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Engineering Economics Group (EEG) Capabilities Summary

September 2015 | Atlanta, GA

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Presentation Contents

Introduction to SpaceWorks Engineering Economics Group (EEG) Capabilities

Life Cycle Analysis

Cost Assessment

Operations Assessment

Reliability Assessment

Systems Engineering

Commercial Assessment and Space Market Analysis

Relevant Experience Exploration Cost Analysis Support

Heavy Lift Propulsion Technology (HLPT) Studies

Near-Earth Object Study

Google Lunar X-Prize with Astrobotic, Inc.

Lunar In-situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Propellant Services Market

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EEG Capabilities and Skills

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EEG Skills and Capabilities

Reliability Operations

Systems Engineering

Life Cycle Cost

Non-Recurring

Cost

Market Analysis

Commercial Assessment

Engineering Economics

Group

SpaceWorks’ Engineering Economics Group (EEG) provides integrated and quantitative analysis of life cycle disciplines that complements advanced space

systems design and development activities

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Life Cycle Analysis: Cost Assessment

NASA/Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM) SEER for Hardware SEER for Software TRANSCOST v8.0 NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) Stack’em Remix ICCCoM FGOA Descartes-Origins

Cost Assessment Capabilities

Tools, Processes, and Databases Industry Standard Internally Developed

� Development, acquisition, operations, and overall life cycle cost assessment for all elements of a concept or architecture (launch hardware, test articles, facilities, ground equipment, etc.)

� Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of vehicle design selections and cost tool settings

� Programmatic guidance backed by quantitative analysis can also be provided, including realistic schedule recommendations, cost phasing, and reserve budgeting strategies

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Life Cycle Analysis: Operations Assessment

COMET-OCM LLEGO RMAT AATe Arena (for DES) Descartes-Hyperport

Industry Standard Internally Developed

� Assessment of operability and affordability of expendable, reusable, solid or liquid vehicles using industry standard tools and an internally developed model

� Quantification of turn-around time, labor head count, recurring cost, and required resources for operational scenarios of interest.

� Optimization of the activity flow, people, materials, and other resources

Operations Assessment Capabilities

Tools, Processes, and Databases

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Life Cycle Analysis: Reliability Assessment

Relex Itemsoft Toolkit Reliability databases and sources GT-Safety II Excel-based FTA and ESN tools

Industry Standard Internally Developed

� Quantitative assessment of key reliability and safety Figures of Merit such as Loss of Vehicle, Loss of Crew, and Loss of Mission

� Probabilistic analysis to estimate certainly levels and reliability margins

� Integration of results with life cycle cost analysis to calculate expected failures and cost of failure metrics

Example Study: Mars Exploration Costs

Reliability Assessment Capabilities

Tools, Processes, and Databases

Example Study: Lunar Exploration Architecture Reliability

Example Study: Rocket-Based Combined Cycle Vehicle Reliability

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Systems Engineering

RiskNav MagicDraw INCOSE Defense Acquisition University DODI 5000.02 NASA Systems Engineering Handbook

Standard Tools Standard Sources

� Document and track program risks on 5x5 � Serving as risk manager for program risks � Providing model-based systems engineering

expertise � Analyzing and managing system requirements

with traceability

Example: RBS Pathfinder Systems Engineering Plan

Example: Risk Management Process

Tools, Processes, and Databases

Systems Engineering Capabilities

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Commercial Assessment: Business Case Analysis

� Evaluation of a proposed concept/architecture from a business perspective and determination of criteria for financial success

� Determine Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Return on Investment (ROI), cash flows, etc.

� Development and analysis of economic trade studies such as different demand scenarios, market capture analysis, financing options, etc.

Business Case Analysis

Tools, Processes, and Databases

-$175 M

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$0 M

$25 M

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$75 M

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year

Net P

rese

nt V

alue

(NPV

) by Y

ear

Firm A

Firm B

Cost and Business Analysis Module 2 (CABAM-2) Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC) Tool Space Solar Power Abbreviated Transportation Economics (SSPATE) Custom Financial Analysis and Pro-Forma Financial Projections

Internally Developed

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Commercial Assessment: Macro-economic Studies

� General macro-level economic analysis and quantification of economic externalities

� Market size and growth estimation, basic industry research, and economic impact assessment

� Example forecasting and analysis of future markets including: • LEO payload delivery • ISS commercial crew/cargo services • Propellant depots with commercial resupply

Macro-Economic Studies Capabilities

Tools, Processes, and Databases Orbital Satellite Database (SEI-OSD) Nano/Micro Satellite Projection Tool Manifesting and Payload Simulation (MAPS) Tool Orbital Satellite Forecasting Tool Custom Market Forecasts Launch Market for Normal People (LMNoP) SpaceWorks Sponsorship Calculator

Internally Developed

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EEG Recent Experiences and Applications

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Experience: Exploration Cost Analysis Support

� In support of NASA’s Strategic Cost Analysis Team, SpaceWorks provided DDT&E, TFU, acquisition, and LCC estimates for various DRAs and potential exploration paths (Moon, Mars, asteroids, etc.) • Notable elements included surface habitats, landers, and aeroshells • Lunar campaign assessments utilizing international partners (e.g. ESA, JAXA, etc.)

� Developed Cost Research and Analogy Library (CoRAL), a database containing cost, performance, and programmatic elements for various space systems

Lead: Dominic DePasquale, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: NASA LaRC / NASA HQ / NASA JSC Duration: 3 years Date: 2008-2011

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Experience: Heavy Lift Propulsion Technology (HLPT) Studies

� SpaceWorks supported both the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) and Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) teams during NASA’s HLPT studies.

� For PWR team, tasked to provide predictions for HLV development and recurring costs, reliability, ground operations, and facilities costs

� For OSC team, provided predictions for HLV development and recurring costs as well as facilities costs � HLV concepts ranged from two or three stage configurations, with liquid or solid boosters, and clean-sheet

designs vs. Shuttle-derived hardware vs. EELV-derived

Lead: John Bradford, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: PWR, OSC (for NASA MSFC) Duration: 5 months Date: 2010-2011

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Experience: Near-Earth Object Study

� SpaceWorks supported an internal JPL study that investigated a 1-year human mission to a Near Earth Object (NEO)

� SpaceWorks provided the DDT&E cost, TFU cost and development/production durations for all architecture elements

� A mixed methodology of cost estimating using industry standard software (NAFCOM, SEER), analogous historical and concept study data, and expert-driven cost equations was used

� Notable architecture elements included a Cryogenic Boost Stage, Solar Electric Propulsion Stage, and a Xenon Fuel Module

Lead: Dominic DePasquale, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: JPL Duration: 1 month Date: 2010

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Experience: Google Lunar X-Prize with Astrobotic, Inc.

� SpaceWorks assisted Astrobotic Technology, Inc. by analyzing and determining the commercial potential of future robotic missions to the Moon after an anticipated successful Google Lunar X PRIZE

� SpaceWorks provided an evaluation of both the development and acquisition costs of Astrobotic’s lander and rover

� Integrated financial projections were determined using SpaceWorks cost and revenue estimates

Lead: A.C. Charania, Dominic DePasquale Customer: Astrobotic Team (Carnegie Mellon) Duration: 3 months Date: 2009

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Experience: Lunar In-situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Propellant Services Market

� SpaceWorks was selected by NASA to perform an economic analysis of a commercially operated lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) facility

� The Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) was used as the resource for all NASA Lunar exploration activities

� The economic analysis focused on three major case studies, differentiated by the location of propellant delivery: Lunar surface, Low Lunar Orbit (LLO), and Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO)

Lead: A.C. Charania, Dominic DePasquale Customer: NASA LaRC Duration: 3 months Date: 2007

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