engadin/st.moritz ch fr at it luxurymarket* real estate … · nendaz/veysonnaz leysin-les mosses...

12
Real estate markets UBS Alpine Property Focus 2018 Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management | 22 May 2018 3:12 pm BST Maciej Skoczek, CFA, Economist; Matthias Holzhey, Economist; Claudio Saputelli, Economist • Prices for vacation homes in the Swiss Alpine region have recovered slightly. However, the price trends lag those of the top destinations in Austria and France. This report analyzes the most expensive vacation apartment markets in the Alpine region, using a wide selection of indicators to provide supporting data. Second homes in Engadin/St. Moritz most expensive As was the case last year, Engadin/St. Moritz is the most expensive tourist destination in the Alpine region. A good-quality vacation apartment in the area costs around CHF 15,000 per square meter. This is around 7 percent more than in last year. This is followed by Gstaad, where prices come in at a whopping CHF 14,500 per square meter, again higher than in 2017, although prices rose a more moderate 2 percent over the year. The French resort of Courchevel, along with St. Anton am Arlberg and Kitzbühel in Austria make up the remainder of the top-five spots for most expensive Alpine vacation destination where good-quality second homes fetch around CHF 13,000 per square meter. Prices in these resorts rose by 4 to 7 percent in euro terms compared to the previous year. Rising prices in Austria and France Average second home prices across all Alpine destinations increased by 1.5 percent compared to the previous year. Prices climbed significantly in relative terms at Austrian and French destinations (5 percent and 3 percent, respectively). In Swiss resorts, prices rose by 1 percent on average compared to the previous year. Of all the Alpine regions, only the top Italian destinations recorded a slight fall in prices. Overall, prices in the Austrian Alps are almost 20 percent higher than in 2013, while in the French Alps they are up by around 15 percent. In contrast, prices in Switzerland are down 4 percent from 2013, with Italy 10 percent lower. Exchange rate and economy benefit Swiss vacation apartment market Over the past year, the euro appreciated by almost 10 percent against the Swiss franc. This movement was a factor in the Eurozone Alpine destinations advancing in terms of price, in some cases substantially. As a result, Swiss vacation apartments became relatively more attractive. The strong economy also supports demand within Switzerland. In 2018, we expect slightly rising prices for second homes in the Swiss Alpine region. A version of this report was originally published outside of the US in German on 23 May 2018. Price overview of the destinations Bars show the bandwidth of the prices for vacation apartments in the upmarket segment, in thousands of Swiss francs per square meter CH FR AT IT Luxury market* 0 5 10 15 20 Engadin/St.Moritz Gstaad Courchevel St. Anton am Arlberg Kitzbühel Verbier Val d'Isère Méribel Lenzerheide Jungfrau Region Zermatt Cortina d'Ampezzo Laax/Flims Davos/Klosters Megève Courmayeur Engelberg Andermatt/Sedrun Saas-Fee Adelboden/Lenk Chamonix Crans-Montana Scuol Arosa Villars-Gryon-Les D. Samnaun Anniviers Val-d'Illiez Hasliberg Flumserberg Breil/Brigels/Obersaxen Wildhaus Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest Partner, Callon, Nomisma, immi.at, UBS. *Locations with a high-end segment with no top limit to prices. This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document.

Upload: others

Post on 27-Jul-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

Real estate marketsUBS Alpine Property Focus 2018

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management | 22 May 2018 3:12 pm BSTMaciej Skoczek, CFA, Economist; Matthias Holzhey, Economist; Claudio Saputelli, Economist

• Prices for vacation homes in the Swiss Alpine region haverecovered slightly. However, the price trends lag those of thetop destinations in Austria and France.

• This report analyzes the most expensive vacation apartmentmarkets in the Alpine region, using a wide selection ofindicators to provide supporting data.

Second homes in Engadin/St. Moritz most expensiveAs was the case last year, Engadin/St. Moritz is the most expensivetourist destination in the Alpine region. A good-quality vacationapartment in the area costs around CHF 15,000 per square meter. Thisis around 7 percent more than in last year. This is followed by Gstaad,where prices come in at a whopping CHF 14,500 per square meter,again higher than in 2017, although prices rose a more moderate 2percent over the year. The French resort of Courchevel, along with St.Anton am Arlberg and Kitzbühel in Austria make up the remainderof the top-five spots for most expensive Alpine vacation destinationwhere good-quality second homes fetch around CHF 13,000 persquare meter. Prices in these resorts rose by 4 to 7 percent in euroterms compared to the previous year.

Rising prices in Austria and FranceAverage second home prices across all Alpine destinations increasedby 1.5 percent compared to the previous year. Prices climbedsignificantly in relative terms at Austrian and French destinations (5percent and 3 percent, respectively). In Swiss resorts, prices rose by 1percent on average compared to the previous year. Of all the Alpineregions, only the top Italian destinations recorded a slight fall in prices.Overall, prices in the Austrian Alps are almost 20 percent higher thanin 2013, while in the French Alps they are up by around 15 percent.In contrast, prices in Switzerland are down 4 percent from 2013, withItaly 10 percent lower.

Exchange rate and economy benefit Swiss vacation apartmentmarketOver the past year, the euro appreciated by almost 10 percentagainst the Swiss franc. This movement was a factor in the EurozoneAlpine destinations advancing in terms of price, in some casessubstantially. As a result, Swiss vacation apartments became relativelymore attractive. The strong economy also supports demand withinSwitzerland. In 2018, we expect slightly rising prices for second homesin the Swiss Alpine region.

A version of this report was originallypublished outside of the US in German on 23May 2018.

Price overview of the destinationsBars show the bandwidth of the prices for vacationapartments in the upmarket segment, in thousands ofSwiss francs per square meter

CH FR AT IT Luxury market*

0 5 10 15 20

Engadin/St.MoritzGstaad

CourchevelSt. Anton am Arlberg

KitzbühelVerbier

Val d'IsèreMéribel

LenzerheideJungfrau Region

ZermattCortina d'Ampezzo

Laax/FlimsDavos/Klosters

MegèveCourmayeur

EngelbergAndermatt/Sedrun

Saas-FeeAdelboden/Lenk

ChamonixCrans-Montana

ScuolArosa

Villars-Gryon-Les D.SamnaunAnniviers

Val-d'IlliezHasliberg

FlumserbergBreil/Brigels/Obersaxen

WildhausNendaz/VeysonnazLeysin-Les Mosses

Aletsch-ArenaOvronnaz

AnzèreEvolène

Disentis/MustérLeukerbad

Source: Wüest Partner, Callon, Nomisma, immi.at, UBS.*Locations with a high-end segment with no top limit toprices.

This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document.

Page 2: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

Number of vacation apartments likely to continuegrowingIf the supply of vacation apartments remains static, the prices ofexisting properties inevitably move in tandem with demand. Forvacation apartment owners, the legal framework appears to beadvantageous at present. This is because the Second Homes Actimposes tight limits on the new construction of second homes inSwitzerland's tourist destinations. The supply of new vacation apart-ments is nevertheless not likely to peter out quickly.

Grandfathered homes as a major reserve of second homesThere is a large reserve of potential second homes as, under theSecond Homes Act, grandfathered1 homes are not subject to anyrestriction on use. In around two-thirds of destinations we havereviewed, however, their repurposing is restricted through local reg-ulations. Even before adoption of the Second Homes Initiative in2012, most tourist-oriented municipalities (especially in the Cantonof Grisons) controlled the housing market by means of first homequota plans, area quotas, incentive taxes or zoning regulations. Nev-ertheless, in many regions, the proportion of usage-restricted grand-fathered homes is below 10 percent. Only in Oberengadin, where themunicipalities introduced usage restrictions in the early 1980s, up toone-third of the grandfathered homes are registered as first home.

Shrinking population increases stock of second homesAround 80,000 homes (40 percent of the total stock) are used as aprimary place of residence in vacation destinations. If only one percentof these homes were converted into second homes per year, the stockof second homes would rise by 0.6 percent each year. How many firsthomes actually come on the market as second homes depends on thepopulation trends in the individual destinations. If there is growingdemand for first homes (for example in Lower Valais), a correspond-ingly smaller number of second homes will come to the market.

A comparison of building permits and population growth indicates anover-supply of first homes, and consequently a growth in the stockof second homes. The specific repurposing of first homes into secondhomes by means of replacement buildings is not, however, in thespirit of the Second Homes Act. If this option is exploited (for exampleby way of a legal loophole), further restrictions could follow at themunicipal level. The introduction of further restrictions is currentlybeing discussed in some localities (e.g. in Davos and Zermatt)..1As defined in the Second Homes Act, grandfathered homes are all types of homesthat legally existed or for which a legally valid construction permit had beengranted as at March 11, 2012.

Low population growth favors conversion of firsthomesPopulation growth since 2006 and potential expansionof the stock of second homes through the conversionof grandfathered first homes, in percent

-15 0 15

Andermatt/Sedrun

Leukerbad

Aletsch-Arena

Samnaun

Arosa

Saas-Fee

Adelboden/Lenk

Lenzerheide

Davos/Klosters

Breil/Brigels/Obersaxen

Jungfrau Region

Disentis/Mustér

Wildhaus

Gstaad

Hasliberg

Evolène

Flumserberg

Zermatt

Engadin/St.Moritz

Scuol

Villars-Gryon-Les Diablerets

Verbier

Crans-Montana

Val-d'Illiez

Engelberg

Anniviers

Nendaz/Veysonnaz

Flims/Laax

Anzère

Leysin-Les Mosses

Ovronnaz

Population growth

Relatively low

Relatively highMedium

Conversion potential

30

Source: FSO, UBS

Source: gettyimages.

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 2

Page 3: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

Hotel repurposing and homes managed for tourism with lowimpactExisting hotels are a further source of new second homes. If it can beshown that a hotel can no longer be run profitably, parts of it may besold as a second home or leased on a long-term basis. However, thispotential supply of second homes is small in most locations.

Homes managed for tourism purposes2 may continue to be estab-lished in municipalities with a high proportion of second homes.Managed homes are sold with a restriction on use. In these cases, thebuyer acquires condominium ownership with future rental income, asthe apartment must be permanently advertised for short-term rental.The buyer may not furnish the apartment according to personal tasteand may make personal use of it for not more than three weeks perhigh season. For this reason, homes managed for tourism tend to becomparable with hotel investments and contribute only indirectly tothe supply of second homes..

Letting only mildly attractiveOver the past ten years, online portals have made it considerablyeasier to rent out vacation apartments, enabling owners to earn moreincome.

Above-average rental income can be found at locations with uniqueor exceptional tourist attractions/activities (such as Engelberg, Zermattor the Jungfrau region), especially during the peak winter season.However, vacation apartments seldom guarantee regular income overthe course of the year; on average, only around one out of threeproperties is fully let over a full 12-month season. In the low season,in particular, occupancy can fall to just 20 percent.

When leasing a vacation apartment through Airbnb, the averageexpected yield across all destinations after deducting leasing expensesis around 4 percent. Yields vary considerably by between 1 to 2percent in Gstaad and around 7 percent in Evolène.

Second homes are often not ideal investment properties. Althoughattractive returns can be achieved depending on destination andseason, the expected yield is lower and more volatile than the averagefound in the biggest Swiss cities.2Tourist managed homes may be established in the form of accessory apartments,with the residents performing the role of host. Managed homes may also beestablished as structured hotel-like businesses. These offer apartments for short-term letting, have minimal hotel infrastructure (reception) and offer hotel services(restaurants, cleaning, etc.).

Large bandwidth of rental yieldsExpected rental yields*, in percent; expected dailyrental income** on an annual average, in CHF

0 20 40 60 80

0 2 4 6 8

GstaadFlumserberg

Engadin/St.MoritzSaas-Fee

LenzerheideCrans-Montana

VerbierScuol

Flims/LaaxAnzère

Davos/KlostersNendaz/Veysonnaz

WildhausAdelboden/Lenk

Andermatt/SedrunSamnaun

Villars-Gryon-Les D.Ovronnaz

Leysin-Les MossesArosa

Disentis/MustérAnniviers

Breil/Brigels/Obers.Val-d'IlliezLeukerbad

Aletsch-ArenaHasliberg

ZermattJungfrau Region

EngelbergEvolène

Yields(top axis)

Daily rental income(bottom axis)

Source: AirDNA, UBS. *When letting a studio apartmentwith around 30 square meters of usable space. ** Theexpected daily rental income is calculated based on theaverage price of a studio and the occupancy rate in theprevious year.

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 3

Page 4: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

Leading vacation apartment markets in the AlpineregionThe table of leading vacation apartment markets focuses on destina-tions with a price per square meter of over CHF 8,000, sorted by price.While extensive, the list does not capture all properties or locationswithin these parameters. We also sort the list by market size and dataavailability.

Prices are expressed in Swiss francs (EUR/CHF exchange rate = 1.17);price changes, on the other hand, are in local currency. Due to limita-tions on data availability, the analysis of rental prospects, populationgrowth and supply restrictions are only carried out for destinations inSwitzerland.

Source: Fotolia

Top vacation apartment markets in the Alpine regionPrice category one: Price per square meter over 8,000 Swiss francs

1yr 5yr* 10yr

1 Engadin/St.Moritz 15 400 7.4 -1.7 2.7

2 Gstaad 14 300 1.5 -0.4 2.9

3 +1 Courchevel 13 400 4.5 3.2 1.4 n/a n/a n/a

4 +2 St. Anton am Arlberg 13 100 6.5 3.1 - n/a n/a n/a

5 +2 Kitzbühel 12 900 5.1 3.1 - n/a n/a n/a

6 -3 Verbier 12 300 -3.2 -2.6 -1.6

7 +2 Val d'Isère 12 200 2.7 1.7 0.6 n/a n/a n/a

8 +3 Méribel 12 000 2.7 3.1 1.1 n/a n/a n/a

9 -4 Lenzerheide 11 700 0.2 -1.8 3.6

10 Jungfrau Region 11 300 4.8 1.1 1.6

11 -3 Zermatt 11 300 1.6 -2.6 2.6

12 +1 Cortina d'Ampezzo 10 700 -1.8 -2.7 -2.8 n/a n/a n/a

13 -1 Flims/Laax 10 600 2.8 -0.1 3.4

14 Davos/Klosters 10 200 1.1 -2.9 3.0

15 +2 Megève 10 100 1.8 2.9 1.3 n/a n/a n/a

16 +3 Courmayeur 9 800 -1.6 -1.5 -0.3 n/a n/a n/a

17 -2 Engelberg 9 700 -1.6 3.6 4.5

18 -2 Andermatt/Sedrun 9 600 1.5 5.8 5.2

19 +4 Saas-Fee 9 300 14.3 2.3 3.4

20 -2 Adelboden/Lenk 9 100 -0.6 0.6 3.7

21 +3 Chamonix-Mont-Blanc 8 900 3.4 2.6 1.7 n/a n/a n/a

22 -2 Crans-Montana 8 800 -3.0 -1.4 2.6

23 -1 Scuol 8 400 2.1 -0.1 3.1

24 -3 Arosa 8 400 -1.8 -1.9 3.0

* Austria and Italy: price growth over 4 years

Location characteristics Market outlook

Rentalperspective

Restrictivesupply

Populationgrowth

Market size AccessibilityTouristfacilities

OccupancyVacationdestination

Place2018

vs.2017

Prices

Levelin CHF/m²

Annual growth

Well above average Above average Average Below average Well below average n/a No data

Source: UBS

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 4

Page 5: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

Key resultsPricesThe report shows the asking prices per square meter of living space(single-family homes and condominiums) of an upmarket standard forthe respective location. The data does not allow for any differentiationbetween use as a first or second home.

The rate that prices change is annualized and relates to the upmarkethome ownership segment of the market. Historical price data isreadily available for Switzerland and France. For Italy and Austria, thefive-year growth rate was extrapolated using the four-year growthrate.

The five most expensive Alpine destinations showed rising real estateprices last year. In Engadin/St. Moritz, second homes rose about7 percent, while in the leading Austrian vacation destinations ofSt. Anton am Arlberg and Kitzbühel, and in the French resort ofCourchevel, prices increased around 5 percent. Overall, prices rose inall French destinations included in the study, while the Italian locationsof Courmayeur and Cortina d'Ampezzo saw a slight correction.

The picture was more diverse for the Swiss destinations. The topValais locations of Verbier and Crans-Montana suffered the sharpestprice drop compared to the previous year (around 3 percent). Smallprice corrections of just under 2 percent were recorded in Arosa andEngelberg. Properties in Saas-Fee and in the Jungfrau region showedstrong price gains. Price increases were more moderate in Flims/Laax,Andermatt, Zermatt and Davos/Klosters, while prices stagnated inLenzerheide and Adelboden/Lenk.

Top vacation apartment markets in the Alpine region

Source: UBS

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 5

Page 6: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

Market sizeThe number of existing second homes determines the size of themarket. The average market size for the regions in the top price cat-egory is 5,500 units.

The total number of vacation apartments varies between slightly morethan 10,000 units in Crans-Montana or Davos/Klosters to less than2,000 vacation apartments in St. Anton am Arlberg. With almost9,000 properties, Chamonix and Engadin/St. Moritz are among thebiggest vacation apartment markets....

____Top 5:____1. Crans-Montana____2. Davos/Klosters____3. Chamonix-Mont-Blanc____4. Engadin/St. Moritz____5. Flims/Laax

AccessibilityThis indicator measures travel times by both private and publictransport to airports, airfields, regional centers and major metro-politan areas. The trend towards shorter but more frequent vaca-tions and weekend trips generally favors easily accessible destinations.Proximity to regional centers makes it easier to rent out a secondhome to locals, while proximity to an airfield is important for demandin the luxury segment.

Thanks to their proximity to major centers and airports, Kitzbühel,Chamonix, Engelberg and Megève have optimum accessibility andcan be easily accessed by public transport. In contrast, Val d'Isére andZermatt are less accessible.....

____Top 5:____1. Kitzbühel____2. Chamonix-Mont-Blanc____3. Engelberg____4. Megève____5. Méribel

Tourist facilitiesThis indicator measures the availability of ski slopes and supportingfacilities, including cross-country ski routes. It also includes a measureof the certainty of snow and takes into account visitor assessment ofthe resort. The availability of summer activities (summer lift facilities,golf courses or proximity to a glacier) also has a positive influence onthe indicator. The same applies to the outstanding tourist attractionssuch as the Jungfraujoch, Matterhorn or the Aiguille du Midi.

The breadth and availability of tourist activities helps to categorizedestinations, but it is not a compelling argument for, or against,buying a vacation apartment. While some vacation apartment buyersappreciate a wide range of activities, others prefer quieter locations.The indicator does not take into account the close proximity of somedestinations, which can greatly expand the range and availability oftourist activities/ facilities.

The range of the tourist facilities varies only moderately betweenthe destinations we review and facilities are highly rated at all ofthe leading destinations. Engadin/St. Moritz, Zermatt, Courchevel andMéribel have the greatest range of facilities, while Scuol, Crans-Montana and Courmayeur lag slightly behind.

____Top 5:____1. Engadin/St. Moritz____2. Zermatt____3. Méribel____4. Courchevel____5. Davos/Klosters

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 6

Page 7: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

OccupancyOccupancy relates to vacancy rates in the municipalities and not to thebed occupancy in the second homes. Availability rates on a key date(number of advertised properties in relation to housing stock) and, ifavailable, official vacancy rates, are used to calculate this indicator.Second homes advertised for sale or as long-term rentals are recodedas vacant.

Vacancy rates averaged 3.2 percent across our focus Alpine regionover the year. By region, the average vacancy rate in Italy fell by onepercentage point over the year, although at 3.7 percent, it remainsthe highest in the Alpine region. A similar fall was seen in the Aus-trian Alps, although in this case only two out of 100 apartments arevacant on average. In France, occupancy rates fell marginally, with theaverage vacancy rate standing at 3 percent.

Vacancy rates for all apartments averaged around 3.3 percent in theSwiss Alpine destinations. The highest vacancy rates were recorded inthe Valais Alps: in Ovronnaz, Crans-Montana, Leukerbad and Nendaz/Veysonnaz, more than 5 percent of all apartments were vacant (insome cases significantly more). In Grisons, on the other hand, thevacancy rate is much lower. The vacancy rate in Lenzerheide is just 1.2percent, while in Scuol and Davos/Klosters it is 2.1 percent....

____Top 5:____1. St. Anton am Arlberg____2. Adelboden/Lenk____3. Lenzerheide____4. Engelberg____5. Zermatt

Letting prospects

On assessing the let-ability of an apartment, we consider: i) lettingprospects based on achievable returns when let short-term as avacation home. The indicator is based on figures from the agencyplatform Airbnb, with the analysis supplemented by average touristvisits and the level of hotel prices. ii) the possibility of a long-termrental to a local is taken into account on the basis of yield figures andpopulation trends.

Engelberg, the Jungfrau region and Zermatt, three locations withpre-eminent international attractions, offer above-average yields. InGstaad and Saas-Fee, on the other hand, the weak first home marketputs pressure on letting properties. The yields on tourist letting arealso clearly below-average in these cases.

____Top 5:____1. Engelberg____2. Zermatt____3. Jungfrau Region____4. Arosa____5. Flims/Laax

Population growthIf the population increases in a municipality, there is greater scopefor infrastructure spending and the municipality's finances are sup-ported. This also boosts the attractiveness of a destination for ownersof second homes. In general, the current population trend is likelyto continue in the years to come. Population growth is favored bylocation-related factors such as an attractive tax environment, a pros-perous regional economy and convenient links to regional centers.

The permanent population should grow most strongly in Flims/Laaxand Engelberg. Rising demand for first homes is also expected inthe vacation locations at Crans-Montana and Verbier in Lower Valais.The outlook for the first home market in Andermatt/Sedrun and in

____Top 5:____1. Flims/Laax____2. Engelberg____3. Verbier____4. Crans-Montana____5. Engadin/St. Moritz

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 7

Page 8: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

Saas-Fee, on the other hand, is weak. These destinations suffer fromemigration, poor accessibility from urban centers and relatively highincome taxes....

Restrictive supplyThe new construction of vacation homes is severely restricted by theSecond Homes Act. However, the bigger the proportion of first homeswithout any restriction on usage in a municipality, the greater thepotential for future new second homes. In addition, if the currentconstruction of first homes exceeds the expected population growth,the likelihood of repurposing the grandfathered stock of housingincreases.

The potential for new second homes is relatively high in most Valaisdestinations. A large number of first homes, a lack of municipalrestrictions on use and high availability building-zoned land makethe supply more flexible. In many Grisons destinations, on the otherhand, the potential for new second homes seems to be lower. Withincreasing demand, higher price rises than in Valais are therefore pos-sible.

____Top 5:____1. Engadin/St. Moritz____2. Flims/Laax____3. Lenzerheide____4. Arosa____5. Scuol

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 8

Page 9: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

Other vacation apartment markets in SwitzerlandIn many Alpine vacation destinations residential property prices arewell below 8,000 francs per square meter. Nendaz/Veysonnaz is thebiggest vacation apartment market, with 8,000 units, and offers thebest tourist facilities among these destinations. The tourist facilities inmost of the smaller regions cannot compete with the top destinations– for example the average ski area in the extended group of vacationapartment markets is only half as big as in the top locations.

Apart from Leukerbad and Villars-Gryon, the current price level every-where is in excess of 2007's levels. Compared to last year, however,price drops were recorded in around half of the destinations. Thelargest correction of around 6 percent was seen in Anniviers. Theprices were also in decline at many destinations in Valais and Vaud. InHasliberg and Samnaun, on the other hand, prices rose significantly.

The number of vacant apartments is significantly elevated in someValais destinations in the second price category. In Ovronnaz,Leukerbad and Nendaz/Veysonnaz, for example, at least five out of100 apartments are vacant. In Grisons destinations and in Flum-serberg and Wildhaus, on the other hand, vacancies remain man-ageable. The letting prospects are above average in Villars-Gryonand Hasliberg. In Flumserberg, as a typical one-day destination, oneshould not expect high income and occupancy rates.

In view of the high population growth in the vacation locations ofLower Valais and the Canton of Vaud, demand for first homes is likelyto remain relatively robust. In contrast, the outlook is not as rosy atdestinations in Upper Valais and in Surselva. Restrictive supply couldbenefit price rises for second homes in Breil/Brigels in the long-term..

Source: Fotolia

Other Swiss vacation apartment marketsPrice category two: Price per square meter below 8,000 Swiss francs

1yr 5yr 10yr

Villars-Gryon-Les Diablerets 7 900 2.5 -2.2 -0.2

Samnaun 7 800 12.8 0.2 0.8

Anniviers 7 700 -6.4 -0.4 3.9

Val-d'Illiez 7 600 1.2 -1.5 2.5

Hasliberg 7 300 16.4 4.0 4.8

Flumserberg 7 100 7.0 4.8 4.5

Breil/Brigels/Obersaxen 7 100 -0.7 0.3 3.4

Wildhaus 6 500 7.6 4.1 4.3

Nendaz/Veysonnaz 6 300 -1.6 -3.2 2.1

Leysin-Les Mosses 6 200 -3.2 -1.6 1.0

Aletsch-Arena 6 100 3.8 0.5 2.2

Ovronnaz 6 000 4.1 0.1 2.3

Anzère 5 300 -5.0 -1.3 0.9

Evolène 5 200 -3.9 -2.2 0.7

Disentis/Mustér 5 100 3.0 -0.2 0.8

Leukerbad 5 000 -2.7 -3.4 -2.0

Populationgrowth

OccupancyRentalperspective

Market outlook

Restrictivesupply

Annual growthAccessibility Tourist facilitiesMarket size

Prices Location characteristics

Vacationdestination

Levelin CHF/m²

Weit überdurchschnittlich Überdurchschnittlich Durchschnittlich Unterdurchschnittlich Weit unterdurchschnittlich k.A. keine AngabenWell above average Above average Average Below average Well below average n/a No data

Source: UBS

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 9

Page 10: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

AppendixSize Ski slopes

1 Engadin/St.Moritz CH: Grisons 8 700 >250 1 800 3 300 Zurich 2h 40min

2 Gstaad CH: Bern 4 000 150-250 1 100 3 000 Geneva 2h 0min

3 Courchevel FR: Savoy 5 200 >250 1 900 3 200 Lyon 2h 10min

4 St. Anton am Arlberg AT: Tyrol 1 800 >250 1 300 2 800 Zurich 2h 10min

5 Kitzbühel AT: Tyrol 5 800 150-250 800 2 000 Munich 1h 50min

6 Verbier CH: Valais 6 100 >250 1 500 3 300 Geneva 1h 50min

7 Val d'Isère FR: Savoy 4 200 >250 1 900 3 500 Lyon 2h 50min

8 Méribel FR: Savoy 6 400 >250 1 500 3 200 Lyon 2h 0min

9 Lenzerheide CH: Grisons 5 800 150-250 1 500 2 900 Zurich 1h 50min

10 Jungfrau Region CH: Bern 5 500 150-250 1 000 3 000 Zurich 2h 10min

11 Zermatt CH: Valais 4 300 >250 1 600 3 900 Geneva 2h 40min

12 Cortina d'Ampezzo IT: Belluno 5 600 100-150 1 200 2 900 Venice 2h 10min

13 Flims/Laax CH: Grisons 7 500 150-250 1 100 3 000 Zurich 1h 50min

14 Davos/Klosters CH: Grisons 10 500 >250 1 600 2 800 Zurich 2h 0min

15 Megève FR: Upper Savoy 7 300 >250 1 100 2 400 Geneva 1h 10min

16 Courmayeur IT: Aosta Valley 4 900 <50 1 200 2 800 Geneva 1h 30min

17 Engelberg CH: Obwalden 2 700 50-100 1 000 3 000 Zurich 1h 15min

18 Andermatt/Sedrun CH: Uri 2 100 100-150 1 400 3 000 Zurich 1h 30min

19 Saas-Fee CH: Valais 2 600 150-250 1 800 3 600 Geneva 2h 40min

20 Adelboden/Lenk CH: Bern 5 200 150-250 1 400 2 400 Basel 2h 0min

21 Chamonix-Mont-Blanc FR: Upper Savoy 8 900 100-150 1 000 3 300 Geneva 1h 10min

22 Crans-Montana CH: Valais 10 700 100-150 1 500 2 900 Geneva 2h 0min

23 Scuol CH: Grisons 3 200 50-100 1 300 2 800 Zurich 2h 50min

24 Arosa CH: Grisons 4 200 150-250 1 700 2 900 Zurich 2h 10min

25 Villars-Gryon-Les Diablerets CH: Vaud 6 800 100-150 1 300 3 000 Geneva 1h 25min

26 Samnaun CH: Grisons 600 150-250 1 800 2 900 Zurich 3h 10min

27 Anniviers CH: Valais 4 400 150-250 1 500 3 000 Geneva 2h 10min

28 Val-d'Illiez CH: Valais 4 500 150-250 1 100 2 300 Geneva 1h 20min

29 Hasliberg CH: Bern 1 500 50-100 1 100 2 400 Zurich 1h 30min

30 Flumserberg CH: St. Gallen 2 700 50-100 1 200 2 200 Zurich 1h 10min

31 Breil/Brigels/Obersaxen CH: Grisons 3 400 150-250 1 300 2 400 Zurich 2h 10min

32 Wildhaus CH: St. Gallen 1 900 50-100 900 2 300 Zurich 1h 25min

33 Nendaz/Veysonnaz CH: Valais 8 200 >250 1 400 3 300 Geneva 1h 50min

34 Leysin-Les Mosses CH: Vaud 2 300 100-150 1 400 2 300 Geneva 1h 25min

35 Aletsch-Arena CH: Valais 3 500 100-150 1 900 2 900 Milan 2h 20min

36 Ovronnaz CH: Valais 1 600 <50 1 300 2 400 Geneva 1h 40min

37 Anzère CH: Valais 2 100 50-100 1 500 2 400 Geneva 2h 0min

38 Evolène CH: Valais 1 500 100-150 1 400 3 000 Geneva 2h 0min

39 Disentis/Mustér CH: Grisons 1 100 50-100 1 200 2 800 Zurich 2h 20min

40 Leukerbad CH: Valais 2 600 50-100 1 400 2 600 Geneva 2h 10min

Place2018

Vacationdestination

Altitude (m a.s.l.) Closest large airport

Country: RegionNumber of second

homesPrincipal town

Highest pointin ski area

City Traveling timeLength in km

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 10

Page 11: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

List of sourcesVariable Soures

Property prices (current and historic) Wüest Partner (Switzerland); Éditions Callon (France); Nomisma (Italy); immi.at, UBS (Austria)

Rents Wüest Partner

Market sizeARE (Switzerland); Insee (France); Istat (Italy); Statistik Austria, Statistik Tyrol,Statistik Vorarlberg (Austria)

Conversion potential of first homes Information from municipalities

Accessibility by private transport Google Maps

Accessibility by public transport SBB, rome2rio.com

Occupation (vacancy and offer rates)FSO, comparis.ch (Switzerland); Insee, seloger.com (France); immobiliare.it, casa.it (Italy);immosuchmaschine.at, immobilienscout24.at, immodirekt.at (Austria)

Ski slopes, facilities, cross-country ski routes Official websites and/or information of the destinations, Bergfex, myswitzerland.ch

Altitude of the resort, proximity to the glacier Official websites and/or information of the destinations, Bergfex

Certainty of snow Official websites and/or information of the destinations, skiresort.de, snowplaza.de, skigebiete-test.de

Thermal spas Official websites and/or information of the destinations and thermal spas, swisstherme.ch

Golf courses Official websites and/or information of the destinations and golf courses, Swiss Golf

Facilities open in the summer Official websites and/or information of the destinations

Building applications and approvals Docu Media

Building zones Federal Office for Spatial Development (ARE)

Development investment Federal Statistical Office (FSO)

Overnight stays and hotel rooms Federal Statistical Office (FSO)

Hotel prices Hotelleriesuisse

Rental statistics Airbnb AirDNA

Popoulation growth (forecasts) Federal Statistical Office (FSO), UBS

Tax burden Swiss Federal Tax Administration (FTA)

Regional economic potential UBS

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 11

Page 12: Engadin/St.Moritz CH FR AT IT Luxurymarket* Real estate … · Nendaz/Veysonnaz Leysin-Les Mosses Aletsch-Arena Ovronnaz Anzère Evolène Disentis/Mustér Leukerbad Source: Wüest

AppendixResearch publications from Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management, formerly known as CIO Americas, Wealth Management,are published by UBS Global Wealth Management, a Business Division of UBS AG or an affiliate thereof (collectively, UBS). In certaincountries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA. This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an offer, or a solicitation of anoffer, to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. The analysis contained herein does not constitute a personal recommendationor take into account the particular investment objectives, investment strategies, financial situation and needs of any specific recipient. It isbased on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. We recommend that you obtain financialand/or tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in the manner described or in any of the products mentioned herein.Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be offered worldwide on an unrestricted basis and/or may not beeligible for sale to all investors. All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliableand in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness (other than disclosuresrelating to UBS). All information and opinions as well as any prices indicated are current only as of the date of this report, and are subject tochange without notice. Opinions expressed herein may differ or be contrary to those expressed by other business areas or divisions of UBSas a result of using different assumptions and/or criteria. At any time, investment decisions (including whether to buy, sell or hold securities)made by UBS and its employees may differ from or be contrary to the opinions expressed in UBS research publications. Some investmentsmay not be readily realizable since the market in the securities is illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk towhich you are exposed may be difficult to quantify. UBS relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one ormore areas within UBS, into other areas, units, divisions or affiliates of UBS. Futures and options trading is considered risky. Past performanceof an investment is no guarantee for its future performance. Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and onrealization you may receive back less than you invested or may be required to pay more. Changes in FX rates may have an adverse effect onthe price, value or income of an investment. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicablelaw.

Distributed to US persons by UBS Financial Services Inc. or UBS Securities LLC, subsidiaries of UBS AG. UBS Switzerland AG, UBS DeutschlandAG, UBS Bank, S.A., UBS Brasil Administradora de Valores Mobiliarios Ltda, UBS Asesores Mexico, S.A. de C.V., UBS Securities Japan Co.,Ltd, UBS Wealth Management Israel Ltd and UBS Menkul Degerler AS are affiliates of UBS AG. UBS Financial Services Incorporated ofPuertoRico is a subsidiary of UBS Financial Services Inc. UBS Financial Services Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of a report preparedby a non-US affiliate when it distributes reports to US persons. All transactions by a US person in the securities mentioned in this reportshould be effected through a US-registered broker dealer affiliated with UBS, and not through a non-US affiliate. The contents of this reporthave not been and will not be approved by any securities or investment authority in the United States or elsewhere. UBS Financial ServicesInc. is not acting as a municipal advisor to any municipal entity or obligated person within the meaning of Section 15B of the SecuritiesExchange Act (the "Municipal Advisor Rule") and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute,advice within the meaning of the Municipal Advisor Rule.

UBS specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the prior written permission of UBS.UBS accepts no liability whatsoever for any redistribution of this document or its contents by third parties.

Version as per April 2018.

© UBS 2018. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved.

Real estate markets

Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management 23 May 2018 12