End-to-end risk model for Pavia using GEM toolsCatalina Yepes Estrada

GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

End-to-end risk model for Pavia using GEM tools

Masters course on Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation

GEM Tools and models

IDCT GEM Taxonomy FF Manager OQ engineSHARE model

Building Portfolio

1255 Buildings40 Students12 Groups (by colors)

≈ 10 hours to survey 100 buildings1220 Buildings were surveyed

Mobile Android and Windows IDCT apps

• detailed per-building exposure dataset

Building Portfolio

Surveyed buildings according with the

material of the lateral load resisting system

Reinforced concrete

Masonry, unknown

Unreinforced masonry

Exposure model

16 building typologiesReplacement cost of 388 €/m2Total replacement cost ≈780 M€

Fragility and Vulnerability Functions

Fragility and Vulnerability Functions

(Ahmad et al 2010)

Fragility and Vulnerability Functions

(Ahmad et al 2010)

GEM Vulnerability Database

Hazard model from SHARE10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years

[g]

PGA ≈ 0.15g

Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator

Set of ground motion fieldsExposure model Vulnerability functions

Loss curves Loss maps

Total loss exceedance curve and Average Annual Loss (AAL)

AAL around 0.6% of the total replacement cost

Economic loss maps2%, 10% and 50% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years

< 100€

140€ - 190€

300€ - 400€

> 600€

Thousand EUR

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Through this exercise we were able to test the tools, receive feedbacks regarding features that can be improved…NEXT

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Students were able to perform Risk assessment for Pavia in appr. 2 weeks

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org