energytransitions& · 2013. 1. 14. · alternativesatacountrylevel & renewables&...
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ENERGY TRANSITIONS Vaclav Smil
MADRID 2013
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What comes next?
Forecasting compulsion Quest for models
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Fisher-Pry model (1971) developed to study the market penetration (adoption) of new techniques (simple two-variable substitutions) Adoption tends to follow a logistic curve, market fraction (f ) of a new technique expressed as f/1-f and plotted on a semi-log graph will appear as a straight line allowing apparently highly reliable forecasts Applied to energy transitions by Marchetti (1977), widely cited
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substitution model (1977)
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Real world is far more complex The model is wrong Energy transition forecasts remain elusive
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Alternatives at a country level
RENEWABLES Hydroenergy Geothermal energy Wind Solar radiation Ocean energy Biomass energies
LOWER CONSUMPTION INCREASED IMPORTS NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY HYDROGEN
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CHALLENGES OF RENEWABLES
Intermittent flows Low power densities Low capacity factors Need for long-‐distance HV transmission Biofuels competing with food and reducing biodiversity
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PHOTOVOLTAICS Olmedilla de Alarcónlargest photovoltaic electricity-generating plant. Installed capacity of 60 peak MW, annual generation of 85 GWh, capacity factor of 16%.
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Gemasolar power density 6.8 W/m2
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-filled Sichuan Basin
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Power densities of biomass production
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Biofuel land claims
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Nautilus, New York 1954
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Success: France >75% electricity from fission
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Failure: Fukushima reactor buildings, March 24 2011
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ASCENT OF LNG
Long technical gestation Decades of high costs and fixed contracts Technical advances and lower shipping costs Eventual increase of sellers and buyers Poised to become a global commodity Derailed by the US shale gas
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Evolution of LNG transportation
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Mozah -Max LNG carrier (266,000 m3)
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PERILS OF FORECASTING
Scientific American in 1913
solve city transportation problems because the vehicular and the pedestrian traffic will be then free to develop itself along its own
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A century later . . .
We have done the very opposite of the 1913 vision as we have raised our highways, some in massive, multiple, disorienting contortions with sidewalks buried deep beneath them.
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May this be the best the West ever gets?
Aging populations Weak economic growth and recessions Stagnant or declining per capita energy consumption Concerns about global environmental change Affluent economies may have reached a temporary plateau to be followed by . . . ?
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