energy for one world- future energy predictions
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Future Energy PredictionsEnegy For One World- All Rights ReservedTRANSCRIPT
FUTURE ENERGY PREDICTIONS
Energy For One World
04/10/2023 Energy For One World- All rights reserved
Some key factors and assumptions determining the outlook
• Geopolitics, Economies and Economies stabilities;
• GDP- total, growth rates, per region, per country, per capita
• Population and population growth rates
• Energy Demand- world, per region, per country, per capita
• Energy Supply per Fuel Type, world, per region, per country
• Energy pricings – based on demand and supply balances, and costs of new production units and reserves replenishment/depletion
• Ecological Footprint, Emissions, Waste, Damage to nature
• Technology and technology breakthroughs, including energy efficiency gains
• Energy Transition Management & Managing the Mix Actively
04/10/2023 Energy For One World- All rights reserved
BP Statistical Review- 2012
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The Big Gap- Jumping the Gap
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Energy price development
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The link between the economy and energy
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Predictions and outlook vary widely over background and interests of parties
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Energy Scenario for coming decades
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How good are we at predicting our present energy future?
How good are we managing our present energy future?
Are we in control?
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IEA2000
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2006
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2010
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2011
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Game changing the Agenda: Energy Accounting
Energy Transition management
Business and Politics, East and West, Clean-tech and Conventionals, Rich and Poor
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04/10/2023
Energy For One World Proposal: A fresh approach to build our future
Energy For One World- All rights reserved
Energy transition management per global wealth cluster- and based on a common agenda, a global and regional dialogue, inventory and action plan
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The need for energy transition management in each region, each sector
Courtesy: Delphi Foundation
04/10/2023 Energy For One World- All rights reserved
Lead time and lifetime matter
Buildings
Hydroelectricity plants
Nuclear plants
Coal power stations
Gas turbines
Vehicles
The rate of technological change is related to lead times to develop new equipment, obtain permits to deploy, and lifetimes of capital stock and equipment
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Time in years
Source: Shell Energy Scenarios
Taking into consideration existing infrastructure, interests or , serious construction capacity constraints...
Building cost: 3000 €/ kWCO2 emission: - kg/ MwhConstruction L.T. : 6 yearsFuel costs: 5 €/Mwh
Building cost: 1285 €/ kWCO2 emission: 750 kg/ MwhConstruction L.T. : 4 yearsFuel costs: 15 €/Mwh
Building cost: 672€/ kWCO2 emission: 350 kg/ MwhConstruction L.T. : 2 yearsFuel costs: 30 €/Mwh
04/10/2023 Energy For One World- All rights reserved
Conclusions
04/10/2023 Energy For One World- All rights reserved