

Design happens at all scales!

http://www.senodia.com/Public/Front/images/technology_01.jpghttp://www.remsol.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/image1.jpeg

https://inhabitat.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2010/05/OMA-Roadmap-2050-13.jpg

http://images.books24x7.com/bookimages/id_21477/fig16-11.jpg

http://www.nanotech.dtu.dk/-/media/institutter/nanotech/nyheder/2015/smartdiagnos-illustration.ashx

From De Weck et al., Engineering Systems, 2011

Design considers many viewpoints

MODES OF CHANGEIn what different ways do we design and redesign?

Designers develop and refine

both the formulation of a

‘problem’ and ideas for its

solution.

In doing so they propose

concepts, expressed as

solution principles.

These form design patterns for

reuse.

Design concepts and solution principles

We can reduce impact

without changing

solution principle by

modifying design

parameters, for

example:

• More insulation in a

refrigerator

• Reduced

drag/friction/ other

losses

• Reduced weight

• Optimisation/ design

space search

Fixed solution principle but modified parameters

http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/shell-ecomarathon/_jcr_content/pageHeader/image.img.1600.jpeg/1453291465249/red-and-yellow-car.jpeg

In internal

substitution [Arthur],

we change some

element of a design

pattern:

• Material

substitution e.g.

composite aircraft

• Functional

substitution e.g.

electrical motors

and actuators

Making a substitution within the solution principle

1916

1930s

1980s

2016

In structural

deepening we add to

an existing design

pattern to add

functionality, improve

control, remove

adverse effects etc.

• E.g. Emissions

control on engines

• Improved controls

on heating/lighting

systems

• ‘Smart’ cities and

homes

Adding functionality to the solution principle

Images from http://www.dtu.dk/english/News/2016/03/Dynamo44-Smart-cities

Improving the circularity of the solution principle

We can reduce

resource use and

impacts of waste by

designing for a

circular economy:

• Design for material

recovery

• Design for

remanufacture

• Design for

upgrading

• Design for long life

and easy repair

Compatible materials

Design for

disassembly

Replaceable

wearing

surfaces

Modularity

Open designs/

Standards

Reverse

logistics

We can modify

the operation of

the artefact:

• Speed

reduction

• Improved

load factors

• Operation

and driving

strategies

Modifying the operation of the artefact

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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bc/

Continuous_descent_approach.svg/1200px-Continuous_descent_approach.svg.png

https://tokyodesu.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/tokyo_train_crush.jpg

What is the potential for improvement?

Vary

parameters

Internal

substitution

Add

functionalityImprove

circularity

.Tyndall Centre University of Manchester

Aircraft fuel burn

Solution

principle

Operation

We create the

novel by proposing

new technological

combinations, often

by combining

principles from two

or more existing

technologies

Novel solution principle

http://www.ultraglobalprt.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Still3B_large.jpg

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/what-is-a-hyperloop-1.4216469

http://www.uwindsor.ca/engineering/dailynews/2016-03-23/

http://www.iosolar.com/http://www.foronuclear.org/images/floating-nuclear-plant-revised-MIT.jpg © MIT

Servitisation,

product-service

systems (PSS) and

the sharing

economy offer

alternative value

propositions:

• Selling or

sharing the

function of the

product

• Allowing multiple

uses, including

down-cycling

Servitisation and sharing

Transportation Retail

AccommodationServices

Finance

We can use the

design of artefacts to

try to influence user

behaviour:

• Aesthetic and

graphical design

• Social norms

• IT apps and

infrastructure

• Changes to

default options

• Design of public

spaces and

infrastructure

Design for behavioural change

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http://www.newport.gov.uk/images/Environment/

Streetscene/Waste%20%20Recycling/

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http://www.peakapp.eu/

https://www.thelocal.dk/20160620/world-wowed-by-new-copenhagen-bike-path

[In clothes washing in Japan] . . . all colours

are washed at room temperature. Further,

[for some families] after the family members

have all bathed in the same bath water, the

water is transferred to the washing machine

for the clothes wash.

Wilhite et al. (1996). A cross-cultural analysis of household

energy use behaviour in Japan and Norway.

Reframing focuses on

trying to generate a

different view of a

problem situation:

• E.g. Asking rather

than how do we

heat a building,

how do we keep its

occupants warm?

Changing the problem being addressed

We have discarded

many technologies

because the low

cost of fossil fuels

made it cost

effective to do so. It

may be a good time

to revisit them!

Revisiting ‘discarded’ solution principles

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ea/3a/1a/ea3a1ab4e6a86871b543c984c510dd9f.jpg

MIT Senseable City Lab / AMS

http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2015/12/fruit-walls-urban-farming.html

PSI theory: spaces in

design:

• The problem space

considers “what is

being designed?”

• The social space

considers stakeholders

and their motivations

and aspirations.

• The institutional

space considers the

institutional context –

e.g. economic, and

regulatory.[Subrahmanian et al 2017]

We must not forget social and institutional factors

https://biocharinnovation.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/pict0560.jpg

http://cdn.downtoearth.org.in/dte/userfiles/images/cook-stoves.jpg

Rs. 300 a

month is

expensive,

but

Rs. 10 a

day is fine! [Harish

Hande]

https://selcofoundation.org/

SOME IMPLICATIONS

Behavioural or systemic

responses to efficiency gains

and reduced costs may

counterbalance the gains

through the rebound effect

Efficiency gains may prolong

our lock-in to resource-

intensive modes of living

There may be energy and

other costs of increased

complexity and it may lead to

reduced resilience

Some dangers

Fossil fuels pervade

our lives and many of

the technologies that

we use today will not

be available to us in

the future without very

major adaptation.

The ‘extinction of technologies’

https://theperimeteruk.files.wordpress.com/

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https://www.marineinsight.com/wp-content/

uploads/2016/07/Depositphotos_61067349_original-copy-1.jpg

http://aggregatesandminingtoday.com/images/CAT1.jpg

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As an example of

institutional factors,

consider regulation:

• For many

businesses it is a

driver for change

• But in many ways

it contributes to

lock-in, for

example in our

urban zoning

regulations

Institutional factors

Google Map data

“‘Success’ today is largely associated with derivative measures of

increasing gross domestic product, profitability, speed or salary.

Yet our value systems are based on integral measures of quality

and stock: reputation, heritage, journeys and relationships. We

need to expand the dialogue of climate mitigation to reflect these

values. Challenging our habits of energy use should be the first

priority of climate policy.”

[Julian Allwood, University of Cambridge, letter to Nature, 2016]

Social and political factors are key

In order to understand how things work and how we might change them

we need:

• Life cycle thinking - deep knowledge of the impacts of our

activities on the world

• Systems thinking – how the systems of the artificial world develop

and interact with those of the natural world

• Design thinking – knowledge of how to change the world and in

what ways, and the courage and will to do so

Start by doing what's necessary; then do what's possible;

and suddenly you are doing the impossible. [Francis of Assisi]

Concluding remarks

Thank you for your attention!

Any questions?

Chris McMahon chmcm@mek.dtu.dk