Energy: Broad Picture

and Projects in Europe

Professor Leonid Grigoryev Head of Chair – Global Economy

at Higher School of Economics - Moscow Chief Advisor for Analytical Center

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South Stream: route

Source: Gazprom

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GDP growth 1990 – 2018 (IMF forecast), by country groups

Source: IMF

Population of the world UN forecast, 2010 – 2040, by region

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Population, GDP and energy consumption growth ERI RAS / AC forecast, 2010 – 2040, by region

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Source: World Bank, BP

Energy intensity of GDP 2000-2012, toe / th. 2005$ (PPP-based)

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Average GDP growth (left) & GDP structure (right) ERI RAS / AC forecast, 2010 – 2040, by region

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World primary energy consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, by fuel, 2010, 2040

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Structure of global consumption of energy sources by sector, mtoe

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

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Electricity and heat

Construction, agriculture

Industry

Other sectors

Non-energy consumption

Transport

mtoe

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

Other RES

Projected price range of equilibrium oil price ERI RAS / AC forecast, 2010 – 2040, $2010 per barrel

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Natural gas consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, 2010 – 2040, by region

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Natural gas production ERI RAS / AC forecast, 2010 – 2040, by region

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Coal consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, 2010 – 2040, by region

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RES consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, 2010 – 2040, by region

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Industrial production 2000 – 2013, by country

Source: World Bank

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GDP and primary energy consumption average annual growth, 1986 – 2012, %

Source: BP, World Bank, IMF, OECD; * - Russian economic growth since 1990

Oil and gas consumption average annual growth, 1986 – 2012, %

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Source: BP, World Bank, IMF, OECD

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Source: BP, World Bank, IMF, OECD

Coal consumption & electricity generation average annual growth, 1986 – 2012, %

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Source: BP

Global energy prices 2000 – 2012, $ per boe  

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Source: BP

Global CO2 emission 1990 – 2012, by country  

Gas pipeline projects in Southeastern Europe

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Nabucco West

Nabucco (old)

SEEP TAP

TANAP South Stream

ITGI

Source: WINGAS

Natural gas imports to Europe bcm, shares of LNG and Russian supplies, 2000-2012

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Source: BP, IEA, AC estimates

Global gas prices $ / th. cubic m, 2008 - 2013

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Source: IMF, ICE, Bloomberg

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European carbon price (EUA) and price of gas/coal switching for power stations, 2006 - 2013  

Source: Thomson Reuters, AC estimates

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Gas-to-Coal Switching in European Union, 2010 – …  

Source: BP

Forecasts of EU natural gas net imports in 2020 IEA, European Commission

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Source: IEA, European Commission

Weighted average price of gas ERI RAS / AC forecast, 2010 – 2040, by regional markets

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South Stream: route

Source: Gazprom

Global and Russian Energy Outlook (non official)

Co-authors:   The Energy Research

Institute of The Russian Academy of Sciences

  Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation

www.eriras.ru www.ac.gov.ru

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