energy and income: still your best bet for high yield, safety and growth roger s. conrad capitalist...
TRANSCRIPT
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ENERGY AND INCOME: STILL YOUR BEST BET FOR HIGH YIELD, SAFETY AND GROWTH
ROGER S. CONRADCAPITALIST TIMES
DC AREA AAII, JULY 2013
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STOCKS CIRCA 2013
• BULL MARKET AGING = 4 YEARS PLUS• SAME GLOBAL, US ECONOMY SINCE 2009• BIG MONEY DOMINATES TRADING• YIELD SEEKING TEMPERED BY DIVIDEND CUTS• COMMODITIES WEAK ON ASIA FEARS• DOLLAR STRONG BUT FED EASING CONTINUES• ENERGY RALLIES STEALTHILY
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DAY OF THE DOLLAR
Yen
Euro
CAD
AUD
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
5-Year12-Mo2013
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THE “RIGHT” STRATEGY
• HIGHER PRICES MEAN HIGHER EXPECTATIONS• MOMENTUM TRUMPS VALUE IN NEAR TERM,
NOT IN LONG TERM• GROWING BUSINESSES BUILD WEALTH• SELECTIVITY ON PRICE AND QUALITY MORE
IMPORTANT THAN EVER• USE MOMENTUM TO BUY LOW, SELL HIGH• OWN HIGH INCOME ENERGY
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ENERGY TOPS METALS
Gold
Copper
Nat Gas
Oil
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40
5-Yr12-Mo2013
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WHY ENERGY?
• GLOBAL INTENSITY STILL GROWING• PRICE KEEPS PACE WITH INFLATION• THE GREAT NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY BOOM
= MASSIVE OPPORTUNITIES• RECURRING INCOME COMBINED WITH
RELIABLE HEDGING IS CONDUCIVE TO PAYING BIG DIVIDENDS
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ENERGY INVESTING RULES
• GREATER DIRECT EXPOSURE TO ENERGY PRICES MEANS MORE RISK TO DIVIDENDS
• SWEET YIELDS CAN BRING SOUR CONSEQUENCES
• DON’T OVER-FOCUS, SPREAD THE WEALTH• WATCH COMPANIES, NOT THEORIES• DON’T BE AFRAID TO SELL THE BLIPS AND BUY
THE DIPS
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WHERE ENERGY VALUES LIVE
• SELECTED MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS• MISUNDERSTOOD UTILITIES• CANADA ON THE CHEAP• AUSTRALIA RESETS FOR VALUE• EUROPEAN SUPER OILS• US ROYALTY TRUSTS: OWN A WELL
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MLPS LEAD
Alerian MLP
Dow Utilities
NYSE Arca Oil
S&P TSX En
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
5-Years12-Months2013
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MLP PROS AND CONS
• TAPPED INTO GREAT NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY BOOM
• RISING DISTRIBUTIONS PUSH CAPITAL GAINS• MANY FAVORITES PRICEY = LOW YIELDS• TAXATION IN THE BACKGROUND• FOCUS ON QUALITY AND PRICE ARE KEY• SOME MLPS MERIT TAKING PROFITS
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MLP PICKS AND PANS
• MIDSTREAM BUYS: EEP, KMP• PRODUCER PICKS: VNR, LGCY• SPECIAL SITUATIONS: CLMT• PRICEY: GEL, MMP• DIVIDENDS AT RISK: NS, NMM• WHAT ABOUT LINN ENERGY?
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UTILITY VALUES
• 10-YEAR PLUS TREND OF GETTING STRONGER• CAPITAL SPENDING + REGULATORY SUPPORT =
RISING DIVIDENDS, CAPITAL GAINS• SECTOR AVERAGES MASK VALUE AND
OVERVALUE• REGULATED VS UNREGULATED REVENUE• VALUE: RENEWABLE ENERGY, T&D, NUCLEAR
POWER
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UTILITY PICKS AND PANS
• REGULATED STARS: SO, D• PLAYING THE POWER MARKET: NRG• RENEWABLES: DUK, NJR• NUCLEAR POWER: EXC• SPECIAL SITUATIONS: ETR• HIGH PRICED: ANY UTILITY WITH YIELD PLUS
GROWTH LESS THAN 8%--ATO
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CANADA CHEAPER
• STOCKS LOWER ON CANADIAN DOLLAR, COMMODITY/GROWTH WORRIES
• CONSERVATIVE IS STILL COOL• LONG-TERM RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT WITH
FRIENDLY REGULATION• US ENERGY BOOM = EXPORT BOTTLENECKS• SOME FORMER TRUSTS RE-EVALUATE
DIVIDENDS
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BUYING CANADA
• SPLIT COVERAGE: EIA = ENERGY, CT = THE REST• SOME QUALITY CRITERIA: PAYOUT RATIO,
DEBT, REVENUE STABILITY, DIVIDEND GROWTH• CAPITAL ACCESS INCREASINGLY KEY• RENEWABLE ENERGY: BEP, INGXF• ENERGY PRODUCERS: CSCTF, VET, PGH• ENERGY MIDSTREAM: PBA, TRP• WHAT ABOUT AT AND JE?
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AUSTRALIA’S VALUE RESET
• ASIA WORRIES = BIG DROP IN A$• LOWER A$ = LOWER STOCK PRICES BUT RELIEF
FOR BIG RESOURCE COMPANIES’ HIGH COSTS• LONG RUN FUNDAMENTALS INTACT = ASIAN
DEMAND + RESOURCE WEALTH• NEW PM’S REGULATORY OPENING• UTILITY-LIKE INCOME: APAJF, AGLNY• LNG BOOM: OISHY
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EUROPE’S SUPER OILS
• EURO AN OVERVALUED CURRENCY• AUSTERITY’S DAYS NUMBERED• SUPER OILS TRANSCEND THE TROUBLES• BIG DISCOUNTS TO US SUPERS• BEST BUYS: E, TOT• FILE A 1116
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INAUSPICIOUS BEGINNINGS
CHKR
PER
ROYT
SDR
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Inception12-Month2013
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IT’S ALL IN THE WELLS
• TRUSTS ISSUED TO FINANCE WELLS• ROYALTY TRUSTS PAY ON PRODUCTION +
PRICE, BOTH CAN VARY• OVER-HYPED AT IPOS, CRASHED ON
EXAGGERATED RISKS• HUGE YIELDS VARIABLE BUT MARGIN FOR
ERROR IS GREAT• MORE OILY: PER, ROYT
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SUMMER BUYS
• MLPS: EEP (32, 6.7%), KMP (88, 6.0%), LGCY (32, 8.5%), VNR (30, 9.0%)
• UTES: D(55,3.8%),DUK(65,4.4%),ETR (75, 4.7%), EXC(35,4%),NRG(28,1.7%),SO(45, 4.5%)
• CAN: BEP(32,5.2%),CSCTF(48,7.3%),INGXF (10, 6.6%),PBA(33,4.9%),PGH(6,8.1%),VET, TRP
• AUST:AGLNY(15,4.6%),APAJF(6,6.2%),OISHY(8)• EURO SUPERS: E(50,6.5%),TOT(55,6%)
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CONRAD MOVES ON
• ENERGY AND INCOME ADVISOR• CAPITALIST TIMES• CONRAD’S UTILITY INVESTOR• CALL SHERRY 1-888-960-2759• www.conradutilityinvestor.com• [email protected]• [email protected]