ERC11

Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town

Alison Hughes

ERC22

What do we seekWhat do we seek

Quantitative insights into challenges we faceQuantitative insights into challenges we face

Contribute to economic, social and environmental Contribute to economic, social and environmental sustainabilitysustainability

Reduce the risks to the country of coming challenges such Reduce the risks to the country of coming challenges such as peak oil and meeting our international climate change as peak oil and meeting our international climate change commitmentscommitments

Meet complex policy challenges such as:Meet complex policy challenges such as: energy securityenergy security delivering energy services to the poordelivering energy services to the poor improving energy efficiencyimproving energy efficiency making energy markets work bettermaking energy markets work better mitigating negative impact of the energy system on mitigating negative impact of the energy system on

health and the environment.health and the environment.

ERC33

What do we need?What do we need? The right information, analytical tools, appropriate skills, The right information, analytical tools, appropriate skills,

Institutional networks, sustained commitment Institutional networks, sustained commitment

Sustained commitment to develop and Sustained commitment to develop and resource energy planning resource energy planning

Move away from adhoc reactive approachMove away from adhoc reactive approach Multidisciplinary research teams Multidisciplinary research teams Link modelling frameworks in innovative waysLink modelling frameworks in innovative ways

Spatial infrastructure requirementsSpatial infrastructure requirements Energy economy linkages – socialEnergy economy linkages – social Energy environment linkagesEnergy environment linkages Technology development and characterisationTechnology development and characterisation

multi year data planmulti year data plan

ERC44

Modelling ERCModelling ERC

ERC55

Thank youThank you

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1. Sustained commitment1. Sustained commitment

Internationally, governments only tend to support energy Internationally, governments only tend to support energy policy and planning during energy crises – this is too late!policy and planning during energy crises – this is too late!

Without sustained support, systems have to be put in place Without sustained support, systems have to be put in place from scratch, capacity needs to be developed from scratch, from scratch, capacity needs to be developed from scratch, etc, every couple of yearsetc, every couple of years

Energy planning needs to be supported on a long-term Energy planning needs to be supported on a long-term basis, to reduce risk to the country from energy crises and/or basis, to reduce risk to the country from energy crises and/or price shocksprice shocks

policies---

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2. The right information2. The right information

Data is needed in the following areas:Data is needed in the following areas: Energy supply and demand dataEnergy supply and demand data Data on existing and new technologiesData on existing and new technologies Data on environmental impactsData on environmental impacts Contextual data: economic growth, demographic Contextual data: economic growth, demographic

informationinformation Social and cultural contextSocial and cultural context

Data needs to be collected more systematically, and housed Data needs to be collected more systematically, and housed (and documented) systematically and accessibly – it needs a (and documented) systematically and accessibly – it needs a long-term homelong-term home

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3. Analytical tools3. Analytical tools

Energy modelling is a very powerful tool for energy planning, Energy modelling is a very powerful tool for energy planning, as it facilitates the rational consideration of alternative as it facilitates the rational consideration of alternative futures in complex systemsfutures in complex systems

Energy models are time-consuming and expensive to set up, Energy models are time-consuming and expensive to set up, but require less resources to maintainbut require less resources to maintain

A wide range of models are available – we need to choose A wide range of models are available – we need to choose models taking into account local realities, including models taking into account local realities, including availability of data and skillsavailability of data and skills

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4. Appropriate skills4. Appropriate skills

A range of skills needed in various contexts: A range of skills needed in various contexts: data gathering and management, data gathering and management, energy analysis and modelling, energy analysis and modelling, policy formulation and analysis, policy formulation and analysis, building and maintaining stakeholders networks, building and maintaining stakeholders networks, communicating resultscommunicating results

All these skills currently exist in South Africa – challenge is All these skills currently exist in South Africa – challenge is to integrate these appropriately, and not keep re-inventing to integrate these appropriately, and not keep re-inventing the wheelthe wheel

Support needed for capacity-building programmes, both in Support needed for capacity-building programmes, both in government departments and at tertiary institutionsgovernment departments and at tertiary institutions

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5. Institutional networks5. Institutional networks

Should emphasise an integrated approach, building on Should emphasise an integrated approach, building on existing institutional strengths – we need a networkexisting institutional strengths – we need a network

We need economies of scaleWe need economies of scale

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Energy Research CentreEnergy Research Centre Modelling capacity- we lose Modelling capacity- we lose

capacity to other international capacity to other international institutions IAEA, BNL institutions IAEA, BNL

Existing analytical toolsExisting analytical tools National MARKAL model National MARKAL model

(ETSAP)(ETSAP) Updated since the first Updated since the first

IEPIEP Reviewed by AEAT Reviewed by AEAT

TIMES (ETSAP)TIMES (ETSAP) Message (IAEA)Message (IAEA) LEAP (SEI)LEAP (SEI)

Training Training Existing Masters and PhD Existing Masters and PhD

programmes,programmes, Government officers from 14 Government officers from 14

African countriesAfrican countries

Longstanding relationships and Longstanding relationships and networking networking

Policy

Poverty and development

Energy efficiency

Analysis and planning

Climate change

ERC1212

What is integrated energy planning?What is integrated energy planning?

A recognition that energy is an important area for A recognition that energy is an important area for government involvementgovernment involvement

Planning for the whole energy sector, i.e. making decisions Planning for the whole energy sector, i.e. making decisions about the energy system in its entirety about the energy system in its entirety

Integrating key government agencies in energy policy Integrating key government agencies in energy policy decision-making and implementation, at all levels of decision-making and implementation, at all levels of governmentgovernment

A process, rather than a productA process, rather than a product

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6. Stakeholder participation6. Stakeholder participation

Who are stakeholders:Who are stakeholders: Energy sectorEnergy sector Big and small energy usersBig and small energy users Government (local, regional and national)Government (local, regional and national) Civil societyCivil society

Critical to get buy-in to the planning process from as many Critical to get buy-in to the planning process from as many stakeholders as possiblestakeholders as possible

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7. Political will7. Political will

Decisive political leadership and support is required to make Decisive political leadership and support is required to make IEP meaningful and effective across governmentIEP meaningful and effective across government

Resources need to be dedicated to the process on a long-Resources need to be dedicated to the process on a long-term basisterm basis