energy research institute of ndrc 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所 energy efficiency:...

Energy Research Institute of NDRC 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

Energy Efficiency: Recent Experience in

China, and Application of LEAP to

Modeling Energy Efficiency Strategies

Energy Research Institute (ERI)

National Development & Reform Commission

Dr. Kang Yanbing

[email protected]

May.14, 2005 for AES 2005


About ERI About ERI The national-level researching agency in the field

of energy issues in China.Researching fields

Energy efficiency (BeCON--Beijing Energy Efficiency Center)

Energy economic (strategy) Energy environmentRenewable energy

RoleProvide policy recommendations for Chinese

governmentProvide consultation for companies and other agencies


OutlineOutlineEnergy issues in ChinaCharacteristics of LEAP modelApplications of LEAP model in ChinaModel scheme Scenario design considerationMain conclusion of previous researches


Energy Issues in ChinaEnergy Issues in ChinaLargest developing country: population and

economy

Rapid growth rate of GDP

Rank the second in energy consumption

Second largest emitter


Energy situation in 2004Energy situation in 2004GDP ： 13651.5 Billion Yuan

Yield of steel ： 273 Mt (128.5 in 2000)

Yield of cement ： 970 Mt (597 in 2000)

Yield of vehicle ： 5.074 Million

Yield of air conditioner ： 66.4622 Million

Yield of refrigerator ： 30.3338 Million

Energy production ： 1846 Mtce consumption ： 1970 Mtce

Coal production ： 1956 Mt consumption ： 1870 Mt

Oil production ： 175 Mt consumption ： 290 Mt

NG consumption ： 41.5 Billion m3

Electricity generation ： 2187 TWh

Power capacity ： 435 GW

Net oil import ：： 144 144 MtMt

Black-outBlack-out ：： 26 26 provinces (summer)provinces (summer) ；； 21 21 provinces (winter)provinces (winter)

GDP ： 13651.5 Billion Yuan

Yield of steel ： 273 Mt (128.5 in 2000)

Yield of cement ： 970 Mt (597 in 2000)

Yield of vehicle ： 5.074 Million

Yield of air conditioner ： 66.4622 Million

Yield of refrigerator ： 30.3338 Million

Energy production ： 1846 Mtce consumption ： 1970 Mtce

Coal production ： 1956 Mt consumption ： 1870 Mt

Oil production ： 175 Mt consumption ： 290 Mt

NG consumption ： 41.5 Billion m3

Electricity generation ： 2187 TWh

Power capacity ： 435 GW

Net oil import ：： 144 144 MtMt

Black-outBlack-out ：： 26 26 provinces (summer)provinces (summer) ；； 21 21 provinces (winter)provinces (winter)


China’s developing goalChina’s developing goalIn 2020, building all-round well-off society

Quadruple the GDP of the year 2000 by 2020Per-capita GDP reach 3000 US$Urbanization rate will be increased to 57%~ 60% by

2020Much more challenges of energy issues in the

future

Necessity of sustainable approaches of development

Many uncertainties in future development

Energy Strategy and Energy Efficiency Priority


Characteristics of LEAP ModelCharacteristics of LEAP ModelEnergy system analysis model:

LEAP, MARKERL, AIM…

Why select LEAP?Future uncertainties in ChinaPredict and scenario analysisPolicy select analysisEasy operation Intuitionistic and friendly interfaceEndless sector & technology division…


Application of LEAP ModelApplication of LEAP ModelScenario analysis on China’s long-term

sustainable energy development and carbon emission. A project sponsored by Energy Foundation and Shell Foundation

Analysis on China’s energy consumption to fulfill the long-term goal of Chinese government. A project cooperating with Energy Foundation and National State Department development center

Study on sustainable development energy strategy. Chinese government project


Application of LEAP ModelApplication of LEAP ModelStudy on the influence of the policy and

technical improvement of building energy efficiency on China’s future energy demand. NDRC fundamental project

Study on the influence of lifestyle change on China’s future energy demand. NDRC key project

Study on China’s CHP developing plan. Chinese government project

Study on building energy efficiency incentive policies in China. Sponsored by Energy Foundation

……


Achievements of LEAP ModelAchievements of LEAP ModelProvide support for “China’s Energy Developing

Strategy”Provide support for “China’s Medium and Long

Term Energy Developing Plan”Provide support for “China’s Medium and Long

Term Energy Conservation Plan”Provide support for “China’s Medium and Long

Term CHP Developing Plan”NDRC 2nd-class AwardsPromote domestic and international cooperation

on China’s energy issue


Achievements of LEAP ModelAchievements of LEAP ModelImprovement of LEAP

Always improvements of the LEAP Model Has obtained related support to improve the current

LEAPPeriod

Base year: 1998, 2000, 2004 End year: 2020, 2030, 2050, 2100

Make each sector, technology more reasonable and useful for different purpose


Model SchemeModel SchemeMajor module

End-use Transformation

Final energy Primary energy


Model SchemeModel SchemeDivision of End-use Sectors

Industry Sub-sector Product TFC

Industry

Transport

Building

Agric.

Constr.

Industry

Petro& Chem.

Chemical

Bldg. material

Iron&Steel

Papermaking

Nonferrous

Other

Glass

Pottery

Cement

Brick&tile

Lime

Mining

Other


Model SchemeModel SchemeDivision of End-use Sectors

Vertical Kiln

Rotary kiln

Kiln with precalcinator

Kiln with waste heat boiler

Wet kiln

Kiln with pre-heater

Long dry kiln

Semi-dry kiln

Coal

Heat

Gas

Oil

Power

Industry Sub-sector Product Process TFC


Building Energy EfficiencyBuilding Energy Efficiency

Fig.2 Influencing factors on building energy consumption

Social &

economics

Energy

development

Population

Urban rate

Economic

Industrial Structure

Building area

Indoor environment

Heat water

Lighting &

appliances

Energy

service

level

Heating region

Air conditioning region

Heating & cooling period

Indoor air quality

Energy

strategy

Energy

efficiency

policy

Environment

policy

Heating load

Energy efficiency of HVAC

Penetration of alliances with high efficiency

Energy

efficiency

Energy fuel optimization

Renewable energy

Regulation

Standard & labeling

Mechanism

GHG

Other pollutants

Energy

consuming

system

Final

Energy

demand

Final

energy

fuel


Building Energy EfficiencyBuilding Energy Efficiency

寒冷 Cold

Severe

Cold

夏热冬冷Hot Summer Cold Winter

Temperate 温和

夏热冬暖Hot Summer Warm Winter

严寒Severe Cold

严寒Severe Cold

寒冷 Cold


Building Energy Building Energy EfficiencyEfficiency

Cooking & Hot water

Household appliances

Gas

LPG

Coal gas

Firewood

Refrigerator

Washing machine

TV

Fan

Lampblack cleaner

Other

Traditional lighting

Coal

Electricity cooker

Green lighting Lighting

Air Conditioning

Air conditioner

Electricity water heater

Gas water heater

Solar water heater

CHP central heating

Coal boiler

Gas boiler

Heat pump

Stove

Electricity heating

North

Transition

Heating

Urban

Rural

Residential

Biomass

Solar


Building Energy Building Energy EfficiencyEfficiency

Coal boiler

Oil boiler

Gas boiler

Air-source heat pump

Geothermal heat pump

Electricity heating

Heating

Electricity central AC

Gas central AC

Air conditioner

Geothermal heat pump

Traditional lighting

Green lighting

Air

Conditioning

Lighting

Other equipments

Commercial

Shop

Office

Hospital

School

Other

Hotel

CHP central heating


Model SchemeModel SchemeSketch of LEAP model


MethodologyMethodology

Scenario designBased on bottom-up, combined with up-downFull scale sector division nationwide


Scenario Design considerationScenario Design considerationMacro parameters

GDP, population, urbanization rate

Activity levelYield of industrial products: steel&iron, cement, car,

building……Product for using-stage: car, building area, household

appliances……

Technical analysis (Energy technology)Fuel mix Energy efficiency Energy & environmental policy, technical improvements

Development of domestic & international market Energy & environmental policy, technical improvements

Development of domestic & international market


Main conclusion of previous researchesMain conclusion of previous researchesChina’s future energy demand is huge

In 2020, TPE: 3000~3200 Mtce (3600 Mtce)Coal: 2500~3000 Mt Oil: 65%~70% importNG: 40% importPower capacity: 900~1000 GWHydro: 80GW(2002) 250 GW (2020)Nuclear:40GW(2000) 400 GW (2020)

GHG: In 2020, 1500 Mt-C, about twice of that in 2000

Energy mix optimization, Coal-based 3 sectors

Energy mix optimization, Coal-based 3 sectors


Main conclusion of previous researchesMain conclusion of previous researchesReasonable energy policy may cut down future energy

demand effectively May cut down over 1000 Mtce (It is possible to quadrupling GDP with

double energy consumption in 2020, but lots of energy polices should be implemented well)

Energy policy Energy fuel optimization Larger industry scale Technical improvements New type industrialization road (Industrial structure adjustment) Energy efficiency standards Energy efficiency labeling Energy efficiency mechanism based on market Renewable energy Energy price Environmental policy ……


Sensitive analysisSensitive analysisInfluence of metering heating mechanism

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

He

atin

g e

ne

rgy

de

ma

nd

(M

tce

) In 2020, about 170 Mtce of heating energyconsumption may be reduced.During 2000~2020, the accumulated heatingenergy reduction may reach 1000 Mtce

S1

S_mh


Sensitive analysisSensitive analysisInfluence of air conditioning energy efficiency

technologies

0

200

400

600

800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Air

co

nd

itio

nin

g e

lect

rici

ty c

on

sum

ptio

n (

TW

h)

In 2020, about 165 TWh of air conditioing electricityconsumption may be reduced.During 2000~2020, the accumulated air conditioingelectricity reduction may reach about 1300 TWh.

S1

S_eAC

In 2020

Cut down 90 GW power capacity

5 Tree-gorge hydro power station

10% of nationwide power capacity

In 2020

Cut down 90 GW power capacity

5 Tree-gorge hydro power station

10% of nationwide power capacity


Sensitive analysisSensitive analysisInfluence of fuel economic standard for cars

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2020

Urb

an

tra

nsp

ort

en

erg

y d

em

an

d (

Mto

e)

Without standard

With standard


Sensitive analysisSensitive analysisInfluence of consuming pattern and lifestyle

In 2020, per-capita living area: 40 m2(S1), 30 m2(S_ba)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Fin

al e

ne

rgy

de

ma

nd

in b

uild

ing

se

cto

r (M

tce

)In 2020, about 100 Mtce of f inal energy demand maybe reduced.During 2000~2020, the accumulated f inal energyreduction may reach 840 Mtce in building sector.

S1

S_ba


ConclusionConclusionIn order to fulfill the developing goal of Chinese

government, huge energy consumption will be needed to support the development of social and economic.Only if the per-capita energy consumption of China

reach the current Japan level, about half of the current total energy consumption in the world will be used in China.

Energy securityRelated environment impact.

Regional environment Global Climate Change (GHG)

China’s energy issue is not only the challenge for China, but also for the world


ConclusionConclusionChinese Government must select a sustainable

developing pathway (with the assistance from the world)

Energy system analysis and energy policy analysis based on LEAP may make more contribution to help Chinese government solve the energy challenges.


谢谢 !Thank You!

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