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ENERGIJAENERGIJA

CONTENTSSADRAJ

01/08IZDAVAHrvatska elektroprivreda d.d., Zagreb

SUIZDAVAISveuilite u Zagrebu, Fakultet elektrotehnike i raunarstvaMinistarstvo gospodarstva, rada i poduzetnitva

ZA IZDAVAA

Mr. sc. Ivan MravakPOMO U IZDAVANJUMinistarstvo znanosti, obrazovanja i porta

UREIVAKI SAVJETMr. sc. Kaimir Vranki, (predsjednik), Zagreb doc. dr. sc.Ante urkovi, Zagreb prof. dr. sc. Igor Dekani, Zagreb prof. dr. sc. Danilo Fereti, Zagreb mr. sc. Nikica Grubii,Zagreb prof. dr. sc. Slavko Krajcar, Zagreb doc. dr. sc.eljko Tomi, Zagreb doc. dr. sc. Mladen Zeljko, Zagreb

UREIVAKI ODBORGlavni urednik Mr. sc. Goran Slipac, ZagrebGlavni tajnik Mr. sc. Slavica Barta-Kotrun, ZagrebLektor imun agalj, prof., ZagrebMetroloka recenzija Dragan Borojevi, dipl. ing., ZagrebPrijevod Hrvatsko drutvo znanstvenih i tehnikih pre-voditelja Prevoditeljski centar, ZagrebUREDNITVO I UPRAVAHEP d.d. - EnergijaUlica grada Vukovara 37, 10000 Zagreb, HrvatskaTelefoni: +385 (1) 6171291 i 6322641Telefaks: +385 (1) 6322143e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

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Godinja pretplata za inozemstvo iznosi USD 95.Devizni raun:Zagrebaka banka broj: 2000006299

Gra ko ureenje omota - mr. sc. Kaimir Vranki, ZagrebGra ko ureivanje Bestias dizajn. d.o.o., ZagrebTisak intergra ka d.o.o., Zagreb

Naklada 1 500 primjerakaGodite 57(2008)Zagreb, 2008Broj 1., str. 1-118

Oglasi su veliine jedne stranice. Cijena oglasa je 3 000 knbez PDV (22%).

PUBLISHED BYHrvatska elektroprivreda d.d., Zagreb

CO-PUBLISHED BYUniversity of Zagreb, Fakulty of Electrical Engineering and Com-puting Ministry of Economy, Labour and Entrepreneurship

PUBLISHERS REPRESENTATIVEIvan Mravak, MSc

SUPPORTED BYMinistry of Science, Education and Sport

EDITORIAL COUNCILKaimir Vranki, MSc, (Chairman), Zagreb Assistant Prof Anteurkovi, PhD, Zagreb Prof Igor Dekani, PhD, Zagreb ProfDanilo Fereti, PhD, Zagreb Nikica Grubii, MSc, Zagreb Prof Slavko Krajcar, PhD, Zagreb Assistant Prof eljko Tomi,PhD, Zagreb Assistant Prof Mladen Zeljko, PhD, Zagreb

EDITORIAL BOARDEditor-in-chief Goran Slipac, MSC, ZagrebSecretary Slavica Barta-Kotrun, MSc, ZagrebLanguage Editor imun agalj, prof., ZagrebMetrology Dragan Borojevi, dipl. ing., ZagrebTranslation Croatian Association of Scientific and TechnicalTranslators Croatian Translation Agency, ZagrebHEAD OFFICE AND MANAGEMENTHEP d.d. - EnergijaUlica grada Vukovara 37, 10000 Zagreb, HrvatskaTelephone: +385 (1) 6171291 i 6322641Fax: +385 (1) 6322143e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

Appears 6 times a year.Annual subsription fee excl. VAT (22 %): for individual subscribers HRK 250 for companies HRK 400 for students HRK 60Number of fgyro account whit Zagrebaka Banka:2360000-1400129978

Annual subscription fee for the overseas: USD 95.Number of foreign currency account whit Zagrebaka Banka:2000006299

Cover design Kaimir vranki, MSc, ZagrebGraphic layout Bestias Dizajn d.o.o., ZagrebPrinted by Intergra ka d.o.o., Zagreb

Circulation 1 500 copiesVolume 57(2008)Zagreb, 2008No. 1., p. p. 1-118

Ads are the size of the page. The price of an ad is HRK 3 000excl. VAT (22 %).

Jelavi, B., Zeljko, M.ENERGETSKA BUDUNOST KROZ STUDIJE WAC-A(pregledni lanak)Klepo, M., Mikulii, V., imi, Z.MODEL CRPNO-AKUMULACIJSKE (REVERZIBILNE)HIDROELEKTRANE U MODELU POUZDANOSTI IRASPOLOIVOSTI ELEKTROENERGETSKOG SUSTAVA(izvorni znanstveni lanak)

Krajcar, S., Milo Spri, D., Spri, P.UTJECAJ TEORIJA O UPRAVLJANJU RIZICIMA NA UPOTRE-BU IZVEDENICA U ELEKTROENERGETSKOJ INDUSTRIJI(izvorni znanstveni lanak)

Wagmann, L., utobradi, S., Puhari, M.PRORAUNA MTU SIGNALA U 110 KV MREI(prethodno priopenje)

asopis je ubiljeen u Ministarstvu znanosti, obrazovanja iporta pod brojem 161 od 12.11.1992.

asopis je indeksiran u sekundarnom bibliografaskom izvoruINSPEC The Institution of Electrical Engineering, England.

Jelavi, B., Zeljko, M.WEC STUDIES ON ENERGY FUTURE(review article)Klepo, M., Mikulii, V., imi, Z.THE PUMPED-STORAGE HYDRO POWER PLANT MODELWITHIN IN THE POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY AND AVAIL-ABILITY MODEL(original scienti c article)

Krajcar, S., Milo Spri, D., Spri, P.THE INFLUENCE OF RISK MANAGEMENT THEORIES ON THEUSE OF DERIVATIVES IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY (original scienti c article)

Wagmann, L., utobradi, S., Puhari, M.A METHOD FOR CALCULATING THE RIPPLE CONTROL SIGNALIN A 110 KV NETWORK(preliminary information)

The journal is registered with the Ministry of Science, Educationand Sport under No. 161 since 12.11.1992

The journal is indexed with the secondary reference source ofINSPEC The Institution of Electrical Engineering, England.

001-037

038-063

064-087

088-115

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UREIVAKA POLITIKAasopis Energija znanstveni je i struni asopiss dugom tradicijom vie od 50 godina. Pokrivapodruje elektroprivredne djelatnosti i energe-tike. asopis Energija objavljuje izvorne znanst-vene i strune lanke irokog podruja interesa,od speci nih tehnikih problema do globalnihanaliza procesa u podruju energetike.

U vrlo irokom spektru tema vezanih za funk-cioniranje elektroprivredne djelatnosti i openitoenergetike u trinim uvjetima i opoj global-izaciji, asopis ima poseban interes za speci neokolnosti ostvarivanja tih procesa u Hrvatskoj injezinu regionalnom okruenju. Funkcioniranjei razvoj elektroenergetskih sustava u sredinjoj i jugoistonoj Europi, a posljedino i u Hrvatskoj,optereeno je mnogobrojinm tehniko-tehnolokim, ekonomskim, pravnim i orga-nizacijskim problemima. Namjera je asopisada postane znanstvena i struna tribina na kojoje se kritiki i konstruktivno elaborirati nave-dena problematika i ponuditi rjeenja.

asopis je posebno zainteresiran za sljedeutematiku: opa energetika, tehnologije zaproizvodnju elektrine energije, obnovljivi iz-vori i zatita okolia; koritenje i razvoj ener-getske opreme i sustava; funkcioniranje elek-troenergetskog sustava u trinim uvjetimaposlovanja; izgradnja elektroenergetskih ob- jekata i postrojenja; informacijski sustavi itelekomunikacije; restrukturiranje i privatizacija,reinenjering poslovnih procesa; trgovanje i op-skrba elektrinom energijom, odnosi s kupcima;upravljanje znanjem i obrazovanje; europska iregionalana regulativa, inicijative i suradnja.

Stranice asopisa podjednako su otvorene iskus-nim i mladim autorima, te autorima iz Hrvatskei inozemstva. Takva zastupljenost autora osigu-rava znanje i mudrost, inventivnost i hrabrost, tepluralizam ideja koje e itatelji asopisa, vje-rujemo, cijeniti i znati dobro iskoristiti u svojemprofesionalnom radu.

EDITORIAL POLICYThe journal Energy is a scienti c and professional journal with more than a 50-year tradition. Cover-ing the areas of the electricity industry and energysector, the journal Energy publishes original sci-enti c and professional articles with a wide areaof interests, from speci c technical problems toglobal analyses of processes in the energy sector.

Among the very broad range of topics relatingto the functioning of the electricity industry andthe energy sector in general in a competitive andglobalizing environment, the Journal has specialinterest in the speci c circumstances in whichthese processes unfold in Croatia and the region.The functioning and development of electricitysystems in Central and South East Europe, con-sequently in Croatia too, is burdened with nu-merous engineering, economic, legal and orga-nizational problems. The intention of the Journalis to become a scienti c and professional forumwhere these problems will be critically and con-structively elaborated and where solutions willbe offered.

The Journal is especially interested in the follow-ing topics: energy sector in general, electricityproduction technologies, renewable sources andenvironmental protection; use and developmentof energy equipment and systems; functioningof the electricity system in competitive marketconditions; construction of electric power facili-ties and plants; information systems and tele-communications; restructuring and privatization,re-engineering of business processes; electricitytrade and supply, customer relations, knowledgemanagement and training; European and regionallegislation, initiatives and cooperation.

The pages of the Journal are equally open to ex-perienced and young authors, from Croatia andabroad. Such representation of authors providesknowledge and wisdom, inventiveness and cour-age as well as pluralism of ideas which we believethe readers of the Journal will appreciate andknow how to put to good use in their professionalwork.

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UVODINTRODUCTION

4

Dragi itatelji,pred sobom imate prvi broj asopisa Energija u 2008.godini ime ulazimo u 57. godinu postojanja asopisaEnergija i treu godinu kao meunarodnog asopisa.Nema sumnje kako asopis Energija zauzima vanuulogu u aktualnom kontekstu opih energetskihdogaanja.

asopis Energija zamiljen je kao mjesto na kojemuse mogu promovirati razmiljanja, spoznaje, stavovei ideje na temama vezanim ne samo uz globalne

energetske probleme nego i uz regionalnu i loka-lnu energetsku problematiku zemalja u okruenjua napose zemalja jugoistone Europe. Razliitisu aspekti energetskog sektora, od energetskih,ekonomskih, ekolokih pa sve do organizacijskih igeopolitikih problema a napose je zanimljiv njihovmeusobni utjecaj. S obzirom da je asopis Energijavrlo uspjean spoj znanosti i struke, pozivamo autoreiz Hrvatske i susjednih zemalja da iskoriste asopisza rjeavanje energetske problematike odnosnotema od zajednikog interesa.

U ovom broju asopisa Energija, objavljujemo lanke

koji su na odreeni nain vezani uz globalni ener-getski te elektroenergetski sektor a isto tako i lankeiz pojedinih specijalistikih podruja elektrotehnike:

Energetska budunost kroz studije WEC-a, Model crpno-akumulacijske (reverzibilne)

hidroelektrane u modelu pozdanosti iraspoloivosti elektroenergetskog sustava,

Utjecaj teorija o upravljanju rizicima na up-otrebu izvedenica u elektroenergetskoj indus-triji,

Proraun MTU signala u 110 kV mrei.

U prvom lanku prikazani su rezultati studija kojesu u zadnje tri godine izraene u koordinaciji ili podpokroviteljstvom WEC-a (Svjetskog energetskogkongresa). U lanku se daje prikaz procjena potrebaza energijom u svijetu u horizontu do 2050. godine ito u etiri osnovna scenarija za svaku regiju poseb-no (Afrika, Azija, Europa, Latinska Amerika i Kar-ibi i Sjeverna Amerika). Isto tako daje se dinamikaglobalnih energetskih trita za kljune energenteuz konstataciju kako je mogue zadovoljiti buduusvjetsku energetsku potronju i sauvati okoli tenain ivota. U lanku se nadalje daje komentar naklimatske promjene, ranjivost energetskog sustavaa raspravlja se i o pitanju budunosti nuklearne en-ergije.

Dear Readers,You have before you the rst issue of Energija for theyear 2008, marking its 57th year of existence and itsthird year as an international journal. The journal En-ergija has undoubtedly assumed an important role inthe current context of general energetics.

The journal Energija has been conceived as a forumwhere it is possible to promote discussion, knowl-edge, positions and ideas regarding topics connectednot only with global energy problems but also the re-

gional and local energy problems of the surroundingcountries, particularly the countries of South EasternEurope. There are various aspects of the energy sec-tor, including economic, ecologic, organizational andgeopolitical problems, the interactions of which are ofparticular interest. Since the journal Energija is a verysuccessful blend of science and industry, we invite au-thors from Croatia and the neighboring countries touse the journal for resolving energy problems, i.e. top-ics of common interest.

In this issue of the journal Energija, we present articlesthat are connected with global energetics and the elec-

tric power sector, together with articles from individualspecialized areas of electrical engineering:

WEC Studies on Energy Future, The Pumped-Storage Hydro Power Plant Model

within the Power System Reliability and Availabil-ity Model,

The In uence of Risk Management Theories onthe Use of Derivatives in the Electric Power In-dustry,

A Method for Calculating the Ripple Control Sig-nal in a 110 kV Network.

In the rst article, the results of a study are present-ed that was conducted during the past three years incoordination with and under the sponsorship of theWorld Energy Congress (WEC). The article providesestimates of world energy requirements until the year2050 in four basic scenarios for each separate region(Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean,and North America). The dynamics of the global en-ergy markets for key fuels are demonstrated, as wellas a scenario for meeting future energy consumptionwhile preserving the environment and way of life. Thearticle also provides commentary on climate changes,the vulnerability of the energy system and the future ofnuclear energy.

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5

Jedan originalan model crpno-akumulacijskeodnosno reverzibilne hidroelektrane u modelupouzdanosti elektroenergetskog sustava opisan jeu drugom lanku. Posebno su analizirani razliitiaspekti pouzdanosti rada crpno-akumulacijskehidroelektrane kao to je rizik zbog nedostatkadotoka i zaliha vode kao i utjecaj tog rizika na rad

crpno-akumulacijske hidroelektrane. Radi se o vrlozanimljivom lanku koji daje doprinos dosadanjojteoriji pouzdanosti i raspoloivosti elektroenerget-kog sustava.

Danas se praktiki moe ustvrditi kako strunu javnost sve vie zanimaju teme vezane uz procjenerizika bilo koje oni vrste bili kao i teme vezane uz up-ravljanje rizicima. O tomu svedoe brojni do sada ob- javljeni lanci u razliitim strunim asopisima kaoi u asopisu Energija. U treem lanku ovog brojadaje se jedna vrlo zanimljiva analiza koja obraujetestiranje hipoteza vezanih uz opravdanost funkcije

upravljanja rizicima i njezin utjecaj na poveanjevrijednosti poduzea koja su lanovi Europskogudruenja trgovaca energijom. Posebno su zanimljivizakljuci analiza o tomu kakva je veza karakterisitikapoduzea i naina koritenja unaprijednica, ronica,opcija ili zamjena kao instrumenta zatite od rizikapromjene cijene elektrine energije.

U etvrtom lanku opisuje se jedna metoda zaproraun irenja MTU (ton-frekvencijsko upravljanje) signala na 110 kV razini. Naime, mreno MTU jedna je od najrasprostranjenijih metoda za upravljanje brojilima u elektrodistribucijskoj mrei. Pose-

ban kvalitet metodi daju i mjerenja koja su obavljenana realnoj distribucijskoj mrei i koja su predloenumetodu i potvrdila. Autori su temeljem izloene me-tode i frekvencijski ovisnog modela mree napravilii dodatni modul u programskom paketu NetHarmov.5.0.

lanke u ovom broju asopisa Energija potpisujedvanaest autora iz sveuiline zajednice ali i izprakse to je, sasvim sigurno, rezultiralo i kvalitet-nim lancima pa se nadam kako e Vam ovi lancibiti vrlo zanimljivi.

Glavni urednikMr. sc. Goran Slipac

An original pumped-storage hydro power plantmodel within a power system reliability and avail-ability model is described in the second article. Vari-ous aspects of the reliability of the operation of apumped-storage hydro power plant are analyzed,such as the impact of in ow de ciency and waterstorage risks on the operation of a pumped-storage

hydro power plant. This is a highly interesting articlethat contributes to the theory of the reliability andavailability of the energy system.

The professional public is increasingly interestedin topics connected with various types of risk as-sessment and risk management. This is evidentfrom the many articles that have been published invarious professional journals, including the journalEnergija. In the third article of this issue, a very in-teresting analysis is provided that tests the validityof assumptions relating the justi cation of the riskmanagement function and its impact on the in-

crease in the value of companies that are membersof the European Federation of Energy Traders. Ofparticular interest are the conclusions regardingthe characteristics of companies and their mannerof using forwards, futures, options or swaps as toolsto offset the risk of energy price changes.

In the fourth article, a method is described for thecalculation of the propagation of the ripple controlsignal in a 110 kV network. Ripple control is oneof the most widely used methods for the control ofmeters in electrical distribution networks. Mea-surements performed on an actual distribution net-

work con rm the proposed method. Based uponthe calculation model presented, a special modulewas devised for the calculation of the ripple controlsignal as a supplement to the software packageNetHarmo v.5.0.

The articles in this issue of the journal Energija havebeen signed by twelve authors from academia andindustry. We believe that you will nd them highlyinteresting.

Editor-in-chiefGoran Slipac, MSc

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6Jelavi, B., Zeljko, M., Energetska budunost kroz studije WEC-a, Energija, god. 57(2008), br. 1., str. 637Jelavi, B., Zeljko, M., WEC studies on energy future, Energija, vol. 57(2008), No. 1., pp. 637

ENERGETSKA BUDUNOSKROZ STUDIJE WEC-a

WEC STUDIES ON ENERGYFUTUREBranka Jelavi - Mladen Zeljko, Zagreb, Hrvatska

Brian Statham, Johannesburg, South Africa

U lanku se daje pregled studija koje su u razdoblju od 2005. do 2007. godineizraene u koordinaciji i pod pokroviteljstvom WEC-a. Studije su obradile

energetski sektor u horizontu do 2050. godine. Neke od studija su globalnogkaraktera, dok su neke raene za europsku regiju. Izraeni su scenariji poras-

ta potronje energije i mogue opcije podmirivanja te potronje. U analizama je primjereni naglasak stavljen na problem klimatskih promjena, problemranjivosti energetskog sustava i pitanje budunosti nuklearne energije.

The article gives a survey of studies made over the period 2005 to 2007 in co-ordination with and under the sponsorship of WEC. The studies deal with the

energy sector with a long-term horizon up to 2050. Some studies are global incharacter, others are intended for the European region. Scenarios of energy

consumption growth have been prepared, including possible options for meet-ing energy demands. Appropriate emphasis is laid on the problems concern-ing climate change and vulnerability of energy systems, as well as the future

of nuclear energyKljune rijei: klimatske promjene, konvencionalni izvori energije, nuklearna

energija, obnovljivi izvori energije, potronja energije, scenariji razvoja, triteenergije.

Keywords: climate change, conventional energy, development scenarios, en-ergy consumption, energy market, nuclear energy, renewable energy

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1 UVOD

Svjetski energetski savjet (World Energy Coun-cil WEC) okuplja stotinjak zemalja lanica isamim time velik broj energetskih strunjaka.Oni dolaze iz industrije, vlada, akademskih zajed-nica, sindikata, nevladinih udruga i imaju irokoiskustvo u mnogim podrujima energetike [1].Ove je godine odran XX. svjetski energetskikongres u Rimu pod naslovom Energetskabudunost u meuzavisnom svijetu. Na njemu supredstavljene najvanije studije WEC-a nastale uposljednje tri godine, odnosno izmeu dva sv- jetska kongresa [2]. To su Energetski scenariji do2050. godine, Energija i promjena klime, te Pre-gled energetskih izvora u 21. stoljeu. Na ovimstudijama globalnog znaenja radilo je nekolikostotina strunjaka iz cijelog svijeta. Inzistiranjena provjerenim injenicama dio je WEC-ove mis-ije, a posljednjih desetak godina WEC promovirasve mogue energetske opcije naglaavajui tzv.3A odrivi energetski razvitak. Radi se o sloganu:dostupnost, raspoloivost, prihvatljivost (engl. accessibility, availability, acceptability ), a ener-getski razvitak kao i WEC-ove aktivnosti planirajuse regionalno (Afrika, Latinska Amerika i Karibi,Azija, Europa i Sjeverna Amerika). Tako su zaEuropu izraene dvije studije. Jedna se odnosina ranjivost europskog energetskog sustava, adruga na ulogu nuklearne energije u Europi.

Pokazatelj 3A je pokazatelj stvarne energetskesituacije kako na globalnoj tako i na regional-noj razini. Cijene energije rastu, to pomaepoboljanju e kasnosti i privlai investicije,no istodobno vie cijene najjae pogaajunajsiromanije zemlje i narode. Stoga dostup-nost energije ostaje i dalje vaan prioritet na svjetskoj razini.

to se tie raspoloivosti, ona je speci na zapojedini energetski izvor. Smatra se da su rezerveurana dostatne za relativno dugi niz godina radanuklearnih elektrana, to e ovisiti i o razvojunovih nuklearnih tehnologija. Zalihe prirodnogplina su znaajne (Rusija, Iran, Katar i mnogedruge zemlje), no transport od proizvoaa dopotroaa bit e sve dulji, dakle i skuplji. Izmeusvih energenata ugljena ima najvie, mjereno ugodinama potronje, no pripadne CO2 emisijemorat e se uskladititi. Proizvodnja nafte sve sevie koncentrira u nekoliko regija, a uloga biogo-riva postaje sve znaajnija. to se tie hidroen-ergetskog potencijala, smatra se da je oko 70 %,na svjetskoj razini, jo neiskoriteno, to ostav-lja znaajnu mogunost za rast, kao uostalom ienergija vjetra, biomase, Sunca, te geotermalnaenergija.

1 INTRODUCTION

The World Energy Council (WEC) brings togetheras many as one hundred or so member countriesand thereby a large number of energy experts.They come from industry, governments, academiccommunities, trade unions, NGOs, and are broad-ly experienced in many areas of energy [1].This year at XX World Energy Congress, Rome, en-titled Energy Future in an interdependent world,the most important WEC studies over the pastthree years between two world congresses [2]have been presented. These are: Energy scenariosto 2050, Energy and climate change, and Surveyof energy resources in the 21st century. In theseon global issues several hundred experts fromaround the world have been engaged. Insistenceon veri ed facts is a part of this WEC mission.Over the past ten years WEC has been promot-ing all kinds of energy options with focus on theso-called 3A sustainable energy development, viz.Accessibility, Availability and Acceptability, whileenergy development itself, just as WEC activities,are planned regionally (Africa, Latin America andthe Caribbean, Asia, Europe and North America).Two studies have been prepared for Europe. Oneis about the vulnerability of the European energysystem, the other about the role of nuclear energyin Europe.

3A is the indicator of the real energy situation atboth global and regional level. Energy prices aregrowing, which helps to improve ef ciency andattracts investments, but, at the same time, thepoorest countries are worst hit by higher prices.Accessibility remains thus an important globalpriority.

When it comes to availability, it is resource-spe-ci c. Uranium reserves are believed to suf ce forthe operation of nuclear power plants for relativelymany years, which will also depend on the devel-opment of new nuclear technologies. Natural gasreserves are signi cant (Russia, Iran, Qatar andmany other countries), but transportation fromproducers to consumers will be longer and longerand thereby increasingly expensive. Among all en-ergy sources coal is the most abundant fossil fuel,measured in years of consumption, but its CO2 emissions will have to be stored. Oil production ismore and more concentrated in several regions,and the role of biofuels is becoming increasinglyimportant. Regarding the water energy potential,about 70 per cent of it at global level is believed tobe unexploited, which leaves a signi cant growthopportunity, as it also does for wind, biomass, so-lar, and geothermal energy.

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Unutar WEC-a se vjeruje da je mogue zadovoljitisvjetske energetske potrebe i sauvati okoli tenain ivota. To je mogue uiniti samo ako bu-demo otvoreni za sve energetske opcije i ako se iz-bor energenta napravi na osnovi realnih trokova.

Razumna energetska politika je osnova ubrzanja

rasta i napretka. Pri tome koritenje istih teh-nologija postaje sve znaajnije, te WEC eli po-taknuti rad na sljedeim temama, koje su bitne zanau energetsku budunost:

e kasnost proizvodnje energije i energetskae kasnost krajnjih korisnika,

mogunosti promjena u urbanom transportu, odrive tehnologije koritenja fosilnih goriva, uloga prirodnog plina u proizvodnji elektrine

energije, uloga nuklearne energije, mogui udio obnovljivih izvora energije

(umreenih i neumreenih).No, ono to svakako treba uiniti to prije i tobre je iskoristiti potencijal energetske e kasnosti.Mogue su utede energije od proizvodnje i pri- jenosa energije, pa do krajnjih potroaa u zgra-dama, industriji i transportu.

2SCENARIJI ENERGETSKOGRAZVITKA DO 2050.Rezultati ove studije pokazuju da na svijetu imadovoljno energije za sljedeih etrdesetak godina( do 2050. godine), a kljuno pitanje je kako tu en-ergije dopremiti od mjesta proizvodnje do mjestapotronje [3]. Za pokrivanje potreba kuanstava do2050. godine, potronja energije bit e oko dva putavea u odnosu na 2005. godinu. Fosilna goriva e idalje pokrivati najvei dio primarne energije. Prist-up energiji znaajno e se poboljati, a klimatskepromjene e se ublaiti. Najvaniji pokreta ovihpromjena bit e porast cijena energije.

Vlade moraju de nirati pravila trgovanja energijom i de nirati stabilnu cijenu za ugljik te poticatisuradnju i integraciju meu regijama, a isto takoi izmeu javnog i privatnog sektora. Upravo krozintenzivniju suradnju, vee investicije i jasna pravi-la trgovanja energijom zajedno moe se izgraditiodriva energetska budunost.

U ovoj studiji prihvaen je novi pristup scenarijima,koji nije samo statistiki, nego kree od regional-nog pogleda prema energetskoj politici, koja trebaosigurati odrivi energetski razvitak.

Within WEC it is widely believed that it is pos-sible to satisfy global energy needs and, at thesame time, preserve the environment and ourway of life. It will be possible if we are open toall energy options and if the choice for energysources is made on the basis of real costs.

Reasonable energy policy is a basis for intensi-ed growth and progress. In this regard, the useof clean technologies is gaining in importance,so WEC wants to promote work on the followingtopics which are vital for our energy future:

energy production ef ciency and energyend-use ef ciency,

possible changes in urban transport, sustainable fossil fuel use technologies, the role of natural gas in electricity produc-

tion , the role of nuclear energy,

potential share of renewable energy re-sources (networked and not networked).

But what should certainly be done as soon aspossible is to exploit the potential of energy ef -ciency. Energy savings are possible from energyproduction and transmission to the end users inbuildings, industry and transport.

2 ENERGY DEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS TO 2050The results of this study show that there isenough energy around the world for the nextforty years (to 2050), and the key issue is how tobring this energy from the place of productionto the place of consumption [3]. For the needs ofhouseholds up to 2050 energy consumption willbe twice as high as in 2005. Fossil fuels will con-tinue to account for the bulk of primary energy.Access to energy will signi cantly improve andclimate changes will abate. The foremost driverof these changes will be rising energy prices.

Governments have to de ne the rules of tradein energy, ensure a stable carbon price and en-courage cooperation and integration betweenregions as well as between the private and pub-lic sectors. It is through intensi ed cooperation,greater investment and clear rules of energytrade that we can together build a sustainableenergy future.

In this study a new approach to scenarios is ad-opted, one which is not only statistical but whichalso moves from a regional perspective towardsan energy policy that should ensure sustainableenergy development.

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Od 2005. do 2007. godine odrano je dvade-setak radionica u razliitim regijama svijetana temu izrade ove studije. Oko 400 eksper-ata iz industrije, vlada, akademske zajednice,nevladinih i trgovakih udruga iz cijelog svijeta dali su svoje kvalitativno miljenje o tomekako politika moe odgovoriti izazovima ener-

getske budunosti. Ova miljenja provjerena sumatematikim modelom energetskog sektora.Sedam specijalistikih grupa pripremilo jepodatke od energetskih do klimatskih, nan-cijskih, cjenovnih itd.

2.1 etiri osnovna scenarijaKoristei etiri dobro poznate ivotinje WECscenariji de niraju etiri mogua pristupanaoj energetskoj budunosti [4]. Ta etiri sce-narija predstavljaju:

Lav, spretna i socijalno integrirana ivotinja,disciplinirana i organizirana, predstavlja jaku ulogu vlade, zajedno s uskom surad-njom i dobrom integracijom javnog i privat-nog sektora, tuzemno i meunarodno,

irafa, adaptivna i nezavisna ivotinja,koja vidi na daleko, opisuje trinovoene aktivnosti s minimalnim utjeca- jem vlade, ali visokim stupnjem suradnjei integracije javnog i privatnog, tuzemno imeunarodno,

Slon, socijalna ivotinja koja ivi unu-tar vlastite obitelji, predstavlja vladu jako

angairanu u energetskoj politici, s malosuradnje ili integracije javnog i privatnog, Leopard, usamljeno bie, izolirano, opisuje

slabo angairanje vlade u kreiranju ener-getske politike i slabu povezanost javnog iprivatnog sektora.

Vano je naglasiti da regije svijeta, zbograzliitog ekonomskog i socijalnog razvitka,nemaju iste prioritete energetske politike. Af-rika, kao najnerazvijenija regija eli poveatidostupnost energije, dok Europa brine o prih-vatljivosti energetskih opcija. Za manje razvijene regije kao to su Azija, Afrika i LatinskaAmerika, WEC regionalne studije pokazuju davea suradnja i integracija nude najbolji putprema ostvarenju sva 3A. Meunarodni ugov-ori i zakoni nee biti dovoljni, a partnerstvo srazvijenim zemljama radi transfera tehnologijei znanja nuno je radi de niranja regionalnihenergetskih prioriteta.

2.1.1 LavScenarij Lav s visokim stupnjem utjecaja vladei isto tako visokim stupnjem suradnje i inte-gracije, stvara najbolju strategiju za realizaciju3A u svim regijama svijeta.

From 2005 to 2007 about twenty workshops havebeen held in different regions of the world on thetopic of the present study. About 400 experts fromindustries, governments, academic communities,NGOs and trading associations from all over theworld have given their qualitative views about howpolitics can respond to the challenges of the energy

future. These opinions have been veri ed by themathematical model for the energy sector. Sevenspecialised groups have prepared data rangingfrom energy to climate, nances, prices, etc.

2.1 Four basic scenariosUsing the metaphors of four well-known animals,the WEC Scenarios de ne four possible approachesto our energy future [4]. These four approaches arerepresented by:

The Lion, a skilled, social animal, disciplined

and organised, represents strong governmentengagement together with close cooperationand integration of the public and private sec-tors, domestically and internationally,

The Giraffe, a highly adaptable and independentcreature that sees at great distances, describesmarket-driven actions made with minimal gov-ernment involvement but a high degree of coop-eration and integration of the public and privatedomains,

The Elephant, a social animal that lives withinits own family, characterises government deeplyengaged in energy policymaking, but with coop-

eration or integration of the public and private, The Leopard, a solitary and isolated creature,who represents energy responses with littlegovernment involvement and little cooperationand integration of the public and private sector.

It is important to note that the regions of the world,due to different patterns of economic and socialdevelopment, do not have the same energy policypriorities. Africa, as the least developed region,is concerned with increasing access to energy,whereas Europe places more emphasis on en-ergy acceptability in its policymaking. For the lessdeveloped regions, such as Asia, Africa and LatinAmerica, WEC regional studies show that greatercooperation and integration offers the best routeto achieving WECs 3 As. Reliance on internationalagreements and laws will not be enough, whereaspartnership with developed countries to transfertechnology and expertise will be critical to ful llingthe right balance of these energy priorities.

2.1.1 LionThe lion scenario, with high levels of governmentinvolvement and high levels of cooperation andintegration, proved broadly the best strategy forachieving WECs 3 As in all regions of the world.

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Ovaj scenarij osigurava nastavak jakog global-nog gospodarstva smanjujui energetsku inten-zivnost, vodei rauna o klimatskim promjenamai poboljavajui pristup modernim energetskimizvorima i uslugama.

Afrika

Bri ekonomski rast vodi do veeg brutodomaeg proizvoda i kako se ivotni standardpoboljava porast broja stanovnika se uspo-rava poslije 2020. godine. Poveava se nan-ciranje i tehnoloki transfer u energetski sektor,a dostupnost energije je znaajno poboljana.Institucionalno nanciranje, ali i privatni sektorimaju sve znaajniju ulogu u razvitku infrastru-kture. Rezultat je raznolika energetska struktu-ra, ukljuujui biomasu za kuanstva, biogorivoza promet i prirodni plin za kuanstva i gospo-dar-stvo.

AzijaVeliki projekti elektroenergetskih mrea znaajnopoveavaju broj potroaa, a regionalna surad-nja vodi do integracije i poveanja sigurnostiopskrbe. Razvijene zemlje ulau u regionalnuenergetsku infrastrukturu. Najnovija tehnologijase primjenjuje zahvaljujui boljoj meunarodnojsuradnji, no robusni ekonomski rast usporavaprijelaz na iste tehnologije.

Latinska Amerika i KaribiPopulacijski rast poinje se smanjivati iza 2020.godine kako raste ivotni standard. Meunarodno

nanciranje, upravljanje i tehnologija doprino-se razvitku infrastrukturnih projekata, kojiomoguavaju pristup energiji. Zbog nacionalnogi meunarodnog pritiska lokalni politiari stavl- jaju zatitu okolia na visoko mjesto prioriteta.

EuropaOtvaranje energetskog trita meunarodnimsudionicima poveava konkurenciju i smanjuje cijene energije. Zemlje potroai potpisujudugorone ugovore sa zemljama izvoznicamaprirodnog plina, a to dovodi do znaajnogsmanjenja potronje ugljena.

Sjeverna AmerikaSjeverna Amerika zalae se za energetski razvi-tak ostalih regija, a u vlastitoj regiji posveuje sveveu panju zatiti okolia.

2.1.2 irafaU scenariju kada vlade samo minimalno utjeuna energetski sektor, uz jaku suradnju i inte-graciju, dolazi do oslobaanja globalnih trita.Slobodna trgovina roba i usluga cvate, a ener-getski izvori postaju sve raznolikiji. Stanovnitvose stabilizira i opada u nekim regijama.

This approach ensures a continuation of a strongglobal economy while tackling climate change,and improving access to modern energy sourcesand services.

AfricaFaster economic growth leads to higher per capita

GDP, and as living standards improve, populationgrowth rates decline after 2020. More nancingand technology transfers in the energy sector areencouraged. Access to modern energy is signi -cantly increased. Institutional nancing and theprivate sector play a greater role in developingenergy infrastructure. A more diverse energy mixis the result, with more biomass for households,more biofuels for transport, and more natural gasfor domestic and commercial use.

AsiaLarge electricity supply projects dramatically in-

crease the number of consumers, while regionalcooperation leads to integration, which increasesreliability of the supply system. Developed coun-tries invest in regional energy infrastructure. Thelatest technology is adopted, thanks to betterinternational cooperation, although the shift toclean energy is held in check to some extent byrobust economic growth.

Latin America and the CaribbeanPopulation growth recedes starting in 2020 as liv-ing standards rise. International nancing, man-agement and technology contribute to infrastruc-

ture projects, which increases access to energy.Under national and international pressure, localpolicymakers place protection of the environmenthigh on their agenda.

EuropeGreater opening of energy markets to interna-tional players leads to more competition andlower energy prices. Consumer countries strikelong-term supply agreements on natural gas withproducer countries, which leads to signi cant re-duction in coal use.

North AmericaNorth America is committed to energy develop-ment of other regions and in its own region paysgreater ad greater attention to environmental pro-tection.

2.1.2 GiraffeWith governments only minimally involved in en-ergy sector and with strong cooperation and in-tegration, efforts are directed at freeing up globalmarkets. There is freer movement of goods andservices and energy sources are becoming morediverse. Population stabilises and declines insome regions.

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AfrikaZahvaljujui privatnom sektoru, inovacijesu brojne, a trokovi energije manji. EmisijeCO2 ostaju visoke, a raste i potronja ugljenai prirodnog plina. Obnovljivi izvori energijekasne, jer nema potpore za njih.

AzijaUporaba fosilnih goriva u Aziji raste voenasnanim ekonomskim porastom, integracijomregionalnih energetskih trita, trgovinom, in-vesticijama i razvojem tehnologije.

EuropaVea suradnja rezultira eljom za rjeavanjemklimatskih promjena, ali uinci su ogranienizbog nedostatka angamana vlada. Europaostaje zadovoljna energetskim sustavomkakvog ima.

Latinska Amerika i KaribiVlade ne potiu investiranje u energetsku in-frastrukturu, to usporava ekonomski rast.Energetska intenzivnost se smanjuje sazakanjenjem zbog dugog transfera tehnologija, a potronja energije se stabilizira. Investicijeprivatnog sektora u energetiku rastu, ali nenuno u skladu s tritem.

Sjeverna AmerikaMeunarodni i regionalni forumi pritiu sjever-nu Ameriku da posveti veu panju ekolokimuincima energetskog sektora.

2.1.3 SlonU scenariju gdje vlade imaju jaku ulogu u ener-getskom planiranju i gdje je integracija privat-nog sektora jako loa, vlade postavljaju ener-getsku sigurnost kao najvii prioritet i dolazido diversi kacije energenata i opskrbljivaa,te dolazi do breg ekonomskog rasta nego uleopard scenariju, ali ne tako brzog kao u lav iliirafa scenariju. Zbog smanjene meunarodnesuradnje smanjenje emisija ostaje ogranieno.

AfrikaVlade osiguravaju pristup energiji i domaaproizvodnja se poboljava, iako je ogranienazbog loeg transfera tehnologije i loemeunarodne suradnje. Smanjenje emisijaima neznatan utjecaj.

AzijaMnoge vlade ele smanjiti koritenje fosilnihgoriva i izgraditi velike elektrane naroito uKini i Indiji. Emisije rastu, a tek krajem razdo-blja planiranja poinju padati zbog e kasnijihtehnologija. Vlade promoviraju energetsku sig-urnost, ista goriva i obnovljive izvore energijeu ruralnim sredinama.

AfricaDue to strong involvement of the private sector, in-novation is enhanced and energy costs reduced. CO2emissions stay high, coal and natural gas use rises.Without government incentives, renewables are ad-opted late, because there is no support for them.

AsiaFossil fuel use rises in Asia, buoyed by strong eco-nomic growth, also due to integration of regionalenergy markets, increased energy trade, invest-ment and technology cooperation.

EuropeGreater cooperation results in more efforts to dealwith the effects of climate change, but progress islimited by the lack of strong government involve-ment. Europe remains satis ed with its energy sys-tem as it is.

Latin America and the CaribbeanGovernments do not encourage investment in ener-gy infrastructure, which damps economic growth.Energy intensity eases later on, due to a long tim-escale for technology transfers to take effect, thusstabilizing energy demand. Private sector invest-ments in energy rise, but not necessarily alignedwith market needs.

North AmericaInternational and regional actors pressure NorthAmerica to devote more attention to dealing withthe environmental effects of energy sector.

2.1.3 ElephantIn a scenario of strong government involvementin energy planning but minimal integration by theprivate sector, governments make energy securitya top priority by diversifying supplies and suppli-ers, leading to faster economic growth than underthe leopard scenario, but not as fast as with lion orgiraffe. Lack of international cooperation meansemissions reductions remain limited.

AfricaGovernments increase access to energy and do-mestic energy production improves, although pro-duction capacity is constrained by a lack of tech-nology transfer and less effective international aidprogrammes. Low carbon policies are a low priority.

AsiaMany governments commit to reducing fossil fuelsand building large power plants, especially in Chinaand India. Emissions rise until late in the periodto 2050 but then start to decline because of moreef cient technology. Governments place high onthe agenda long-term energy security, promotingcleaner fuels, and renewable energy in rural areas.

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EuropaVlade podravaju velike energetske kompanijei stvaraju velike bilateralne ugovore u regiji.Ali bez vee meunarodne suradnje vlade nemogu osigurati dugoronu i sigurnu opskrbu.

Latinska Amerika i Karibi

Vlade diversi ciraju energetsku opskrbu:poveanjem broja vjetroelektrana, koritenjemsolarnog grijanja, biogoriva i prirodnog plina, tekasnije ugljena i nuklearne energije. Vrlo malose ulae u razvoj tehnologija, a razvijene zem-lje ne ulau u tzv. mehanizam istog razvitka,koji pomae zemljama u razvoju da smanjeemisije.

Sjeverna AmerikaPrivatni sektor ne ulae u razvitak energetskeinfrastrukture. Energetski sustav se ne razvijai energetska sigurnost je ugroena. Bez surad-

nje, interes za smanjenje emisija gubi zamahsredinom razdoblja planiranja.

2.1.4 LeopardU scenariju s malo utjecaja vlade i bez region-alne suradnje, zemlje su okrenute sigurnostiopskrbe.Vlade usvajaju energetske takse i pot-icaje. Nesigurnost vodi do usporenog gospo-darskog rasta i premalo investicija u energetskisektor. Energetska intenzivnost se pogoravau zemljama u razvoju, a u ostalim zemljamaopada sporo. Potronja energije raste.

AfrikaTehnoloki transfer, strana ulaganja i pristupistoj energiji su ogranieni zbog neuplitanjavlade i loe suradnje. Pristup energiji je otean,potranja raste, a siromatvo se pogorava.

AzijaElektroenergetska mrea se sporo razvija aekonomski razvitak pomae regiji da zadovoljirastuu potranju. Zbog izostanka potporevlade niti nuklearna energija ni obnovljivi izvorienergije nisu razvijeni dovoljno. Energetska sig-urnost je prioritet, a malo se panje posveujeklimatskim promjenama.

EuropaEnergetska sigurnost je ugroena, jer Rusijaima vlastite prioritete, a nordijsko trite se izo-lira. Nacionalni ampioni se razvijaju i blokirajupristup tritu kompanijama koje nisu iz EU.

Latinska Amerika i KaribiOvaj scenarij je lo za ekonomiju, potroae iokoli, on vodi prema organiziranju kartela,visokih cijena energije, slabog ekonomskograsta i nebrige za okoli.

EuropeGovernments support large energy companies andcreate large bilateral agreements in the region. Butwithout greater international cooperation, govern-ments are unable to ensure long-term and reliableenergy supply.

Latin America and the CaribbeanGovernments diversify energy supplies by addingmore wind power, solar heating, biofuels and naturalgas, and later on generating more power from coaland nuclear fuel. Very little is invested in developingtechnologies and industrialised countries do not in-vest in the Clean Development Mechanism designedto help developing countries reduce emissions.

North AmericaPrivate sector does not invest in developing energyinfrastructure. The energy system does not develop.The energy system goes into decline and reliability

suffers. Without cooperation, low carbon initiativeslose momentum in the middle of the planning pe-riod.

2.1.4 LeopardIn a scenario of light-handed government and littleregional cooperation, countries are preoccupiedwith their own security of energy supply. Govern-ments adopt energy taxes and subsidies. Uncertain-ty leads to slower economic growth and poor invest-ment in the energy sector. Energy intensity worsensin the developing world, and declines less rapidly

elsewhere. Energy demand continues to rise.AfricaTechnology transfer, foreign investment, and ac-cess to clean energy are limited due to low govern-ment involvement and poor cooperation. Improvingaccess to reliable energy remains dif cult, demandincreases and poverty worsens.

AsiaThe electricity grid is expanding at a slow pace, buteconomic growth helps the region to meet risingenergy demand. Lacking strong government com-mitment, neither nuclear power nor renewable en-ergy are developed adequately. Energy security is ahigh priority and little attention is paid to climatechange.

EuropeSecurity of supply is hampered, as Russia pursuesits own agenda and Nordic markets become moreinsular. National champions develop, blocking ac-cess to EU markets for non-EU companies.

Latin America and the CaribbeanThis scenario is bad for the economy, energy con-sumers and the environment, leading to the forma-tion of cartels, and neglect for the environment.

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Sjeverna AmerikaBez dobrog odravanja i razvitka energetske in-frastrukture, energetska opskrba SjeverneAmerike postaje manje pouzdana. Tomu do-prinosi i loa suradnja. iste energetske opcijerazvijaju se polako i nisu prioritet za politiare.

2.2 Dinamika globalnih energetskih tritaNaftaJai utjecaj vlada pomoi e smanjenju nape-tosti na tritu nafte, a to je povezano s jaomsuradnjom i integracijom privatnog sektora. Usluaju jaanja privatnog sektora bez znaajnogutjecaja vlada, moe doi do kriznih stanja natritu jer vei ekonomski rast moe dovesti dopoveanje potranje i viih cijena, a ne do veeraspoloivosti energenta.U sluaju podbaaja u proizvodnji nafte na Sred-njem istoku, zbog tehnikih problema ili pak

loeg planiranja razvoja naftnih polja, moe doido napetosti na energetskim tritima cijelogsvijeta.

PlinProblemi na tritu plina postat e sve tei uveini regija, naroito poetkom 2020. godine pado kraja razdoblja 2050. godine, jer e potranjarasti, s obzirom da je plin sve vaniji u smanjenjuemisija staklenikih plinova. Rusija postaje gos-podarstvo bazirano na plinu, a to moe dovestido napetosti na europskom i azijskom tritu.Krizna stanja na tritu plina u sjevernoj i junoj

Americi rastu od 2020. godine, a zatim opadajuod 2035. godine, jer poveana eksploatacijaplina poboljava opskrbu.

UgljenOpskrba ugljenom je zadovoljavajua za vei diorazdoblja planiranja, ali kada je potronja velika,napetosti rastu. Kasnije se kriza nastavlja zbograzvoja novih tehnologija (ugljen se pretvara uprometna goriva). Ako izoliranje i spremanjeCO2 postane prihvatljivo, potranja za ugljenome jo rasti, pa e rasti i problemi na tritu.

Nuklearna energijaProblemi e se gomilati i na nuklearnom tritu,naroito u Aziji i Africi, jer e potranja rasti. Re-alizacija e moda biti ograniena zbog sporograzvoja naprednih standardizacija na razini vladai zabrinutosti meunarodne zajednice oko odla-ganja nuklearnog otpada i proizvodnje oruja.Snana suradnja potrebna je izmeu vlada i in-dustrije da bi se nuklearna energetika osnaila uzemljama u razvoju.

Obnovljivi izvori energijeEnergija iz obnovljivih izvora energije imat evaan utjecaj na trita tijekom cijelog razdobljaali nee biti dominantna.

North AmericaWithout good maintenance and development ofenergy infrastructure, North Americas energysupply becomes less reliable. This is aggravatedby low cooperation. Clean energy develops slowlyand is not a priority for policymakers.

2.2 Dynamics of global energy marketsOilGreater government engagement will help easetension in oil markets, coupled with greater pri-vate sector cooperation and integration. Thestrengthening of private sector without greatergovernment commitment may lead to crises onoil markets, as higher economic growth wouldlead to increased demand for energy and higherenergy prices. A large drop in oil production in theMiddle East due to technical constraints or lack ofgood planning on oil eld development would also

raise tensions in energy markets world-wide.GasTensions in the gas market will get worse in mostregions, especially early 2020 through to the endof the planning cycle, due to higher demand, asgas becomes an important resource to help re-duce global greenhouse gas emissions. Russiabecomes a gas-based economy, possibly raisingtensions in European and Asian markets. Gasmarket tension rises in the Americas from 2020,but eases from 2035 as increased gas explorationimproves supply.

CoalCoal supplies are adequate for a greater part ofthe planning period, but when demand is high,tensions mount. Later on, tensions mount ascoal-to-liquid technology increases demand. Ifthe capture and storage of carbon becomes feasi-ble, demand will rise for coal and supply-demandtensions will result.

Nuclear energyTensions will grow in nuclear markets, especiallyin Asia and Africa, because demand will rise. Sup-plies may be limited by slow government actionon advanced standardised designs and by theconcerns on the part of the international commu-nity in dealing with waste disposition and weap-ons proliferation. Strong cooperation betweeninternational government and industry players isessential for developing a nuclear power sector inthe developing world.

RenewablesEnergy from renewable sources will have an im-portant impact on markets during the time period,but will not dominate any market.

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Nekonvencionalna energijaKoritenje nekonvencionalne energije pada uAziji, Latinskoj Americi i Africi. Prvo pada u Azijigdje je napredak ve u tijeku, a kasnije u Africizbog izostanka aktivnog pristupa vlada.

2.3 Odriva energetska budunostUdvostruenje opskrbe energijom do 2050. go-dine mogue je iim i e kasnijim tehnologi- jama. Fosilna goriva ostaju i dalje dominantna, aliproizvodnja postaje e kasnija, kao i tehnologijaodlaganja (utiskivanje u podmorje ili podzemlje)staklenikih plinova.

Ako vlade i privatni sektor budu suraivali, ener-getska intenzivnost e padati, a energetski miks(engl. mix) postat e diverzi ciraniji, poveate se udio hidroelektrana, nuklearne energije,biogoriva, biomase i ostalih obnovljivih izvora

energije. Stvaranje sporazuma oko de niranja cijeneugljika je kritino, jer bez jake meunarodnesuradnje i angamana vlada problem emisijestaklenikih plinova nee se moi rijeiti.

U WEC-u se vjeruje da je mogue zadovoljitibuduu potronju i stvoriti svijet niskog ugljika.Zadatak studije je bio poboljanje tri glavna ciljaWEC-a:

dostupnost,

raspoloivost i prihvatljivost energije za sve.

Ovi ciljevi postavljeni su kao mjera napretka on-ima koji donose odluke. Ti ciljevi su realistini, auz politiku volju vlada i industrije da surauju naizradi potrebne energetske politike i regulative teostvare nune investicije, ti ciljevi su i ostvarivi.

2.3.1 DostupnostDanas na svijetu ima dvije milijarde ljudi bezpristupa komercijalnoj energiji i oko jedne milijarde ljudi, koji taj pristup imaju samo sporadino.Stoga su ciljevi:

smanjiti na pola broj ljudi bez pristupa en-ergiji do 2035. godine. WEC je de nirao mini-mum energetskog standarda kao godinjupotronju elektrine energije od 500 kWh poosobi,

ponovno smanjiti na pola broj ljudi bezpristupa energiji do 2050. godine, dakle smilijarde na pola milijarde ljudi.

Non-conventional energyThe use of non-conventional energy decreases inAsia, Latin America and Africa rst in Asia whereprogress is already underway and later in Africabecause of a lack of effective government engage-ment.

2.3 Sustainable energy futureA doubling of supplies can be achieved by 2050with cleaner and more ef cient technologies.Fossil fuels remain dominant, but production isbecoming more ef cient along with more ef cientmanagement of greenhouse gas emissions (land-

lling).

If there is government commitment and privatesector collaboration, energy intensity will con-tinue to decrease and the energy mix will becomemore diverse, the share will rise of hydroelectric-

ity, nuclear power, biofuels, biomass and otherrenewables.

Creating an agreement on setting the carbon priceis critical, since without strong international coop-eration and government involvement it will not bepossible to solve the problem of greenhouse gasemissions.

WEC believes that the world can meet its require-ments and create a low carbon world.The task of the study group was to improve thethree principal targets:

accessibility, availability and acceptability for all.

These targets have been set as benchmarks forpolicymakers to measure progress. These targetsare realistic, and provided the political will ex-ists for government and industry to work closelytogether in drafting the necessary policies andregulations, and make the investments required,they can be achieved.

2.3.1 Accessibility

Given that about two billion people have no accessto commercial energy and another one billionhave only sporadic access, the targets are to:

reduce by half the number of people withoutaccess to energy by 2035. WEC de nes theminimum of energy standard as the annualelectricity equivalent of 500 kWh per person,

halve again the number of people without ac-cess to energy by 2050 from one billion to vehundred million.

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2.3.2 RaspoloivostS obzirom da su najvei ispadi u opskrbi bili zbognedovoljnog investiranja u energetsku infrastruk-turu ili zbog problema na tritu i politikih nesla-ganja, u WEC-u se vjeruje da je potrebno uinitisljedee:

razviti energetske sustave koji e biti 99 %pouzdani u Europi, Sjevernoj Americi i dijelo-vima Azije do 2035. godine,

razviti energetske sustave koji e biti 99 %pouzdani u veem dijelu Azije, Afrike i Latin-ske Amerike do 2050. godine.

2.3.2 PrihvatljivostS obzirom da e zabrinutost za okoli imati ve-liki znaaj na budunost energetike treba uinitisljedee:

znaajno smanjiti udio emisija koje dolaze izenergetskog sektora do 2020. godine, stabilizirati emisije iz energetskog sektora do

2035. godine, smanjiti emisije na sadanju razinu ili ispod

nje do 2050. godine, odvojiti emisije od ekonomskog rasta do 2050.

godine.

2.4 PreporukeBez obzira na scenarij WEC je de nirao sedamvanih podruja, koja treba poticati kako bi se

poveale investicije u istu energetsku infrastrukt-uru i omoguio energetski napredak svim regijama.Svaka regija e morati uzeti u obzir i lokalne uvjetekada bude de nirala svoju energetsku politiku.

Ta podruja su:

promocija energetske e kasnosti koristeisve mogue metode u cijelom energetskomlancu od eksploatacije do nalne potronje,ukljuujui kampanje za dizanje svijestipotroaa, nancijske inicijative , standarde iregulativu,

podizanje svijesti potroaa o tome kako sektortransporta moe igrati vanu ulogu u e kasni- jem koritenju energije, kroz promjene u urba-nom planiranju, mjere energetske e kasnostii razvoj tehnologije,

de niranje svjetske cijene ugljika dovoljnovisoke da motivira promjenu ponaanja i do-voljno niske da ne zaustavi ekonomski rast,

bolja integracija energetskih trita regionalnoi globalno za velike ekonomije u energetskomsektoru. Da bi se to postiglo nova pravila zameunarodnu trgovinu energijom trebajurijeiti kako pomiriti globalnu trgovinu i inves-ticije s nastajanjem nacionalnih energetskihampiona i kako smanjiti napetosti izmeu

2.3.2 AvailabilityGiven that most of the disruptions in deliveringenergy have been related to under-investment inenergy transport infrastructure, or due to mar-ket failures or political disagreements, WEC be-lieves it is necessary to achieve the following:

develop energy systems which are 99 % reli-able in Europe, North America, and parts ofAsia by 2035,

develop energy systems, which are 99 % reli-able in most of Asia, Africa and Latin Ameri-ca by 2050.

2.3.2 AcceptabilityGiven that environmental concerns will have amajor in uence on the future shape of the globalenergy industry, it is necessary to do the follow-ing:

slow the rate of energy-related emissionsgrowth signi cantly by 2020,

stabilise CO2 emissions from energy use by2035,

reduce emissions to current levels or belowby 2050.

2.4 RecommendationsRegardless of the scenario in place, WEC hasde ned seven important areas that need to beaddressed to achieve energy development in all

regions to raise investment in clean energy in-frastructure. Each region will have its own localconditions to take into consideration when draw-ing up energy policies. These areas are as follows:

promoting energy ef ciency using all avail-able methods along the entire energy chain,from exploration to nal energy use, includ-ing consumer awareness campaigns, nan-cial incentives, standards and regulations,

raising public awareness of how the trans-port sector can play an important role inmore ef cient energy use, through changesin urban planning, energy ef ciency mea-sures, and technology development,

setting a global price for carbon highenough to motivate behaviour changes, andprices low enough not to hamper economicgrowth,

closer integration of energy markets region-ally and globally for greater economies ofscale in energy sector. To achieve this a newset of international trade rules for energywill address concerns over how to reconcileglobal energy trading and investment withthe build-up of national energy champions,

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zemalja proizvoaa i zemalja potroaa en-ergije,

stvaranje novog meunarodnog okvira zatransfer tehnologije iz razvijenih zemalja uzemlje u razvoju, koji potuje intelektualnovlasnitvo i pomae zemljama razviti teh-nologije primjerene vlastitim potrebama kao

i razviti vlastito umijee, pokretanje dijaloga o sigurnosti opskrbe, jersu zemlje i regije uvoznice energije zabri-nute za svoju budunost. Isto tako zemljeizvoznice zabrinute su za plasman energije.To bi mogli rijeiti dugoroni meunarodnimodeli suradnje,

porezna politika, legalni i komercijali okvirvaan je za ogranienje investicijskog rizika istvaranje realnih oekivanja to se tie, kakorizika, tako i povrata investicije.

3 ENERGIJA I PROMJENAKLIMEIPCC (Meuvladin panel o klimatskim promjena-ma) je nedavno potvrdio da je globalno zatopljen- je neosporno dokazano. Naalost, postojei na-pori su nedovoljni veina zemalja s ciljevima uokviru Kyoto protokola nije na putu da ih ostvari,a mnoge zemlje i nemaju Kyoto ciljeve. Kao re-zultat, emisije staklenikih plinova i dalje rastui prema prognozama tako e biti i u sljedeimdesetljeima [5].

Problem nije nedostatak mjera, kojih postoji neko-liko tisua, u zemljama potpisnicama Kyoto pro-tokola i onima izvan njega, ve injenica da mjerenisu odgovarajue s obzirom na veliinu i znaajproblema. Kako dvije treine emisija staklenikihplinova dolazi iz energetskog sektora, hitno trebade nirati mjere za njihovo smanjenje. U ovoj studiji WEC-a detaljno su analiziranepostojee mjere i njihova uspjenost, ponovnokoristei 3A pristup.

Treba naglasiti da odrivi razvitak nije samo ve-zan na okoli, on treba takoer biti i ekonomski isocijalno prihvatljiv.

3.1 Emisija staklenikih plinovaKako bi mjere bile to uinkovitije treba ihusmjeriti prema pravim ciljevima u energetskomsektoru, dakle onim mjerama koje su znaajneza emisije, a nisu skupe.Odrivost nee biti ostvarena ako smanjenjeemisija znai usporavanje socijalnog razvitka,

naroito za dvije milijarde ljudi koji nemajunikakav pristup modernoj energiji.

and escalating tensions between producerand consumer countries,

creating a new international framework fortechnology transfer from developed to de-veloping countries that respects intellectualproperty, helps countries develop technolo-gies meeting their energy priorities, and de-

velops local skills, dialogue on security of supply and demand,because energy consuming countries andregions are concerned about their future.Likewise, energy supplying countries are con-cerned about assured demand. That could beresolved by long-term international models ofcooperation,

taxation, legal and commercial frameworksthat limit investment risk and fostering real-istic expectations for risk and return.

3 ENERGY AND CLIMATECHANGE

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)has recently con rmed that global warming hasbeen de nitely proved. Unfortunately, the existingefforts are inadequate most countries committedto Kyoto targets are not on the way to reach them,while many countries do not have Kyoto targets.As a result, greenhouse gas emissions continue torise and according to forecasts it will be very muchthe same in the coming decades [5].

The problem is not a lack of measures there areseveral thousand of them in the Kyoto signatoriesand non-signatories it is the fact that the mea-sures are not adequate in the face of the magni-tude and impact of the problem. Since two thirdsof the greenhouse gas emissions come from theenergy sector, de ning measures for their reduc-tion is a matter of urgency.

In this WEC study the existing measures and theirsuccess are analysed in detail by again using the

3A approach.It should be stressed that sustainable develop-ment is not just an environmental issue, it shouldalso be economically and socially acceptable.

3.1 Greenhouse gas emissionsFor the measures to be as ef cient as possible,they should be focused on the right goals in theenergy sector, they should be relevant to theemissions and not expensive.Sustainability will not be achieved, if reduced

emissions lead to a slowdown in social develop-ment, especially for two billion people who haveno access to modern energy service.

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Analiza u studiji pokazuje kako su razliiti tren-dovi emisija u raznim regijama i kako su razliitinjihovi pokretai. Jasno je da e svaka zemljamorati razviti vlastiti odgovor za promjenu klime,nema arobnog rjeenja, koje e biti odgovor nasve postojee probleme.Naravno, postoje i neke zajednike karakteris-

tike: emisija staklenikih plinova se poveavakako broj stanovnika raste i postaje bogatiji. No,intenzitet emisija znaajno se razlikuje u raznimgospodarstvima.

Velike zemlje poput USA i Kine imaju visok stu-panj emisija, no postoji cijeli niz gospodarstavana istoj razini s vrlo razliitim stupnjem emisija.Francuska i vedska imaju relativnu nisku razinuemisija u usporedbi s Njemakom i Australijomkao vrlo slinim zemljama. Slino, emisije Bra-zila su nie nego one June Afrike.

Analize pokazuju da te razlike nisu primarnozbog energetske intenzivnosti (potronja energijepo jedinici izlaza) niti ukupne potronje energije.Najvaniji faktor je ugljikov intenzitet energije(koliina proizvedenog CO2 po jedinici utroeneenergije). Zemlje s velikim hidro ili nuklearnimizvorima kao Brazil i Francuska, imaju nizak ug-ljikov intenzitet, za razliku od Kine i Australije,koje koriste velike koliine ugljena i imaju visokugljikov intenzitet.

Ugljikov intenzitet ovisi o energetskim izvorimapojedine zemlje, pri emu treba naglasiti dva

kljuna sektora: transport i proizvodnja elektrine energije.

Ustvari, proizvodnja elektrine energije je ot-prilike dva puta znaajnija od transporta. To jeujedno i naj eksibilniji sektor, mogu se ko-ristiti fosilna i ne-fosilna goriva, dok je trans-port preteno ovisan o nafti. Primjeri znaajnihsmanjenja emisija (iskljuujui rat ili ekonomskikolaps) pokazuju da su one bazirane na promje-nama u strukturi proizvodnje elektrine energije. Transportni sektor je dugorono kritian, jersu intervencije tee. Znaajno smanjenje emisijatrait e znaajne tehnoloke promjene ili pakpromjene u transportnim navikama.

3.2 Postojee mjere i njihova e kasnostNekoliko tisua mjera uvedeno je u razvijenimzemljama, ali i u zemljama u razvoju. Izbormjera se razlikuje, no obje grupe zemalja pred-nost daju energetskoj e kasnosti i obnovljivimizvorima energije. U razvijenim zemljama koristese vie ekonomski instrumenti, a u zemljama urazvoju direktne intervencije.

The study shows how different emission trendsare in different regions and how their driversmutually differ. It is clear that each country willhave to develop its own answer to climate change.There is no magic solution as an answer to all theexisting problems.There are, of course, some common character-

istics: greenhouse gas emissions increase as thepopulation increases and becomes richer. How-ever, emission intensity greatly differs in differenteconomies.

Big countries like USA and China have a high-de-gree emission, but there is a whole lot of econo-mies with the same degree of emissions. Franceand Sweden have relatively low emission levelscompared with Germany and Australia as verysimilar countries. Similarly, Brazils emissionsare lower than those of South Africa.

Analyses show that these differences are not pri-marily attributable to energy intensity (power con-sumption per unit of output) nor to overall energyconsumption. The most important factor is carbonintensity of energy (amount of CO2 produced perunit of used energy). Countries with major hydroor nuclear potentials like Brazil and France havea low carbon intensity, unlike China and Australiawhich are using great quantities of coal and, as aresult, have a high carbon intensity.

Carbon intensity depends on the energy sourcesof a country. In this regard, two key sectors must

be borne in mind: transport and production of electricity.

In fact, electricity production is twice as impor-tant. At the same time, this is the most exiblesector, where fossil and non-fossil fuels can beused, whereas transport largely depends on oil.Examples of major emission reductions (includ-ing war or economic collapse) show that they arebased on changes in the structure of electricityproduction. The transport sector is critical in thelong run, because interventions here are more dif-cult. Signi cant emission reductions will requiresigni cant technological changes or changes intransport behaviour.

3.2 Existing measures and their ef ciencyThousands of measures have been introducedin industrialised countries as well as developingcountries. The choice of measures differs, butboth groups of countries give priority to energy ef-

ciency and renewables. Industrialised countriesprefer economic instruments, developing coun-tries prefer direct government intervention.

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Sve mjere imaju svoje dobre i loe strane, aneprepoznavanje tih injenica esto je dovodilodo loih rezultata. Vjerojatno i zbog toga, vrlomalo vlada napravilo je analizu e kasnosti vlas-tite politike i mjera po svim kriterijima odrivograzvitka. Dakle, unato postojanju velikog brojamjera, rezultati su razoaravajui.

WEC studija pokuala je napraviti takvu analizu,koja je prevelika i prekompleksna za ovaj lanak,ali iz nje su proizale preporuke za vlade, kadabudu de nirale svoje politike i mjere u ovomvanom podruju.

3.3 Preporuke porez na energente je vaan ali nije savren

ponajvie radi problema s kompetitivnoui dostupnou, kao i dugorone sigurnostipotrebne za promociju investicija. Porezi su

naroito teka opcija za zemlje u razvoju,te stoga ne mogu biti okosnica zajednikogglobalnog rjeenja. Porezi su se smanjili tijekom prolog desetljea, a najvie se ubiruna motorna goriva, jer imaju vie utjecaja naprihod vlada nego na ponaanje potroaa,te je u stvari doprinos smanjenju emisijaogranien,

energetska e kasnost kod krajnjegpotroaa je vana jer ona potie napredaksva 3A cilja. Naalost, ne zna se kakopostojei programi tome doprinose, jernema valjane analize, a nema niti sluaja

znaajnog smanjenja emisija na ovaj nain.Energetska e kasnost ne moe dati eljenobrzo smanjenje emisija, dok god vlade nepostave programe s dobro fokusiranimciljevima i praenjem,

obnovljivi izvori sigurno pomau, ali postojivelik broj praktinih zamjerki kao to su: vi-soki trokovi, raspoloivost itd., a to ondapredstavlja problem naroito zemljama urazvoju. Obnovljivi izvori mogu dati doprinossmanjenju emisija, ali u praksi, osim u zem-ljama sa znaajnim hidro (ili geotermalnim)izvorima, nije vjerojatno da e omoguitidekarbonizaciju elektroenergetskog sekto-ra dovoljno brzo. Utjecaj nekih obnovljivih iz-vora energije na okoli , npr. biomase, je vrlokompleksan i treba ga oprezno prouiti.

trgovanje emisijama, teoretski je vrlorazraeno, ali prate ga praktini problemii za sada nema primjera koji bi govorili otome koliko je ova mjera prikladna. Doka-zana dugorona shema je potrebna da bitrgovanje emisijama dalo oekivani rezultat,a trenutano smo daleko od toga,

ukidanje subvencija na fosila goriva moebiti prvi korak u borbi s klimatskim promje-nama. Meutim, obino su subvencije post-

All these measures have their advantages anddisadvantages. Disregard for these facts has oftenled to undesired results. That may be the reasonwhy very few governments have made an ef ciencyanalysis of their own policies and measures by ap-plying all relevant sustainable development crite-ria. Indeed, in spite of a great number of measures,

the results are disappointing.The WEC study has tried to make such an analy-sis, which, however, is too sizeable and complexfor this article. But it has resulted in a number ofrecommendations for governments as these willde ne their policies and measures to address thisimportant area.

3.3 Recommendations fuel tax is an important but not a perfect in-

strument, primarily because of its impact on

competition and accessibility, as well as long-term reliability vital for investment promotion.Taxes are a particularly burdensome option fordeveloping countries and for that reason can-not be a cornerstone of a common global solu-tion. Taxes have fallen during the past ten yearsand are mostly levied on motor fuels, becausethey impact government revenues rather thanconsumer behaviour. Their real contribution toemission reduction is thus limited,

energy end-use ef ciency is important, as itfacilitates progress on all 3 As. Unfortunately,in absence of a proper analysis it is not known

how the existing programmes contribute to it.Besides, there is no signi cant emission re-duction on that account. Energy ef ciency can-not yield the desired rapid emission reductionas long as governments do not launch pro-grammes with well focused goals and moni-toring,

renewables surely help, but there are manypractical objections, such as: high costs, avail-ability, etc., which poses problems, especiallyto developing countries. Renewables may con-tribute to emission reduction, but in practice,except for countries with signi cant hydro (orgeothermal) potentials, they are not likely toopen the way to the decarbonisation of the en-ergy sector any time soon. The environmentalimpact of some renewables, biomass for ex-ample, is highly complex and should be care-fully studied,

emissions trading is highly elaborated, but ac-companied by practical problems, and at pres-ent there are no examples suggesting howmuch this measure is suitable. A proven long-term scheme is needed for emissions tradingto yield expected results. For now we are farfrom it,

abolition of subsidies on fossil fuels may be therst step in coping with climate change. How-

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avljene s razlogom i za mnoge zemlje u raz-voju su vano i teko pitanje,

regulativa i standardi su vani i ine dio svakepolitike i mjera, ali ih treba stvarati i kontro-lirati paljivije nego do sada kako bi postalizaista e kasni,

dobrovoljni ugovori, informacije i svijest o

problemu kao i drugi slini pristupi vanisu u promociji eksibilnosti i prihvatljivosti ivrlo dobro funkcioniraju u nekim zemljama.Meutim, oni nisu dovoljni sami po sebi dabi dolo do znaajnog smanjenja emisijaglobalno.

A kljuno podruje koje nije dovoljno istraeno je podruje tehnologija. Mogunosti smanjenjaemisija koristei postojee kao i tehnologije urazvoju su goleme. Postojee mogunosti trans-fera tih tehnologija od razvijenog svijeta premasvijetu u razvoju nisu adekvatne. Vie pozornosti

treba posvetiti razvitku i primjeni prikladnih teh-nologija, a razvijeni svijet mora preuzeti vodstvou ovom podruju.

3.4 ZakljuciVlade esto ignoriraju humanu i socijalnu stranuenergije i nisu uspjele svladati kompleksnostenergetskih sustava, tako da mjere smanjenjaemisija esto nisu dosegle eljeni efekt.

Pri tome treba imati u vidu da:

niti jedan energetski izvor ne moe zado-voljiti svjetske potrebe uz smanjenje emisijaistodobno. Stoga sve energetske opcije trebadrati otvorene,

slino, nema politike ili mjere koja moesama dati rjeenje ili vei dio rjeenja. Svemjere imaju svoje prednosti i mane,

nema jedinstvenog pristupa ili kratke listemjera, koje vrijede svugdje. Zemlje i regije surazliite, geografski, prema prirodnim izvori-ma, klimi i prema zrelosti (razvijenosti) sus-tava. Stoga svaka zemlja mora uvesti mjerekoje odgovaraju njenim prilikama,

e kasne, konzistentne i predvidljive politikevlada bit e potrebne da osiguraju dugoronoulaganje u ie tehnologije.

meunarodna suradnja je osnova da bi seemisije smanjile,

prioritetna podruja koja mora obuhvatitimeunarodna strategija o promjeni klime:dekarbonizacija proizvodnje elektrine en-ergije, to manji porast emisija iz transporta,razvoj prometnih alternativa bez ugljika, tenovi napor na razvoju tehnologija i njihoveprimjene.

ever, subsidies are usually introduced with areason and for many developing countries arean important and dif cult issue,

regulations and standards are important andare a part of any policies and measures, butthey should be drawn up and controlled withmore care than has been the case so far in or-

der to make them truly ef cient, voluntary contracts, information, problemawareness and other similar approaches areimportant in the promotion of exibility andacceptability and function very well in somecountries. However, they alone cannot bringabout any major emission reduction globally.

A key area not suf ciently explored is technology.Potentials for emission reduction by using the ex-isting and developing technologies are vast. Theexisting channels for the transfer of these tech-nologies from the developed to the developing

world are inadequate. More attention should bepaid to the development and application of suit-able technologies and the developed world shouldtake the lead in this eld.

3.4 ConclusionsGovernments often ignore the human and socialside of energy and have not managed to masterthe complexities of energy systems, so that theemission reduction measures often have not pro-duced the desired effect.

In this regard the following should be kept inmind:

no single energy source can meet globalneeds with emission reduction simultane-ously. Hence all options should be kept open,

likewise, there is no policy or measure whichalone can provide a solution or a greater partof the solution. All the measures have theiradvantages and disadvantages,

there is no single approach or a shortlist ofuniversally valid measures. Countries andregions differ in terms of geography, naturalresources, climate and system maturity. Thatis why each country is supposed to introducemeasures suited to its speci c conditions,

ef cient, consistent and predictable govern-ment policies will be required to ensure long-term investment in cleaner technologies,

international cooperation is a basis for emis-sions reduction,

priority areas to be tackled by the internationalclimate change strategy: decarbonisation ofelectricity generation, minimum increase intransport emissions, development of carbon-free transport alternatives, and a new effort indeveloping technologies and their application.

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3.5 Put u budunost niskog ugljikaDesetljea e biti potrebna, ak i uz primjenunaje kasnijih mjera i tehnologija, da se postignuznaajne redukcije CO2, najvie zbog visokihtrokova i vremena potrebnog za zamjenupostojee i izgradnju nove infrastrukture. PremaIEA, sljedeih 25 godina trebat e godinje 800

milijardi amerikih dolara kako bi se zadovoljilesvjetske energetske potrebe. Da bi ta investicijabila povoljna i s aspekta klimatskih promjena, jo je vei izazov, no realizacija je mogua i tokroz tri faze:

3.5.1 Faza I: Vjerodostojni ciljevi i sporiji rastemisija do 2015.Ova faza e poeti kada se postigne globalnidogovor oko smanjenja staklenikih plinova,naroito CO2. Nakon toga, napredak e ovisitio poveanju e kasnosti i smanjenju intenziteta

ugljika kod proizvodnje i potronje energije,naroito u sektoru elektrine energije. Mjeremogu ukljuivati dugorone olakice poreza naugljik s naglaskom na promociju takvih inves-ticija, potporu za proizvodnju elektrine energijetehnologijom niskog ugljika, jaanje proizvodnjeiz obnovljivih izvora energije i inteligentnih sus-tava isporuke elektrine energije, te uvoenjetehnologija istog ugljena naroito u Kini i Indiji.

U transportnom sektoru, treba obuzdati rastemisija kombinacijom mjera: tehnikih, kroze kasnost vozila, hibridna vozila i biogoriva, te

ne-tehnikih, kroz promjenu ponaanja u pro-metu, poreznu politiku, regulaciju i sl.

Isto tako vano je postii znaajno vea ulaganjau tehnoloki razvitak i njegovu primjenu. To jeujedno osnova za drugu fazu.

3.5.2 Faza II: Stabilizacija emisija do 2030.U ovoj fazi treba iskoristiti prednosti novih en-ergetskih infrastruktura i tehnolokog napret-ka, na pdruju naprednih nuklearnih elek-trana i tehnologija spremanja ugljika, kojetrebaju omoguiti koritenje fosilnog goriva uznultu emisiju.

Druge vane tehnologije za smanjenje emisija sunapredne solarne termalne tehnologije, ugrad-bene solarne elije i mikro kogeneracija. Na-dalje oekuje se napredak u tehnologiji graenjatako da bi zgrade od potroaa mogle postatiproizvoai energije. Hibridna vozila, kao i drugesline opcije, ukljuujui i biogoriva, koja nisu usukobu s proizvodnjom hrane, mogu znaajnodoprinijeti smanjenju emisija.

3.5 Route to a low-carbon futureDecades will be needed, even with application ofthe most ef cient measures and technologies, toachieve signi cant CO2 reductions, mostly due tohigh costs and the time required to replace exist-ing and build new infrastructure. According to IEA,in the next 25 years USD 800 billion a year will be

needed to meet all global energy requirements.Making this investment favourable even from thepoint of view of climate change is even a greaterchallenge, but it is possible to achieve throughthree phases.

3.5.1 Phase I: Credible goals and slower emis-sions growth to 2015This phase will start once a global consensus hasbeen reached on the reduction of greenhousegases, especially CO2. After that progress will de-pend on improved ef ciency and reduced carbon

intensity in energy production and consumption,especially in the electricity sector. The measuresmay include long-term carbon tax relief withemphasis on the promotion of respective invest-ments, support to low-carbon electricity genera-tion technology, intensi cation of power genera-tion from renewable energy sources and smartelectricity supply systems, and the introduction ofclean-coal technologies, especially in China andIndia.

In the transport sector, emissions growth shouldbe curbed through a combination of measures:

technical through vehicle ef ciency, hybrid ve-hicles and biofuels, and non-technical througha changed traf c behaviour, tax policies, regula-tions, etc.

Likewise, it is important to get more investmentin technological development and its application.That is a basis for the next stage.

3.5.2 Phase II: Emissions stabilisation to 2030In this phase advantage should be taken of newenergy infrastructures and technological ad-vancements in the eld of nuclear power plantsand carbon capture and storage technologies,which will allow zero emission fossil fuel powergeneration.

Other important emission reduction technologiesinclude advanced solar thermal technologies, so-lar cells and micro-cogeneration. Furthermore,progress is expected in construction technologiesaimed to make energy producers out of consumerbuildings. Hybrid vehicles along with related op-tions, including biofuels which will not con ictfood production, may signi cantly contribute toemission reduction.

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3.5.3 Faza III: Odrivo smanjenje emisijaKombinacija istih energetskih izvora i naprednaproizvodnja elektrine energije kao i transportaomoguit e daljnje smanjenje emisija, ali iodrivi ekonomski rast na cijelom svijetu. S vre-menom tehnologije nulte emisije CO2 zajedno snaprednim energetskim skladitima dovest e

do nastajanja post-ugljikova razdoblja. Nuklear-na fuzija i razdoblje elektro-vodikove energetikemoda e ve biti stvarnost, no to sve ovisi o ula-ganjima u razvoj i brzom transferu u primjenu.

Svi ovi napori su nuni, ako elimo emisije do2050. godine vratiti ili ak smanjiti u odno-su na dananje. Radi se o mjerama koje sukratkorono skupe, no dugorono ostvaruju do-brobit. U WEC-u se vjeruje da je energetski sek-tor u mogunosti dati pozitivan doprinos odrivojbudunosti.

4 RANJIVOST EUROPE INJENOG GOSPODARSTVA UOKOLNOSTIMA NEADEKVAT-NE OPSKRBE ENERGIJOMRazmatranje pitanja energetske sigurnosti zahti- jeva jednoznanu de niciju tog pojma. U ovomkontekstu energetska sigurnost je de niranakao neprekidna opskrba dovoljnim koliinamaenergije kako bi se podmirile ukupne potrebe,uz prihvatljive cijene pojedinih oblika energije.Poetna razmiljanja o problemu sigurnosti op-skrbe energijom su bila povezana s zikom sig-urnosti opskrbe. Dakako da je sigurnost opskrbeenergijom povezana s zikim rizikom, u mjeriu kojoj je opskrba povezana s energetskom in-frastrukturom, od proizvodne, preko transportnepa do razdjelne. Meutim, u posljednje vrijeme je briga o sigurnosti opskrbe sve vie usmjerenana gospodarstvo, odnosno na okolnosti u kojima je to gospodarstvo pogoeno poremeajima uopskrbi energijom.

Europska komisija (EC) istie da odravanje en-ergetske sigurnosti treba biti usmjereno na nes-metan razvoj gospodarstva, neprekidnu zikuraspoloivost uz prihvatljive cijene, istodobnouvaavajui i provodei brigu za okoli. Dakle,sigurnost opskrbe nije eksplicite izraena krozpoveanje energetske samodovoljnosti ili smanjenje energetske ovisnosti, nego je usmjerenak smanjenju rizika koji proizlaze iz energetskeovisnosti.

Osiguranje pouzdane energetske opskrbe jetradicionalno bilo shvaano kao neto to je uodgovornosti vlada pojedinih zemalja. Nastojei

3.5.3 Phase III: Sustainable emission reductionA combination of clean energy sources and ad-vanced electricity generation, as well as trans-port, will lead to further emission reduction plussustainable economic growth in all parts of theworld. Gradually, zero CO2 emission technologiestogether with advanced energy storage will lead

to the emergence of a post-carbon era. Nuclearfusion and electro hydrogen energy may well be-come a reality by that time, but everything will de-pend on investment in development and prompttransfer into application.

All these efforts are crucial if global CO2 emis-sions are to be returned to or below current levelsby 2050. These measures are costly in the shortrun, in the long run they bring pro t. WEC believesthat the energy sector is able to make a positivecontribution to a sustainable future.

4 VULNERABILITY OF EUROPEAND ITS ECONOMY IN THECONDITIONS OF INADEQUATEENERGY SUPPLYA discussion on the issue of energy security re-quires a clear de nition of what energy secu-rity exactly means. In this context it is de ned assteady supply of suf cient quantities of energy tocover total energy needs at acceptable prices forparticular forms of energy. Initial thinking on thatissue was linked to the physical security of sup-ply. Of course, security of energy supply is linkedto physical risks to an extent in which supply islinked to energy infrastructure, from productionthrough transport to distribution infrastructure.However, recent concerns about secure energysupply are increasingly focused on the economy,or the circumstances in which the economy is af-fected by disruptions in energy supply.

The European Commission (EC) points out that themaintenance of energy security must be focusedon unimpeded economic development an

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