emergpharma`s chinese diabetes pharmaceutical market

Chinese DiabetesPharmaceutical Market

August 2013

19 Chapters (165 pages) analyzing Epidemiology, Pool of treated patients Market dynamics Market segmentation by type of treatment, family of products, products, marketers and

affordability Market players and their strategies Health Economics in China Impact of the reform in diabetes treatment The reimbursement system and its impact on diabetes market Market forecast 2013-2017

72 explanatory charts, tables and figures to facilitate key success factors understanding and save time

Directed and written by the reputed expert in emerging pharmaceutical markets and Head of Emergphama`s Business Intelligence Unit Jose I. Díaz

Emergpharma, consulting company founded in 2008 and specialized in pharmaceutical emerging markets is launching its

“Chinese Diabetes Pharmaceutical Market Report Outcomes 2013-2017”

– Why Glucobay keeps its position as OAD market leader despite new generation products availability and despite in most developed markets Glucobay failed to become a big player. Why it is expected to remain at least two more years as market leader

– Why Insulin market is expected to grow faster in China than in other markets, driving the market to even higher levels of growth

– Why, despite what happens in other segments, MNC’s (multinationals) dominate the diabetes market in China

– Why although it has been estimated in USD 7 bn the diabetes pharmaceutical market size in 2007, it would achieve 8 or even 9 million if some favorable conditions happens simultaneously.

– Why companies like West Pharmaceutical and other delivery suppliers have an important path to grow in China in the shadows of big Pharmaceuticals

– Where big/middle sized Asian Pharmaceutical Companies have an interesting and profitable segment to gain market share

– What is a wise strategy for second or third comers to market in diabetes China market

Some issues addressed in the “Chinese Diabetes Pharmaceutical Market Report,

Outcomes 2013-2017”:


Slides Sample

Chinese diabetes market: a fast growing segmentD

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oped

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APA

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Chin

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Chin

ese

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3%5%

12%

18%

27%Growth ForecastDifferent Pharmaceutical

Segments 2013-2017

• The diabetes market in China is expected to grow over the Pharmaceutical Market average in the country and is positioned as one of the fastest Pharmaceutical Market Segments Worldwide

• In 2012 the market exceeded USD 3 bn and is expected to achieve USD 7 bn in 2017

• Insulins segment, growing above 30% CAGR in the period 2007-2012 have surpassed by first time the non insulin market segment in size and is expected to keep its position as market driver with higher growth level than non insulin drugs between 2013 and 2017

Source: Emergpharma`s model

Market DriversWhy this market is expected to more than double sales in 5 years

Increase on the prevalence of diabetes

as consequence of more urban population

and lifestyle changes

Increase on the number of treated

patients due to more awareness on

diabetes implications

GDp per capita and Healthcare

Expenses per capita increase, growth of urban middle class

Diabetes healthcare expenses growth

and increase of its participation in

Healtcare Budget

Increased use of combined therapy

and FDC in particularTrend to treat early

and more aggresively

New drugs available (incretin market)Increased use of

insulin analogs and devices

Diabetes Market Changes 2012-2017 USD(x000.000)

Mar

ket 2

012

Incr

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Incr

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of..

.

Incr

. Tr.

co.

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ts

Mar

ket 2

017

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

3,000

7,000 800

1,000

2,700

-500

Epidemiology of diabetes in China

• In addition to 92 million of diabetics, 140 million people are living with IGT (Impaired Glucose Tolerance)

• The number of diabetics living in China is expected to achieve 130 million in 2030

• Although 85-90% of diagnosed patients are on treatment, diagnose rates are still low compared with developed countries

Patients with

Diabetes i

n the W

orld

Patients with

Diabetes i

n China

Patients diagnose

d with

diabetes in China

Patients on tr

eatment f

or diabetes i

n China

371,778

92,285

38,058 32,349

Data 2012 (x000)

2000 2010 2012 2030 E0

40

80

120

2449

92

130Diabetic adults in China

Source: IDF and World Bank

Diabetes Treatment in China

• Among diagnosed patients, 10% are on diet and exercise and 15% are not treated

• 15% of the 16 million patients treated on monotherapy are receiving only Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)

• Also 10% of patients treated in combined non insulin therapy were receiving TCM + conventional treatment

• In total, from 92 million living with diabetes in China, lesss than 27 million are receiving at least one conventional drug, while 65 million are not diagnosed, not treated, treated on diet and exercise or with traditional medicinal chinese herbal products

• Only 11% of diabetics in China achieve targets according to international guidelines

54,227

5,70

9

3,23

5

16,175

8,08

7 3,882 970

Diabetes Patients China 2012 (x000)

Undiagnosed Diagnosed but UntreatedDiet and Exercise MonotherapyCombined non insulin Insulin AloneInsulin combined


Differences in treatment costs

• The upper 5% of patients whose treatment was on average above 500 $ per year represent 36% of the total value of the market

• The second category including 20% of patient on treatment represents slightly less, 33% of all

• The lowest category, including 75% of all patients represents in monetary terms just 31%

Patient treated more than 500 US $;

1,391

Patient treated from 100 to 500 $; 5,810

Patient treated less than

100 $; 21,268

Patient Segments by yearly cost of treatment (x000)

More than 500$36%

100-500 $33%

< 100 $31%

Segment Sizes %Values

Every 1% of patients on monotherapy with old products switching to dpp4 would represent aprox 300 million extra sales (10% of diabetes market in 2012)


Diab-market Monotherapy Dynamics 2012

16.000.000patients

Diet and Exercise

New diagnosed

(Disease Progression)

Combination

Insulin

+2.000.000 / year -1.650.000 / year

Among 16 million patients in monotherapy, only 3.65 million are

expected to change treatment per year

Switch to other monotherapy < 5%


Non insulin Market (values)

• Contrary to other markets, in China Glucobay (acarbose) is market leader in the non insulins

• 89% of non insulin products are “old generation” will many generics in the market, while new families represent less than 10%

• It is expected that the situation will change in the forthcoming years with an important penetration of Dpp4

• TZDs are reducing their market share due to the important safety concerns experienced worldwide, Avandia family in particular

Biguanides16%

Alfa glucosidase40%

Glinides17%

Sulfonilureas16%

TZDs6%

increatin (Dpp4, GLP-1)

2%Natural Med

3%

Source: Emergpharma`s model based on IMS data, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk published data and Emergpharma`s patient flow

Diabetes Product Market Leaders 2012 (Values)

• Six products represent 2/3 of all market sales

• Among them, 4 are manufactured by the market leader Novo

• Among the 3 insulin market leaders, Lantus and Novomix are comparatively expensive products, and both are growing above the market, near 30% in 2012

• In the forecasted scenario, Novorapid and Levemir will surpase the 100 million $ sales in the next 3-4 years

• The incretin market (GLP-1 agonists and DPP4 agonists) grew nearly 70% in 2012 and is expected to grow even more in 2013-2017 fueled by new products availability and stronger penetration of Januvia and Victoza

Rest of products

37%Novo Human Insulin

17%

Glucobay16%

Novomix9%

Lantus8%

Novonorm7%

Glucophage6%

Source: Emergpharma`s model based on IMS data, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk published data and Emergpharma`s patient flow

The Healthcare Reform in China

• Chinese Government invested USD 180 billion in healthcare improvements between 2009 and 2011

• More than 95% of citizens now have some form of healthcare coverage and the government hast turned to improving the coverage for major diseases

• The government is turning to cost containment at many levels to balance the healthcare budget

• The current Essential Drug List (EDL) has been expanded to 497 drugs this year (2013). However, only old diabetes products are included in this list

Basic healthcareTo all citizens

Improved basic medical infrastructure

Expansion of public haelth

serivice programs

Separated hospital

supervision and remove

drug mark up

Expansion of medical insurance coverage

Establishment of a National Essential Drug List

Source: Novo Nordisk presentation to investors April 2013


A unique tool to understand one of the fastest growth segments on the

Global Pharmaceutical Market

Reasons to buy

1. The opportunity– Updated information including data collected in 2013

2. The methodology– Use of mathematic model and Montecarlo simulations to assess outcomes consistency

3. The company– Use of Emergpharmalinks, a network with more than 16.000 executives on the

Pharmaceutical Industry to verify and expand information

4. The author– More than 20 years experience in the Pharmaceutical Industry, broad experience in

emerging and diabetes markets

5. Report structure– Four different presentations to assess different target needs

6. Report presentation and reimbursement warranty– A 30` free of charge presentation by Videoconference is available at request– Company reimbursement warranty in case the report doesn`t meet promised quality

standards

•Emergpharma is a worldwide operating company founded in 2008 specialized in strategic consulting services for pharmaceutical companies with special focus on Emerging Markets. •Our highly specialized network Emergpharmalinks ensures a direct contact with more than 16.000 executives in 102 countries, covering from global and local general management to a broad range of senior executives of pharmaceutical, medical devices, distributor and biotech companies as well as most reputed executive search companies in the world.

•Emergpharma Business Intelligence is a highly specialized division delivering strategic analysis and market research on/about companies, geographies and market segments within the Global Pharmaceutical Emerging Market.

Jose I. Diaz has developed his professional career in market research, commercial and marketing international operations in the Pharmaceutical Industry.

He participated as Marketing Director in the launch of Amaryl M, Lantus and Apidra in many Asian and Latin American countries as part of the Intercontinental Team in Sanofi-Aventis.

EmergpharmalinksProfessional Network

+16.000 executives

As consultant expert he has worked for some of the leading companies in diabetes, infectious diseases and cardiovascular: GKS, Roche, Merck and Abbott among others.

Report`s MethodologyEpidemiology • Diabetic people in China

• Patients on treatment

Patients flow• Type of therapy (diet/exercise,

TCM,mono, combo, insulin)• Market Dynamics

(initiation/add –on/switch)

Product sales • Product Market Share • Unitary Costs• Lost of treatment

Forecast model

• Epidemiology data from International Sources

• Treatment growth based on last years trend

• Growth by segment based on trends and addition of new comers

• Secondary analysis of Health Expenditures to show consistency

• Epidemiology data of prevalence were obtained from NEJM 2011 (used by IDF and Word Bank)

• Split of patients by type of treatment has been modeled to meet consistency parameters using published statistics as approximate initial sources and building the final ones by Montecarlo simulations

• Product shares have been taken from published and internal reports

• Treatment costs has been taken from published and in-company reports

• Lost of yearly treatment (lack of compliance or adherence…) in the model has been adjusted using data from other similar surveys (15%-20%)

• The mathematic model outcomes have shown consistency with Companies published results in more than 90%

• Forecasted diabetes market has been double checked with a global analysis of health expenditures evolution and feasible trends showing a remarkable level of consistency.

Report Structure

• Because same information may not be equally relevant for every reader, we have designed Emergpharma`s Chinese Diabetes Market Report in four complementary formats:– Full text: for those who need a complete description of methodology,

terminology and will be interested to “go in depth” on the data. In total, 19 complete chapters covering specific topics with 72 charts and figures

– Bookxecutive: only 20 pages summary for those who can dedicate one hour to get the most relevant elements.

– Slide Basics: the core findings in 25 selected slides with comment for those who may require preparing a visual presentation and valuate time savings

– Executive summary: 50 top findings in just 4 pages, for a short briefing or a 5 minutes conversation in the elevator.

Chapters

1. Executive Summary2. Market Definition3. Methodology and mathematic

model4. Diabetes Epidemiology5. Diabetes Patients Universe6. Socio-Health-Economic

Environment in China and its impact in diabetes care

7. Chinese pharmaceutical market overview

8. Chinese diabetes market I: Overall environment

9. Chinese diabetes market II: Growth Drivers

10. Chinese diabetes market III: Treatment. Patients segments

11. Chinese diabetes market IV: Market Dynamics

12.Chinese diabetes market V: Products13. Chinese diabetes market VI: Last

Stage Pipeline14. Chinese diabetes market VII: Players

(MNC’s and Local)15. Chinese diabetes market VIII:

Prescribers16.Chinese diabetes market VIII: Market

Segments by cost of treatment17.Chinese diabetes market IX:

Diabetes in the Chinese Healthcare System

18. Chinese diabetes market X: Market Forecast

19. Conclusions20. Sources / References21. Figures and charts

Price & Purchase Conditions

• The price for the 4 versions (Bookxecutive, Slides Presentation, Executive Summary and Full text) of the report are:– Single copy (pdf+USB): USD 2.499– Multiple users copy: USD 7.000

• A VC presentation free of charge is available on demand. Please write to:– [email protected]

• A Reimbursement Warranty is applicable if the Report doesn`t meet promised outcome and quality

• Special discount are available for students and non-profit organizations. Please ask for your personal conditions

mailto:[email protected]

Contact Details

Please, ask for a copy of contents and characteristics of this report:

• By email:– [email protected]

• By telephone– Mobile +66 832099048 (Thailand)

• By skype (with previous appointment)– Ignacio.diaz2908

• Company website:– www.emergpharma.com

mailto:[email protected]

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